Goffs Thyestes H'cap S'chase GOWRAN PARK Thursday, 26th January

Prince De Beauchene interesting after his fine debut for the yard in 5th last time out..

Quel Esprit off 150 ? Probably likely to run in a graded chase somewhere ..

Jack The Bus, my old mate had 2 good wins on this fella.
At 25s certainly should give run for your money e/w ,will wait bit tbc, but seemed to be plan after Sundays win

he'll be worse off at the weights from their previous run though steveo ..

Becauseicouldntsee has a big race in him off that kind of mark.

LADBROKES ANTEPOST MARKETS – 17.01.12



Thyestes Chase

3m, Gowran Park, Thursday

9 Beautiful Sound, 9 On His Own, 10 Prince De Beauchene, 10 Quel Esprit, 10 Seabass, 10 Treacle, 12 Alpha Ridge, 14 Glam Gerry, 16 Adams Island, 16 Arklow Ger, 16 Head Of The Posse, 16 Leanne, 16 Lochan Lacha, 16 Medical Card, 16 Our Monty, 16 Rivage Dor, 16 Shakervilz, 16 Smokin Aces, 16 Son Amix, 16 Stephanie Kate, 16 The Bishop Looney, 20 (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

Trends for the past 10 runnings below (http://tinyurl.com/7o6z6nx):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 2-2-17
8yo: 3-7-34
9yo: 4-10-43
10yo: 1-5-41
11yo+: 0-3-24
Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 9-19-92, which compares well to horses aged 10+: 1-8-65.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 2-13-68
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 8-14-91
Horses carrying less than 10-9 have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race, though the first 4 home in 2011 all carried 10-10 or more.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 3-13-70
Horses rated 129 or lower: 7-14-89
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 or lower, however in recent years the trends has pointed towards higher rated runners, with 4 of the last 5 winners being rated 125+.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas
9 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last two completed starts
9 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles
8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer chases
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 5 or less handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in previous year's race)
8 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade C or higher chase

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Siegemaster): P56109 (1-0-6)
Cork National winner (The Bishop Looney): 13P (1-1-3)
Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Chase to run in this: 923P3P36 (0-4-8)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (Wicklow Lad): 2 (0-1-1)
Batterstown H'cap Chase winner (Smoking Aces): 43 (0-1-2)
Troytown Handicap Chase winner (Jack The Bus): 288 (0-1-3)
Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase winner (Seabass): 60 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing 9FF8
2 of 10 (2 of last 5) ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial Chase, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in the Troytown, finishing 04
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish National, finishing 7F

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-6-19) has saddled 1 winner and 5 places in the past 5 years and has trained 3 winners since 2000.
Dessie Hughes (1-3-4) has a very strong record in this, with his 4 four runners producing 1 winners (Siegemaster last year) and 3 places.
Tony Martin (1-2-5) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 5 runners in this.
Charlie Swan (1-0-4) and James Mangan (1-0-4) have each trained 1 of the last 10 winners.
Paul Nolan (0-3-7) has seen 3 of his 7 runners make the places since 2002.

Running Style
3 of 10 winners led/made all
2 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division
2 of 10 winners were held up towards rear

Price
No strong trends on the prices with 4 of the last 5 have gone off 16/1 or bigger but the previous 5 winners all going off at 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-5-11) have gained just 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 3.42.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 7 to 9
•    Carrying 10-9 or less
•    Officially rated 125 or higher
•    Run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown)
•    Won or placed on one or both of last 2 starts
•    Ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial or Paddy Power Chase in December
•    Has won over 3M+
•    Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases
•    First or second season chaser (or placed in last year’s race)
•    Previously won or placed in a Grade C or better chase
•    Trained by Willie Mullins, Tony Martin or Dessie Hughes

Dessie Hughes (1-3-4) has a very strong record in this, with his 4 four runners producing 1 winners (Siegemaster last year) and 3 places.

Western Charmer to set a marker before romping home in the National!!

On His Own (8) , Seabass (8) , Prince De Beauchene (9) , Glam Gerry (14) , Rivage Dor (14) , Start Me Up (14) , Stephanie Kate (14) , Adams Island (16) , Jack The Bus (16) , Leanne (16) , Shakervilz (16) , Some Target (16) , Lochan Lacha (20) , Marlay Park (20) , Smoking Aces (20) , Tinakellylad (20) , Tullintain (20) , Ad Idem (25) , Becauseicouldntsee (25) , Paddy Pub (25)  - Others  25 or more


9 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles

HOW MANY FIT THIS STAT ?

several have won over 3 ..

i'd fancy Some Target if he could jump ..

like start me up looks to have been brought along nice and quietly trip too short last time nice prep will do for me

Prince De Beachene taken out .. really puzzles me why Mullins puts all these entries in and then withdraws them. I came within a gnats c0ck of backing that!

Hope you took the 14/1, CMIYC!

Jack The Bus on at 25s e/w, hopefully can run big race as cut up a little as expected re Mullins gang.

1  P228- Ad Idem 8, 11-7 (31) (Mrs A F Mee & T J Cunningham) Rated 144 Mrs Pauline Gavin Andrew J McNamara 20/1
2  2230- Western Charmer 10, 11-6(Cheekpiece) (31) (D T Hughes) Rated 143 D T Hughes D J Condon 25/1
3  P130- Tharawaat 7, 11-3(Tonguestrap) (61) (Gigginstown House Stud) Rated 140 Gordon Elliott D N Russell 25/1
4  7-703- Shakervilz 9, 10-13 (30) (Mrs J M Mullins) Rated 136 W P Mullins R Walsh 8/1
5  P24U- Some Target 8, 10-10 (31) (Captain Conflict Syndicate) Rated 133 W P Mullins P Townend 8/1
6  51-7-1 Jack The Bus 12, 10-9(Incl 7Penalty (12) (Seamus Murphy) Rated 132 Peter Casey A E Lynch 8/1
7  2P53- Adams Island 8, 10-7 (29) (Naughty Lads Syndicate) Rated 130 Paul Nolan B J Geraghty 8/1
8  0049- Bob Lingo 10, 10-6 (31) (John P McManus) Rated 129 Thomas Mullins M P Walsh 33/1
9  3130- Rivage D'Or 7, 10-6(Tonguestrap) (31) (Gigginstown House Stud) Rated 129 D T Hughes B J Cooper 8/1
10  6110- The Bishop Looney 8, 10-6 (31) (Looney Bishop Syndicate) Rated 129 T J Nagle Jr T J Doyle 14/1
11  5671- Glam Gerry 8, 10-5 (29) (Barry Connell) Rated 128 C A Murphy B Hayes (7) 8/1
12  6513- Start Me Up 8, 10-5 (31) (Gigginstown House Stud) Rated 128 C F Swan B R Dalton (7) 8/1
13  8090- Telenor 9, 10-5(Tonguestrap)(Cheekpiece) (31) (Mrs P J Conway) Rated 128 J T R Dreaper E J O'Connell 40/1
14  BPP-2 Tinakellylad 8, 10-4 (25) (Ms B Twomey) Rated 127 M F Morris A P Heskin (5) 16/1
15  53P0- Jadanli 10, 10-3 (31) (E Gilligan) Rated 126 Paul John Gilligan R C Colgan 50/1
16  4P1B- On His Own 8, 10-2 (31) (Graham Wylie & Andrea Wylie) Rated 125 W P Mullins D J Casey 8/1
17  3960- Quadrillon 8, 10-2 (31) (Mrs M McMahon) Rated 125 W P Mullins D E Mullins 25/1
18  990-4 Paddy Pub 9, 10-0 (B) (26) (Big Five Syndicate) Rated 123 Kieran Purcell P F Mangan (3) 20/1


RESERVES

19  PU62- Tullintain 9, 10-0(Tonguestrap) (31) (Mrs Mary Tyner) Rated 123 Robert Tyner P T Enright 20/1
20  F222- Stephanie Kate 6, 10-0 (29) (Philip J Reynolds) Rated 123 C F Swan 16/1
21  3410- Smoking Aces 8, 10-0 (B) (31) (John P McManus) Rated 123 T J Taaffe 16/1

"won (a chase) over at least 3 miles"

TAKE YOUR PICK.....My 3...

3  P130- Tharawaat 7, 11-3(Tonguestrap) (61) (Gigginstown House Stud) Rated 140 Gordon Elliott D N Russell 25/1
6  51-7-1 Jack The Bus 12, 10-9(Incl 7Penalty (12) (Seamus Murphy) Rated 132 Peter Casey A E Lynch 8/1
7  2P53- Adams Island 8, 10-7 (29) (Naughty Lads Syndicate) Rated 130 Paul Nolan B J Geraghty 8/1
10  6110- The Bishop Looney 8, 10-6 (31) (Looney Bishop Syndicate) Rated 129 T J Nagle Jr T J Doyle 14/1
12  6513- Start Me Up 8, 10-5 (31) (Gigginstown House Stud) Rated 128 C F Swan B R Dalton (7) 8/1
13  8090- Telenor 9, 10-5(Tonguestrap)(Cheekpiece) (31) (Mrs P J Conway) Rated 128 J T R Dreaper E J O'Connell 40/1
15  53P0- Jadanli 10, 10-3 (31) (E Gilligan) Rated 126 Paul John Gilligan R C Colgan 50/1
16  4P1B- On His Own 8, 10-2 (31) (Graham Wylie & Andrea Wylie) Rated 125 W P Mullins D J Casey 8/1
18  990-4 Paddy Pub 9, 10-0 (B) (26) (Big Five Syndicate) Rated 123 Kieran Purcell P F Mangan (3) 20/1

Take Ad Idem (with a short LIR) and Adams Island against the field.

By Richard Forristal


Thursday January 26 2012

The full effect of yesterday's rainfall on the ground at Gowran Park won't really be known until racing gets under way this afternoon, but it's safe to assume that the inaugural running of the Thyestes Chase under Goffs sponsorship will not be for the faint-hearted.

A maximum field of 18 goes to post for the prestigious three-mile handicap, so a thorough test is guaranteed. In the last 10 years, only Dessie Hughes' 2011 winner Siegemaster has lumped more than 11st to victory, and the prevailing conditions will again make life very difficult for those in that bracket, namely Ad Idem, Western Charmer and Tharawaat.

As well as Western Charmer, Hughes saddles Rivage D'Or in his bid to secure back-to-back victories in the €52,000 showpiece. Unplaced on much drier going in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown after Christmas, the mud-lover is handicapped to go close if he can recapture his very best form in the hands of Bryan Cooper.

Of Willie Mullins' four runners, Paul Townend's mount Some Target appeals as another each-way prospect, while Mouse Morris' Tinakellylad could belie long odds to have a say on the back of a narrow defeat at Cork. Fancied for the win, however, is Glam Gerry.

Sporting Barry Connell's yellow silks for Colm Murphy, the relatively lightly raced eight-year-old recovered from numerous blunders to run out an impressive eight-length winner on his handicap bow over the bigger obstacles at Leopardstown.

Glam Gerry has gone up no less than 20lb for that, but he's sure to have learned from the experience and in Brian Hayes he has the assistance of probably the best 7lb claimer around.

Murphy's only other runner on the card is Voler La Vedette in the Galmoy Hurdle. Faced with the prospect of taking on the mighty Hurricane Fly on good ground in Sunday's Champion Hurdle, the Wexford handler opted to let his classy mare run here instead.

There is no avoiding the Mullins bandwagon, though, as his Zaidpour now provides the main threat to Voler La Vedette, which advertised her prowess over today's three-mile trip at Leopardstown. A perfectly respectable seventh behind Al Ferof on his final outing last term, Mullins' Aga Khan-bred gelding hacked up in two starts before Christmas.

Overall, the mare probably has the stronger form in the book, and Zaidpour must concede 7lb to her now. That said, it's hard to see where the pace will come from, so there is the potential for this to be a tactical event.

Should that prove to be the case, Zaidpour may be better equipped to cope. He is a straightforward sort with a potent turn of foot, and it would be no surprise if the 25/1 that can be had about him for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham has disappeared by the close of play.

The champion trainer might also collect with Gorgeous Sixty and Morning Royalty. While Moscow Mannon is a formidable opponent in the bumper, Morning Royalty looked a smart prospect when sluicing up by 17 lengths at Punchestown in December.

We know less about Gorgeous Sixty, a French import that runs in the PJ Foley Memorial Hurdle under Ruby Walsh. Arnaud and In Bloom both won nicely on their hurdling debuts, while Burrenbridge Lad and One Cool Shabra are reliable yardsticks.

Gorgeous Sixty will need to be pretty useful to fend off that lot, but she represents the increasingly powerful Rich Ricci here, having obliged by 10 lengths on her second hurdle start at Auteuil in September. It would be no surprise to see her land the spoils.

- Richard Forristal