So the Fact that PC clouted the 1st and we have no idea how that may have affected the horse dont matter??

Well it does when taking this form as the reason a horse is 5/2 fav for the Arkle,and again i say,given the same scenario why could CC and AF not win that race just as well??

of course he did not lose 16 lenghts at it.The point is we have no idea how it affected the horse,who knows how a horse will react the 1st time it happens to him.Maybe he was hurting somewhere or it had a psychological affect,we just dont know,but whatever the reason its pretty obvious PC did not run his race,well it is to me anyway.
And the price of SS is largely based on that,and a bit of connections hype probably as well.

The thread is also about whether or not you think 5/2 is a fair price. Not is he deserved favourite, or has he proiduced the best form.

To be fair though I haven't been making laughable comments. I haven't been knocking other peoples selections & I haven't been describing races as "egg & spoon races". All I have done is state why I think Sprinter Sacre is a good horse and given reasoning behind it. I have acknowledged PC's mistake at the first and I wouldn't totally write off PC having an off day. Even so he will need to improve a huge amount and for me the reason he lost by 16 lengths is because he was punished by a faster more athletic horse.

I have refrained from really talking about Al Ferof because I like him as a horse & I'm not one for knocking decent horses. But please explain how Al Ferof on his 2nd start over fences could have beaten Peddlers Cross 16 lengths on the bridle around Kempton? He beat For Non Stop by a small margin and had to work hard to do so. This was at Sandown which by the comments I have read so far should suit him down to the ground if he's going to fly up this dreaded hill. That horse has subsequently been beaten easily by Cue Card giving weight & making multiple errors.

Apologies if I am missing something very obvious but feel free to explain but please.. Try not to bring horse psychology or ifs buts & maybe's into it as that will make me laugh again.

I havent been kocking other peoples selections either? Can you point out my 'laughable' comments?

You seem unable to accept anyone elses point of view. I have accepted that its quite possible that Wayward Lad form was top class, and I also accept SS is a worthy fav for the race. My asserion is that AF should not be three times the price of SS. If you think thats laughable then good luck to you.

AF beat him fair and square over hurdles. He looks a natural chaser, which means SS is going to have to have found alot of improvement to beat him in the Arkle. AF isnt a flashy horse, he is workmanlike. Its hard to know how far he could beat horses by. I think he is a bit lazy and hitting the front so soon at Sandown didnt really suit him. He would be highly unlikely to beat PC that far as that isnt his running style. But we are guesing at how good that form is.

I dont think you really diagree with what I'm saying, you just seem a bit argumentative.

I'll leave you to it now. To clairify, I think SS is a worthy fav, and has produced the best form in the race. But doesnt deserve to be 5/2 fav or AF be 3 times his price.

SS was a general 5/2, 11/4 shot straight after the race, he hasn't shortenend dramatically after Barry was talking about him after the race.

Mr Eboue, you cant get 7/1 in several places for AF.

And as an SS backer I am still considering a saver on him, fwiw, but just want to see IF he will run in the VC Chase in two weeks.

I can understand why there was an immediate reaction in the prices for the Arkle after SS beat Peddlers so easily but whilst Peddlers has shortened up again, the SS price has been pretty solid at around 5/2.  In fairness, if Jason Maguire had really gone for Peddlers after the 2nd last he may have got to within 5 lengths or so, but he knew he was beat and clearly accepted that there are bigger fish to fry later on. 

Sprinter Sacre on paper has produced the best piece of form in relation to the Arkle.  But other things definitely have to be considered, such as the fact that Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof have both shown superior form at Cheltenham and imo neither have confirmed as of yet that they are better hurdlers than chasers.  Also, how many winners of the Wayward Lad since it was made an Arkle trial in 2000 have gone on to place never mind win the Arkle.  Definitely no winners and I can't think of a placed horse either.  In fact I think only Fondmort has gone on to actually record a Festival win and that was in the Ryanair.  It is similar statistics for the Feltham in relation to the RSA.  Kempton form just does not stand up at Cheltenham that well.

I wouldn't want to say for certain how close Peddlers Cross was to his true form at Kempton. The mistake at the first obviously wouldn't of helped but I am leaning towards believeing what i saw for a few reasons. Firstly because I didn't think PC would be suited to the demands of the race before the race and therefore in a way I was unsurprised to see him beaten so far. Secondly, because of the visual impression Sprinter Sacre left me with, at some fences he was breathtaking and at the ones he wasn't he looked very clever and assured. I would have to throw the time of the race in there even though I don't particularly pay too much attention to times in NH racing. To those confident PC was along way below his best I would be interested to hear how they assess his chances now in the Arkle?
Sir-arry, strongly agree that Kempton form is not to be taken too seriously in relation to Cheltenham, in that regard I guess our main difference of opinion is how we rate his Supreme run and how much he will of learned from that experience.
Talking of laughable comments, I had to have a small chuckle at the assertion that Paul Nicholls would enjoy being out of the spotlight!

Should say, you can get 7/1. Typo.

My what a volatile thread this is!

I wouldnt back SS at 5/2 but wouldnt lay him either so price is fair enough for me.

Any price with double figures for Cue Card is my idea of value though at present

Yep wouldn't disagree Rod. I think you can make a case for Menorah at 14/1 aswell.

There are a few horses who look good prices atm.

Barnesy,
I aint a PC backer,but if i were i would not be tearing up my betting slip just yet.
His hurdles form at the corse is top class,hes had 3 chases 2 of which he jumped really well,and the 3rd he made a bad mistake and did not run his race.
If he turns up on the day and jumps well hes a big threat imo,as are 3 maybe 4 others.

Yeh,a strong pace it would have been a distance!!

Dont we just love it!!

Now that it is pocket talk Budd.

Tell you what,theres going to be some fun on here after the race,eating the humble pie!!

the good thing is, everyone has a strong opinion about their fancy and nothing anyone says will rock them. cheers.

^ Agree completely with this. Nobody is knocking Sprinter Sacre - just his price.

Also wanted to add my agreement to the point made earlier that the 16 lengths is a red herring. Peddlers could clearly have got a good deal closer if asked for everything but Maguire sensibly eased off him when beaten.

That is exactly how I feel. I love the horse.... Which fan of the game doesnt?

I've laid him tinkler. Quite happy to have Al Ferof, Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Cue Card and all the others running for me! Its the best Arkle I can remember in a long, long time.