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If HF dosen't turn up then they are both in the mix, but tbh it would have to be a poor Champion Hurdle for either to win - though barring HF it does look decidely average this year so I wouldn't rip up your antepost tickets just yet.
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Binocular is clearly a horse that is very hard to keep right for any length of time. As well as countless niggling injuries he has had allergic reactions, back spasms etc... I would be inclined to think there is just something physiologically abnormal about him and as such that is why he tends to be in and out, at least in terms of showing flashes of brilliance around generally disappointing efforts.
For that reason you could never weigh in too heavily on him, in my opinion, but for the same reason, he is always worth an interest at double figure prices because I do still believe the ability is there. It's just whether or not his body is right when the big day comes. That said, I doubt even a peak form Binocular could live with the Hurricane but he is of course another one that isn't the easiest to train so to bank on him arriving in great nick in mid-March is no safe bet either. |
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I don't think the race suited ROR and that he ran well. Come cheltenham on G/s I'd be surprised if he didn't finish in front of Binocular and apart from HF he has as good a chance as any.
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He may not be CH class but for me running Binocular to a head finish is a step-up from last time out at Newbury off 145. And this was despite hitting the last hurdle. After that he was half a length down but by the finish line had closed to a head, so he did at least show his ability to battle back.
He needs to progress obviously but he is and think Cheltenham will suit better. |
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Binocular is clearly not the same horse he was when he won the Champion. Indeed he was much more impressive in the last Christmas Hurdle than this one. IMO he was a stone plus off his best today. However, the Champion is increasingly looking like a one horse race. But if that horse doesn't turn up, it could be very competetive, if a weak renewal.
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Binocular beat Rock On Ruby by a neck in a thrilling renewal of the Grade One williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Nicky Henderson's seven-year-old was bidding for a second win in the race this year as he won last season's delayed contest in January and he was well-backed to do so, going off the 5/4 favourite. Yet backers were made to sweat as Rock On Ruby looked the most likely to prevail until a mistake at the final flight checked his rhythm ever so slightly. It was enough for champion jockey AP McCoy to get a winning tune out of Binocular who took it up in the closing stages and hung on from a rallying Rock On Ruby. Overturn took them along but he was beaten in the home straight and was eight lengths behind in third at the line. Sky Bet cut Binocular and Rock On Ruby to 10/1 from 14s for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. McCoy said: "It was great he won and full credit to Rock On Ruby as he's an improving horse and took it up to him. "It was brilliant he won, but I just feel he's a long way off the horse that won the Champion Hurdle. "He's got plenty of issues and problems and whether it's stopping him from fulfilling his real potential I don't know. "He's inclined not to race as keenly as he did before, but I was just disappointed he wasn't giving me the same feel he has in the past." Henderson said: "He's still got a bit to find, even though he has done it well and I am chuffed to bits with him. "AP (McCoy) said, he was half hoping the horse would be off the bridle going down the back because they would go so quick and that is the way it turned out. "When he really does jump he is terrific and he winged the last, although it took him time to get there. "Fair play to him, he has beaten Overturn far enough today but you have to keep piling the work into him so I still think there is room for improvement. "I was talking to JP (McManus, owner) the other day and we really do want to campaign the horse this season. "We might dodge the Sandown race (Contenders Hurdle) but I certainly hope to give him another run somewhere before the Champion Hurdle." Paul Nicholls said of Rock On Ruby: "I just wish I could get him hurdling a bit more sharply, but it was still a great race. "I think Cheltenham will suit him a bit better. "I don't know what I'll do, whether I'll find another race somewhere, but I've got to find options for Zarkandar and Brampour too. Maybe we'll run all three (in the Champion)." Beryl McCain, representing her son, Donald, said of Overturn: "He has run another cracker. I'm not sure what Donald will do with him but he might have a bit of a break now as he has been quite busy." |
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Think all should take their chance but I struggle to see any of them quite having the speed or class required to win a CH. Binocular not the same horse of old and I was disappointed to see all of them so hard at work so far out. Grandouet would have pissed up in that today.
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Having an interest in ROR my reaction was of disappointment, then i see he has shortened up. Will need to improve a fair bit and prefer Cheltenham to even make the frame. Binocular is an enigma and APs comments afterwards hardly inspire confidence in either of them.
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ROR might improve for a very fast pace that big handicap at newbury looks ideal
strangely you don't always get it in the CH though |
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Am I th only person who thinks McCoy is taking the company line here?
The way he spoke you'd imagine he'd just got beaten, not pluckily held off a top class animal in a thriller. What was that about Binocular's owner being abit of a punter? Thought neither animal harmed their credentials there, quite the opposite. They beat Overturn 8l there, Grandouet beat him 4l. I'd take either of those two against Grandouet any day. |
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Fair point jar, it wouldn't be a new trick screwing the punters over with this animal.
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I'm a huge Binocular fan and have been from the start but I'm not kidding myself. He's not the horse of old. Also a big fan of Rock On Ruby as I've followed him from his bumper days. The race today was in the low 160's. A horse with any kind of speed/class needed to run well in the CH would have hosed up off of Overturn's pace. He literally set the race up like a pacemaker before fading. Grandouet would have walked this race imo.
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Grandouet getting 4lb from Overturn and beat him 4 lengths does not scream to me he would have walked it yesterday.
Hes an improving horse for sure but has had only 1 run against opposition that might turn up in the CH,and i dont see Overturn or Brampour as reasons to say hes better than Bino or ROR. Would not dismiss either horse,particularly e/w, and lets face it we have doubts about HF,Spirit and Zark. |
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Yeah, other than those 3 you mention all these horses are right in the mix
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Jair, thought exactly the same thing at the time. Reminded me of how he spoke after that infamous race at Sandown, not last season but the season before, when Bino was going to be ruled out due to back problems etc.
Listening to APMcoy is a very dangerous game imo. NJH seemed more positive, fwiw. |
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agree with whats been said by jair & judo....defo think ap had a price in mind for jp @ the festival with his comments...
would,nt beat fly...but who knows with that one....and after that its very open. |
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Sounds like Nicholls thinks ROR is his No.1 hope for March,imo.
At the start of the season, Zarkandar was obviously my leading contender for the Champion Hurdle. But we have been lucky enough to have Rock On Ruby and, to a lesser extent, Brampour confirm themselves as contenders for the race during the season. So it is very heartening that we have three possibles for the Champion Hurdle, the race that has so far eluded me that I most want to win. Who knows, Rock On Ruby may have been far shorter in the betting (he is currently 14 on Betfair) had he jumped the final flight cleanly in the Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day. But in any event you have to be thrilled with his neck second to Binocular there, with a further 8 lengths back to such a good yardstick in Overturn. He has come a long way in his two runs this season, and we know Cheltenham suits him well. The current plan is to go straight to the Festival with him. |
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It doesn't look great form to me Sint. Binocular looks a stone plus off his carerr best (and nowhere near as good as in the last Christmas Hurdle). Overturn is a tough and adnmirable horse but surely needs a rest after a series of hard races in quick succession (with this being the 2nd or 3rd afterthought race).
I'm sure RoR can improve but he'll have to, and he probably won't have Ruby at the Festival. And much as I admire Nicholls as a magnificnt trainer of steeplechasers, I have far less belief in his hurdlers. |
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ROR is out of novice company though Strontium. If he was beating the best he'd not be a 10/1 chance.
I agree Bino does not look at his best this season. And I also agree Overturn could do with a break. But with each run this season ROR has made a step forwards and the handicapper agrees. If he does the same again on his next run he'll be right in the mix. I think it is very interesting that Nicholls has decided to go straight to Cheltenham with him now. I suspect in the interim ROR will be given tons and tons of schooling to brush up his hurdling (like Nicholls did with Prospect Wells) and he'll ready to do his best in March. |
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That all fair and he's a sporting each way bet in an open looking race (if HF doesn't show or suffers from his dodgy prep).
If we speculate and say the Fly doesn't show up, who do you think Ruby would pick to ride? I think probably he'd go for Thousand Stars. |
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Would TS run though? After his last run i would have thought hes more likely to go WH,although i take on board HF being out would leave the yard without a runner probably.
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if HR..were not to show...i'm sure connections would rather have a go @ the champion....than take on BB in the WH..
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See what you say,but i just feel he aint quick enough for a Churdle,and 3m may well be better for him.
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yeah..i'm still baffled as to why he did'nt make it the other day...or could he not go with the pace....it did'nt look particularly strong...but i have'nt checked any times...
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Strontium, should HF not make the gig, there is no doubt in my mind as to who Ruby would choose to ride. He'd ride ROR. Thousand Stars, whilst he has developed into a top class racehorse, has had 26 starts over hurdles, winning 6, and is more exposed than Jordan on a Saturday night. There is nothing more to come from him. IMO.
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Oscars Well (a bit like Wishful Thinking) seems to have forgotten how to settle, and runs with the choke out all the way (high head carriage as well). Still jumps ,travels and quickens like a top horse but because he is using himself too much he just isn't getting home in his races.
He has won over 2m4f and, despite being too keen, he was in the lead until the last flight in the Neptune over 2m5f so stamina shouldn't really be an issue over 2m if they get him to settle. If he can be taught to be more tractable, maybe the faster run race will help as well, I think he still has an excellent e/w chance. |
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So do i Uncle,the CH could well see him produce a top performance that imo hes well capable of.
Race should suit him. |
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anyone fancy a late charge for the arkle for rock on ruby? if al ferof goes cc maybe nicholls will be tempted to switch to chasing as that was originally the plan this season anyway and zarkandar and celestial halo may make up his ch team.
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budd if rock on ruby cant beat binocular around xmas time, he sure aint going to beat him come the festival
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exactly denman thats why i think they are better of sending him down arkle route. bred for chasing and has a good mix of speed and stamina surely walsh would ride if no al ferof
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Have a word with yourselves please. ROR just got beat half a lenght in a Grade 1 hurdle after making a mess of the last flight and on a track which does not play to his strenghts. Why would they abort a crack at the Champion Hurdle and go over fences now ??
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denman,i was referring to Oscars mate.
Agree,Bino should finish ahead of ROR at Cheltenham.Hope so!! |
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Does depend which Bino turns up though,hopefully the one that always turns up at the festival.
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maybe becoz they realise they have a slim chance in champion hurdle, got little chance of beating the fly, bino, zarkandar even others to add, i realise this now budd when i red thru
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sint..im talking in theory that al ferof doesnt run in the arkle...if ror couldnt beat a not fully firing binocular and given the fact walsh has the inside track on hf throw in zarkandar and celestial halo all of a sudden ror looks at a crossroads..just an idea really
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I think RoRs main target is the 2 1/2 miler at Aintree this season.
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ok stron it just got me thinking that if al ferof goes cc what would be nicholls arkle horse?
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Jessica Harrongton said the same thing re OW, Stront. Plenty of horses are aimed at Aintree after Cheltenham. It is debatable whether or not it is their main target though.
Denman, 2 of those horses you mention have not even raced this season. And as for Zarkander, he is up against Statistically everywhere you look. |
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Sint - my point was just that if they think there's a good chance he'll do well iin the G1 hurdle at Aintree they are very unlikley to send him chasing now.
Johnny - Toubab? Could Silvianco Conti drop back down in trip? |
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I see.
Yes if they send ROR chasing now i'd be stunned. |