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sintonian
19 Dec 11 12:19
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
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I cant help but feel this is a cracking eachway bet at the price.

His weight carrying performance last time out Newbury looked good at the time but even better now the runner-up, Empire Levant, has been assessed properly and Raya Star winning the ultra-competitive Ladbroke Hurdle at the weekend.

ROR's form figures at Cheltenham, including bumpers, reads 122. The two defeats came against Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant.

Now, have they just realised that perhaps, ROR wants a strongly run 2 miles and not 21f ? If that is the case, then his defeats behind Bobs Worth and First Liue are more creditable, as they both stay the trip strongly.

ROR's next run is expected to be the Xmas Hurdle .. 2 miles over a quick track.

AGE - as much as I am a fan of Grandouet, and the form of the Triumph looks very solid, the record of 5yo's in the big one is very poor. You can point to Katchit winning recently, but I see him a fortunate winner, as Sizing Europe was cantering all over the field before breaking down with a back injury.

Evidence .. Punjabi beaten in the CH at 5yo, but wins it the following season at 6. Binoculare and Celetial Halo both beaten in it at 5yo, but Bino wins a year later. For this reason I could not have Grandouuet,Unaccompanied or Zarkander for the big one in March.

I am a massive fan of Spirit Son, and backed him before the injury hiccups news, which I now regret. But if he manages to have TWO runs before March, he'll have a big chance.

We all know HF is the one to beat, but I personally dont know anyone backing him at 9/4, and if you are, you're a muppet. He has missed 2 of the last 3 Festivals.

Oscars Well remains open to further improvement and is getting there with each run, but dont see him as the winner tbh.

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Replies: 130
By:
unclepuncle
When: 19 Dec 11 13:05
Good post Sint and a very valid bet.

I haven't had a bet yet, but at the current prices I'd probably veer more towards Oscars Well @ 25/1 - he looked the more naturally speedy horse in the Neptune and although he has been a bit disappointing this season he improved markedly from Christmas onwards last year so maybe Jessie hasn't had him 100% yet. Though I still feel he should have gone chasing this season.
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Dec 11 13:29
Yeah I was initially disappointed with his Debut this season when beaten by the Real Article and Kalann as you would expect a genuine CH contender to be winning that race. I also think he was not certain to win at the Festival in March before that last flight blunder.

But what you can say is his rating has gone from 147 to 154 in his last two races despite being beaten, so he clearly is on the improve.

Same sire as ROR as well btw.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 19 Dec 11 16:36
Rock on Ruby would be 33/1 if he wasn't trained by PFN
By:
Fabulous
When: 19 Dec 11 19:08
Hope you're right sint, on @ big prices up to pennies @ 200's (put up on another thread coupla months back). Laid off few quid after Newbury run, but still in a decent position on him. Can't realistically see him troubling HF, but if he were to be absent, then you never know.
By:
turnip turns
When: 19 Dec 11 19:12
Agree Sint,put this up last week on my forumWink...............didn't back the Ladbroke winner though,wadcCry
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Dec 11 19:18
Good stuff TT.

er .. based on what Bluebirdfan ..
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 19 Dec 11 19:19
Mischief
By:
bestmate
When: 19 Dec 11 20:41
Agree with Sint. My take
HF: You can always lump on at 6/4 on the day IF he makes it on the day
Grandouet: 14/1 was agood price even for a 5 year old.
Oscar whisky : owner seems to favour World hurle but if it wins at Fos las by 15 lengths?
Spirit Son: Have backed it but too few runs for a CH
By:
jair1970
When: 19 Dec 11 22:02
If he backs up his last win, he's every chance of being 2nd/3rd fav w/HF or 1st/2nd fav without.

I think that's quite likely as HF apart it's an open division this year, and his trainer is gagging to win it too
By:
Wicketd
When: 19 Dec 11 22:13
what will oscar be taking on at ffos las?
By:
neill d
When: 19 Dec 11 22:32
Good spot, he'd remind one a little in style of Peddlars and what is great is that 1)Nicholls seems to reckon he is a real hurdler and 2) he wants a Champion Hurdle really badly and this horse definitely looks like his best chance to me. Form is working out great and 2 at cheltenham on the stiff course is such a test of stamina it is untrue.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Dec 11 08:10
Owner of Oscar Whisky all but confirmed him as going for the World Hurdle yesterday. As for who will take him on at Ffos las .. who knows.. and if he were to win it I still think they will go back up in trip for the festival. They are only going to ffos las because it is the owners racetrack. If the opposition is half decent he might be worth laying.
By:
alexmillwall
When: 20 Dec 11 08:20
Surely the fact that nicholls keeps saying Zarkander is his major chance of landing the CH is a downer for this one?
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Dec 11 08:29
Not really imo. Zarkander has not been seen this season yet and everytime Nicholls is asked about him he says there is no plan.

It is quite possible he can have more than one runner aswell, if he wanted too.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 20 Dec 11 09:15
Zarkander didn't appear until February last year so wouldn't be unduly put off by his absence.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 20 Dec 11 15:53
I would put zarkandars' delayed start to last season down to coming off the flat and having a wee break before emarking on a hurdling career uncle.

His absence so far this season has to be a concern
By:
neill d
When: 20 Dec 11 16:44
some of those ex Aga Khan types can go really of the boil though, I'd need to see him run again maybe.
By:
tinkler
When: 20 Dec 11 19:32
Zarkander has had a breathing op since last season and Nicholls has said last week he is going to give him one run before the CH .
Its difficult to know whats going on with HF and there's a chance that Mullins is using him to scare off runners in some of the Irish races opening the way up for his other runners. He seems to keep his cards
close to his chest. I wouldn't under estimate his training ability and he could produce HF in peak shape in
the CH with or without a prior run making it for me a difficult race to get involved in.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Dec 11 19:45
If Zarkandar only has one run before March that makes 4 in total over hurdles which would leave him decidedly short on experience for the big one imo.
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Dec 11 19:51
A really solid bet imo Sint.

It may well be that Zarkander will end up the better horse but the stat for 5yos in CH speaks for itself.

That being said if HF does turn up in the same form he will be hard to beat. However he was very, very race fit last season and obviously have had a few issues this year - from an AP point of view has to be taken on
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 20 Dec 11 20:41
If hf turns up over Xmas then I think his problems (if there was anything serious) are nothing to worry about and he should win the ch.

Zarkandar not seeing the track, breathing op or not is a major worry for such a young horse.   Don't buy the 5 year old stat personally.


And with spirit son having problems, this years renewal could be wide open.

All depends if we see hf at Xmas for me.
By:
revedesivola
When: 21 Dec 11 00:23
nicholls has said since the start of the season that he might well start in the kingwell. theres no other reason for his absence i think and im sure the antepost market would inform us if something went wrongLaugh
By:
tomdeane
When: 21 Dec 11 01:59
unclepuncle - It's so hard to take your posts seriously when all I see is Partridge's grinning mug!
By:
judorick
When: 21 Dec 11 21:32
can deffo win the Christmas Hurdle next week and then your 16/1 will be very tasty
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Dec 11 11:14
Prefer Bino each way myself.
I like ROR and hes not without a chance with improvement likely,but Bino has never ran badly at Cheltenham,and could well be the forgotten one
By:
strontium
When: 22 Dec 11 12:50
Trouble is Budd, he looks to have regresed markedly in the last year or so. He was superb in the Christmas Hurdle last season, but that's the only time he's looked right since he won the Champion.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 22 Dec 11 14:55
tomdeane
21 Dec 11 02:59

unclepuncle - It's so hard to take your posts seriously when all I see is Partridge's grinning mug!


My posts are never meant to be taken seriouslyLaugh - they should come with a wealth warning at the very leastShocked
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Dec 11 17:14
Has he regressed Stront? i aint sure about that,even before his CH win he was putting in iffy performance here and there.Think thats the horse mate,and hes just as likely to go and put in a cracker.And to be fair at the festival he does run well.
Still pretty young,and i'm willing to take a chance at what i feel is a generous 16 for the CH.
And current price for Boxing day is to my liking as well,he should win that if anywhere near the form of last years race,and then he shortens for March i would think.
By:
strontium
When: 22 Dec 11 17:23
I cana't be sure Budd, but that's my impression. Almost every race has been a stinker since he won the Champion. Plus, after his last run AP said he's just not as good as he was, and AP is not given to too much bull.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Dec 11 17:29
Never saw that interview,not good him saying that i admit,but still he may have said that about the horse before the way he performs sometimes!!
I shall wait till Boxing Day and see what happens.He ought to perform there really,so if he dont i will be a tad concerned.
By:
willie the milk
When: 22 Dec 11 18:00
Not sure a tight 2ml round Kempton will suit ROR. That said, if he were to win, and win well, he would be about a 6-1 shot, or less. With all the adverse rumours with HF, he could be a good bet.
Not interested in Zarkandar. Only reason is 5yo record in the CH is horrendous.
By:
asparagus10
When: 22 Dec 11 19:51
ROR travelled so well at Newbury and the form has been franked,solid ew bet at 16s just taken a bit myself will be halfed if win the xmas hurdle. stamina is key in the champ and he defo stays well, jumps and travels. the 5yo stat doesnt lie, HF is fragile and cant tell me he is keeping it under wraps there is something not right. ROR is the value in the ante post market, good enough to win and a ew price
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Dec 11 13:56
Well both Bino and ROR are no longer 16,s after that.
Grat race and both horses showed they are CH contenders this season.
By:
BJG
When: 26 Dec 11 14:02
disagree but a game of opinions i suppose Devil

Cant have either of them within a stone of winnin a CH - ROR had the perfect position the whole way round with race run to suit and stil could nt win - and i backeed it, very disappointed to be outbattled by Bino
By:
Dark Destroyer
When: 26 Dec 11 14:05
I'm with BJG on this. Even if ROR had jumped the last cleanly and probably won by a length or so the form is still some way off what is needed to beat Grandouet let alone the Fly (and whatever else Henderson comes up with), Cheltenham should suit better though.
By:
Dark Destroyer
When: 26 Dec 11 14:09
Sorry forget the Grandouet reference, for some reason I thought Overturn finished much closer. Too busy concentrating on the first two. Far too much racing today Laugh
By:
strontium
When: 26 Dec 11 14:09
Agree entirely BJG - I'll be very surprised if there's a Champion Hurdler in there.
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Dec 11 14:10
They are contenders,never said they win.
Depends what turns up on the day,at the moment we aint seen 3 of the fancied runners!!
Bino loves Cheltenham and always runs well there,and ROR is an improver.
Personally happy with having Bino e/w at 16.
By:
Rod Tidwell
When: 26 Dec 11 14:26
Thats two major races that ROR appeared likely to win only to be run down on the run in - hardly what's wanted to win the main prize imo
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