The Ladbroke at Ascot

Not betting him at this stage as I dont know what the bottom weight will be but Olofi didn't do much wrong last time. A 5lb rise seems feasible given he didn't have the clearest of passages and is improving at 5.

sticking with the Greatwood form as well Sint...already backed Olofi and Abergavenny as both had it as their stated aim - though will now be happy to see Abergavenny not appear in Bula decs tomorrow

has Olofi been confirmed for this then Rod ?

Yeah he has just read trainers website

yep..he's often on Twitter also

Apologies if this is old news - had a quick look at George website and couldn't see this. Yesterday in the Post he was saying they hadn't committed and were considering the Christmas Hurdle instead.

christmas hurdle as in the Grade 1 at Kempton ?

the bit I read on their website was a comment post after his Greatwood run, so it is 4 weeks old.

^ Unbelievable I know but here it is:

TRAINER Tom George has warned that leading Ladbroke Hurdle fancyOlofi may miss Saturday week's Ascot handicap and step up in class at Kempton a week later instead.

His Greatwood Hurdle runner-up wasmade 10-1 co-third favourite for the Ladbroke by the sponsors after being handed 10st 3lb when the weights were published on Wednesday, but George said: "We haven't totally decided whether to run as we are toying with the Christmas Hurdle.

"If he is right on the day he is very talented so we will wait and see how he works."

Surely they couldn't justify missing this but something to think about if you haven't already backed him.

run off 10 stone 3 in a hcp or level weights an a grade 1?? easy decision

strange one for a horse who last won 2yrs ago.

tom, I reckon he is putting people way there tbh. Why on earth would you run a Grade 1 off 135 ? Just doesn't make sense to me so I will chance a few quid, Win Only.

Dirrty scope, apparently.

Olofi had been my only AP to date. He was definitely the one to take out of the Greatwood for me despite the proximity of Abergavenney and several others.

Very surprised to see Brampour declared after PN's clear statement that he woudlnt be out again for a while after Saturday

Now that he's declared, and in the hope that his trainer doesn't pull a Nolan, I reckon Sailors Warn is really one to get stuck into. His 6th in the Triumph would be sufficient to make him of interest here off 140. However his 2 runs this season have been even better, beaten by two serious horses in Steps of Freedom and Unaccompanied trying to give 9lbs to the former (remember Prospect Wells was getting 3lbs from Steps at Cheltenham, by pretty much any reading of the form this gives SW lumps in hand of the current fav). I managed to get 14/1 with Hills straight after the decs and will top up again.

Sorry - should have said his 2 most recent runs this season.

DD, I agree with you re SW. But I will say this as politley as possible .. when a horse has been entered at the 5 day stage, it doesn't mean he has been declared! imo.  Remember Quel Esprit last week ?? Tread carefully my friend, these Irish entries usually have alternative targets at home.

But in terms of form, I agree, he looks a live runner if he shows up.

Cheers Sint.

The money is down now and at least I can have yet another bitch on here if he doesn't show

Looking again at the decs I suppose it could be a problem if Brampour doesn't line up. Whether EOG would want to run a 4 year old under 11st 6lbs must be questionable. Mind you the weights are so tightly compressed that pretty much all of the contenders would be carrying 11st +.

I just checked with Ladbrokes. They are definitely NRNB so have finished my staking with them at 10/1. If he shows up he really should be close to favourite, if he doesn't at least I get this part of my stake back.

Good luck.

gl DD. The weight do look compressed yeah.

Plenty of rain forecast in the southeast this week so could be looking at Soft ground by the weekend, though Ascot does drain well.

Not keen on assessing this race until theres a fair idea of what the going is. If the going is fastish Brampour and Sailors Warn would have a chance but they look to be only  pony size to me and if it comes up
on the soft side I'd expect them to sink unless they go a crawl. Also if Brampour pulls out it would change the shape of the race . Will Nichols leave Brampour in to compress the weights for Prospects Wells?

Really like Sailors Warn for this. As mentioned runs behind Unaccompanied and Steps to Freedom have been very encouraging and his 6th in the Triumph looks even more encouraging after Brampour and Grandouet's runs at the weekend. 2nd by 1.25 lengths to STF giving him 8lbs reads very well alongside Prospect Wells' neck defeat getting 3lbs from STF.

Sailors Warn only has to give Prospect Wells 2lbs on Saturday. Sailors is 12/1 and Prospect Wells is 9/2. Sailors Warn has proven form on all ground surfaces and will surely go well if he comes over for this. Happy to chance at 12s e/w and take some 10s e/w NRNB with the sponsors.

Here's hoping O'Grady brings him over.

After Quantativeeasing Henderson is giving us more free stake money for Long Run on Boxing Day...

GIBB RIVER 10/1 Merry Xmas to you Nicky

Definitely should be soft (maybe very very soft) come the Weekend if the forecast is right.

Third Intention @ 20/1 and Sailors Warn @ 12/1 look the bets to me.

If he runs - Brampour has a serious chance imo.

Looks like Marsh Warbler is going to get his ground and I was looking towards him, though would be concerned if off top weigh if Brampour doesn't run.

Then noticed that Rajdhani Express beat Houblon des Obeaux much further ( ok was getting £2 ) than Marsh Warbler beat him on the same ground at Chepstow. That was clearly the race that gave MW his current mark and yet he has to give the Henderson horse £9. Small play at 16s seems fair enough to me though I did swaer only yesterday that I would never back another horse ridden by SWC

Act of Kalanisi

A slog would suit this chap and his trainer is no mug in big handicaps.

It looks like its going to be on the soft side of good ,how soft looks unsure. Its possible a few of the leading contenders esp Brampour and Abergaveny could pull out. As such I've decided not to hold fire and back
Desert Cry now (16/1 bookies and bigger on Bf). He's a big strong horse who won't be as effected as others will
be if the weights go up. He travels and jumps well enough plus has the power to get up the long climb from 1 mile out on softish ground. Have concerns that he was a bit of a placer on the flat but if delivered late here
i think he's got a decent chance to win.

well the going change is going to turn some form on its head
horrible price but Prospect Wells looks proper chucked in here
Group 1 form on the flat including on soft going and he should be very hard to beat
4/1 not much of a price now though - one of those horses you needed to get on early


others I considered all seem to want good ground - Viva Collonia and Abergavenny who ran in the Greatwood in particular

Marsh Warbler likes it soft though...

no bet race now

looking at the weather i cant see the ground being any better than soft/heavy in places.

assuming brampour stays in then desert cry, act of kalanisi and alarazi are of interest to me.

cant see a youngster wanting to slog it out over two miles around ascot.

Prospect Wells did do it well last time out would be my only worry.

Trends for the 8 runnings since 2001 (http://tinyurl.com/csw27xv):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-7-27
5yo: 5-6-52
6yo: 1-7-32
7yo: 2-2-18
8yo: 0-1-15
9yo+: 0-1-10
8 of 8 winners have been aged 5 to 7
Horses aged 8+ (0-2-25) have a very poor record having gained no wins and just 2 places from 25 runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-13-97
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 1-11-57
Horses carrying 10-9+ have won 7 of the last 8 (including the last 6) and have filled 19 of 24 places in the last 6 renewals.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 140 or higher: 1-2-16
Horses rated 130 to 139: 4-10-77
Horses rated 129 or lower: 3-12-61
No strong trends on official ratings.

Recent/Past Form
5 of 8 winners won last time out
7 of 8 winners finished in first 3 last time out
6 of 8 winners gained their highest RPR on their last outing
7 of 8 winners were having seasonal debut or had run once
7 of 8 winners previously ran in 4 to 10 times over hurdles
8 of 8 winners had won 1 to 3 times over hurdles
7 of 8 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles
8 of 8 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
7 of 8 winners were second season hurdlers
5 of 8 winners (last 5) ran at the Cheltenham Festival the previous March

Other races
WilliamHill.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Brampour):  1 (1-0-1)
Greatwood Hurdle winner (Brampour): 84 (0-1-2)
Imperial Cup winner (Alarazi): 0P30 (0-1-4)
Bet365.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Raya Star): 0 (0-0-1)
Sportingbet Novice Hurdle winner (Prospect Wells): 8 (0-0-1)
3 of 8 winners ran in the Caspar Caviar H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 321
2 of 8 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 01
2 of 8 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 70
5 of 8 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 County Hurdle, 1 Arkle, 1 Triumph & 1 Supreme Novices)

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (3-2-13) has won 3 of 8 runnings to date, including the last 2.
The Pipe stable (3-2-21) have also won the race 3 times since its inception in 2001 but have no representative this year.
Venetia Williams (1-1-6) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have previously won the race.
Trainers who have saddled multiple placed runners include Gary Moore (0-3-10) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-7).
Irish trained runners (0-2-15) have gained just 2 places from 15 representatives.

Price
5 of 8 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 14/1
Favourites (1-0-8) have a poor record having won just once in eight runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 4.75.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 5 to 7
•    Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)
•    Posted their highest RPR last time
•    Carrying 10-9+
•    Run no more than once this season
•    Second season hurdler
•    Run 4 to 10 times over hurdles (winning 1 to 3)
•    Run in 5 or less handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)
•    Ran at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
•    Trained by N Henderson, V Williams or G Moore

the handicapper has chosen to raise brampour to a higher mark than grandouet, despite getting beaten 4.5 lengths by that horse... apparently because harry derham didnt claim his 7lbs

so he is saying any other pro jockey would have made 7lb difference to the horses performance and brampour would have won... despite the kid having ridden the horse to victory the last twice so therefore knowing better than anyone...

yeah right! claiming its a handicap snip because of that! Like a story out of Yes Minister!

Anyway, tough race to call

cheers for the trends racecaller.

I couldn't care if the horse wins by 10 lengths, but Prospect Wells is a shocking price,imo. He should be closer to an 8/1 shot, but the bookies have shaved off all the cream because of his connections.

Mon Parrain 5/1. 1833 6/1. Ghizao 8/1. All short priced contenders that didn't even frame.

Only one that has done well in these big weekend handicaps is Brampour who went off a well back 6/1 and 11/1.

On trends it looks like Desert Cry is the best pick ??

I backed Raya Star last time out at Newbury (posted on the NH thread) as he appears to be going in the right direction. A convincing win under his belt, plus a solid placed effort last time out when he was conceding 11lb to Empire Levant who subsequently went up 12lb thereaftert as he was turned out 2 days after his romp in a minor event before.

He might be play on Saturday but will wait until the ground is known, although he won his bumper on Soft, if I remember correctly!

Thats the problem with backing Nicholls horses on a Saturday,you always get shorter price then you should.

as I said he's one of those horses you had to back as soon as they opened the market - was about 6/1 - if you wanted to be on and even then it's not a great price given the going etc

and its a truly horrible price now win or not

Current going is GS. Chris Stickles say they are expecting as much as 20mm overnight on Thursday, but even if we are conservative and they get 10mm, that would be enough to make the going Soft.

I've decided to back a couple now anyway..

Raya Star for reasons mentioned before, was up against it lto vs Empire Levant who had not been assesed properly, and Rock On Ruby is running a Grade 1 next and could be an outsider for the CH. Off 134 Raya Star gotta be worth a crack. 12/1.

Desert Cry is off 143 which looks a bit prohibitive imo, but he does fit a lot of the trends and won his Novice hurdle on Heavy going. 14/1

Done both eachway and hope one will at least make the frame to at ensure breaking even.

Prospects Wells may win, but at 4/1 I couldn't give a shoite if he does.

Sailors Warn on form looks to have a big chance if running imo

Hello Chaps,

I've staked far far too much on this race but FWIW I'll share my selections with you.

GIBB RIVER (ground concerns)
ACT OF KALANISI (should go on the ground)
VIVA COLONIA (will love ground)

The latter is extremely interesting. You go back and watch the Greatwood hurdle. He was given an 'interesting' ride by TJ to say the least and wasn't even in the picture midway down the hill on the TV Screen. Look carefully and you see him on the right hand side. This isn't the first time a horse has had a bad time of it at chelters under TJ and then come home like a train, which he did. The pattern almost mirrors exactly ALARAZI before he won at Sandown.

For me VIVA COLONIA finishes like the best horse in the race having made up a boat load of ground from off the pace. He simply wasn't ever put into it properly and I am confident the outcome would have been very different if he had been. Has a real turn of foot and needs a strong pace with cut, which is what he'll get there. Reunited (and jocked up already) with Denis O'Regan I'm expecting a very bold show from VIVA COLONIA at 16/1.

Hello Chaps,

I've staked far far too much on this race but FWIW I'll share my selections with you.

GIBB RIVER (ground concerns)
ACT OF KALANISI (should go on the ground)
VIVA COLONIA (will love ground)

The latter is extremely interesting. You go back and watch the Greatwood hurdle. He was given an 'interesting' ride by TJ to say the least and wasn't even in the picture midway down the hill on the TV Screen. Look carefully and you see him on the right hand side. This isn't the first time a horse has had a bad time of it at chelters under TJ and then come home like a train, which he did. The pattern almost mirrors exactly ALARAZI before he won at Sandown.

For me VIVA COLONIA finishes like the best horse in the race having made up a boat load of ground from off the pace. He simply wasn't ever put into it properly and I am confident the outcome would have been very different if he had been. Has a real turn of foot and needs a strong pace with cut, which is what he'll get there. Reunited (and jocked up already) with Denis O'Regan I'm expecting a very bold show from VIVA COLONIA at 16/1.

Sint, in complete agreement and have backed both each-way myself

The 2 i like are Via Galilei @ 14s and Act Of Kalanisi @ 20s, may as well wait until tomorrow to be sure they are running though

Sailor's Warn for me

sorry to be mr doom, but weather looks a bit wintry on friday. saturday not as bad, damage maybe done though.

Yeah harchi, agree re VIVA, to finish so close from where he was in a race of that competitiveness was eyecatching, thats his style of racing, even though rather overdone at cheltenham,
to much re ground, top weight running, to be confident about anything at this stage for me though. but he would be my choice, along with RADJDANI EXPRESS, think this will come on for it's last run.
good luck all

viva colonia went in many notebooks after the greatwood i have had my maximum e/w great price 20/1 with joe  korals a few days back... good luck to all on

AP booked to ride Sailors Warn

Sailors Warn declared - McCoy booked. Unless the horse is already here, might well have a very rough journey

Brampour in to keep weights down as well.

Cheers Roo. Don't rain on my parade please!

DD

I guess if I hadn't added the bit about the journey I might have been able to say the same to you

DD

On reading back I think I better understand your comment now - I have a small interest in it NRNB as well so I hope all is well. If it is I will likely go in again but not until confirmed. Sounds like you are very confident so good luck

I wonder if Geraghty had the choice between Gibb & Sailor ..

Dark Destroyer
15 Dec 11 11:22

AP booked to ride Sailors WarnExcitedCool

Bang goes that ones chance then

yep having the champ on bored means he can't win now..............

has segal put anything up for this yet ..?

Sailors Warn is very strong on here, could be Pricewise?

ffs

Raya Star e/w for me. Also Act of Kalanisi e/w & Abergavenney.

for my 3rd big handicap in a  row ;-)
Carruthers 20/1 and Quantitativeeasing 8/1 in previous weeks :D

Price wise is Brampour. A little surprising but who am I to judge!

Hugh Taylor as well!

I think they have put him up because he is 9Lb better off then in future h'caps. Lazy selection.

Lay of the day 4yr old, too much weight, PN never won race, and doesn't fit profile of previous winners.

GL

Got to be Sailors Warn for me.

Raya Star has taken a fair drift on here. Was 11's last night, currently 15's. Oh well, still think he's a smashing chance today.

Along with Desert Cry of course.

gl all.

Trusty.

Brampour is a class act. Must have a good chance in the race imo.

It's a shame Nicholls ran him in the Bula. He did initially say he would be kept for this race after his Greatwood win.

...got to smash lots of trends and had a hard race just 7 days ago. I really think they put him in to frame it for their other runner.

I agree he normally travels well, so my plan is only to lay small before the event and then leave in running lays between 4/1 and EVS. Hoping the commentator will say "and here comes the pricewise selection Brampour cruising into the race" before finding little after the 2nd last and fading out of the frame.

On all known form Via Galilei should finish in front of Brampour invho ...a stone better off for 1/2 length. I really dont think he has improved that much since they last met. GL.

Also gonna have a couple of quid on Ciceron who will love the ground today.
And as i think their prices on here are a bit too big i shall back Marsh Warbler and Radjhani Express.

Bosh!

well done WicketD

same to you mate, lovely

well done both. Great pick.

congrats, good picking

Well done winners.

Back to the drawing board for me

Anybody notice the POSSIBLE mistake made by top trainers, namely D. PIPE runs GREAT ENDEAVOUR in Hennessey, probaly didn't stay, but then runs him quickly in SPINAL RESEARCH GOLD CUP, naturally he runs poorly.
P. NICHOLLS decides after stating that BRAMPOUR was to be aimed at the LADBROKE, but then decides to run him in the S.JAMES international hurdle, even after he reports the horse had pus in his hoof on the Thursday before he ran, could have kept him for the LADBROKE, but didn't that lame reason that the horse is 9lbs well in for future races, is just stupid, the assessment is made by the handicapper and therefore is only an opinion, handicapper gave Brampour a BETTER rating than the 4 length winner GRANDOUET, ABSOLUTELY STUPID IN MY OPINION!!!!!

Completely agree.

If I was fortunate enough to have owned either of those two horses there is no way I would have run them in said races, would have saved them for the race that suited them the best and kept them fresher. Even if the trainers were twisting my arm!

GE made a terrible blunder though, no idea how he would've fared. no harm in taking his chance with that one, his favourite trip and a track that suits.

dont like the handling of brampour

Great Endeavour did not "run poorly", he was travelling perfectly well and trading at around 5.5 when he made an horrendous jumping mistake which cost him all chance. That happened 7 fences from home. I did note in the Paddy Power he made a similarly bad (not as bad) mistake but it was at the last and he was laready well clear.

We will never know how he would have finished his race had he not made that mistake but we can try and draw some conclusions. A horse he had previously beaten "easily" according to the in running comments by 7 lengths ended up winning the race. There was a pull in the weights so we can be sure the two would have been closer than in the PP.

Making one jumping mistake and running poorly are not the same and it had nothing to do with running in the Hennessey

Wicket, we saying they should have skipped the Hennessy and waited for the Dec GC. Ditto for Brampour re the Bula.

Anyway, if the going is decent GE should have a good chance in the Ryanair. Any ideas what his current odds are ..

JUDORICK, you make a valid point as regards errors for GE, but I do feel that an unsuitable race in between helped to bring about the error and he was only knocked out  when his stablemate cannoned into him, did they NOT know what they had and was the HENNESSEY a test of stamina?

agree about ryanair, backed him for it straight after hennessy on here at 20, think it's still available or close at least. similar profile to our vic as well.

I said after the PP that he could well be a 170 horse and that puts him bang in Ryan Air country if he does progress that far

Olofi entered for Saturdya in a good race a Newbury.