My concern about MM is that he finds nothing off the bridle - and it seems unlikley to me he can win a KG on it.

the only reason to wait to run Kauto in the Gold Cup would be as a last hurrah or a send off party. His prospects of winning the race at his age are slim to say the least. I forget the stats for horses older than 10 years old but it makes grim reading. I love the horse but just can't see anyway he can win.

However, he adores Kempton and would be going there with the prospect of making history (winning a 5th KG). Imagine the scenes if he bounded clear over the last two fences! If he is right, and the yard knows when he is, it would be almost criminal not to run him only to save him for a race in which he has massive stats to overcome

and the only race he's won since his novice days was when beating 1833 a few weeks backs...he does look soft a lot of times.....and now he's being considered for the king george against long run and co....no thanks.

Forget the stats and look at the races.
If you look at the potential candidates for the KG you will see a few speedier types which Kauto could well struggle to beat over 3m on a flat track.He wont be facing them in the Gold Cup!!Even if he does he will beat them anyway.
If you look at the potential candidates for the Gold Cup you will see Long Run and a likely field inc mostly horses that people have been knocking(last years novices).
He is now an out and out stayer and 3m2f round Cheltenham is more suited for him,3m round Kempton now is not.
He has proved he is as good round Cheltenham as he is round Kempton and his connections have always said he prefers Cheltenham anyway.
The major point remains though that his training has been altered this season and does not appear to enhance his chances of being A1 for Kempton.

Budd, totally agree. He has been trained this year to peak at Haydock. In the past Haydock or Down Royal were stepping stones to the KG. I think his runs at Aintree & Punchestown after previous GC's show that when trained to a peak he needs a long rest. From what they say he seems to be bouncing and looking great at home the whole time so it must be very difficult to judge, but surely the past form shows us that to run in this KG after THAT great effort would be the wrong decision.

On the MM debate. I've backed him but do have doubts over him staying. However I think Kempton should suit and if he's at his best and gets into a rhythm he may take some beating. A few big if's there I know.

as a long term betting strategy though, opposing long established trends at the Festival has to be one of the worst unless you have good evidence that suggests the trend has changed... and there is no evidence to suggest horses aged 11+ are about to start winning GCs at Cheltenham

Paul Jones "Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide" is a must for me every February, not just for the winner finding but for putting you off shorties that get beat when they clearly fail to fit the profile required.

I remember the first day 2010 when Dunguib, Captain Cee Bee and Go Native were all well beaten favs in the first 3 races at SPs of less than 3.5 each. They were all negatives in the Guide for various reasons (ie Go Native won the Supreme Novices Hurdle which has an abysmal record in finding CH winners)

Just saying

And he will be 12 years old come the GC in March - the record of 12 yos is just not worth thinking about. Yes he is an exceptional race horse but his price does not reflect his true chance which is very low so his price is short imo

I have heard it many times before "this is a horse to break the trend" and yes sometimes a horse will break long established trends but overall if you stick with the trends you will make more money.

BTW, if he leads them home at Chelters in March I will be jumping up and down blubbing my eyes out like a big nancy. I just cannot see it happening under any circumstances

I strongly suggest you order the Paul Jones book mate. You can order it online and they post it out to you in February. It is super powerful

add those stats into your form analysis and you will be on a gold mine. I mainly use it to avoid backing runners that have little chance.

Yes, of course any race could cut up but if you think in a wider context you can just take all those factors into account. I must say I also use form and ratings at the Festival combined with the trends

i have to confess i have never heard of this book,maybe i will take a look.

Thing is we are discussing KS and whether he will line up at Kempton.
I dont think Stats will be on the minds of Clive Smith or Paul Nicholls,just the horse and what hes telling them.

Downward slide,thats interesting.
I thought he was going that way fast,but Haydock has changed my view somewhat.Yes,he aint as good as he was 2 or 3 yrs ago,but the point is he could still be good enough to beat this years Gold Cup field,and thats the crucial point imo.
Hes just beat the Fav,yes LR will improve from that,but beat him he did,and then what do we have??
Tell you what,if he repeats his jumping at Haydock and hes given the right prep(no KG)then i see no horse other than Long Run beating him,unless one of the novices that i keep banging on about on various threads actually backs up my confidence in them,which i must admit is starting to wain.

FWIW I have a very good friend who thinks trends followers are a bunch a lazy shysters who have no understanding of the reason some 'trends' exist or why, on the whole, they are utterly worthless. 

....and he generally leaves Cheltenham with his pockets stuffed.

Each to their own, I suppose.

I shall certainly pass on your thoughts to my friend, "judorick".

All the best

The one I usually stick to is to avoid the high weights in handicaps. You do of course get exceptions but very rarely, and it seems obvious that weight becomes more of an issue when you are conceding lumps of it to really good horses in very strongly run and competitive fields. Think it's the same basis for the 3-1 or shorter stat - however good a fav looks, the strength in depth in virtually all Festival races is such that betting on short-priced runners very rarely offers value.

As for judorick's extension of the Gold Cup stat, I would agree that Kauto winning the Gold Cup at 12 seems extremely unlikely, but as others have said, he is something of a special case and if the race was a weak one it could happen. Age stats tend to mean less to me for the simple fact that age is a bit of a red herring in many cases - i.e. how many x year-olds with chances have run, how many of those x year-olds came into the race without serious injuries in the past, how many races has this x-year-old run etc...

That being sais, the head does very much suggest Kauto and Denman will struggle to win the Blue Riband in 2012. Here's hoping though!

And when the race is weak your likelihood of success rises.
Stats as a guide i guess is fine,but no way is it black and white,and each race /horse has to be taken on its merits.
If i fancy a horse i aint gonna let any stat stop me from backing it,imagine not backing and it goes and wins.Would never forgive myself.
No,thanks Judo,but i will continue to punt as i always have mate.
I have form,going,trainer,jockey,breeding and anything else i need at my disposal.

That would be an uncomfortable truth for statsfans, stront.  I wonder, if Long Run was carried out in this season's Gold Cup, would they be against him in 2013 because he's trying to regain it?

Of course the race could cut up and make the trends worthless

However at this stage I have to work on the assumption that the Gold Cup will be just as hard to win as in any other year and therefore that those horses with major negatives against them are not going to win the race on average.

Therefore, thinking about Kauto and whether to run in the King George, I would say that he has a much better chance of winning that race and that you should not miss that in favour of the Gold Cup if your intention is to win a race because on balance he is very unlikely to win in March.

This is the thing with using trends (not stats). You have to balance one set of trends against others. You can draw whatever conclusion you like - there is no right or wrong, you are looking to get it right on balance enough times to get an edge and make a profit. It's just another way of looking at it...

and I only really do it for Cheltenham Festival, bit of Aintree and Royal Ascot. The rest of the year it's ratings, form and so on

Wouldn't shock me if that gave Henry the perfect excuse to pull the plug tbh...

Looked like he wanted 4 miles today.

I do hope Miss Knight has noticed that the Peterborough, although back to its traditional Thursday slot, is run just over a forthnight before the King George and not just over a month as it used to be

quite ironic how once upon time you couldn't get her to run the thing...owners on holiday!!! now it's going to run 3 times in a 5 weeks....i'd like them to find out how it doesn't seem to be able to take a mistake in its stride so to speak without coming under the pump straight after.