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Anaglogs Daughter
05 Dec 11 20:00
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 10
| Topic/replies: 1,044 | Blogger: Anaglogs Daughter's blog
Clive Smith is not allowing himself to be fooled by Kauto Sar’s perky demeanour in the run-up to the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day as he steels himself to make the toughest decision he has faced as an owner.

By HOTSPUR (J A McGrath) TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

Smith has seen it all before with Kauto Star and knows that his brilliant performer’s bright mood at home does not always translate into a sparkling performance on the racecourse.
Truth be told, Kauto Star is such a showman and maintains such a physical presence that even the most experienced of observers at Paul Nicholls’ yard can be tricked, occasionally, as to his wellbeing.
Hence, with the King George only 20 days away, connections have agreed to sit and wait as long as possible before deciding whether the gelding attempts to land an incredible fifth win in racing’s main Christmas attraction.
“We’re not going to say much [on the issue] to give ourselves every chance of making the right decision,” said Smith.
“Kauto is in great shape. He’s giving every sign that he has recovered well after [winning] the Betfair Chase, but we’ve seen that before. He’s always got plenty of bounce about him at home, so it can be hard to tell.
“After he finished second to Denman in the Gold Cup [in 2008], he looked to be in great form at home, yet he went to Aintree and was just beaten by Our Vic, which he should never have been [if he was at his best]. The fact is that he had a hard race in the Gold Cup, yet he was bouncing a few days later.”
One of the key factors being analysed by connections is how much Haydock’s Betfair Chase, in which Kauto Star returned to his brilliant best to see off Gold Cup winner Long Run, really took out of him.
“He had a tough race that day and so did Long Run by the way. The danger is, of course, that Kauto comes out again quickly and runs flat. There is a possibility we might just hold to him on until the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March.
“It is a tough decision and I’ll be taking all the advice I can get,” said Smith.
Whatever the decision, Smith’s familiar green, gold and purple colours will be carried in the King George by Master Minded. The gelding is 5-1 third favourite in ante-post betting behind Long Run (6-4) and Kauto Star (4-1).
“He has been aimed at the race for some time and we feel that he’s better now than he was at Ascot last month [when winning].”
Master Minded has never raced over further than two miles and five furlongs and never won over further than two and a half miles, but
connections obviously do not have any stamina doubts regarding the three miles of the King George. If Kauto Star stays in his stable then Master Minded should prove an able deputy
Pause Switch to Standard View Clive Smith on his big decision With...
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Report The Headmaster December 8, 2011 3:43 PM GMT
A horse of his undoubted class should be able to absorb a mistake like that imo.
Report judorick December 8, 2011 4:09 PM GMT
exactly Headmaster

which is why he is subject to so much criticism
Report sintonian December 8, 2011 5:03 PM GMT
have seen far worse mistakes than that tbf.

they simply have to try 3 miles now. Last chance saloon.
Report buddeliea December 8, 2011 5:09 PM GMT
Anyway,back to the topic of discussion.
Kauto for another Gold Cup??
Hes got a big chance yer know.
Long Run,a few rather doubtful stayers possibly and last seasons novices,oh and must not forget his stablemate.
Thats the opposition he will face.
Nowt to be worried about even at his age,just the possibility of running in the KG in the way.
Report judorick December 8, 2011 5:46 PM GMT
I laid Kauto, Denman and IC all last year right up to Xmas while they were the head of the market. They have less chance this year Budd. Kauto won't be winning the GC or should I say he has a low probability of success which is how I prefer to think of it.
Report The Headmaster December 8, 2011 5:54 PM GMT
Long Run,a few rather doubtful stayers possibly and last seasons novices,oh and must not forget his stablemate.
Thats the opposition he will face.


With respect budd that's quite a simplistic view at the mo.  While you may be right, it is perfectly feasible that a handicapper on a charge will force his way into the picture, or a hot novice will throw his hat in the ring, or a French horse, either trained over there or bought and trained over here, could emerge etc.etc. and something's got to win the Cotswold, the Aon, the Lexus, the Ascot Chase, the Hennessy, alongside the handicaps.  There'll be realistic challengers and a fair few of them, don't worry about that.

Nigh-on four months is a long time in a horse's career....a handful will improve markedly between now and the Gold Cup, but Kauto, sadly, isn't one of them.  This King George is up for grabs though isn't it?  I think McCain, for one, has realised that, as Weird Al was supposed to be on a break the last I read.  He's gone through at the latest scratching stage though. Confused
Report judorick December 8, 2011 6:01 PM GMT
Have to agree and in any case I can't see Kauto beating Long Run at Cheltenham so at this stage he can't be a bet unless you are gambling on whether Long Run turns up or jumps badly
Report buddeliea December 8, 2011 6:34 PM GMT
So Headmaster,give me likely runners that does not include Long Run,the doubtful stayers and the novices,which most are crabbing.
All those races you mention will be won by one of the above i imagine

Wont be winning??
Bit matter of fact for this game imo Judo.
Report judorick December 8, 2011 6:42 PM GMT
read the rest of the sentence Budd

says "has a low probability" Mischief
Report fivebagken December 8, 2011 7:04 PM GMT
What price will you lay me judorick? Trends and stats are broken all the time, just look at the National, every year the 'weight' stat seems to creep up another pound. For you to say Kauto can't win based on stats is verging on buffoonery, and that's not a word I use lightly. I'm not saying he will or even trying to make a case, but to make such sweeping statements about a horse who is one of the best ever is a tad foolish in my very humble opinion.

Also, please post your lays. LaughLaughCry
Report buddeliea December 8, 2011 7:12 PM GMT
Sorry Judo,low probabailty.
Could you tell me which horse/horses you expect to beat Kauto Star in the Gold Cup aside from the horse that Kauto just outjumped at Haydock,and forget yer stats and trends if you dont mind.
Report The Headmaster December 8, 2011 7:18 PM GMT
Hi budd,
Being able to correctly predict which horses will turn up in March rather defeats the object of it being unpredictable.  I wouldn't dare to suggest which unconsidered horses will turn up, although it's fun to have a stab and I've been known to luck out on a wild one on the odd occassion.  There's one horse I'm particularly keen to load up on although that's proving troublesome at the mo.  Anyway, let me switch it and ask you to predict the field.  With respect, you'll have outperformed any punter that's gone before you if you nail it.

Equally, you say the races I mention will be won by a member of one of your groups, but by definition the doubtful stayer(s) will allay those fears by winning, or the cr@p novice will prove himself not to be so cr@p after all etc.etc. 

I should declare at this point that I wasn't taken with any of the novices from last season...not any of the ones that troubled the judge at Cheltenham or Aintree anyway...and still believe Kauto and, more importantly imo, Denman to be right at the top of the 3m Chasing tree.  I can't see why Kauto should finish in front of Denman in the Gold Cup, though (especially with Denman twice the price) which makes this potential King George swerve so frustrating.
Report buddeliea December 8, 2011 7:31 PM GMT
None of those races will be 3m2f round Cheltenham,so will not allay fears about staying.
One Man p1ssed the KG-just an example.
The irish races will probably be contested by the Irish novices and Joncol types.None of which at this stage look fIt to lace Kautos boots,so to speak.Although i still have hopes for some ive backed ages ago.
Course i dont know the line up now,but we all have a pretty good idea.Yes,something could come out of the woodwork,but it better get a shift on.
Denman i agree is interesting still,but the difference there is Kauto has come out this season and proved he can still muck it.
Report judorick December 8, 2011 7:46 PM GMT
What price will you lay me judorick?

Hopefully will be able to lay it on the day in single figures.

All I say, again ffs, is that betting horses (any horse) to overcome long established and powerful trends is not LIKELY to be a profitable strategy - and that is all I am concerned about. So go ahead and back Kauto and Denman in the Gold Cup, back 9 and 10 year olds in the Arkle or horses with low handicap hurdle ratings, back Triumph Hurdle winners and 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle... for the next 10 years and see if you make a profit.

It's about the individual race, horse or whatever. And again, this is at this stage of proceedings
Report The Headmaster December 8, 2011 7:46 PM GMT
Well they seem pretty bullish about the old slugger too, budd.  I'm not sure enough people are acknowledging the Denman/Kauto scores.  The only time Kauto Star has actually finished infront of Denman was when Denman had a very difficult season coming off the back of his heart-scare and finished second to KS in the Gold Cup.  It's currently 3-1 to Denman...let's assume, no reason not too, that he's just as well prepared as Kauto come March...I can't see why KS will beat him, can you?
Report judorick December 8, 2011 7:47 PM GMT
poxy forum, cant edit

its NOT about the individual horse or race
Report buddeliea December 8, 2011 7:54 PM GMT
To be honest if they both turned up fit and well i would not be surprised which one would finish in front of the other,just depends on their jumping on the day,and thats one thing i cannot predictLaugh
Report judorick December 8, 2011 8:08 PM GMT
think the going is important to both horses
Report buddeliea December 8, 2011 8:21 PM GMT
To be honest i never thought we would be talking about these 2 in relation to a Gold cup again.i really thought that was it after last season.Then Kauto comes out and beats the Gold Cup and KG winner,and it all starts again!!
So i start looking at what he can achieve in what must be his last season,and what starts happening??
A lot of his potential rivals put in performances below the standard required and all of a sudden hes 2nd fav!!
Cant wait to see what Denman gives us when he runs.If he smashes the Lexus field the cat will be well amongst the pigeons!!
Report The Headmaster December 9, 2011 9:58 AM GMT
DENMAN RETIRED

FFS!!!!!
Report buddeliea December 9, 2011 12:10 PM GMT
Yeh,such a shame,was looking forward to the Lexus,but what a few years he gave us.
Deserves his retirement for sure.
Report zilzal1 December 9, 2011 12:14 PM GMT
If you rattle the cage of the Gold Cup market, the plate looks a bit sparse now. If the distance was the problem and Mon Parrain is a stayer and wins 20l today will he enter the fray??
Report zilzal1 December 9, 2011 4:09 PM GMT
Obv notWhoops

Do you think that Denmans retirement will now affect the decision to run Kauto at Kempton either way

Pros-He could get injured before March in the same way

Cons-If KS runs a clunker at Kempton he probably wouldnt have a runner in the race
Report duffy December 9, 2011 4:19 PM GMT
mon parrain is reminding me of somersby a little.
Report buddeliea December 9, 2011 5:42 PM GMT
Think Master Minded is more likely to affect the decision,that and whether they feel KS can now do both races.
I really think they want him to bow out in March,and want to give him every chance of doing that with a win.
Dont think KS and MM will both run at Kempton,so if MM runs, which hes been trained for,Kauto wont.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 10, 2011 5:12 PM GMT
With the likely chance that this race could cut up quite a bit, and there being less then 8 runners in the field, 5/1 MM is a steal and some price imo he will be a lot shorter on the day, i expect less then 3s with LR around the 6/5 5/4 area if KS is in the field i can see it being

LR 6/5
KS 9/4
MM 11/4
CC 13/2 bar with only 7 or less runners
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 10, 2011 5:14 PM GMT
I have been backing him at all rates from 5s - 10s after his seasonal debut and again today at 5s!
Report sintonian December 10, 2011 5:19 PM GMT
Mon Parrain is nothing like Somersby. He just wallopped by the handicapper for winning a terrible,terrible race at Sandown by 22 lengths.
Report duffy December 10, 2011 8:49 PM GMT
a good few people were calling him a gold cup winner after that sandown win.......very few were saying that he was nothing of the kind and was simply flattered....in truth he is neither one nor the other.....but ultimately has to be rated as disappointing   at the moment at least...much like somersby really.
Report duffy December 10, 2011 8:54 PM GMT
his performance at aintree did not suggest that he was feeling the effects of an over zealous handicapper as he travelled like a dream...but emptied in a stride....if he was to be feeling the effects of the extra stone odd ...he wouldn't have operated the way he did through that race.
Report zilzal1 December 10, 2011 9:15 PM GMT
Agree Duffy, theres something wrong somewhere, for 95% of the Aintree race he looked well handicapped!!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 11, 2011 12:11 AM GMT
MM is the only bet in the race at this stage of antepost imvho, at 5/1 3 places and 1/4 odds e/way!
Report buddeliea December 11, 2011 9:27 AM GMT
5/1 for a doubtful stayer?? not for me.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 11, 2011 12:24 PM GMT
I distinctly remember saying the same thing about a certain Kauto Star buddeliea. Oh how wrong i was! LOL!
Report buddeliea December 11, 2011 12:28 PM GMT
well its possible he could stay of course,but i just think 5,s is a bit short to find out,plus even if he does stay he still has to beat some top 3m horses.
Report bbsband December 11, 2011 12:46 PM GMT
yes not sure about MM budd.The 5,s looks short agree but
then again could suprise us.Not for me though.
As regards stats/trends they are helpful but not conclusive.
I dont think its a good idea to wipe out most of the field in
an instant.Used as an additional tool yes they are helpful IMO
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 11, 2011 12:52 PM GMT
Well having backed both Kauto Star (11/2 and 5s) and MM (5s & 10s) I believe i have the first 3 covered in the race. If KS doesn't run for whatever reason i cannot have MM outside the first 3 and vice versa and of course a nichols 1-2 in the race is not out of the question either, especially if you take the opinion as i do that LR will not win again this term! That might be fool hardy to say, but i am merely looking back through the ages and looking at how often top horses have one 'best season' of their careers then just run ok for the rest of it!
Report Martin pipe returns December 11, 2011 6:29 PM GMT
Both will run, provided Kauto showing up well at home. That's what connections have said so why doubt them?
Report resner not lesnar December 12, 2011 3:10 PM GMT
Well well well. Kauto runs, here's hoping he can reproduce the Haydock performance, if so he has a great chance.
I personally would have preferred them to wait for the GC, but there's no doubt the KG course & distance suit him.

Although I made my mind up to take Long Run on this year, I think that despite his first run I may have got him wrong and if he improves for the run he'll be very hard to beat.

For my TTF I would love to see MM win, but there is only one horse I'll be cheering on if he's challenging in the home straight.
Report strontium December 12, 2011 3:14 PM GMT
Exciting! What a treat to see the two great Nicholls/Smith chasers line up together.

Anyone know what Clive Smith's second colours are?

Come on Kauto!
Report The Headmaster December 12, 2011 4:11 PM GMT
Clive Smith: "Master Minded has been aimed for the race, but it was a great performance from Kauto three weeks ago.  If he showed any sign that he wasn't right, we wouldn't be running him. I don't mind who wins, but perhaps I've a slight preference for Kauto."

Now obviously Master Mindeed is a very good horse and not one that Mr Smith wants to see beat...but still, I would have expected Clive to get behind the old boy a little more readily!
Report sintonian December 12, 2011 4:15 PM GMT
Great news. A better price on Long Run should now be attainable.
Report strontium December 12, 2011 4:33 PM GMT
That's the spirit Sint Wink Good job SWC dodged the ban eh?
Report sintonian December 12, 2011 5:26 PM GMT
Indeed.
Report buddeliea December 12, 2011 5:29 PM GMT
Well,im a tad surprised but its great for us re the King George.
Not so good for Kautos chances in the Gold Cup imo,but maybe im wrong on that as well!!

So,given this news,imo Master Minded should not be backed to win the race,he was a doutful stayer,but with his jockey,now hes a doutful stayer without his jockey,would not touch him with stolen.
Report judorick December 13, 2011 12:12 AM GMT
great news, correct decision, can't wait

win then retire?
Report buddeliea December 13, 2011 7:52 AM GMT
if he wins the Gold Cup will be next,then retire.
Report strontium December 13, 2011 9:47 AM GMT
If he stays healthy, I'm sure he'll run in the Gold Cup. If he has a bad day at Kempton they'll just say the Betfair took more out of him than they'd thought but he'll be fresh for Cheltenham, and that Chelt suits him better than Kempton nowadays. The Nicholls excuse playbook is really quite formulaic.
Report buddeliea December 13, 2011 12:10 PM GMT
According to his jockey hes always been more suited to Cheltenham,so that excuse would be viable.Angd given that hes a real stayer now it would make sense anyway.
Report judorick December 13, 2011 12:23 PM GMT
so we get to see him run twice more? well what a pleasure that will be

put up a good show old son!
Report buddeliea December 13, 2011 12:26 PM GMT
yep,think i will book my ticket now,any jumps fan who can get there,should be there.
Report layingisthewayforward December 13, 2011 6:10 PM GMT
lay of long run for me at the prices.
Report buddeliea December 13, 2011 7:15 PM GMT
guess what.......no bloody trains on Boxing Day.
TV for meSad
Report judorick December 13, 2011 9:04 PM GMT
that's unlucky!
Report EVILROYSLADE December 13, 2011 10:43 PM GMT
Kauto winning the King George would be a wonderful sight. Not that I expect it to happen of course. Unless I am going mad and  jockeys have already been assigned, I reckon Ruby will be aboard MM and he will win it.
Report judorick December 13, 2011 10:45 PM GMT
nope Ruby is riding Kauto!
Report alansure1 December 13, 2011 11:05 PM GMT
Hiya chaps ive been backing weird Al e/w for the king george and it keeps coming into 30s then out to 100s then back in,its still entered in the race but do you think its a runner or any news would be greatly appreciated.
Report sintonian December 14, 2011 9:31 AM GMT
alan, think they said they are giving him a long break and then back to the festival.
Report alansure1 December 14, 2011 10:16 AM GMT
ahhh ok i have backed him for the gold cup so it looks like ive done my money on the king george thanks sintonian
Report The Headmaster December 14, 2011 11:02 AM GMT
McCain did say that.

So why did he leave him in at the recent scratching stage?

And why, yet again, has not a single member of the press room spotted this and rung the trainer?
Report The Headmaster December 14, 2011 11:55 AM GMT
Weird Al no go.
Report alansure1 December 14, 2011 9:27 PM GMT
thanks headmaster did you speak to the stable ???
Report Martin pipe returns December 14, 2011 11:11 PM GMT
Any update on Riverside Theatre? NJH has previous with running this sort of ("won't be ready in time")thing ! e.g. Binocular and more recently Dave's Dream in the Paddy P.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 15, 2011 10:42 AM GMT
Yeah i wouldn't mind an update too mpr, as i was thinking about backing it on the day but fear his odds would be much depleted than current on the day if he goes so want to add him to my portfolio for the KG but am fearful i am just throwing money away if i back him!
Report Viva Pataca December 16, 2011 5:09 PM GMT
Is Noble Prince a runner at Kempton?
Report strontium December 16, 2011 5:42 PM GMT
RT is a non-runner http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/12/16/RACING_Theatre.html&BID=465

Does anyone think Kauto may not run if the ground comes up like it has at Newbury and Ascot in recent days? In the past they've tried to avoid soft ground with him (nd it should suit Masterminded)
Report Storm Alert December 17, 2011 12:25 PM GMT
It's a good point.  However the 10 day forecast is mostly Sunny with a couple of days of cloud with low precipitation.  The chances are the ground will be good-soft at worst.
Report johnnyrant December 17, 2011 4:49 PM GMT
I do not like the way the racing media start eulogising about NH horses, and treating them like they are machines. All the hyping of Kauto Star running in the KG... I don't like it, the same way I didn't like the way they did it with Denman. These chasers are putting their necks on the line every time they go out to race and it is tempting fate. I don't think he will win, would rather see KS retired after all his lion-hearted efforts, and just hope to see him return safely.
Report sintonian December 17, 2011 9:19 PM GMT
I kinda see what your saying Johnny. I thought all the talk and coverage dedicated to KS lto before Haydock was a bit unfair and disingenuous on Long Run as he is the current Champ. But then KS went and won!!Laugh So it was justified.

I also thhink there has been scant mention of Imperial Commader amondst all this, particularly when Denman retired.

But tbf to the press, horses like KS and Denman dont come around too often so ..
Report duffy December 18, 2011 10:14 PM GMT
if kauto wins the king george i will never again have it, when, after a below par run from a horse , the trainer comes on and says....he wasn't supposed to be at his peak today, his target is months away.

at haydock kauto was hard fit to give nicholls every chance to prove the doubters wrong, i worry that we will see a far poorer performance from a horse who has already had his big day.....i also take it as a negative of their opinion on MM getting the trip.
Report buddeliea December 19, 2011 12:12 PM GMT
i worry as well Duffy for same reasons as you have just said.Personally,i wanted to see him skip the KG for a real good crack at the Gold Cup.
Still who are we to question Mr Nicholls??
Report judorick December 19, 2011 12:31 PM GMT
still banging on about the Gold Cup? Confused
Report buddeliea December 19, 2011 12:36 PM GMT
not really,just agreeing with duffys post.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 19, 2011 3:28 PM GMT
It is my opinion that LR will not be winning this season. I just can't have it. He looked laboured at haydock. My opnion comes in equal measure from the law of averages and form shown lto.

Ok you can argue that we will see a different horse in the KG same as last year, but will we? Will he really be able to repeat the same as last term in that he showed improvement for the first run to the next? Bearing in mind that last terms first run of the season was a handicap and this terms was a grade 1 i cannot have it. A beating from KS by 8 lengths at the line (the margin was no more than 3 at the last) gives me an opinion that KS and MM will have it their own way on Monday. Mad you might think but i am entitled to an opinion. CC is a major threat too and i have taken some 8/1 the other day.
I am wary of master minded not getting the trip, but at 10/1 the other month i backed him as at that price was willing to find out lol.

Law of averages tells everyone he wont be winning, look at the gold cup winners over the last 20 or so years, i compared just the last 10, we been very very lucky in that we have had horses this last 10 years that have been slightly better than the opposition on offer that particular year. Best Mate won it 3 times, KS twice. But what else do we have, Kicking King, Looks like trouble, See more Business, War of Attrition i can go on, how many of them great horses came out the season after and showed the same level or better form?
Report sintonian December 19, 2011 3:34 PM GMT
Weird logic. LR's seasonal debut this season was infinitley better than his debut last season.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 19, 2011 3:52 PM GMT
Quite possibly it is a little weird. And yes, he may well have showed improved level of form as last terms fto, which only tells me there will be limited improvement on his 2nd outing compared to last term. Like i said, we have been very lucky last few years, i.e BM KS etc, but the same was said of all them other gold cup winners, they were all pretty short prices for the debuts the next term, and win on debut or not, they never quite showed the same level again in their next seasons after winning. But all carried the expectations that they would be better!

Don't get me wrong, i will be very happy for him to come on out boxing day and prove me wrong, a new superstar to emerge would be good for the sport. And i will be taking some of the 6/1 i was offered on him completing the double (KG & GC) but i wont be backing him for the single. The double bet is merely an insurance bet as if i am proved to be wrong and he does win the KG my 6/1 will be no bigger than an evs - 4/5 chance and a nice win lay of him in the GC will lock in a nice profit and ensure i level up with my stakes on what i have already backed in the KG e/w.
Report duffy December 20, 2011 8:33 AM GMT
i don't understand with regards to long run the downbeat attitude toward him...last year he was a baby who ended up winning the KG and GC, now after one run where he wasn't fit and perhaps that's why his jumping suffered because as we know he has his issues in that department and it may be that these issues are compounded when he isn't fit...anyway, after one run all of a sudden he's pretty much had it...kauto has had his big day...long run has been trained for his big day on monday.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 20, 2011 9:27 AM GMT
Never once said Long Run has had it tbf, just said that his proper top season maybe was last term and now he will find it a little tougher as the years progress as does many a top class horse over the sticks and flat!
Report sintonian December 20, 2011 9:41 AM GMT
He is 6 years old ffs! LaughCool
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 20, 2011 10:11 AM GMT
Ok sint, yes he is 6, that is made quite obvious! I stand by what i saying. Lets see who is laughing come Monday afternoon then shall we. It is a horse race, therefore anything can and possibly will happen. Everything fell into place last term, just a hunch that i have that his top season was last season and he wont top it. Maybe because his opposition were relatively out of form or had excuses, Nichols has since said KS wasn't properly finishing off his races, this looked more and more apparent as the season went on being pulled up in his last outing but very well backed. We don't yet know how good MM might be at the trip/kempton he is preferred to go right handed after all and then we have CC, also relatively unknown, a horse that would have pished up in the Haldon gold cup but for that horrendous blunder!

It certainly wont be no cake walk! If it is though, i wont be hiding, i will be getting pi$$ed with family and friends and so don't be surprised im not on please. I am not knocking the horse, i just prefer to go against the seamingly obvious in a race and plump for the e/way alternative in top races, something that as it turns out i am right at times i.e betfair chase. I went the same way with KS too when he was upped to 3 miles for the first time, i remember saying he wont get it in a horse box, how wrong i was, and have since become a big Kauto fan! Just the way i tick with young horses pretending to be the next superstars!
Report Viva Pataca December 21, 2011 6:35 PM GMT
Other than winning a Gold Cup, what similiarities do you see between Long Run, and the other one-off Gold Cup winners you quote: War of Attrition, Kicking King, Looks like Trouble?

And how are you sure so he's not in the Kauto Star / Best Mate category?

I agree with the majority of sentiment on this thread. Long Run is the most likely winner. But a Kauto Star victory would be a fairytale result.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 22, 2011 1:08 AM GMT
I make no similarity with them as far as form is concerned, they all had differing tactics and preps and had differing trainers etc. The one thing a heck of a lot of Gold Cup winners have in common though is that they only won one and were never quite the same after. Now i know he is only 6, and i have already said i would love to see the young boy rout them on Monday and win hard held, as a new superstar would be fantastic for the sport but just cannot see it. I can have a horse come on a ton for a run in a handicap as last term, and as last term no one really new how potentially good LR could be, arguably we still don't but until he has proven it as a 2nd seasoned better than top class individual i.e winning the KG on Monday, then i hold judgement and am ready to back anything else against him!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 22, 2011 1:11 AM GMT
Diamond Harry, slight drift from 18 - 21 but nothing wants to back it, and over £200 wanting to lay at 21, is this significant we think Confused
Report Anaglogs Daughter December 22, 2011 10:11 AM GMT
Haydock to honour Kauto Star with statue

By James Burn racingpost.com

HAYDOCK and Betfair have teamed up to commission a statue of Kauto Star to recognise the brilliant chaser's achievements at the track.

The 11-year-old landed his fourth Betfair Chase at Haydock when he thrashed Long Run last month and sculptor Willie Newton has been chosen to make a bronze of Clive Smith's superstar.


"I am thrilled at this fantastic gesture," beamed Smith. "The horse has really captured the public's imagination and hearts throughout his career, never more so than in the Betfair Chase, and it is an honour to have him recognised in this way."

Kauto Star's trainer Paul Nicholls added: "Kauto Star gave me my proudest day in 20 years as a trainer when he won his fourth Betfair Chase and this is deserved recognition for the great horse. Itwill be a constant reminder of that amazing day."

The two-time Gold Cup winner, who will bid for his fifth King George VI Chase at Kempton on Monday, also won the Betfair Chase in 2006, 2007 and 2009.

Haydock's managing director, Dickon White, reflecting on this year's race, said: "Everyone who was at the racecourse last month to see his victory will recall the race vividly for the rest of their lives.  It was truly one of the most outstanding performances by a racehorse in the modern era."
Report strontium December 22, 2011 2:02 PM GMT
STS - At the prices I think you make a fair point. Some horses are bottomed by a hard Gold Cup and never run as well again. That is one explanation for LR's performance at Haydock. Another is just that he comes on greatly for a first run. But then he had a very hard race at Haydock anyway - will he be tip-top just 37 days after that? There is a history of horses having a hard race in the Betfair then flopping in the King George.

It's a fascinating King George with big question marks over all the players - so you can do worse than to take on a 5/4 shot:

Kauto - regressive. Trained to the minute for Haydock, this is an afterthought. Probably only 2 quality runs in 2 years.
Masterminded - never gone further than 21 f (20 f in the UK/outside novice company). Finds nothing off the bridle.
Diamond Harry - Stuffed by Long Run and Kauto at Haydock when everything was in his favour (flat track, goes best fresh, goes best in autumn). Seemingly well held.
Somersby - not good enough. Only won one 3 runner race since his novice days. Any mistake stops him. Finds nothing off the bridle.
Captain Chris - Never been further than 21 f. Last year's novice form keeps getting hammered. Haldon form ties him in too closely with Medermit and Cornas.
Nacarat - regressive. Seems to have lost the plot. Possible non-runner looking at the market. Well held by DH on collateral form.
Golan Way - no form suggests he's good enough in this company.
Report judorick December 22, 2011 4:00 PM GMT
Yup I think LR is going to reverse the Haydock form and it will be LR and KS in the forecast
Report buddeliea December 22, 2011 5:42 PM GMT
Would agree with that as the first 2 in that order.
The one i think could split them is Somersby.Imo hes the most likely one of the unknown stayers that could get home ok.personally think he could well enjoy 3m round here.Hes ultra consistent in getting placed in big races,and will be carrying my e/w money.
Report sintonian December 22, 2011 6:42 PM GMT
hope you right Budd, backed him at 20's when he beat 1833 at the track earlier in the season. On breeding, he looks like he'll enjoy 3 miles.
Report Anaglogs Daughter December 23, 2011 12:56 AM GMT
Ruby Walsh: I never thought Kauto Star was finished... but Long Run will be too good

By Marcus Townend
L 22nd December 2011

Ruby Walsh is emphatic about who should be feeling the heat most in the countdown to the William Hill King George VI Chase on Boxing Day - and it is not him.
The Irish jockey may be trying to steer national treasure Kauto Star to an unprecedented fifth win in the Kempton race but, he insists, it is amateur rival Sam Waley-Cohen on Long Run who must deal with much greater pressure.
A new hierarchy is being hailed in steeplechasing and, even after Kauto Star's emotional defeat of his younger rival in last month's Betfair Chase, Walsh insists he and one of the greatest jumpers the sport has seen are underdogs.
'Last season Sam was riding the big white hope, now he's riding a superstar,' says Walsh. 'I know Long Run's a family horse but with the tag of a King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner comes that bit of pressure. He seems to be handling it well but it is a different ball game. I know that.'
Indeed, few are better qualified to comment. No other jump jockey competes so successfully at the top level as 32-year-old Walsh.
Success on Willie Mullins-trained duo Boston Bob and Zaidpour at Navan last Sunday made it 16 Grade One wins since the Cheltenham Festival in March when, returning after four months out with a broken leg, he silenced the doubters with a storming success on Al Ferof in the opener.
The 15 wins to follow have been gained despite yet another lengthy lay-off with a neck injury. In the same period, Richard Johnson has had six Grade One wins, Barry Geraghty five and, for all his success, Tony McCoy only one.
The potent ammunition supplied by Mullins and British champion Paul Nicholls ensures Walsh's enthusiasm is undimmed, despite the physical toll and constant danger that saw a mount kick off his helmet at Newbury last month as his prostrate frame was battered by flailing hooves.
'I've had my fair share of injuries, probably more,' says the jockey, whose spleen was removed following a blow to the stomach in 2008. 'Injuries are part of a National Hunt jockey's life. People from the outside don't realise that jump jockeys don't just do it for the money. It's a love, an addiction.
'It's something I live with. When you get hurt, all you think of is the next time you are going to ride a winner. Pain is temporary. Horses have been my life and are all I know. Do I have the temperament to train (when I retire)? I don't know but I'm sure I'll find out. It will be a new challenge but hopefully one I don't have to find out about for a long time.'
Kauto Star has played a massive role in fulfilling Walsh's passion for riding big winners. The duo have secured four King Georges and two Cheltenham Gold Cups in their 16 successes. Their partnership stretches back to a novice chase at Newbury on December 29, 2004.

Rarely does a jockey have a chance to forge such an extended relationship with a mount. That this era is close to an end was emphasised when Kauto Star's stablemate and rival Denman  suffered a career-ending injury this month.
'Kauto Star is just  an incredible horse,' says Walsh. 'With a racehorse, any day can be the end of the road. They are fragile. I never thought Kauto and Denman would last so many years going head to head. It's a testament to Paul Nicholls.'
Walsh must have feared the glory days were over when 11-year-old Kauto Star, under McCoy,  succumbed to six-year-old Long Run in last year's King George. Defeat in the Gold Cup followed and then Kauto Star was pulled up at Punchestown. But now history beckons on Boxing Day as Kauto Star seeks to go one better than the mighty four-time King George winner Desert Orchid.
Walsh insists it is not sentiment that has made him choose Kauto Star over younger Nicholls-trained stablemate and 11-2 third favourite Master Minded, the former two-mile champion chaser racing over three miles for the first time.
Walsh said: 'Master Minded will stay and he has a cracking chance. The plan for him has always been Kempton. The plan for Kauto was Haydock but things have changed. He's been so good at Kempton.
'You were thinking, "Is there another Grade One in Kauto?" but I never thought he was finished. He gives you so much, you never think you've no chance.'
Oh yes, Haydock; the most emotional day of the racing year when calls for the fading Kauto Star to be retired were drowned out as he roared to a first win over Long Run and a fourth Betfair Chase success. It was vintage Kauto Star and Long Run, trained by Nicky Henderson and owned by Waley-Cohen's father Robert, couldn't live with him. The old champion had picked himself off the canvas and bloodied the nose of the upstart who had wrested his titles away. But what of the re-match?
'Kauto was in great nick, probably a better horse than he was at any stage last season, but I didn't think he'd beat Long Run and I don't think he'll beat him in the King George,' admits Walsh.
'That doesn't mean I don't hope he will. I just think Long Run will be a better horse in the King George. Long Run looked a bit ring rusty at Haydock and that was the way he ran. Paul's horses traditionally hit top gear three to four weeks before Nicky's do. Paul's are still going, Nicky's have just caught up.'
Are those just the honest words of a professional? Or could they be designed to heap pressure on Waley-Cohen? Surely not, Ruby.

THE STORY SO FAR
JANUARY 15, 2011 King George VI Chase, Kempton

Kauto Star is 4-7 to secure a fifth King George, but the champion’s jumping lacks fluency for substitute jockey AP McCoy. Long Run, a 9-2 chance, travels smoothly throughout to beat stablemate Riverside Theatre 12 lengths, with Kauto Star seven lengths further back in third.
March 18, 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Long Run is the 7-2 favourite but makes several minor mistakes as Kauto Star (5-1) forges ahead with Denman on the final circuit. But as the trio charge to the penultimate fence, Long Run drives past his older rivals to beat Denman seven lengths. Kauto Star is four lengths further back.
November 19, 2011 Betfair Chase, Haydock

With his future on the line, 6-1 chance Kauto Star is given an attacking, front-running ride by Walsh. Long Run, the 6-5 favourite, holds on stoutly despite three blunders in the back straight but can’t reel in Kauto Star, who goes away to win by eight lengths
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2077697/Ruby-Walsh-I-thought...
Report stevo1 December 23, 2011 1:04 AM GMT
I will give up gambling for rest of year if Somersby wins!
Report buddeliea December 23, 2011 6:35 AM GMT
he will run well imo,should not beat long run though,but could beat Kauto if the Haydock race did any damage.
Report judorick December 23, 2011 9:51 AM GMT
yes there is no reason why Sommersby won't run a decent race and he has always looked a stayer. Indeed I was expecting him to be campaigned at 3 miles plus ever since the Arkle. Anyway, would be a surprise should he win but a good effort is entirely reasonable
Report pires December 23, 2011 11:12 AM GMT
always had somersby down as a non stayer !!!!
Report pires December 23, 2011 11:12 AM GMT
always had somersby down as a non stayer !!!!
Report judorick December 23, 2011 3:39 PM GMT
really he is a tripless one pacer and they tend to be better over longer
Report mr_sykes December 23, 2011 5:26 PM GMT
not beyond KS not finishing the race,cant have him for this after Haydock,could also open the door for a lively outsider to grab a place,a lot of doubts about many of the runners LR should win.
Report duffy December 23, 2011 6:12 PM GMT
^
that just about sums it up for me
Report Anaglogs Daughter December 24, 2011 1:41 PM GMT
Long Run earns my vote to conquer Kauto Star in the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day

The King George VI Chase looks like it will be a classic, so it is all the more disappointing that I'll be sitting it out with none of my regular rides among the eight runners.


By AP McCoy  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/

A year ago I rode Kauto Star while Ruby Walsh was injured and we were well beaten by Long Run into third. He's been an amazing horse, winning this race four times, and for whatever reason, it looks like he was suffering an 'off' season in 2010-11. At Haydock on his return he looked back to his best and you can never discount him.
Having said that, I believe Long Run will take all the beating. A lot of Nicky Henderson's best horses improve for their first run and I'd be surprised if he's not improved a lot from being beaten by Kauto Star at Haydock.
I don't think Master Minded will stay as well as either of those two and if I was to suggest a forecast on the race it would be Long Run to be followed home by Captain Chris.


My best ride at Kempton on Boxing Day is Binocular in the Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (2.35).
He is defending the title he won a year ago when beating Overturn by four lengths. That form was reversed by Overturn at Newcastle this season but I am confident Binocular will have come on leaps and bounds for the run. I schooled him on Thursday morning and he felt in great shape and he came to this race last season after a similarly disappointing run at Newcastle. Overturn can be a tough nut to crack but I am hopeful of victory and reckon Rock On Ruby is my biggest danger.

I start the day on Temple Lord in the William Hill Home of Betting Novice Handicap Chase (1.25). His first two runs were at Ffos Las and I was a bit disappointed he didn't win either. He had been off the track for a long time before the first run, so that could have been a reason. He did win last time at Folkestone, although only he and one other stood up, but he's improving, his jumping is a bit better and hopefully he has a chance in what is a competitive little chase. Our Mick is the one to beat.

Teaforthree is not a bad sort and beat Restless Harry by 3½ lengths at Chepstow last time but he meets three of the best novice chasers in the country in the Williamhill.com Feltham Novice Chase (2.0).

This is a real belter of a race with Bobs Worth, Grands Crus and Silviniaco Conti in it. In all probability the quicker Kempton track won't suit Teaforthree quite as well as Chepstow as he feels like an out-and-out stayer.

Of the other three, we've got Bobs Worth who has not been beaten since second in his first bumper, Silviniaco Conti looks to have improved since he was beaten by Cue Card first time out and Grands Cru. Purely on their hurdling form I'd go with Grands Crus who has looked a natural chaser in both starts over fences.

If Kauto Star wins the King George no one will take much notice of the last race, the Bet With Williamhill.com on Your Mobile Handicap Hurdle (3.40) in which I ride Christoper Wren. He's won his last two races at Leicester and seems to be on the upgrade. Hopefully he has a great chance but Knight Pass, favourite for last season's Cheltenham Bumper, looks well weighted having won at Exeter and then been beaten on dead ground at Sandown





ima_mazed66
24 Dec 11 13:21   











Anyone saying they don't think Master Minded will stay, are you just saying that purely because the horse is yet to go 3 miles or is there anything specific that makes you think so?

It's not like he's going from 2 miles to 3 miles in one step with no evidence of staying anything in between, as the horse has winning form at 2m 4f at Aintree when beating Albertas Run by 9L and also won the Amlin Chase last time at Ascot which is 2m 3f and beat Somersby 3L there. That horse has winning and placed form at 2m 4½f and Master Minded also won the Amlin the year before beating I'msingingtheblues by 16L and I know they maybe aren't the very top notch but they have won and been placed in their fair share of fairly decent races.....plus after coming off the last bend at Ascot it's uphill all the way and takes some getting.

I'm not saying Master Minded definitely will stay but was just interested in any reasons why anyone with a view thought that he wouldn't. Having said that I wouldn't be too surprised if he made the frame and not entirely shocked if he won or went close barring any mishaps. We've seen horses like One Man and Edredon Bleu win it in the past when shorter trips probably suited them better.





Anaglogs Daughter
24 Dec 11 13:40   











Chris McGrath independent.co.uk:

Long Run haunted by a ghost of Christmas past

Inside Track: Boxing Day history beckons after a star is reborn in legendary four-time winner KautoHe stands on the threshold between present and past, life and legend.

As the only horse to win the King George VI Chase four years running, Kauto Star returns to Kempton on Boxing Day already guaranteed a place in steeplechasing lore alongside Desert Orchid, that grey phantom of Christmas past. But a miraculous rejuvenation means that he remains a tangible force for the here and now, as well.

Clive Smith, his owner, knows how perilous that margin can be. In 1966, he patted Arkle on the backside as he was led away. "Goodbye, old mate," he said. He knew that defeat by Dormant must spell the end of a career that remained sacred against all comparison until Kauto Star's fourth win, in 2009, by an eye-watering 36 lengths.

Smith also has distressing memories of Desert Orchid's final appearance, in the 1991 running. The veteran was well beaten when coming down three out, and Smith has long said that he would like to spare Kauto Star that kind of indignity.

And the fact is that many of us, a year ago, could no longer see how some such exit might be avoided. Kauto Star finally seemed in decline. He would have been perfectly within his rights. Not quite three years old when first raced over hurdles, in France, he had become the first jumper to win Grade One prizes in seven different seasons. Back at Kempton, he showed none of his usual gusto as Long Run – not even born when Kauto Star won his first race in Britain, at Newbury's own Christmas meeting in 2004 – apparently gave formal notice of a changing of the guard.

Paul Nicholls, his trainer, was affronted by suggestions that the horse be retired, understandably aggrieved that anyone might presume greater concern about Kauto Star's welfare. But the horse's fans had been terrified by the horse's marrow-shaking fall in the Cheltenham Gold Cup the previous March. It did seem legitimate to fret that any future gains for Kauto Star – for all his relish for his calling – could scarcely justify the implicit risks.

His next performance, back in the Gold Cup, itself contained sufficient vestiges of his pomp to vindicate Nicholls, albeit Long Run ultimately reiterated the new pecking order. When Kauto Star was pulled up at Punchestown, however, the game seemed up. He had now been beaten in four of his last five starts.

Once again, Nicholls and Smith persevered. And they were rewarded, on the horse's comeback at Haydock last month, with a breathtaking revival. Over breakfast, Nicholls had told Ruby Walsh to let the horse bowl along in front. "Do I give him a breather?" the jockey asked. Nicholls knew he had left no margin for error in the horse's fitness. "No," he said.

In extending his Grade One spree into an eighth season, Kauto Star jumped so aggressively that Long Run became dazed by the pursuit, losing his rhythm and dropping away before rallying bravely over the final fences. The place went berserk, and it was easy to indulge Nicholls his pride and emotion. Always so open, even when sorely tested by the turn of events, the champion trainer is entitled to equal candour when proved right. And it had turned out that his faith was not blind.

Nicholls feels now that Kauto Star was never right last season. "He was making a noise, and I said to Clive that you'd give a younger horse a breathing operation," he said. "He was so lethargic. He was never going to win the King George, at any stage. But at Haydock I thought he would from the moment he went to the front."

And so the stage is set for a fourth, classic shoot-out between the old king and his young usurper – so much so that Master Minded, another top-class steeplechaser in Smith's colours, barely warrants a footnote. William Hill, the race sponsors, have favoured Long Run throughout, Nicky Henderson having apparently left him short of his peak for Haydock, with Kempton and Cheltenham in mind. But Nicholls has been cheerfully dismissive of that theory. "You're not going to run a horse as good as him, a six-year-old, in a 200-grand Grade One, and need the race too much," he said. "Long Run looked superb in the paddock. I'm sure he's going to improve, but he's got to find eight lengths with us."

There is a reciprocal certainty in Long Run's owner, Robert Waley-Cohen. "As far as we're concerned, it was a dress rehearsal," he said. "Ours is a tricky horse to motivate and get ready first time out." His silks will as usual be worn by his son, Sam – and Waley-Cohen feels those conspicuous forced errors at Haydock were misleading. "Technically, it was the horse's most proficient display," he said. "He just wasn't quite matching strides with Kauto Star in the back straight. At Kempton last year, the reverse was true. And, unlike Kauto Star, he's never fallen or been pulled up."

Both camps seem adamant that they have the overall momentum, and each would relish seeing off a rival diluting the stature of their own horse. "People normally get behind the reigning champion," Waley-Cohen observed. "They want to see a great champ, see him confirm that he is the real thing. But on this occasion everyone wants to see the old boy have a last hurrah."

No quarter will be sought or given between Walsh, the peerless professional, and a rival who runs a chain of dental practices. But Waley-Cohen believes the unsparing nature of the contest will play to Long Run's strengths. "He was outstanding at Kempton last year, and outstanding in the Feltham [for novices, over the same course and distance] the year before," he said. "There's no opportunity for a breather round there. You just go as fast as you can, for as long as you can. There's no pity, no mercy, in a King George."

Nicholls agrees that it is a myth that Kempton is a pure test of speed. In fact, he reckons it a stiffer test than Cheltenham. "There's no hiding place round there," he said. Nothing else for it, then. They'll just have to run.
Report judorick December 26, 2011 4:23 PM GMT
and people were saying he should miss this race

thankfully they took the right decision!

amazing stuff so pleased
Report strontium December 26, 2011 4:33 PM GMT
Marvellous. He made me cry.
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