Horse Antepost
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Long Run - impressive last year but didn't look over keen at haydock .The jockey stated that the mistakes he made were down to him not concentrating properly. I didn't like it and he looked very fit pre-race. He could easily have lost interest in racing and given his current short odds their looks to be good value elsewhere.
Kauto Star- Looks in better shape this year than last and must have a good chance. Looks to have lost a bit of speed and had a hard race at haydock.
Mastermined- Nicholls has reported that he didn't think his horses were 100% last year and I think this horse will put in a monster effort. Stays 2 1/2m well (it now appears to be preferable than 2m) When 100% he jumps and travels really well. The greats of this race Kauto Star, dessie and Best mate all had a bit of pace about them and given decent ground I think he'll stay and have backed him now and will probably top up if the ground is decent.
Captain Chris- Form just doesn't stand up.
Somersby- Consistent but a placer/follower at this level.
Diamond harry- Don't think he's got over his inury.
Of the others I fancy Planet of Sound to run a big race if he turns up.
I cann't see past Masterminded in this but obviously have some niggling doubts he won't stay but these are compenstated for in the price offered and will have something on Planet of Sound as well if he lines up.
Kauto Star- Looks in better shape this year than last and must have a good chance. Looks to have lost a bit of speed and had a hard race at haydock.
Mastermined- Nicholls has reported that he didn't think his horses were 100% last year and I think this horse will put in a monster effort. Stays 2 1/2m well (it now appears to be preferable than 2m) When 100% he jumps and travels really well. The greats of this race Kauto Star, dessie and Best mate all had a bit of pace about them and given decent ground I think he'll stay and have backed him now and will probably top up if the ground is decent.
Captain Chris- Form just doesn't stand up.
Somersby- Consistent but a placer/follower at this level.
Diamond harry- Don't think he's got over his inury.
Of the others I fancy Planet of Sound to run a big race if he turns up.
I cann't see past Masterminded in this but obviously have some niggling doubts he won't stay but these are compenstated for in the price offered and will have something on Planet of Sound as well if he lines up.
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it has to be long run for me he pissed it last year only a 6 year old he should come on a load from the first run at haydock
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Agree.
Long Run may not have looked great at Haydock re his jumping but it was very reminiscent of his debut last year in the Paddy Power. You have to admire the way he plugged on aswell. If your are backing Long Run you might hope for a bit of rain imo. I backed Somersby after his debut this season for a few quid eachway at 20/1, he is now 16/1, and hope he makes the frame. |
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I'm on POS 250win and 20place.
Hope he goes for this, as I'll trade all the win part |
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The general opinion in this race is that Long Run will have needed his first run and come on for it as this is
what happened last year. This is a fair enough view and obviously may happen ,the problem is that because most people will take this view he is priced up accordingly. It's difficult to believe his true price could be any shorter but if his condition goes backwards since Haydock ,which imo is very possible ,his true price could be a lot bigger. I suppose it comes down to what % chance you think he'll turn up in the same physical and mental as he did last year. My view is that their is only a 33% chance ,which would make him poor value. |
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P Nicholls rp 30/11
"There will be no decision on Kauto Star for another 3 weeks or so: we'll see how he is when it comes to the forfeit stages near the race. Master minded definitely runs" N Henderson said LR was on target for the KG. H.knight re Somersby " the KG is the plan and he's very well" D mccain re Wierd al "he's most unlikely to run" P.Hobbs "Captain Chris has a minor cold at the moment.I wouldn't know whether he will come right in time" "Planet of sound is an unlikely runner if we have others for the race" There seems to be some significant doubt about KS's participation and unless he's in great shape they may not run Estimates of leading contenders running Long Run 95% - would need to get injured Mastermined 94%- as above plus if its very heavy they may give it a swerve Kauto Star 66% - with an estimated 33 % chance of him not running it makes him a difficult AP betting proposition. |
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Paul Nolan, trainer of Noble Prince
"He'll get an entry in the Peterbrough Chase and the Dial-A-Bet-Chase at Leopardstown, which is what we're tentatively leaning towards." So i suppose he's going for the Lexus then Paul  |
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Probably not the Lexus for Noble Prince, I can see him turning out on the sand at Dundalk on a friday night!
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Any news on whether Kauto Stone is a likely runner?
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"Kauto Stone is an unlikely runner but not totally ruled out. He's going to run next week."
Paul Nicholls |
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^Thank you, much obliged.
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Wonder if anyone at Pond House was reading today's paper.
Doesn't sound like too many horses have the race on their agenda. |
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Still think Masterminded is the one to beat in this. The ground looks just on the soft side of good and the race looks unlikely to be a slog.
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A great result for racing, but for all that Kauto is one of the greatest ever, the simple fact is that is you had swapped jockeys on the front two, or even just had B.Gerraghty on Long Run instead of S.W.C. the fairytale would almost certainly not have happened.
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Doubt the jockeys made a difference in this race and kauto star was probably value for a bit more than the winning dist and had the race won quite a way out. Captain Chris would have finished a bit closer but for
being dragged wide at one of the bends. Somersby looked in fantastic condition pre-race and didn't appear to stay. Something appeared to go wrong with Masterminded. Kauto star was clearly the best horse on the day and is an amazing horse. |
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I agree. Different jockeys. Still the same result.
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Yep agree also. KS just superior.
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Wonderful horse, a joy to watch again. Just better on the day.
Long Run looks a real stayer now - I feel the extra 2 1/2 f at Cheltenham is much in his favour. But Kauto is a wonderful champion and true legend. |
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what a day! This is what makes it worth it
spare a thought for Master Minded though, hope he is OK |
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yes Judo. At this stage they say the injury is career threatening but not life threatening. Must be very bittersweet for Clive Smith.
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What happened Master Minded? I missed this? Did he PU?
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I didn't see it on the TV because he was a long way back. Apparently he was struck in to and lame on his right foreleg. He was pulled up.
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thanks, all I heard was that he was being seen by the vet, fingers crossed he can be saved
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The RP report on Master Minded's injury indicates that he will live but his racing career is still uncertain.
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Watching the video, I think MM's jumped into Nacarat's trailing leg about 7 out and that's where he drops off the pace. I wouldn't be surprised if that's where the injury occurred.
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Jockeys
good chance if the riders were reversed, so would the placings have been. Sam never seemed to get Long Run on a good stride for many of the fences, whereas Ruby had Kauton on a lovely stride. Kauto was not quite right last season and although he has sliped a bit. he is still impossible to beat with an amateur rider letting jumping decide the issue. The gold cup looks very interesting. I would not give up on Captain Chris either as he seemed to try to demolish as many Kempton fences as possible and still got 3rd. |
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i have been an ardent fan of kauto for a number of years, always regarding him as the greatest chaser i had ever seen. he showed all those doubters big time yesterday........have been looking at a lay system on ebay for short priced favourites. has anybody purchased this, if so what is your opinion before i buy
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Having just seen the replay again, I have changed my mind. Actually Ruby's tactics reminded me a bit of the sort of surge that Teeton Mill used when he won the king George. From about 5 out till the last Kauton Star really wound up the pace and left Long Run struggling, and jockeys probably made little difference. Long Run may never be quite such a fluent jumper, and good though he is unless Kauto Star deteriorates before Cheltenham, I expect he would prove a bit too good for Long Run again.
Its all about prices etc, and I cannot personally understand why Long Run should be favourite. I just don't see why he should suddenly improve past Kauto Star in the next 11 weeks; the extra trip might help a little but Kauto Star certainly stays very well. Maybe though the Gold Cup winner might be a novice chaser. Grand Crus win at Kempton was in a very fast time and he thrashed two very good novices yesterday with an amazing round of fast fluent economical jumping. if Kauto Star is getting a bit long in the tooth, and Long Run continues to fiddle too many fences, Grand Crus might yet be the one. he certainly travels and stays and jumps, and the usual murderous Gold Cup pace will not be a problem to him. |
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delighted to see Grand Crus is, according to the owner, 70/30 to go for the Gold Cup. He must have a really good chance. He travels so well and seems to jump fantastically.
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where did you read that Cryoftruth?
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Can he have his marbles back?
Still, makes the RSA market interesting  |
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Not when you've had a decent sized bet on him for the RSA it doesn't Stront
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Sorry! don't tear up your ticket just yet. I reckon he'll still need to win the Argento pretty well to run in the Gold Cup, and if they've got any sense he won't even then.
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Pipe's thrown some sensible thinking on the subject:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/12/29/RACING_Crus.html&BID=465 |
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I think that came out before the owners comments though. I'm still hopeful they'll have another think about it but 70-30 in favour of the GC wasn't the news I was hoping for.
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Front page of the Racing Post the other day was the source of the story.
I think he should go. Danger is that maybe he won't stay. If he does he will be hard to beat. |
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Front page of the Racing Post the other day was the source of the story.
I think he should go. Danger is that maybe he won't stay. If he does he will be hard to beat. |