becher chase

It's an intended runner wicketd, quite keen on this horse myself bit of 20s still knocking about but as low as 14s with badbrookes.. plenty of rain yesterday, more heavy showers 2day an forecast 4 plenty of rain Friday nite so the ground could turn soft by Saturday which will suite also has a fair record when fresh. had a nice sighter of the fences last year so hopeful of an improved run this weekend

Abbeybraney for me

10-year-trends for the Becher Chase (http://tinyurl.com/c6lexm5):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-1
6yo: 0-1-4
7yo: 1-1-17
8yo: 2-7-29
9yo: 3-7-49
10yo: 3-2-28
11yo: 0-5-17
12yo+: 1-0-11
8 of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket has accounted for 68% of the total runners.
The only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2001 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-12-73
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 5-12-83
There are no very strong trends on the weights though 3 of the last 5 winners carried 11-5+.
Top Weight: 6FF541FP15 (2-1-10)
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-4-30
Horses racing from 7lbs or more out of the handicap: 0-1-9

Official Ratings
Horses rated 143 to 157: 3-3-16
Horses rated 127 to 142: 3-16-91
Horses rated 112 to 126: 4-5-49
The last 5 winners have been officially rated 133 to 148.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
7 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
7 of 10 winners had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher
5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Hello Bud): 232 (0-3-3)
Classic Chase winner (West End Rocker): 1 (1-0-1)
Topham Chase winner (Always Waining): 170FU (1-0-5)
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Chase in Dec, finishing 042
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Troytown, finishing 764
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown H’cap Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Grand National, finishing P8
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Pat Taaffe H’cap Chase, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing F5
2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing P8

Racing Style
8 of 10 winners (last 7) raced prominently with leaders throughout

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-3-14) has trained the winner three times in the past 6 years and had the runner-up in 2 of the 3.
Dessie Hughes (2-1-3) has trained the first and third in 2008 and the winner in 2009.
Sue Smith (1-1-8) trained Ardent Scout to gain a win and 2 places in the race.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-4) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-8) have each won the race once in the past 10 years.
Irish based trainers (3-3-25) have a good recent record in the race having won it 3 times in the last 6 years.

Price
No strong trends on prices, though 6 of the last 8 winners have gone off shorter than 8/1 but 3 others winners since 2001 have gone off at 25/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes profit of 3.50.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 8 to 10
•    Officially rated 133 or higher
•    Finished in the first 5 on last completed start
•    Has run in the last 45 days
•    Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
•    Run at least 13 times over fences
•    Run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
•    4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)
•    Previous form over the National fences is a positive
•    Tends to race prominently
•    Trained by Paul Nicholls or Dessie Hughes

anywhere i could get the weights for this?

1/46306- Mad Max (IRE) 239  9 11-12  N P Mulholland   153    SP SP SP 
  01PU-34 Rare Bob (IRE) 28  9 11-10  D T Hughes   150    SP SP SP 
  UP/2500- Notre Pere (FR) 265  10 11-6  Barry Potts   145    SP SP SP 
  P/F505-0 Niche Market (IRE) 35  10 11-5  P F Nicholls   146    SP SP SP 
  1-14031 Uncle Junior (IRE) 22  10 11-1  W P Mullins   142    SP SP SP 
  5-02313 Swing Bill (FR) 15  10 11-0  D Pipe   141    SP SP SP 
  0041-04 Always Waining (IRE) 12  10 10-13  P Bowen   140    SP SP SP 
  41U0P-2 Meanus Dandy (IRE) 28  8 10-13  P F Nicholls   140    SP SP SP 
  11000-1 Shakalakaboomboom (IRE) 210  7 10-13  N J Henderson   140    SP SP SP 
  021U-20 Fine Parchment (IRE) 21  8 10-11  C J Mann  N Fehily  138    SP SP SP 
  0/11PB-P West End Rocker (IRE) 21  9 10-10  A King   137    SP SP SP 
  5P/1PP-5 Hello Bud (IRE) 28  13 10-9  N A Twiston-Davies   136    SP SP SP 
  100/0-40 Merchent Paddy (IRE) 62  10 10-9  C Byrnes   133    SP SP SP 
  33231P/ Abbeybraney (IRE) 626  10 10-7  N G Richards   137    SP SP SP 
  P31PP-2 Nicto De Beauchene (FR) 24  10 10-7  V R A Dartnall  A Glassonbury  134    SP SP SP 
  1354/32- Any Currency (IRE) 385  8 10-6  M Keighley  A P Cawley  133    SP SP SP 
  642P-P1 Max Bygraves 62  8 10-6  K C Bailey   133    SP SP SP 
  2111/2-1 Master Overseer (IRE) 31  8 10-3  D Pipe   130    SP SP SP 
  4210-42 Shalimar Fromentro (FR) 20  5 10-3  Nick Williams   130    SP SP SP 
  P30304 Pilgrims Lane (IRE) 28  7 10-2  M Keighley   129    SP SP SP 
  110/116- Sona Sasta (IRE) 262  8 10-1  D Pipe   128    SP SP SP 
  06-1202 Another Palm (IRE) 27  6 10-0  N Meade   118    SP SP SP 
  412-20P Ballyvesey (IRE) 14  6 9-12  P Bowen   125    SP SP SP 
  0/6F21-P Pak Jack (FR) 28  11 9-12  R T Phillips   125    SP SP SP 
  1112PP Sun Tzu (IRE) 14  7 9-12  P Bowen   125    SP SP SP 
  6P5-120 Checkerboard (IRE) 28  8 9-10  Fergal O'Brien

nice one rod

SL or RP web site cards - surely first call zekial ??

Any reason West End Rocker is such a big price for this?

Swing Bill for me jumped well in the topham in april just got outpaced 2 out 3m 2 will suit better 14 good value

Nicto De Beauchene for me .. races prominantly,stable in form, will like the soft going if it rains, and meets most of the trends barring course form and number of h'cap chase wins.

Niche Market should go well but wont want the ground to soft

2 important trends though I suppose!

Even at 13, has to be Hello Bud !

Hello Bud and Niche Market for me

bluebirdfan

I also reckon West End Rocker is a decent price.

I backed WER quite heavily in the national where he was unlucky to get brought down. I was just disappointed with his run on debut this season but I suppose he is entitled to have needed it.

Always Waining had 2 pipe openers over hurdles,back over these fences which he loves, wont see another horse

Always waining really gget the trip - especially if the ground is on the soft side?

Surprised Always Waining is running in the Becher, rather than the Sefton.
I suppose they are maybe "testing the water" regarding stamina for the National.

Whats the going?

West End Rocker looked like he just had a blowout for this at Cheltenham. Choc couldn't wait to pull him up, possibly with an eye on this? Form of that race could hardly be working out better.

Been raining heavily last 2 days around Manchester, is it the same around Liverpool?

I think Alan King has said that he has come to the conclusion that West End Rocker doesnt like Cheltenham and that this is his National horse as he seemed to enjoy the fences until misfortune hit last time.
He's likely to be the only bet for me although if they seriously have the National in mind then winning this is the worst possible way for him to be handicapped for the big one.
Shalimar Fromentro the other one I just cant decide on...only 5 but has finished in front in a longer race already

On the contrary Rod, West End Rocker could do with a big run here to get his rating up. He wouldn't have got in The National off 137 last year.

Had some 16s West End Rocker not a great race, he fits most trends required, just hope he jumps better than he has been?

I agree in that respect Tatie B. 137 is no guarantee anymore so would need to go close in order to get a run imo.

His run last time was abysmal but he was likely to have needed it anyway.

Interestingly, Wayne Hutchinson is 4 from 5 on the horse, so I have talked myself into a saver at 16/1. May play more tomorrow when the ground is known.

Well, the 16/1 has gone, so taken 14s.

Oh he'll definitely get his rating up if he wins Tatie - no doubt about that and in so doing ruin his chance in the National. If you want to win the National in the same season then its much better to be placed here. Remember the case of Mr Pointment anyone?
I'm on anyway in the hope that they might just consider this a more realistic aim anyway.

Billies just sent a mail that they will be 10/1 the field tomorrow if anyone's thinking of backing one of the favs tonight

Does anyone remember BINDAREE who won Welsh National plus a group race at Haydock before winning the Grand National, it just depends as regards the handicappers assessment, whether it's a stopping weight or not.

Sintonian- Just noticed you got WER and last week Carruthers well done, you thought of doing a regular blog?

Even a broken clock tell the right time twice a day, Sint is a lucky guesser imo

Well done Bluebird,Saxon,Tatie and finally Sint on WER pick !!Must now rate strong consideration for GN.

Seriously well done to all backers, he was a tasty ew price in hindsight. About the only horse in the race who was going to relish a stamina test on that ground.

Tatie, WEST END ROCKER did NOT run in the Grand National LAST YEAR.

Correct bazzar. Should read last season not last year. Hope that's better for the pedants.

Why do these big races look so easy on Saturday evening?

Steamship, in the Grand National I had 5pts on WER (posted on Plats thread) as I really felt he would win, but today I had 2pts on, in truth this was more ''in case'' he won as I thought his debut run this season was off putting. Just lucky his price was so big otherwise i'd have not backed him!

Well done I think we saw a big GN contender today in Deep Purple. Anyway will look forward to the early thoughts on Cheltenham next weekend.

Thanks Facts. 20/1 for the West End Rocker is about the right price at this stage for the National.
 
I was taken today by the performance of Deep Purple, who can be backed at 100+ on here. He proved today that stamina is not a problem, and jumps like an old pro. The price suggests that the GN will not be the target, despite Evan Williams stating in the RP stable tour that DP will be given an entry.

After finishing so close with State Of Play, I would have thought Deep Purple is the ideal candidate to go better.