Troytown H'cap Chase - Navan Sun 27 Nov

The Troytown Handicap Chase takes place at Navan on Sunday 27th November and it is a very strong trends race with the majority of winners being unexposed chasers with proven stamina that have won at the track and are prominent in the market.

Trends for the past 10 runnings below (http://tinyurl.com/7h8adtc):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-16
7yo: 4-7-39
8yo: 3-6-41
9yo: 1-6-32
10yo: 1-1-11
11yo+: 0-0-5
7 & 8 year olds have the best record (combined 7-13-80) which compares well to horses aged 9+ (combined 2-7-48).
The only 6yo to win it in the past 10 years was Cloudy Bays (who had already run 16 times over fences and was clearly well in on the day as he won the Pierse Handicap Chase by 14 lengths off 16lbs higher next time out).

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 1-6-51
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 9-17-93
2008 winner, Notre Pere, was the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9 and he subsequently won the Welsh National and the grade 1 Punchestown ****ss Gold Cup.
Top Weight: 36370553494 (0-4-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 133 or higher: 3-6-28
Horses rated 118 to 132: 6-21-92
Horses rated 97 to 117: 1-6-26   
6 of last 8 winners were officially rated between 118 and 129.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had last run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 6F+
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Navan
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 6 to 16 chases
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 chases
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 6 and 9 handicaps)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase
8 of 10 winners were second season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
8 of 10 winners had run in a graded chase (both exceptions were placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Jack The Bus): 13 (1-1-2)
Irish Stallion EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (Wicklow Lad): 1P (1-0-2)
Ulster Grand National winner (Hughies Grey): 4 (0-1-1)
Dara Cassidy Memorial Handicap Chase winner (Tharawaat): 72U7 (0-1-4)
Grand National Trial H'cap Chase winner (Some Target): PU (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish National, finishing 53
2 of 10 winners ran in Navan EBF Novices H’cap Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Woodlands Park Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners ran in the PJ Moriarty Novice Chase, finishing F6
5 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) ran in a handicap chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival, finishing 2P1P3

Trainers
Tony Martin (1-2-6) trained the winner in 2007 and has saddled a placed finisher in each of the last 2 runnings.
Arthur Moore (1-1-7) won back to back runnings in 2000/2001 with Lyreen Wonder.
Peter Casey (1-0-1), Jim Dreaper (1-0-2) and Willie Mullins (1-0-8) have also trained the winner once in past 10 years.
Noel Meade (0-2-17) has managed just 2 places from his 17 representatives.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
There have been no major shocks since 2001 with all 10 winners coming from the first 5 in the betting.
Favourites (3-4-12) have won 3 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes profit of 4.33.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 7 or 8
•    Carrying 10-9 or less
•    Officially rated 118 to 129
•    Finished in the first 5 on last completed outing
•    Ran in the last 30 days
•    Won over 2M 6F+
•    Course winner
•    Run in 6 to 16 chases (winning 1 to 4)
•    Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than 1)
•    Previously contested a graded chase
•    Second season chaser
•    Trained by Arthur Moore or Tony Martin
•    Priced 10/1 or below