Horse Antepost
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Selections announcement on Wednesday, so nearly time to start getting excited. Fingers crossed Snow Fairy makes it there well to defend her crown. If she wins the cup, apparently she'll have amassed more career earnings than Goldikova. Some stat.
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2011 site:
http://www.cxhkir.com/english/hkir2011/main.asp |
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Excellebration still going for the Mile??
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Yes he is, was speaking to Wally Pyrah yesterday and he said Excellebration's connections have accepted the invitation. Cup looks like it will be a tougher race this year with possibly Cirrus Des Aigles, Ambitious Dragon and California Memory from the home team.
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What Europeans are going over?
Any chance APOB will send over a few? Been no word of retirement for any of his 2011 stable stars thus far? And has Mike De **** said anything? Been waiting for Musir to run since his win in Turkey! Who are the local's headline acts? |
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Viva the headline acts are ambitious dragon and california memory. both may go in the cup race though. In the sprint you can still remy on the old boy as nothing much else has stood out. Irian is going for the vase, nothing much stands out in the mile. As the op mentioned the nominations are announced on weds, probably during the happy valley meeting. Looking forward to the day, will be my 4th time and if it lives up to last year it will be another cracking day.
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Last I heard Bated Breath was going for the Sprint. I presume this is still the case
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The following are intended runners, should be able to confirm tomorrow...
Mile - Excelebration, Cityscape Cup - Snow Fairy (could go for Vase), Cirrus des Aigles, California Memory Vase - Red Cadeaux, Dunedin, Trailblazer, Thumbs Up Americain doesn't go. Sprint - Bated Breath, Rocket Man (hopefully), Rich Unicorn, Little Bridge, Entrapment, Joy and Fun, Curren Chan |
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Fato - don't forget Sacred Kingdom in the sprint, may be pushing on in years but probably still be the best from the home team.
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Cup race - selected invites/runners Cirrus Des Aigles, Ambitious Dragon, Victoire Pisa, California Memory, - Byword, Durban Thunder Zazou, Irian
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Mile - Excelebration, Jimmy Choux, Sahpresa, Xtension, Rajasman, Beauty Flash, Able One, Destined For Glory, Flying Blue
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Sprint - selected runners/invites; Rocket Man, Bated Breath, Sacred Kingdom, Society Rock, Curren Chan, Lucky Nine, Little Brige, Regally Ready, Entrapment
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Vase - selected runners Snow Fairy, Shareta, Dunaden, Mighty High, Jakkalberry, Campanologist, Mr Mrdici, Thumbs Up, Silver Pond, Vadamar, Red Cadeaux.
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The Cup is very interesting. My shortlist would be as follows:
Cup - Ambitious Dragon, CdA, Victoire Pisa Mile - Excelebration Sprint - Rocket Man, Little Bridge Vase - Snooooooo Fairyyyyy, Dunaden, Vadamar Campanologist and Red Cadeaux are interesting. I can't see Red Cadeaux having the class to beat her stablemat though.. |
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[i]EXCELEBRATION will miss next month's Hong Kong Mile after a dirty scope and will next appear on a racecourse under the care of Ballydoyle trainer Aidan O'Brien.
The Marco Botti-trained star three-year-old, who won the Group 1 Prix du Moulin in September and chased home Frankel in the Queen Elizabeth II last month, will travel to Ballydoyle just before Christmas.[/i] |
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And now Snow Fairy. A real disappointment.
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Pity about Excelebration and Snow Fairy but it doesnt half open up those two races with 5/1 and 6/1 the field at the mo . I thought the HK horses were in for a modest year this year with all three hotpots losing on Trials day but the above two bankers gives them a squeak in those races and they may yet come up with a local winner or two
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Stellar - cold light of day time, the hotpots on trials day had good reason. AD was running over a mile and giving all runners bar 2 5lbs, he got a shocking ride on the pace 4 wide all the way and still only got beaten a short head, Xtension may be the one to take out of the race for the mile as he was drawn 12 and was beaten 3/4 length.
California Memory was also a very unlucky runner in the cup trial, again giving 5lbs to all runners. Thumbs Up, the winner, was having his first run over 2000m since coming 2nd to Collection 2 years ago,apparently they were having a right go at this race as he is a known bleeder. Irian, who was narrowly beaten by Snow Fairy in the cup last year was 3rd. California Memory didn't get the run of the race, but that's the trouble with hold up horses. Entrapment did have his bubble burst, simply not good enough. Think both AD and CM have very good chances in the cup. The vase is wide open now SF is out, bet they wish they'd entered Irian in that one now. All interesting and a big shame SF and Excelebration are out, but will still be an excellent day. |
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HK Accie , there is a lot of merit in what you say.AD was not desperately unlucky in the Mile trial as was suggested in the Racing Post , the tactics may have been flawed for sure and not playing to his strengths but I was still disapointed in him after the wow factor of his seasonal debut over 7f . Guyon hit him 7/8 times in his last eight strides so he was all out and getting a hard race to boot , for me he has it to prove again on Sunday week. California Memory was like watching a car crash , from 6f out you could see that Chadwick had two chances of extricating himself from the pocket Beadman had put him in and he was probably unlucky not to win in the circumstances although it is hard to be definite on that point. Mr Medici got no run in his trial and might not be too far away in the Vase whereas it is hard to see Thumbs Up improving on his seventh place in the race a couple of years ago. Xtension was certainly the eyecatcher in the Mile trial although I have heard a suggestion that he is becoming quirky in himself especially coming out of stalls. Thought Little Bridge won very snugly in the Sprint trial and he rather than Sacred Kingdom could prove the best local hope in the Sprint where the local team is noticeably poor compared to normal.Bottom line , if Rocket Man and Cirrus Des Aigles bring their A game they will be very hard to beat whereas the other two races now resemble lotteries.
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Stellar, I still think Sacred Kingdom is still the top local sprinter, gave Entrapment 12lbs over 1000m and was beaten just 3/4l FTO this season, so on a line he has the beating of Little Bridge. They have certainly laid him out for this race, but I suppose if Rocket Man brings his A game then he will be very hard to beat, but will he after Japan? CDA did get beaten in the race last year, do you think he's had a hard season? The local horses have had the benefit of the summer break and they are no mugs. Will be waiting for the draws before deciding on the Mile and Sprint, going will be perfect as only a bit of rain expected on Monday and Tuesday, just getting a bit cooler.
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Campanologist
10/1 looks good.Stable won this last year. |
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Sprint:
Rocket Man is rated so far above the rest of the field, as mentioned, if he brings his A game and isn't drawn badly he should win. 3/1 with Hills isn't bad odds. On recent form I like Curren Chan - beaten a few of the field. Bated Breath could be a spot of value at 10s. In 3 of his last 4 races he's finished 2nd in G1s, all by small margins. Society Rock beat him earlier in the season but that was on Soft. The form was reversed on Good. Looks like he goes well fresh too. He's also proven he can travel with the trip to Woodbine. I'd put Little Bridge as an outsider. Vase: This is a proper minefield and I can't be confident about any pick. Campanologist's recent form is solid, and Frankie on board gives me confidence - he has a good record in this meeting. It's interesting that Corals are dodging Silver Pond - they marked him as fav ever since their prices went up, so this can't be driven by a big bet. Trailblazer is the market mover. Mile: Xtension has had a good prep for this. I also like Apapane - triple crown winning Japanese filly, and she gets an allowance. At 18/1 I think she;s a bit of e/w value. Cup: CDA was beaten fair and square last year, and I just don't think he's good value at the odds. Irian has had a good prep, came 2nd last year and is good e/w value IMO. However I think California Memory will be my main bet at the odds. I think it's hard to seperate him and Ambitious Dragon on what I've seen, but one is 11/4, the other 10/1... :) I think Byword has a chance but I don't rate the rest of the field. |
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Can you confirm if Sichuan Success is definite runner in the Mile ?
The odds-compiler of Korral flagged this one up on twitter, and the horse got no run whatsoever lto, finished full of himself and so I have backed at 28/1. You can still get 12/1 and watching the replay (youtube) that still looks a fair price.! |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB0WKLN4fGM
No.10 Yellow Jacket on the rail in 5th/6th |
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Sint, to watch the best replays use the hkjc website, just search for any horse name and the form can be looked up, every race the horse has run can be watched. SS was really fancied lto, was sent off fav, carried 6 lbs less than the first 2, no news as to him being pulled out.
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HKA, CDA has only had ten runs in 2011 coming into the HK Cup which is a light season compared to 2009 when he had 14 runs before only going down by a length in the Vase. The horse thrives on hard work and has got better each season the longer it goes on . Nick Mordin has a theory that he is vulnerable off a break and runs better backing up within 2/3 weeks or so. That said , he ran to a similar level in 2009/2010 in HK as he had back in Europe so he holds his form well on his travels . He has improved 10lbs this year in Europe on his 2009/2010 form so all in all I will be very surprised if he gets beat on Sunday . Hopefully the locals will steam into AD and CM on Sunday and CDA becomes a backable price ....
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Unfortunately the locals know International racing as we get plenty of simulcast racing to watch and bet on from around the globe these days, they won't let CDA go off too long, the champions day was one of the simulcast days. I do suspect there will be a mass exodus though if AD gets turned over though just like there was in 2009 when Collection got beaten in the cup. I'll be happy with the same result as last year with 2 of the 4 winners!
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HKA ,I was fairly underwhelmed with the local horses on trials day leaving Sha Tin thinking they would struggle to get a winner on the big day but the defection of Snow Fairy and Excelebration hasnt half opened up the Mile and Vase leaving it open to the locals to sneak a win. Dunaden is 7/1 fav to win the vase , I doubt the fav has ever gone off as high as 7/1 in the history of HK racing or even 6/1 the field in the Mile ! Jimmy Choux is better going left handed otherwise he would have an obvious chance in the Mile , Rocket Man now out to 3/1 in the Sprint is starting to resemble value as it is his race to lose quite frankly . What price will CDA go off on the local tote HCA ?
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Interesting question stellar, last year snow fairy was smashed in just prior to the off and started fav, which really fooked me off! I think it will be close between CDA and AD, depends where the syndicate money goes.I'm not committing to the sprint until the draw tomorrow, I know RM is the best in the field but Sacred Kingdom has been prepared for this race and I'd love to see the old boy do it, the roof would come off! Will you be attending on sunday?
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cheers HK.
Someone on ATR earlier said Curren Chan is the NAP in the Sprint. |
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Japanese sprinters have as bad a record as European sprinters in the Sprint generally so CC is no nap material . Also , Japanese horses suffered major delays in transit to HK last Friday so would be a little wary of taking too strong a view on them . Will be in attendance on Sunday HKA , will still be surprised if AD doesnt go off favourite but it will be interesting !
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God work stellar will be my 4th time attending, I'm sure AD will go off fav. are you at the valley tonight for the start of the fun?
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Sint - Douglas very sweet on SS, just saw him interviewed on TV, also on AD.
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Cheers mate. Have 28/1 about him but watching his run lto think 12's aint a bad price tbh.
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Mile is wide open so a very good price indeed.
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HK, do you have any idea as to what the going might be ? I'd be interested in Vadamar if there was some cut in the ground ..
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No rain forecast, we've only had a sprinkle in the last month so it won't have cut unless the forecast is wrong. Getting cooler for the weekend, you can check the forecast on the Hong Kong Observatory
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Not good for RM or SC.
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Nothing huge to report in the draw, except the sprint. RM, SK and CC all drawn in the car park, along with bated breath.
SS drawn 13 of 14 in the mile, and Irian 10 of 10 in the Cup. Love Rod Colletts response: Rodolphe Collet, trainer, Sahpresa (8) “I am happy with number 8. It’s better than number 9, which I picked last year. I seem to make some progress every year but I wish I was improving faster. I am told that 8 is a lucky number. Why don’t they give me the winner’s prize money straight away then?” |
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Havent really looked into these races as yet.
I like Saphresa from 8...should run her typically gallant race. 6/1 eachway is the bet of the meet for me. The draw is fairly important in the Cup as its only 150m to the first bend. I'll need to check track reports and local info to see how he's getting on but Cirrus Des Aigles looks nap material from 2. That's a helluva time he clocked at Ascot the last day and on very quick ground. Should get the run of the race from 2 and hopefully be a bit too powerful for the locals...speaking of which stalls 4 and 5 have the best record in the Cup and Ambitious Dragon in 5 looks absolutely laid out for this. Hong Kong Derby / QEII is an impressive double. only vengence of rain achieved that in recent years and we all know how top class he was. The Vase is a International rogues gallery....like dunaden but he might be running out of track near the business end of the race. Will give this race a miss unless I have a eureka moment for someone...odds look quite tasty for exotics. Sprint...the draw is essential. but the quality is sooo lop sided with all the top horses out wide. what a mess. Will come down to whose day it is. Curry Chan looks good but out of curiousity.....what on earth are Fanshawe (bit far from home imo) and Murtagh doing here?????? Surely not. Unless they're going to try something new with him and take advantage of the draw then I dont see the point. |