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Lots of good local word for entrapment and Xtension. I struggle to see how entrapment can win on recent form. Xtension I think has a cracking chance if he doesn't mes about in the stalls.
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Campanologist
14/1 at Hills looks cracking value. |
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Any updates from trainers in the 12f race ..
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saturday night should be fun. have the office christmas party at Twickenham stadium, then home for the ufc jones vs machida then as soon as thats done...Hong Kong :)))
will have to skip the sunday afternoon racing!!!! |
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sounds it ELG
![]() Just wanted to here how Vadamar has settle in. He is the only 3yo in the field and at this time of year, bearing in mind he is a 4yo not long from now, the weight advantage must be a right help. Trainer won this race 2years back with Daryakana. |
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have you tried the south china racing post site as yet?
http://bit.ly/sh0Ekv The Aga Khan always saves 1 for this meeting. |
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I think thats what you wanted to hear imo.
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yep nice one cheers.
Hopefully there will be an update tomorrow from connections. At 8/1, he's gotta be worth a smash eachway. |
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Vadamar isn't 4 until March 16th, so although he'll be 4 in a couple of weeks in the eyes of racing, it'll be 3 and a bit months before he actually is.
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From trackwork looks - Silver Pond in the vase is a big plus, Curren Chan looks like the delays in transit have affected most. Japanese commentators think their best chance is Apapane. CDA is currently 3rd fav on the HKJC, but not a huge amount in the win pool.
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Looking forward to tomorrows racing at Sha Tin. Apapane is the the only horse I've backed so far. I backed her a few weeks ago in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup when she got touched off by Snow Fairy, her stamina just faded in the last half furlong. The fact she is being dropped back in trip I think is a plus and her race record has been pretty consistent over the last two years beating Buena Vista and running Snow Fairy close twice makes the 20-1 look massive. The trainer and connections seem very confident that she will run a big race, her preparation has gone very smoothly from what it says on the HKJC website track notes.
The Vase looks another wide open race, there are a couple I like the look of but the one I think I will side with is Vadamar. This race has been the plan for a while from what I gather and De Royer-Dupre has had a very good record at Sha Tin over the years. De Royer-Dupre has expressed a number of times that Vadamar is a good ground horse so conditions should be perfect. Vallee Enchantee won the same race at Longchamp as Vadamar did in October before he won the Hong Kong Vase, so I hope the same happens again! Lucky Nine is the one for me in the sprint, he looked a bit unlucky in Japan getting blocked on the rail when he was making his big move. Whether he can turn the form around with Curren Chan is another matter but I think he is worth a bet with a good draw and the fact he seems to break well from the gates, which could be critical tomorrow. Cirrus Des Aigles looks nailed on for the Cup but the odds are a bit too skinny for me. His form this year has been sensational and he looks like he's getting better and better with age. If he brings his A game tomorrow he will be very hard to beat. The draw has worked out a treat for him this time so he should be able to sit close to the pace which he likes. At EW odds Pure Champion could run a big race, he's not that far behind some of the home team and might improve again with another crack at 10f. Good luck with all your bets tomorrow! |
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I was alays under the beliefe that Vadamar want some cut in the ground tbh. He did win on Good lto, and I have backed him regardless due to the price and trainer record.
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Alain de Royer Dupre, trainer, Vadamar (Vase)
Vadamar followed Byword on the turf track on Thursday morning with big race jockey Christophe Lemaire in the stirrups. A typically laid back Byword did not help the Alain de Royer Dupre grey colt to set record fractions but the French trainer was pleased all the same: “Our horse started far behind the other horse and would probably have passed him if Christophe did not restrain him a bit in the end. I don't mind at all though. Vadamar looks great, moves well and I have absolutely no reservation about his level of fitness for Sunday's race. The ground will suit him too.” Personally I feel Dalakhani's normally prefer a bit of cut in the ground but watching Vadamar and his action he looks more of a good/fast ground horse. |
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My picks...
Vase: Trailblazer 10/1 eachway. Like his form...summer break then 3 nice runs.....last run was a very respectable 4th in the Japan Cup. His trainer Yasutoshi Ikee is simply outstanding at G1 and International level. Supreme. He's trained some of the best to win the best in the Japan and abroad. Even won this race back in the day. Nice switch with the jockey too. Never liked Yutake Take so switching back to Ando who won a red hot G2 Handicap on him is a very positive move. Icing on the cake was his breathtaking gallop earlier in the week. Quite sweet on him. Sprint....just dont know.....Admiration in the first time blinker is interesting...but I'll pass. Mile: Sticking to Sahpresa eachway 7/1. Been running well whole season and I thought she was top class in the Sun Chariot with that blistering turn of foot to swamp them in the final furlong. Came from a mile back last time in Japan so hoping for a good showing here. Cup: Cirrus Des Aigles or Ambitious Dragon....him....I'll play CDA and small play on the RFC between the two. |
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gents are there markets available on here for this? Cheers
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Well no joy for me.
I have to say some of these Aussie jocks are phucking shocking,imo. |
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SINTONIAN, why is it that jockeys who ride regularly in Britain, tootle along at the back and EXPECT their horse to fly like PEGASUS against seasoned group one horses, MOORE and HUGHES.
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probably because more often than not you get a decent gallop over here. I have lost count at the amount of slow run Group 1's I have seen abroad this season. In Aus,France and HK.
If you referring to Dubawi Gold .. he is always ridden like that. |
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Vadamar was very disappointing, didn't break well and never travelled. Lucky Nine ran a cracker, he came out the gates awkwardly but Brett Prebble didn't panic and got a perfect run down the straight and finished it off with strong sustained run. All the Japanese runners ran flat, maybe the travel problems they had getting to Hong Kong was the cause of their poor performance. The Cup was another one of those slow paced international races that seems to keep happening these days. I thought I had a chance with Pure Champion dictating the pace but he never picked up like he did in his last race and was one paced. Cirrus Des Aigles was disappointing again at Sha Tin, track doesn't seem to be his cup of tea!
Overall happy to come out of it with a profit but there were some very iffy rides to say the least. |
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Well done with Lucky Nine Mr Dinos - a good pick. You just cant ignore the HK form in this. I had small change on him but was committed to Curren Chan in the antepost betting. No Japanese horses placed did they? And arguably they had some strong form coming into the race - the travel issues must have played a part. Trailblazer was the only one on a different plane so he didnt have the same excuse.
A fairly poor year for me- just got the Cup right with California Memory and Irian. Unfortunately I didn't stake as much on CM as I did on my selections for the other races, as was very wary that the local HK market must know better than me when it came to CM vs AD! I'll learn from that one... Dunaden looked very good in the vase. I completely underestimated him. The odds discrepancies were huge - Campanologist 9/4 there, 10/1 here. Did I hear correctly that California Memory was 66/1 in HK?! |
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In DUBAWI GOLD'S race the horse which raced in second place went and won the race, never more than 5 lengths off the pace.
RED CADEAUX had only 2 horses behind him until MOORE decided he needed to be closer after the home turn, meanwhile DUNADEN had been 4 lengths closer to the pace and had MUCH more in reserve for the finish, RED CADEAUX ACTUALLY got in front of DUNADEN but had shot his bolt in trying to make up ground after the home turn, two poor rides and if a horse is always ridden in such a way, isn't it time to try different tactics, especially 1 group one races? |
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Cheers FatoteSport, it was another good performance from Lucky Nine, really like the way he finishes his races and Brett Prebble deserves a lot of credit for his ride. I backed him in the BMW Champion Mile earlier on in the year when he nearly beat Xtension, hopefully they will give him another crack at a mile race next year!
Good picks FS with California Memory and Irian. The Jockey Club Cup showed it was the form race with the winner Thumbs Up coming second in the Vase as well. I chose the wrong one from that race unfortunately. Dunaden and Red Cadeaux ran superb races, I didn't think the ground would suit them at all with it being on the quick side but they showed the Melbourne Cup was a good race this year. Loved the way Dunaden stuck his head out and pinged his ears back when he got to the front, a real gutsy horse. Cityscape was another who ran blinder on ground he wouldn't of liked. It's a shame there wasn't any rain around, I think it would have made betting slightly easier!!! |
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fair point Bazzar.
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Some crazy odds on course at Sha Tin today , Campanologist and Vadamar were way too short in the Vase , Xtension in the Mile was just over even money , Little Bridge was around 7/4 in the sprint - all nutty stuff with value out the window . The best example of all was Able One at 66/1 having been around even money last year when withdrawn at the start . Hadnt done a whole lot wrong since except it appeared to run poorly in the Trial when he was restrained by Beadman inexplicably for a horse who likes to go forward . HKA did warn me about late money but I got sick of the sight of 'green' on the tote board ( which denotes late significant money )on horses I backed as they were good value at the time . In the last 3 mins before the off , Silver Pond went from 20/1 to 5/1 , Rajsaman went from 40/1 to 15/1 and Cirrus des Aigles went from 10/3 to 12/5 , not that it mattered what their SP was in the circumstances when they all got beat - Silver Pond would certainly have been second with a clear run , Rajsaman fell out of the stalls and had no chance thereafter while Cirrus ran a bit flat but got a far from inspired ride from Soumillion. It was startling how Ambitious Dragon faltered late on but he did have a hard race in the trial and maybe he is better over shorter the way he ran today ? Good to see an Irish bred sprinter break the Australian monopoly on winning the HK sprint. Overall , the results were a little disapointing with some of the stars failing dismally , most notably AD , CDA and Rocket Man. There was no standout performance and no new stars were born although it was nice to see the local jockey Chadwick atone for his nightmare in the trial on California Memory.
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Is there any way to bet on the HK tote from the UK?
Cityscape, the highest rated horse in the mile, was a nuts 32/1. I know he'd have preferred rain, but at those odds was surely a spot of value! Dubawi gold 102/1 and within a neck of 3rd. In the sprint Bated breath 106/1, Sole Power 181/1, SocRoc 148/1. Good reasons why you wouldn't back them at UK bookies odds (sole power a 5f horse, Bated breath badly drawn) but those odds are temptingly inflated. |
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The HK Jockey Club have been trying for years to have 'co-mingling' of betting from all over the world into their pools but have met resistance from their Govt. There is now talk of having an offshore presence to achieve this purpose as their frustration mounts
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Sintronian, you did stipulate that "SOME" of the Australian jockeys were shocking, but overall "MOST" of them were excellent, 3 Australian jockeys produced 1st and 2nd in the VASE, 4 Australian jockeys produced 1st 2nd and 3rd in the SPRINT, 2 Australian jockeys produced the 3rd in the MILE and in the cup 2 Australian jockeys produced 2nd and 4th.
I am English so am not bragging for Australian jockeys, just wish "OUR" jockeys would try to improve any skills they MIGHT have and rid themselves of this complacency and get some PRIDE. HUGHES, MOORE and several others can't be bothered to work out how to win and DEPEND on every other horse in GROUP ONES to fold and give up when challenged, but because of all the ground they have had to make(because of lack a daisical starts, especially with MOORE, watch him on PRESVIS it'll break your heart) up in getting into a position to challenge. |
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the ride on Dunaden was excellent.
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