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Can't Catch Me
16 Nov 11 12:41
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Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 28,297 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
Sad news that HF is a non runner, but this now makes it an interesting betting race.

Cannot believe Oscars Well is 5/2. Whilst I respect Pittoni as an improver, I cannot, for the life of me, work out why he is shorter than Oscars. And alot shorter in places. OW had the perfect prep race last time and should be spot on for this.
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Report apieceofcake November 16, 2011 12:43 PM GMT
Thousand Stars the horse to beat imo
Report Can't Catch Me November 16, 2011 1:09 PM GMT
I like Thousand Stars alot as a horse apoc, and he was very close to making my TTF list. But he was on the go until well into the summer, and will surely need this. Very tough against a race fit rival who beat him last season.

Also think the horse hasnt got the speed for 2m anymore.... wants two and a half plus.
Report sintonian November 16, 2011 1:55 PM GMT
Oscars Well really needs to be winning this race if he is to have any pretensions of going back to Cheltenham in March. Harringtons horses have turned a corner since his last run and whilst I was initially disappointed he got beaten by Kalann, it is best to give him the benefit of the doubt as the trainers stats for October were not pretty.

So Young & Thousdand Stars .. presumably they wont be quite as forward given they expected HF to be running in this .. but that is a guess ..
Report sintonian November 16, 2011 1:58 PM GMT
Should say end of October/early Nov. Trainer had 4 winners and several placed since Oscars last run which is a lot better than the previous weeks.
Report Howdi November 16, 2011 2:01 PM GMT
he had the speed to finish 4th in the champion Happy
Report Howdi November 16, 2011 2:02 PM GMT
he had the speed to finish 4th in the champion Happy
Report Howdi November 16, 2011 2:02 PM GMT
he had the speed to finish 4th in the champion Happy
Report Howdi November 16, 2011 2:03 PM GMT
why that came out three times i have no idea
Report sintonian November 16, 2011 2:15 PM GMT
CCM, i've decided to back him aswell. I would not have entertained the idea with HF running but now that he isn't ..

handicapper actually put OW up 3lb for his run lto which shows he is going forwards, Thousand Stars is rumoured to be aimed for 3 miles, So Young is overrated imo, which leaves Pittoni who has gone from 131 to 151 in his last two runs so we shall seewho is the biggest improver.
Report Can't Catch Me November 16, 2011 2:38 PM GMT
Fair point Howdi. But the Champion is obviously an end to end gallop and still hugely about stamina. This race will be probably be run at a dawdle and end up being a bit of a sprint, which wont suit him imo.

Nice won sint. No wouldnt have backed him with HF in the race either.
Report Mr Eboue November 16, 2011 2:53 PM GMT
I have just placed my 4th biggest ever bet on the well.

Ladbrokes go 5/4 pittoni! LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh

I'm on at 5/2 and fully expect a very good run.
Report Howdi November 16, 2011 3:07 PM GMT
eboue balls deep Silly
Report Mr Eboue November 16, 2011 3:11 PM GMT
I am indeed BALLS DEEP INTO THIS CERTAINTY
Report sintonian November 16, 2011 3:11 PM GMT
I always get worried when people say stuff like that. It usually ends up in embarassment Cry
Report Mr Eboue November 16, 2011 3:22 PM GMT
What has pittoni done to deserve such a price?
Report sintonian November 16, 2011 3:24 PM GMT
Won his last 4 races.
Report Mr Eboue November 16, 2011 3:33 PM GMT
Beat nothing though in small fields.

I'd fancy a few to beat pittoni home on sunday.
Report sintonian November 16, 2011 3:36 PM GMT
I dont fancy him either Eboue but he is unbeaten in 2011 and run out an impressive winner of his last two hurdles races. I kind of see why he is fav but as discussed we'll be backing Oscar. Lets hope he does the bizzo.
Report Mr Eboue November 16, 2011 3:37 PM GMT
Indeed.
Report tinkler November 16, 2011 4:51 PM GMT
Pittoni looks very short after winning a couple of weak races. I fancy Oscars well for the Champion Hurdle
where a fast pace will suit him down to the ground also he's a well balanced horse who will benefit from the
down hill section. The English 2m hudlers look weak to me and if HF doesn't give his running I'd expect him
to go close. 5/2 is too big in a race like this, the only reservation is that he isn't likely to get a fast pace and Pittoni will be able to dictate. Hopefuuly the fact that the race looks likely to be run on soft will
negate this.
Report BJG November 16, 2011 5:27 PM GMT
Cannot i repeat cannot have Pittoni as fav in this, should be 3rd fav behind OW and TS imo
Report tinkler November 16, 2011 6:32 PM GMT
Like the fact that Solwhit has won this the last 2 years and he was a horse who was effective over a longer distance like OW. He also looked in very good condition in his last race, well muscled up with a nice shine on his coat, it just looked like he blew up. Backed him again and could see him winning this well and his price
collapsing for the CH, especially with some doubts starting to develop about HF's condition.
Report Albion Dan November 16, 2011 7:28 PM GMT
Really can't understand why Oscar isn't fav for this!
Report resner not lesnar November 16, 2011 8:45 PM GMT
To be honest I'm more worried about Thousand Stars than Pittoni.
Report ilikewavingatbuses November 16, 2011 9:41 PM GMT
seems most of us are on the same page which can mean only one thing.....



pittoni will winLaugh


OW for me, crazy price, needed last time!
Report ilikewavingatbuses November 16, 2011 9:42 PM GMT
1000 stars too is big and IF READY has obvious chances!


gl
Report Can't Catch Me November 17, 2011 11:15 AM GMT
I sense a gamble taking place....
Report sintonian November 18, 2011 10:41 AM GMT
So Young has been taken out. Looks like a 4 runner race.

I could envisage OW making the running here
Report sintonian November 18, 2011 10:51 AM GMT
I am hoping there is not much more rain, has been plenty this week and must be a concern about waterlogging ?
Report Can't Catch Me November 19, 2011 8:14 PM GMT
Market looking much more realistic now.

2/1 all 3 principals.
Report Mr Eboue November 19, 2011 8:32 PM GMT
2/1 still a remarkable price to my eyes.
Report Can't Catch Me November 19, 2011 8:53 PM GMT
Me too mate. TS the only one he has to beat imo. Mullins is flying. Still think he will need this tomorrow.....
Report Mr Eboue November 19, 2011 9:11 PM GMT
Do I put all my winnings on a liverpool win @ Chelsea?

If they defend like they did against us Suarez will have a field day!
Report Can't Catch Me November 19, 2011 9:41 PM GMT
I definitely wouldnt do that mate!!! I'm probably too close to us to look at it objectively, but cant have us as a betting proposition at the minute. Just no idea which Liverpool are going to turn up. And if KD keeps persisting with Carroll and hendo, we'll struggle.
Report Albion Dan November 19, 2011 11:19 PM GMT
Surely 1000S will need the run and is better over further? Also I just think Oscar is better than him ha.
Report GoldCupWinner November 20, 2011 1:56 AM GMT
World hurdle winner in this race tomorrow :)
Report GoldCupWinner November 20, 2011 1:56 AM GMT
World hurdle winner in this race tomorrow :)
Report JOCI Club November 20, 2011 2:21 PM GMT
Impressive stuff from Thousand Stars - could it be Hurricane Fly was withdrawn because this fella was galloping all over him at home?
Report sintonian November 20, 2011 2:23 PM GMT
No excuses for Oscars Well there today. A little disappointed I talked myself into backing him because when he got beaten by Kalann on debut my opinion was he was not Champion Hurdle material, but when Hurricane Fly was taken out thought it worth a shot at 5/2  .. oh well.
Report sintonian November 20, 2011 2:24 PM GMT
Quite possibly Joci, Mullins did say HF was not right.
Report JOCI Club November 20, 2011 2:28 PM GMT
Good ride I think, utilising the horse's undoubted stamina. He didn't look short of a few gears there either.
Report tinkler November 20, 2011 2:52 PM GMT
OW had the race set up for him but didn't look to keen to go past and I didn't like his attitude.
TS looks physically to be a better horse this year than last and could chase home HF in March ,I cann't see
them going for the world hurdle after that.
Report apieceofcake November 20, 2011 4:09 PM GMT
OW should not be written off imho.

Decent ground and an end to end gallop in the Champion hurdle should see a big improvement. He may even start a big price if he keeps getting turned over in Ireland in the meantime.
Report Mr Eboue November 20, 2011 5:39 PM GMT
very dissapointing.

Wouldnt be suprised if we see him in a novice chase after Christmas.
Report unclepuncle November 20, 2011 5:59 PM GMT
Oscar Wells should have always gone chasing straight away this season but even now Harrington seems committed to him staying over hurdles form the rest of this year.
Report sintonian November 20, 2011 6:30 PM GMT
I think she'd know best tbf Uncle LaughCool

Cant quite get my ahead around the attitude comment from Tinkler. OW got beaten by a better horse who is rated a fair bit higher than he is. He simply was not good enough and I didn;t see much wrong with his attitude tbh. In fact, after it was obvious he would not win, Pittoni was rallying on the inside but Oscar fought back to beat him 2 1/2 lenghts. Perhaps OW could do with a step-up in trip.
Report sintonian November 20, 2011 6:49 PM GMT
Ruby Walsh and Thousand Stars made all the running to land the Ladbrokes.com Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown.

Willie Mullins' grey was sent straight into the lead by Walsh and the well-backed 5/4 favourite jumped impeccably throughout the two mile contest.

A fine leap at the last sealed the victory, with the Grade One contest his sixth success over hurdles and his second in a row after a French Champion Hurdle win in the summer.

Jessica Harrington's Oscars Well ran on for second place but was unable to match the turn of foot shown by the winner, whilst Charles Byrnes' Pittoni made a bad mistake at the third hurdle and never looked a real threat to the winner.

Mullins said: "He will be well entered up in the Champion Hurdle and the World Hurdle.

"He seems to run up to his mark every time he runs. He has picked up a lot of prize money along the way and is a great servant.

"He had the best form over two miles in this race and had a stone in hand on official figures. The Aintree Hurdle over two and a half miles, which he ran a cracker in last season, is a long-term realistic target.

"He will be left in the Hatton's Grace as late as possible but he will probably go for the two-mile Grade One at Leopardstown at Christmas (December Festival Hurdle)."

Walsh added: "He has been in Hurricane Fly's shadow but he is a good horse in his own right and is very versatile ground-wise."

Jessica Harrington said of Oscars Well: "He'll stay over two miles for the moment. He is only a second-season novice and improved all through last season and I'd have said he will do the same this year.

"He is the type of horse that could run into a place in the Champion Hurdle and he will be better with a quicker pace. The Aintree Hurdle is a long-term target for him."

**** now make the winner 6/1 for the 2012 World Hurdle, whilst both Sky Bet and Victor Chandler go a point bigger at 7/1.

In the Champion Hurdle market, Thousand Stars is 16/1 (from 33/1) and Oscars Well is 33/1 (from 16/1) with ****, whilst Sky Bet go 12/1 and Victor Chandler were even more impressed at 10/1.

VC spokesperson Charlie McCann: "It is possible that the fitness of Hurricane Fly will determine which race Thousand Stars targets at the Festival but he didn't look short of speed in seeing off a disappointing Oscars Well and Pittoni."
Report Can't Catch Me November 20, 2011 7:01 PM GMT
Disappointing Sad

I simply never expected TS to be that ready. If he was anywhere nr his best (ehich he looked to be), then that was still a decent effort from OW. But I still think he's short of the standard I thought he was / hoped he could be.
Report tinkler November 20, 2011 7:58 PM GMT
Sint,
When OW ran  at Down royal he quickened to the lead then folded fairly tamely there but i just put it down to
him needing the run. Here I think he should have offered more resistance, Thous Islands quickened away from
him like he was Nijinsky.  To me Thous Isl looked him in the eye and OW didn't want to know. I accept he
kept on to keep Pittoni at bay but that horse looked even less keen. Maybe I'm being a bit harsh on him but to
me he's the sort of horse that when he wins he wins easily but when push comes to shove against the big boys he ain't too keen. I cann't forgive that performance today.
Report Masterminded November 20, 2011 8:00 PM GMT
I backed Oscars Well fto just because I thought fit or not he has to be beating those type of horses to be getting near the likes of Hurricane Fly. He really disappointed me that day tbh just by how tamely he fell away. He wasn't given a hard time or anything but he traveled up like he would win the race and just went backwards. After watching today I'm pretty convinced he wouldn't have won at Cheltenham. He travels well but when he really meets the best he finds absolutely zilch. I hope he improves through the season as I do like him but he's going to find it tough in the top races.
Report tinkler November 20, 2011 8:17 PM GMT
In defence of OW it's not impossible that he's got a wind problem which would explain why he seems to weaken at
the end of his races. Remember reading in P Nicholls  biogaphy that he believed a lot of horses have breathing problems and that he tests for it a lot in his horses and has them operated on  more than other trainers.
Report bluebirdfan November 23, 2011 11:02 AM GMT
Harrington mentioned anything about chasing for OW? Doesn't seem to have trained on over hurdles
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