Amlin Chase Saturday 19th November

Think CC is the obvious one tbh as he would have won lto giving weight away to Medermit. If the ground is decent and he jumps well i'd expect him to win.

Master Minded better when it is Soft.

Pretty much agree with sint, though I expect a vastly improved Master Minded this time out.

Think if truth was told Master Minded was never being aimed at Aintree and was a total afterthought. Poor run but I think he will bounce back this week if he runs.

Why hasn't this been priced up yet

Prices up ..

2/1 MM
9/4 CC
7/2 Somersby
7/1 Medermit

Only priced up by 4 firms

Master Minded will surely find this far more difficult than his romp in last years event. If The Sawyer lines up you would expect them to go a good clip here, which would surely suit his main rivals far more.
If anyone goes 4/1+ about Somersby then he would be the bet for me. Ran an absolute blinder in last Seasons VC Chase @ Ascot going down a Sh to Master Minded. The extra couple of furlongs should be ideal and he has less to prove than the second season chasers imo

Kalahari King's a decent price at the weights.

You need to overcome the Henrietta factor apieceofcake.

4.5% strike rate over last 2 years.

That does not worry me one bit.

The only horse in her yard that I'm interested in atm is Somersby, he bolted up a few weeks back and she has not done too badly with him tbf.

i expect 5/2 on MM on the day with ruby not there

and ill be betting large

For me, Somersby should be running in Betfair Chase at Haydock on Sat.

i expect il be going in large on master minded too. i think hes a cut above these

I also hope to see MM return to his best but I would have preferred to see Noel Fehily on board. Nothing against DJ but NF really seemed to get on well with him last year. Much tougher than last years renewal though. Not a Somersby fan, can't see Medermit beating MM, but Capt Chris would be the biggest danger for me

yeah i think its between the top 2 in the market too!

MM for me

yep would like to see somersby stepped up to 3m

Master Minded will start 11/10, 5/4 when the final decs come out !!!!!

Why is everyone writing Medermit off?

For me too much is being read into MM`s win at Aintree and i`ll be looking to oppose him.

Somersby of interest to me too. And is entered in the KG on Boxing Day btw, around 20/1 on here I think.

Very interesting to me. (I've been wrong before though!)

bluebirdfan. In my case its because Capt Chris would have beaten Medermit at Exeter had RJ stayed on board. Now Capt Chris is 7lbs better off and race fit. Add to that I believe a back to form MM beats all, then Medermit is fighting out 3rd with Somersby IMO

Are you sure Captain Chris is race fit?

I would imagine he should be fitter for the first outing. Although the KG seems to be the main target at the moment I can't see why he would turn up for this less than race fit, and certainly can't see him being less fit than he was at Exeter and he should have won there

I like Somersby also, but was I alone in expecting him to be bigger than 7/2?

Somersby much better right handed and could be a good price on the day. Doesn't have much to find with Master Minded and good ground will be no hindrance. The horse he beat at Kempton is no slouch and this could well be his season.

Captain Chris all the way for me.Should be favourite imo.

He is in some books CCM. If he has a clear round he should go very close under ideal conditions but i've never been convinced by his jumping so i'lllet him go.

Somersby may become a bet if 9/2 or so becomes available.

Do you still think Captain Chris is race fit ?

cc needs to jump better than lto

not running i thought?

He is not running.

ffs

Master Minded walk in the park here... on to King George then.

Master Minded walk in the park here... on to King George then.

Master Minded walk in the park here... on to King George then.

Have to say having watched this on the tv from haydock, I don't really fancy either Masterminded or Somersby to get 3 miles. From a selfish point of view I would like to see Masterminded go there as I want them to save Kauto for the GC. Also I have MM in my TTF. Somersby I remain unconvinced by over any trip. I still say 2 miles is his optimum he's just not top class

My turn to agree with you RNL - I also didn't get the impression MM will stay 3 m - and he'll have to because he doesn't find much off the bridle these days.

i think mm will stay 3!

Reve, what makes you think that out of interest? I thought both MM & Somersby finished tired over 2m3 today. Kempton may be the track to do it on, but I have serious doubts.

If he will stay anywhere it will be Kempton going Right handed.

res, hes been working with slower horses apparently to help him stay. his aintree run where he won v well over 2 and a half and wasnt stopping was probably the moment i thought hed stay. i thought he won today with authority but not impressively. but when you consider he gave weight and a beating to horses like medermit and somersby it was a crackin performance. they looked to me to be tired enough at the end too res, but its probably just that 2 good horses pushed each other to the end that tired them. master minded posted a course record...says a lot. nicholls reckons he will improve!    i wonder what the plan will be now, will both horses go? unlikely prob?

I dont see why they wont both run tbh unless they want Kauto fresh for the GC.

The brief comments I heard after the Betfair Chase (admittedly they were probably as excited as I was) were that Kauto was heading back to Kempton for number 5. Hopefully once they've had chance to think about it they will train him for the GC like they did today.

id like to see both run tbh!

As much as both would have a decent chance, I reckon they'll only send one of them. Kauto vs MM would be very interesting tho

MM is not going to beat a field of proven staying chasers in a King George. Think KS will certainly run at Kempton maybe MM will miss it.

why not? if he stays himself (which i think he will) surely he has a live chance?

Kauto Star's run on Saturday seriously muddies the waters when it comes to running MM in the King George. Personally I hope they send KS straight to the Gold Cup as I think that's his best chance, but Clive Smith's comments today suggest he's keen to send KS to Kempton.

I wonder if MM will get an entry in the Tingle Creek.

KS for the tingle creek and MM for the GC i hear!

It sounds to me that if Kauto is fully recovered from Haydock then he will run in the KG. PN seems keen to run both as the KG has always been the plan for MM.

I, like Strontium, hope they hold Kauto back for the GC and get him to his absolute peak again for one last hurrah. While not fully convinced MM will see out a strongly run 3m, the other conditions ground & right handed track are in his favour, so he deserves his chance.

I personally think we'll see a much better Long Run on Boxing Day and he'll be tough to beat no matter who turns up

It would be a bit of joke if they decided to not run MM imo.
After he won at the weekend both PN and his assistant could not stress enough they will be peaking the horse for Boxing Day and that they have something to work on. They have been pretty adamant, even since the end of last season, that the King George is his main target.

I suspect there will be a fair amount matched on the horse for the race so if they decided not to run that would be a bit a disgrace,imo.

Agree,hes been trained for the race and well publicised hes going for it,so has to run.
Dont see a problem running both horses if it fits in with their plans.

sounds likely to me that both are runnin!

% estimates of them running in the KG
  90% Mastermined - Probably have to pick up an injury or the ground be very soft not to run. P.Nicholls has gone on record as saying he rarely bets but has backed this horse for the KG.
  80% Kauto Star - They may elect to wait for the Gold Cup and Nicholls may feel he needs more time to get
over his gut busting run at Haydock. Prob less likely to run than MM but still odds on that he will and will
be disappointing if the Legend doesn't line up.