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Betfair Chase Nov19 Haydock
Betfair Chase Nov19 Haydock
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Replies: 111
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Fair play to you Bud.
 I haven't backed DH myself (yet anyway) - I just put him up as an alternative to the favourite.You still haven't said, what, if anything, is the best bet in the race at the current prices - or is it in your opinion a case of 'Long Run should hack up', but at the price I'll just watch.  I'll watch how the betting goes and if any of the outsiders (DH, TFR, WA) drift to silly prices (say 14/1) then I might have a little dabble purely on 'value' grounds  |
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Its tricky Uncle cos it really all hinges on Long Runs fitness first time out.I would be inclined to leave the race alone,but if i do have a bet i would take a chance on Kauto at the odds.
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I can't see how you can say there's no way you can see Diamond Harry improving at all. He's run 4 times over fences, achieved a rating of 168 in doing so and won a Hennessy practically on the bridle. Admittedly his first 2 wins over fences were nothing to write home about but he'd put Denman away 2 out without being given his head at Newbury and Denman went on to run second in The Gold Cup. He was getting 2 stone in that race but there's no way there's much between him and Denman and he's got very low mileage and a superb win record.
If you fancy him you have to forgive his RSA Chase run but I think you can on the grounds that he didn't start chasing until the end of January and the trainer tried to rush him to get experience into him and, as in his novice hurdle season, he may not have been fresh enough by March. We all know his record fresh and on flat left handed tracks and, if anything, I think good ground will help as he's got blinding speed for a stayer and that could be vital in a small field and possibly tactical race. |
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The Diamond Harry angle seems to be the biggest axis of disagreement in this race. I firmly side with uncle and booster - think he could well improve (and to be honest, Long Run aside), I think he is the only one in the race with the potential to actually do that to any great degree.
Totally agree tat the RSA was a race to put a line through. He was never travelling, pre-race vibes were bad, and he never jumped a fence if recollection serves me well. He was a deeply impressive winner of the Hennessy (he needed to be off such a low weight) and his ability to travel and quicken makes him a huge player in my opinion. I think the form in the book, as someone said earlier, is there. To me, the Hennessy win was something that would have proved beyond anything else in the race (beyond Long Run and a younger Kauto Star), and his form behind Big Buck's was good enough to suggest he can make the leap over fences. Also think winning that valuable handicap hurdle giving weight (significant lumps of it too) to Burton Port and a stack of Cheltenham Festival winners was evidence that he could potentially be top class. He may be 9 but he's very lightly raced really, so improvement is certainly possible, and I think the ground might help if anything. For me he is the only bet at 7-1. |
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Totally take on board that he is a bit fragile and connections are hot and cold by the day with him, but for a horse that seems to have a reputation for being a hype machine, his wins to runs record (in good races too) is pretty excellent.
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Booster and tomdeane, I don't think the previous posters have said that DH can't have improved but just stated there is no evidence of improvement. He is 8 turning 9 has not had any extra runs for over 12 months to gain any further experience. He has been plagued by off-course injuries and niggles, and the only time he has run on good ground (likely on saturday) he was pulled up. Under these circumstances it is hard to confidently say he is a better horse than he was in the Hennesey.
If you believe there is no evidence for improvement you can only go off his form in the book. I honestly dont know how it will pan out but will certainly fascinating. Personally I am hoping Weird Al is the improver. I have always liked the horse, stable/jockey switch has proved positive and recent form has shown significant improvement (albeit in the untrustworthy Charlie Hall). |
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^ Fair point, and Weird Al is interesting for sure.
I suppose what I was meaning is that for me, bar his flop in the RSA (when he clearly didn't give his running), Diamond Harry has already run some great races and two of those wins (Hennessy and the Haydock handicap hurdle) were, at the time, in the best company he had faced. So I am interested to see if/how he improves now he faces his greatest test of all in Long Run and co. I think he could well improve again but take the point that this is guesswork having not seen him for a year. |
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Pretty much agree with most of that Swardean re DH.Certainly for a horse to improve at his age i would consider to be pretty unlikely.Soon to be 9.
I think over fences we have seen his capabalities and they are not top class.Added to that his problems i think 7/1 is an awful bet,plus it aint soft ground likely,where most of his good form over Hurdles was. Tom, The form is clearly not in the book,he has to carry a stone and a half more on Saturday than in the Hennessey!! The ability to travel and quicken with 10 stone against handicappers,Denman aside, would be somewhat easier. Look i may be proved wrong,fine,thats the game we are in,but he does not have form that puts him in with a 7/1 chance against the best around at level weights Added to that his problems i think 7/1 is an awful bet,but as i have said,i've been wrong before,and may be again. |
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All a game of opinions, but have to say one more thing on this.
He did win with a lot less weight on his back in the Hennessy, but he has been raised by the handicapper for that effort to a mark of 166, which seems perfectly fair to me. Denman was 15 lengths behind in third, and would have been further back if Diamond Harry had kicked for home sooner. It all comes down to whether or not you think Long Run will return at the top of his game (or close to it). I suspect he will be close, but probably 6-7lb below his best. Like many, I doubt he earned a rating of 182 in the Gold Cup (I'd have him on 178-179), which in my head means anything that runs to 173 on Saturday could beat him. Do I think Diamond Harry could be 7lb better than his current mark? Yes. He probably won't be, but I think he has a better than 1 in 8 chance. For me, the improvement issue comes down to one thing. He always looked like he was a very good horse in the making but only put it together in the Hennessy. That was, however, his last run, and as he goes well fresh I am hopeful that we will see him come forward from that at the weekend, and that it might be good enough. Time will tell! |
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I think 7/1 is about right, because although we have picked holes in DH the remaining opposition all have question marks?
- Long Run - FTO is perhaps time to take it on, henderson form? - Weird Al - Behind DH in Hennesey and poor in gold cup - Time for Rupert - Beaten in Charlie Hall, disappointed in RSA - Kauto Star - Despite record in race In not sure KAuto has ever been at his best at Haydock, too old? So with these issues you cant go too long on DH IMO |
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I'd actually love to see him miss Saturday altogether and bid for a second successive Hennessy as I don't believe his mark is insurpassable and the race doesn't look full of well handicapped horses. He could pop away in 4th or 5th and be unleashed after 2 out.
He'd be up to conceding the weight on last year's ratings. |
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Interesting booster, race was always considered a certainty for 2nd season chasers off a low 10stone something mark, but Trabolgan and Denman has recently shown it can be won my top weights.
Good enough or not I think connections have to 'try' to take on top class oppostion as some point. |
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That's true, as was The Paddy Power but Great Endeavour and co may have shown that last year's novices weren't so bright. I think either of the races at Haydock or Newbury will deliver optimum conditions for him, I guess the one thng nobody knows is whether he's good enough after being injured.
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I'd love to know what price you think DH should be Budd in the context of this race ..
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I got my fingers burnt on the 4-1 Ante Post for Wetherby but 6-1 is way too big now the declarations are known.
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2008 kauto falls at the last struggling to get the better of snoopy loopy and tamarinbleu when he was 8 never been convincing since his 1st win which wasnt the strongest betfair if he finishes in front of D H i will be amazed forget about d h never being a grade 1 winner and not having as higher rating this race has everything in his favour he has no chance of winning a gold cup in march but this is his time and thats why he will win on saturday granted a clear round
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Ok let me put it this way if i can.
He has not got his ground.Predicted Good. He has no form at this level of chasing. He has had 4 chase runs,pulled up on his only run on good ground,and won 3 handicaps on softer than he will get on Saturday. He has not been seen for a year,and has had a recent setback,to go with his history of problems. Given all that i would have him normally in a race against the top horse well in double figures. However i will concede that doubts exist with Long Run and KS which are the proven Grade 1 performers. So,in answer to your question Sint,about 10's. I would have Weird Al in front of him who we know is in form and also TFR in front of him as he has had a run out and ran ok for his 1st run. |
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So when i return from my weekend away,i shall be on here singing the praises of DH
and eating huge slices of humble pie.  |
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on all known form, i think diamond harry is a cut above wierd al
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well on Hennessey form of course,but WA has just put in a good performance against pretty good horses,so we know hes fit, and as can happen with a new stable looks a better horse for the change.
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even look at his form with knockara beau. prob spelled wrong! i think most horses improve for a change of stable on their first run for that stable, and often not as much after the first run
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Would be wary of any ground description there, they gave it as good to soft last year when IC beat Tidal Bay, id be surprised if he hadnt watered quite a bit, depends on what rain we get on thursday night and friday as some is forecast
If it came up g/s it would be a DH/WA rfc for this camp |
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I like Diamond Harry as an alternative to Long Run, and I've found the debate here interesting reading, but the issue I'm having is what people are meaning by "improvement". From my understanding of the word I wouldn't consider him to have improved as such on his Hennessy win, clearly having had no more race experience to learn from, but I don't feel that I've ever seen Diamond Harry's been forced to show as much in races as I believe he is capable of. So when we speak of improvement, are we saying that a horse is actually a better racehorse than he was last time he ran, or simply that he's capable of posting a better rating?
Also, since this debate revolves so much around Long Run, and if you believe there are no concerns first time out you might make him as short as 4/7, so Diamond Harry would naturally have to be longer than he is. Is there as much disagreement in the betting w/o Long Run, where Diamond Harry is 9/4F. (Not that that's a bet I would fancy myself.) P.S. After writing this I've just refreshed the page and read Budd's pretty convincing case against him, so I'm reconsidering what I think but am posting anyway. I so rarely post on here, I'm sorry if my few contributions are utter balls. |
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Concerning DH does anyone know of a decent chaser who's had a similer ligament injury and how it faired
on its comeback. Also what is the record of Nick williams on getting horses back after they've been injured(martin pipe used to be vg at it). Nick williams comes across as an honest guy and his assessment of the signifiance of the injury and how confident he is that the horse is as good now as he was before his hennessy win, would be interesting(maybe they'll interview him pre-race). I cann't see many other ways to try and quantify how a horse will recover and what price it should be. Maybe if he's in a1 condition he has a 7/2 chance and if the probabilty of him being in a1 condition is evens then from my calculations that would prob make his true price 7/1. |
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If DH had not had the injury then given his record 1st time out I would say the chance of him being in A1
condition is around the 1/4 mark so making his current price value. The difference in prices of 1/4 and evens reflect the lack of confidence I have that he will have fully recovered. |
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i think gauvain had a tendon injury?
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Would not worry too much Waterwheel,most on here disagree with me it seems,so they probably think my contributions are utter balls!!
FWIW,i think you make some valid points in your post above. |
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but I don't feel that I've ever seen Diamond Harry's been forced to show as much in races as I believe he is capable of. So when we speak of improvement, are we saying that a horse is actually a better racehorse than he was last time he ran, or simply that he's capable of posting a better rating?
In particular Waterwheel that has got me thinking to be honest |
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That's an excellent point. I'd say you could ask has DH been tested to the utmost of his ability yet? He clearly wasn't right in the RSA and I think he was always beating Burton Point in the Hennessy so have we really seen the best of him yet? It's a question I think can be legitimately asked of a horse who runs so infrequently. As a backer I believe that DHs best is yet to come and am hoping we see that on Saturday. We will have to if he is to beat Long Run.
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Aint changed my mind at all,i mean even if he does find a lot more for asking,he still aint got his ground,which is key looking at his form,but it is food for thought nonetheless.
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Lots of good points on here whether you're with or against DH. Personally I think 6/1 now he's declared is very fair. Remember Long Run beaten first time up last year off 158. Kauto as much as I admire him is def past his best. Weird Al, I cannot see reversing Hennessy form, and the track is probably not stiff enough for TFR. Just my opinion and Saturday will reveal all.
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Cheers, Budd. I think my problem is that I was really fairly confident of his chances in the Charlie Hall, so I've come into this race talking myself down from backing him again, when there is stiffer competition and more doubts surrounding him. I think I'm going to hold back for now, check the vibes from the stable and the going and make a decision closer the time, I expect 11/2 will still be available even then (though saying that Pricewise likes the horse first time out, having put him up for the Hennessy last year so the price may not hold).
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i think you're wise to wait myself mate,certainly as regards the ground.
I really think hes a lot better on softer ground,so if it were to rain in the next couple of days it would help his cause. I've pretty much said all i need to say on the horse,but i genuinely hope he runs well for you if you do have a bet on him. I have no problem if the horse proves me wrong,and it would only be good for the sport to have another top chaser around. |
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DH still has a lot to prove for me. Looks like going will be wrong , also jockey still has it to prove.
Kauto must be the value call. Even though he is 11 , not too many miles on the clock. |
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All this talk about the going being wrong is tosh. There is bound to be some juice in the ground. Tellwright will have mad sure and there have been some decent morning dews this week in Lancashire also. It will be a test as usual.
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See you on Saturday in the Newton Stand.
I will be nutter shouting Ruby, Ruby,Ruby. River Cool where I belong in my Mersey Paradise. Also City to thrash the Geordies for a perfect day. |
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Long Run wins easily followed by TFR then a Kauto in third. my prediction
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billys going 11/10 long run.
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Good luck Kauto, hope you run a blinder and give Long Run a scare.
Race revolves around Long Runs fitness fto, if he's close to full fitness he'll win this. Diamond Harry the possible danger, plenty of talent but been off the track for a year. |
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I'm going tomorrow and am looking forward to seeing this. Despite reservations about the track I have decided to have a punt on Time for Rupert @ 9/1. Willing to think it improves on the Charlie Hall, can't imagine it will have been at full tilt first time out after it's previous injury and it's RSA fifth looks excellent considering the problems it supposedly had. Obviously relying on LR not being fully wound up but no reason why it doesn't beat the rest. Don't see any benefit in the each way terms so a win only stab at TFR for me.
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