Horse Antepost
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Outstanding renewal in store with Long Run, Kauto Star, Diamond Harry, Weird Al, Time for Rupert and possibly even Grand Crus all intended runners at this point. Long Run will be making his seasonal bow and I think can be opposed at the prices, odds on everywhere bar PP's who go evens. Bearing in mind he'll probably come on for his first run(like he did last year), not to mention the quality of opposition he's likely to encounter at Haydock, his current odds represent no value whatsoever and he can be readily opposed here. I am hopeful too that he will be available at better odds for the Gold Cup after this
Diamond Harry 10/1 (no morals) is the value. I think had he run he'd have won the Charlie Hall. He won the Fixed Brush at Haydock off top weight in 09 and a repeat of that or his Hennessy victory last year might well be enough. His setback is a concern(I believe it was just a minor knock) but he's that type of horse and his strike-rate makes up for such concerns. Or at least at 10/1 I'm willing to take the chance it will.
I see no reason why Weird Al should not confirm placings with Time For Rupert and he is clearly a danger to all in current form. I do think however that DH is notch above both of those and will be racing 1st time out which is when to catch him.
Kauto Star will keep them all honest but is simply not the force of old at this level. He should have been retired immediately after his heroics in the Gold Cup. He wasn't though and can be backed at 12/1 for this. He wouldn't be of much interest to me at twice those odds to be honest.
Those who like an outsider could do worse than Planet of Sound. He looked in need of a break from the game last season and was duly given one after a lackluster performance in the King George. Not seen since he has gone well fresh before and possesses the raw ability to belie his odds of 40/1, even in company such as this.
Suggestions
Lay Long Run @ odds on
Back Diamond Harry @ 10/1
Diamond Harry 10/1 (no morals) is the value. I think had he run he'd have won the Charlie Hall. He won the Fixed Brush at Haydock off top weight in 09 and a repeat of that or his Hennessy victory last year might well be enough. His setback is a concern(I believe it was just a minor knock) but he's that type of horse and his strike-rate makes up for such concerns. Or at least at 10/1 I'm willing to take the chance it will.
I see no reason why Weird Al should not confirm placings with Time For Rupert and he is clearly a danger to all in current form. I do think however that DH is notch above both of those and will be racing 1st time out which is when to catch him.
Kauto Star will keep them all honest but is simply not the force of old at this level. He should have been retired immediately after his heroics in the Gold Cup. He wasn't though and can be backed at 12/1 for this. He wouldn't be of much interest to me at twice those odds to be honest.
Those who like an outsider could do worse than Planet of Sound. He looked in need of a break from the game last season and was duly given one after a lackluster performance in the King George. Not seen since he has gone well fresh before and possesses the raw ability to belie his odds of 40/1, even in company such as this.
Suggestions
Lay Long Run @ odds on
Back Diamond Harry @ 10/1
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Replies: 111
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Albertas Run to miss Betfair Chase & King George through leg injury;
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i agree mr mischief as i believe long run may need his 1st run would be good to know if diamond harry is over his knock and all is well
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DH is fine. Trainers wife was on ATR on Wednesday and said the horse was fine two days later. All systems go for Haydock.
It does look a hot renewal. I hope LR's odds drift to something backable on the day as I dont think it was lack of fitness that got him beat on debut last year, just the fact it was a G3 handicap over a trip short of his best. This is a Grade 1 chase so i'd expect him to be ready for it. |
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Bet £3.65 have Grand Crus 8/1 for this, same price as Diamond Harry. He won't run.
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Backed Kauto at 10s e-w. I can see Long Run scaring them away. 5/6 going to post. Difficult to keep KS out the 3, he said hopefully
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May be a bit premature to write off Kauto.
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FWIW, Nicholls said today that he expects a big run from Kauto Star.
There's no way Long Run's going to be fully wound up for this. He's a terrible price. It's certainly a race to sniff around amongst the bigger prices for e/w value. |
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Kauto
Cracking record 1st time out. C/D form. Stable on fire.Feel it will be more wound up than Long Run. |
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Kauto regressed with each run last year. I know he has won this race three times, but on each occasion he has made a blunder en-route. If he does that against this younger brigade i'd fear the worst ..
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Grand Crus confirmed non-runner
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Any news on TFR, I noticed he's drifted slightly today despite being declared. I really like his chances here even though it's the toughest opposition (over fences) he'll have faced by some way. He looked like he'd come on quite a bit for his first run.
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This race was worth virtually the same as the KG last year so I think its unlikely fitness will be an issue for Long run.It's no prep race. On last years form he's significantly better than these. The problem is that
time and time again you see these chasers produce one great year then thats it (Imperial Commander is a shining example). Thats what made KS and Denmans achievements so great. Long run is a young horse though and is relatively lightly raced so maybe he's a best mate type. I wouldn't be keen on opposing him but would need 6/4 + to consider backing him. |
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If there is a bit more rain, I think Rubi Light could do well. Young and progressive, a great jumper and he travels like a dream in his races. 14/1 with most layers atm, he's a very interesting entry. Trainer was quoted that this is the plan, final decision to be made tomorrow after a workout.
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I'm on Rubi Light at 40/1 for the Gold Cup so want a big run from him. Is Kauto e/w value at 8/1?? Sadly got this funny feeling he's going to fall :(
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In answer to my own question. I notice Paul Webber said today he thinks Haydock will not play to TFR's strengths and that beating Long Run is a pipe dream round there. Probably explains the drift. He does however expect the run at Wetherby to have brought him on. That has dampened my enthusiasm a little, but I still think he's got a decent chance at shaking up the big guns there
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rubi light out of race after working poorly.
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I always thought Weird Al was overrated until the Charlie Hall where I was very impressed with the way he went about his business and if in the same sort of form he must be a player.If the ground remains good and Kauto is ridden from the front think he will run a decent race also.No reason to think that Long Run may be short on fitness but im still not 100% convinced about his jumping, although if he does jump well,his the one to beat
Will backing Weird Al win & place |
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Diamond Harry has such an amazing first time out record that he'd have to be my pick at around 7/1 - though the fact he was clearly trained and ready for the Charlie Hall before the last minute problem may be a little negative - will he actually be 100% fresh for the Betfair?
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Diamond Harry still has a lot to prove to me. Winning the Hennesey of bottom weight of 10stone doesnt mean he has proved he can mix it at top level. Also, ongoing training difficulties mean I wont be playing on DH.
Giddy I have always rated Weird and thought he would have won the sun allaince the year he got injured. That may have proved a blessing. DH with Little Josh (subsequent PP winner) over 2.5miles proved to me he has speed. Very disappointing after that but now seems back to best and change of stables also perked him up. Long Run, may have been flattered last year running against so chasers on the decline (Kauto, Denman, WAF). New generation coming through and this makes saturday race so exciting. Hope Weird Al can bridge the gap to this level and win bet for me. |
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DH has a lot to prove to me as well.A load of soft ground nov hurdle wins,and a Hennessey win with 10st.Not one bit of winning form in a decent race on good ground as far as i can remember.
Overrated imo. Certainly yet to prove top class over fences. |
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can anyone clarify antepost betting rules, if i took Kauto each way at 1/5 first 3 will those each way terms stand now there are only 7 runners or does it change to 1/4 first 2 like it would if the bet was placed on the day of the race? Thanks in advance
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Just had a look at DH Chases.Hes run 4 times,one on heavy ground beating Knockara Beau,one on G/S beating Bensalem.
Then pulled up on good ground in the RSA,and won the Hennessey with bottom weight on G/S. Where on earth is the form that gives him a chance of beating those horses he meets on Saturday. |
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Well on the figures DH, TFR, WA all have no chance of beating an on song Long Run or a near top form Kauto Star.
I think where most people are coming from is that thewy want to oppose Long Run (first time out at odds on) and feel Kauto has seen better days - of the rest DH is top rated and always run well fresh. If it weren't for Webber saying TFR won't be suited by the course (is he just getting his excuses in early?) I'd give him a great chance too. |
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Remaining 8/1 for Kauto at Billy Hills
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Personally around flatter tracks, like Haydock and newbury,I think that DH was a very useful animal. The problem
is ,is he the same horse after a significant injury. It would be no great surprise to see him give Long run a race at a track like Haydock, yet at it would be no surprise to see him pulling up 3 out ,not being the same horse he was a year ago. If he retains his abilty 7/1+ is probably a decent price, if the injury and time off have seen a significant decline in his abilty then 100/1 would be a poor price. So the questions are 1.Does he have enough abilty under Saturdays conditions? I think yes 2.Will have retained that abilty? Very difficult to assess given the injury and long absence and your forced to make an educated guess. My guess is that he won't have and for that reason are far as betting on this horse goes I'm out. |
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apologies for the numerous grammatical errors
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I can buy into the argument that Long Run beat horses in decline last year and that he is taking on a new generation.
You have to also bear in mind though that he is the youngest horse in the field and therefore should be the one open to most improvement. Of the others, Weird Al would now appear to have least questions to answer (the main one being is this race too soon after Charlie Hall for him). Nacarat apparently found the ground too tacky at Wetherby but he and the others were a long way behind WA and TFR. |
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I think Rease that is what makes this race so fascinating, we will all know where we stand after this one, cant wait
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Point i am making Tinkler,is that DH has no form whatsoever that puts him in with a chance of beating these horses at level weights,yet people are touting his chances.
You say if he retains his ability hes a good price at 7,what ability is that mate?? Way i see it he has shown the ability to beat average handicappers and win a decent race with bottom weight.I see no ability that gives him an earthly of beating top horses at level weights. To me its all hype with this horse which started with his racking up a sequence of soft ground novice hurdles,and is still going now. |
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DIAMOND HARRY.......owner Paul Duffy said: "He got cast in his box overnight we think. It's obviously very disappointing. We hope it is not serious.
"He's in the Hennessy, but obviously we will have to see how he is." The above was the quote immediately after the Charlie Hall. Didnt sound too optimistic and looks like the betfair wasnt the plan at that time. For me it just one thing after another with this horse. |
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Diamond Harry may not be absolute top class (i.e 170+) but he is pretty bloody good over both hurdles and fences. He also might not be the hardiest of battlers, can hang and be a difficult ride, and is clearly fragile as well.
Over hurdles he was running all over Big Bucks 2 out in the Long Walk (at Newbury) and as has been the case with every other horse, couldn't match Big Bucks in the last furling. He gave Burton Port over a stone and hacked all over him at Haydock - the same Burton Port who went on to be 2nd in the RSA behind Weapons Amnesty and then hacked up in the big novice race at Aintree. Over fences he's only had 4 runs and thrashed a good yardstick in Knockara Beau first time out, then beaten Bensalem (who but for falling would have won two WH H'Cap's at the festival) and after dissapointing in the RSA (like many before him) he then wins a Hennessey Cognac. Hardly all hype - and to be fair the owner and trainer have never been saying he's a world beater. |
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Just to reiterate - people are simply opposing Long Run due to the price and feel Kauto may be over the hill - of the others he is top rated, and goes extra well first time out, so thats why some people are tipping him on Saturday - it dosen't mean anyone expects him to win a Gold Cup or become a 170+ horse.
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Already rated 166 so not too far to go
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not owners and trainers,but plenty on here and a few in the media.
You can say what you like,but looking at the formbook i dont see any form over fences that puts him in the same bracket as the best around,in fact nowhere near. Long Run would have to be way off his best and Kauto would have to be way over the hill for DH to beat them. No way would i take 7's on hoping those will happen. |
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You seem to have ruled out any possibility of improvement Budd. Not quite how racing works, is it ? If his form was in the book, you would be getting 7/1 !!
He may not be good enough to win at the weekend, but plenty of owners would love a horse like him. He's won 10 from 13 starts and over £300k in prize money. |
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* you would not be getting 7/1
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Plenty of money in the lay columnn for you to mop up if he's a no-hoper
If 7/1 is way too short what price should he be then? He's slightly shorter than Time For Rupert, about the same price as Kauto Star and Weird Al and way bigger than Long Run - has the market got it wrong, and if so what is the value bet in your opinion? |
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Sint,
im all for improving horses mate,especially with novices going into senior level,i often back on the strength of that.But DH will be 9 soon,no way i see him improving enough or even at all to be honest. I aint got anything against the horse,and yes hes won a few races,most of which in his nov hurdle days,i just dont think he is or ever will be as good as some seem to think he is or will be. |
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As for his price,well maybe thats fine for some,but obviously not for me for reasons i have stated.
I wont be laying,ive never laid a horse in my life and never will.I am an old fashioned backer of horses plus if i am wrong about a horse i wont lose a shed load of money!! And believe me(i know you will!)ive been wrong about a horse a few times in the past!! Maybe i'm wrong about DH,and if i am proved wrong,i'll be on here praising the horse.We all want as many gooduns as we can get after all. |