Hennessy GC?

^ I know what you mean penzance.

I backed Wayward Prince a little while ago, from a trends perspective as much as anything, as I think he is one that is guaranteed to stay, has a good weight, should like the ground, and has form that makes him a major player. That said, he has never been a horse I have really taken to and I'm worried his tendency to hit a flat spot will always count against him in a big-field handicap, even when staying is the name of the game.

The one I do fear and will be saving on is Great Endeavour. Might wait to back him in running though, as I feel his Paddy Power success was catalysed by his settling at Cheltenham. Never seen him relax that well before and I think it made the difference to the way he saw the race out. Obviously he has further to go at Newbury but think he could last home as long as he doesn't pull through the race.

sintonian
Date Joined: 21 Sep 04 Add contact | Send message
When: 22 Nov 11 15:17 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 15,963 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
did Joncol pick up a penalty for his recent win ?

As Tom states above Wayward Prince ticks all boxes re stats,also been trained for this,dangers Great Endeavour and Sarando all backed 10s and above heres hoping, good luck all.

What's wrong with Wymott? 10-2 Second season Chaser 3 from 4 over fences.  Beat Wayward Prince over hurdles and now gets weight?  Mccain produced Weird Al for the Charlie hall.  Can't see a better handicapped horse.

Heres my take on the race for what its worth;

1833 - Dont think he'll like the big field, way too short for me also.

Balthazar king - could run a good race and suprise afew, wouldn't bet on it though.

Beshabar - Not sure about this one, ground may end up too slow?

Billie magern - Ground too slow for him.

Blazing bailey - ???

Carruthers - Won't be happy in big field.

Fair along - Doesn't seem to be so good over fences now.

Great endeavour - Don't think he'll stay + ground too slow.

Joncol -  Don't think he'll stay.

Michel le bon - If this wins PN should be knighted.. way too short

Muirhead - just cant see it..????

Neptune - Good in a small field, wont like being challenged for lead.

Planet of sound - Interesting. Suited too and likes Newbury (3wins 1 2nd out of 4 runs). possible.

Qhilimar - Maybe not up to it??

Sarando - A possible. not sure yet?

The giant bolster - Will he get round? is he good enough? to many questionmarks...

Tullamore dew - First time running 3m+, might improve for it, might not???

Wayward Prince - Good chance, looks abit one paced, might not be a bad thing, can see him staying on for a place or better.

Wymott - Don't think he's got the class, too short.


Well nothing stands out as being exceptional, think i'll go with Planet of sound as main bet (just hope he's fit) and Wayward prince as a saver. Looks a poor Hennessy this year imo.

GL.

boy wonder. You might not fancy he'll stay, and thats fair enough.

But outstaying Cooldine to win over 3m on soft isnt proof that he wont get 3m2f on good to soft ground imo!

yes fair enough its great we all have different opinions i am just not 100pc about him not sure he justifys his  mark

At the prices Tullamore Dew is an interesting one. His Festival race is working out very well (1st and 2nd in that were 2nd and 3rd in the Paddy Power). TD looked to be going OK and coming in to contention when he fell in the PP. I know he's not run 3 m before, but you'd be geeting good value that he might be a potential improver.

decided to have a few quid on Carruthers. I know he doesn't win often but he looks well handicapped now off 146 as a result (is actually due to go down a further 3lb), but I thought he jumped and travelled great last time out around Cheltenham where he got beaten by Galaxy Rock who is an improving 2nd season chaser that had a previous run and was receiving 11lb. Ballyfitz stayed on to grab second who himself is not badly handicapped on old form.

The last time Carruthers won was at Newbury, so worth a try at 20/1 imo.

I may save on WP come raceday .. gl all

do you think he'l run sint, he was my choice before his trainer stated (trainer comments again) that he wouldnt run unless at least soft, the forcast i saw as early as yesterday doesnt show any appreciable rain leading up to the race.
on that score went for wayward prince instead

I emailed them and he replied this morning say they intended to run.

It was GS last time out at Cheltenham so provided it is no quicker than that he should run,imo.

I'd not advise you back him though. Happy to risk my own money etc but trainer said  ''Yes we intend to run at the moment'' on email.

good work and fair play, cheers for that

you can probably get NRNB by tomorrow so might be best to wait.

if u back Ante Post(ladbrokes)1/4 1st 4 horses...and only 13 run,do you still get paid 1st 4 ?

Yes jungle.

Wayward for me, strong fancy

Dont think this will take that much winning tbh

Joncol out to 24 on here and absolutely nowt looking to get on, looks pretty ominous don't it

Anyobdy any news on who is going to ride Wymott?? A bit bemused that Maguire is flying from Bangor @ 12.10 to get to Newcastle for 2.20 to ride Overturn in the Fighting Fifth why not go to Newbury instead to ride Wymott @ 3.10 or is that not possible?

Good point. Maybe he fancies his chances of winning on Overturn more ??

It's not obvious is it. Fighting Fifth is a Grade 1 which could be the decider. Maybe he doesn't want to upset the owner, who owns a lot of the yard's good horses (inc. Peddlars Cross), but then so does Trevor Hemmings. Maybe they think Overturn has the better chance of picking up a big pot than Wymott - it's certainly a less competetive race.

Yeah they must really fancy Overturn or it being a grade 1 being the decider, just surprised. I probably should of thought more about it but i had just persumed he would be aboard Wymott (my own fault for not digging enough).

He'd probably pick up more money on finishing 2nd or 3rd in the FF than placing in the HGC ?? Only a win would be worth more ..

Sure it'll be interesting to see who they get to ride

Graham Lee, maybe.

The Rehearsal Chase is on the same day as well so Jockeys at a premium at the mo ..

I'd be more than happy with Graham on top

Here’s a list of horses that I have been compiling since 1833 that didn’t like big fields:
Mighty Man
Night Nurse
Make A Stand
Sizing Europe
Dawn Run
Hardy Eustace
Solerina
Massinis Maguire
Barton
Limestone Lad
Deanos Beano
Lough Derg
Flyingbolt
Arkle
Denman
Bula
Overturn
Pridwell
Intersky Falcon
One Man
Our Vic
Grey Abbey
Wishful Thinking
Celetial Halo
Newmill
Albertas Run
Edredon Bleu
Ballabriggs
Desert Orchid

what are people's thoughts on the number of defectors  for this? Worth getting on e/w selections now to ensure 4 places?

Sint - much better prize money for the Hennessey than the FF including the places.

Heres my take on the race for what its worth;

1833 – Will Tank along from the outset in front and won’t see another horse.

Balthazar king – In and out performer think his last race came to soon.

Beshabar – Wants further.

Billie magern – wont get to the front.

Blazing bailey – Has a mind of his own these days, stays but the creams curdled.
Carruthers – Needs the mud.

Fair along – Well Handicapped has to get to the front, this pint pot hates big fields.

Great endeavour – Missed the break at the festival, was given an easy lead and made a tired non stayers fall.

Joncol – Can’t possibly win jumping violently out to his right when the pace is on, will be running 3m3f.

Michel le bon – Has the same profile as 1833 may need the outing and Ruby has the choice.

Muirhead – will stay on when others relent

Neptune – Hates big fields in this to boss the handicap and bring down his own for the future.

Planet of sound – Trainer has been runner up to 1833 in both runs on this course, another bridesmaid.

Qhilimar – Been mixing both codes

Sarando – Could be well handicapped.

The giant bolster – Pick a fence and I will uproot it.

Tullamore dew – wants a fast run 3m sharper track than this.

Wayward Prince – Will stay as long as the mother in laws mother but may be a little to late.

Wymott – Would give this a real chance if it were bottomless.


1833 thats Ruby to win by 18 lengths and 3 lengths back to the 3rd horse

Five - yes. I can see Joncol, Carruthers and Balthazar King coming out. Also possibly Fair Along and Blazing Bailey?

philip hobbs has already said all three of his run.

Sintonian, Joncol won on 4th November horses winning after November 6th to be penalised after one 'chase win 4lbs of two Chases 7lbs.

joncol on drift.looks like nr.

Joncol doesn't run

Nolan is something else isn't he?

Nolan is a stranger to the truth, i wasn't on Noble Prince but i thought it was very poor the way he put all punters away with him. I suppose i should of took heed and stayed away from Joncol but backed him when he said he was being aimed at the race, nothing major but i can't wait to read his reasons seen as there is rain forecast for Friday but i'm sure the going will be the excuse.

Nolans a clown unless Joncol is injured.  Backed it on the back of his confirmation.

Yep sure enough he misses the race due to drying ground and goes for the John Durkin instead

Once bitten....

Put him on the 'not to be trusted' list now.

I just e-mailed Attheraces about this expressing my displeasure, so if anyone hears it being read out on tomorrow's show, let us know what the response from either Matt or Boycie might be.

I backed Joncol ages ago and wasn't lured in by Nolan's quotes, also am not suggesting he is laying his runners as he'd make about a tenner even if he was that way inclined, but it really is pathetic from him. I wasn't on Noble Prince but I'd say that was even worse as at least with Joncol there is the ground excuse, but still why say he was "90% sure to run"

No one can say we didn't see that coming. It's almost beginning to look as if someone is deliberately taking the piss out off AP punters.

Commiserations Joncol Backers. I thought this one would be heading over as even if the going is GS I dont see that as a reason not to run. I understood why they did not send over Noble Prince but now Joncol will be dropped back in trip for the Durkan which wont suit at all imo.

How much rain is forecast ?

ffs. Whats worse is a friend who knows him pretty well, actually spoke to him in person about both NP and Joncol and he mainatined they'd both most likely be running all the eay until a day or so before each time.

Pretty difficult to defend his quotes imo. Never, ever to be trusted again.

good call re Graham Lee sintonian

Yep unlike Nolan you can rely on Sint to get it right! I took a hit on Noble Prince & Joncol but small stakes so there you go. Should have put it in Greek bonds only a 50%ish haircut there. Still have some 18-1 Wymott & 14-1 Michel Le Bon so all hope not lost. GL with Carruthers Sint brave call but could turn out to be shrewd?

Backing Carruthers never fills one with confidence, Solving . We know he'll jump and run from the front, it just depends how many fences he hits.His handicap mark these days is very appealing. I do have a slight concern in that his last run was just 2 weeks ago over 28f, so there is a possibility this might be a week or two to soon. But we'll see.

Interestingly, Noel Fehily rode him last time, but rides Michel Le Bon. I wonder if that is out of loyalty/connection to Nicholls or a tip in itself.

gl

Carruthers has to be the value here for me at 20/1 - supposedly trainer never happy with his condition last year and must be well handicapped on past form. Not sure where this idea he has to have soft ground has come from. Trainer has quoted in the past that he doesnt mind good ground - he has won on it and ran one of his best races on it when second to What A Friend at Aintree.
More concerns would be only 2 weeks to get over a longer race at Cheltenham which cant be a perfect prep for this and competition for the lead from 1833 and Sarando (the latter may outjump them both?). Wymott may want to be in the van also but doesnt strike me as one who would like the competition

trainer and jock of Carruthers just had a winner at Uttoxeter

Ive had some excellent touch s over the years in the Hennessy which has always been one of my favourite races of the year. The likes of one man, suny bay, jodami, chatam, teetan mill and strong flow have given me great runs....Looking at this years renewal it is clearly not the greatest of fields. My 2 against the field are WAYWARD PRINCE who fits my profile. A very good novice hurdler who took well to chases, showing good ability, jumping , stamina with a class of class- basically very solid form. If he were trained by nicholls or henderson he d be 5-1 imo and the type to grind it out , my main choice. I ll also take a small saver on micheal de bon. I had a decent bet on his only chase run which he won easily at this meeting last season and vowed to follow him . Its no secret that nicholls thinks he is gold cup class on pure ability. If he can handle the rough and tumble of the race on only his 2nd chase run he could be very interesting indeed.


Good luck all.

Final dig for me to go with Carruthers is .. Sarando. A few people on here have backed him already and I decided to bet him aswell. He has proven his health/fitness this season,will get the trip and jumps well in the main. You can watch he last run on sporting life website.

Intriguingly, Paul Webber was interviewed on RUK earlier and he used to train State of Play, the 2006 Hennessy winner, before selling him to Evan Williams!! Both horses have the same sire.

gl and may the best beast win.

Has to be Wayward prince for me.
He's working well at home, his jumping has improved no end & Dougies back on board.

Got to go against you guys unfortunately! I'll be place laying Wayward Prince, place laid him in the RSA and he surprised me by finishing third, but I think it was a poor renewal and off 150 he'll struggle to place here. Similar profile to Weird Al leading up to the Hennessy last year, form before the RSA doesn't look fantastic, think he'll be suited to a bit further actually.

The win bet for me will be Planet of Sound/The Giant Bolster. Planet of Sound's had a breathing operation, explains why he emptied so quickly in the KG. Followed TGB for ages, backed him in RSA. Unseated at the first fence in the PPGC, willing to take one last chance at 20s with him being on a very reasonable hc mark.

^ Understand where you are coming from here, but Weird Al wasn't right all last season according to connections. He has been right all this season and his two runs would probably have been good enough for him to have at the least been in the mix in an average Hennessy.

I really like Wayward Prince but am just slightly concerned he will hit a flat spot and just find things happening that little bit too quickly for him. Can see him charging home for minor money. As the race approaches I do like Great Endeavour more and more - if he settles like he did at Cheltenham I think he'll stay and he's the one that looks best handicapped to me.

I have added Beshabar to my 2 now he is a runner.

I know he is fit but thght he would miss it.

I think this relentless galloper could destroy the weaker horses here

12/1 is still massive and will be single figures poss pricewise imo

just took the 20-1 carruthers, can see this ending up 4/6 points shorter, other bet wayward prince 3.30 place only on here.
good luck one and all.

1833

Just taken 8/1 BOG at Hills.

I had 3 that interested me from a h/capping point of view - First Tulamore Dew who I didn't expect to make the race after he ran in the PP. But I've taken a small saver on him for this race as he is crying out for a trip. Sarando who won his race at Carlise so all the value went before I had chance to back it. Small bets at 25/1 and 20/1 - Was available at 60s prior to Carlise. The one I've backed for a large coup @ three figure odds is Qhilimar. I know it's 5lbs out of the h/cap but his last race where he was 2nd of 16 giving 2 stones away looked a good performance to me. If he had won he would have been more or less carrying 10 stone anyway. As he is always running on best of all over 2.6 - 3.0 miles I think 3.2 miles at a track he has won on before will be right up his street. So Qhilimar for me. 70s still available so lump on.

my 3

michel le bon
carruthers
tula dew

Planet of Sound at 12s looks good value to me considering he is a genuine Grade 1 horse - off 11st2lb he looks reasonably treated in this which isnt a vintage Hennessy. Track and ground and the fact he races well fresh all positives, only negative is lack of a win at 3m+ but every chance on a flat track and on good ground.

hope u r right derbyshire. am on quite large at 33's.

having read Nicholls' comments regarding MLB I'm half tempted to back him. I had put a line through him as there were too many unknowns having been off the track for so long. But Nicholls seems to have a great deal of confidence and he could be anything.

If you back MLB you're essentially guessing. This is a tough race to work out. MLB might win on the bridle and be a great horse (wouldn't Ruby be on him)? That would be good for racing. Not prepared to pay to find out though.

I'd fancy 1833, especially as he has course form, and he had a nice prep recently, but you'd have to forgive his flop in the RSA to be ablemto back him with confidence.

Wayward Prince has a good profile, yet I for some reason have the idea he might be  anearly horse that might find one better in the big races.

GE has form in the book but will he stay?

I can't see Wymott having the class.

Beshabar is one that could jump round into a place, but I'd be surprised (and disappointed if he proved to be the best in the race).

Quito de la Roque followers (I'm in the club) would be keen on seeing Sarando doing well, and I wouldn't rule this one out.

Tough one to call, I'm looking forward to it, and just coming down on the side of 1833, mainly due to course form and a nice run behind Somersby last time out..

Carruthers won't stay this far.

number of runners(lengths beat),18(57),15(29),18(16),13(23),18(20), 14(23),13(60),carruthers just dosent run well in big fields

Surprised there has been little mention of Muirhead. At 20/1 it will be Noel Meade's biggest price runner after Harbour Pilot 3rd at 11/1 in 2002 and Pandorama PU last year at 8/1. He doesn't send them over for the race that often but always sends them with a chance.

Muirhead was disputing favouritism at Ascot LTO but was carrying 11-8 and was giving nearly a stone to the well h'cpd winner. Off a racing weight today and with the pre-requisite 4 weeks to recover I would be very disappointed if this doesn't make the frame and with a bit of luck could nick it. 20/1 generally and first 5 with PP.

GL

backed it at leminster,it should run well,

CUTH

The reason I have backed Carruthers is his run in this race last year ....6th of 18 (yes beaten 20l) ,but for me this is evidence a big field is not a problem.
For a horse that likes to lead/race up with the pace,a big field invariably means there is more competition at the front,and for me that is the issue here.If they are positive with him today I'm hoping it won't be a problem.

Trusty, I also like Muirhead. Won the Munster National doing handstands but got 15lbs for that win. Still though off a mark of 147 is still a lot lower than the 158 he achieved over hurdles. I think he was hampered mid-race the last day and Meade said that may have been the reason for the below par run. Also who was the last Irish horse placed in a Hennessy? Was it Harbour Pilot in 2002? Trained and ridden by whom?

fair along will lead ,and put carruthers off

everything is relative with Carruthers. The lengths beaten have to be compared to his handicap mark and the majority of the time it was the mid 150's. Today he is 146.

Double figure field stuff is also nonsense. His wins happen to be in small field races because most Novice chases rarely contain more than 5 runners.

If you look at his h'cap form in big fields, he has finished no worse than 6th, and all fields where 14-18 runners. These are good runs, races like the Badger Ales and Hennessy last year, both runs of siginificantly higher marks.

I have to say, the arguement he does not like big fields is poorly researched and lazy. If he gets beaten today it wont be because of the number of runners.

1833, for example, has never ran with more than 12 runners, and when he did he was pulled-up. But there is not enough evidence to be conclusive.

WYMOTT is very weak on here .. ground ?

Tough tough race to call as the betting shows.
My feeling is that there are doubts about some of those at the top of the market ie GE,MLB and 1833,so therefore are too short.
Could pick 10 and not get the winner.
FWIW,i will have 2 against the field,Wayward Prince and Planet of Sound,but not punting with great confidence.

craputhers as won a 5 runner race on heavy ground - thats its sole hcp ch success.


its last 4 hcp finishers look to the lazy eye,that it runs ok.but it finnished

4th last
last
last
4th last


its poor

Wayward and Great Endeavour are the two for me; hope Beshabar runs in nicely towards the end though with Aintree in mind.

Beshabar running well might catch the attention of the handicapper, which would diminish his chances in the National perhaps?

There's a lot of front runners in this race. Could be ran at a cut throat pace. I'm going for the stayers. Wayward Prince and Beshabar. Also a small saver on Tullamore Drew in case the trip brings about improvement as has been staying on over shorter distances.

comingupthehillast, your sounding pretty clueless tbh mate. Whatever the outcome today, your analysis is all wrong. For starters, Carruthers has never won a handicap chase, and secondly, he has never finished last in one, so I really have no idea what you are talking about.

I completely understand why he would not float your boat as a bet, it actually worriers me, but off 146 and at 20/1 I see it as a fair bet.

Please do us a favour and get your analysis correct if your going to go to town on the horse rather than just spouting shoite. thanks.

to provoke a reaction ,you ve got to have a bases of facts on your side,

last season,it ran in 4 races ,3 hcps,it came last at haydock(grand national trial)you would say it came 4th - but last is more accurate,it also came last in the gold cup.


90% of what i posted is accurate,seems your mistaken,

if you need any help understanding all the different terminology ,just ask ,if i can help ,be happy to help.

you posted ,clueless,wrong,no idea,spouting shoite,

i did get its 1 sole win wrong - your right it wasnt an hcp,


in small fields it runs to quite a high standard - but goes to pieces in big fields,

my intial hunch,quick glance at its form - was a pretty good assessment

well done sint  - looks like i was wrong,your interpretation worked out,

GGEEEETTTT IIIINNNNNNNNN

Impressive Sint superb call. Hope you did a bundle! Sink a few tonight & forget about the worries of the world.

This has been a great thread to read this week and well done to you winners.

Really thought i had it with Planet Of Sound,absolutely gutted,but fair play Sint and fair play to Carruthers and connections,always nice to see a big pot go the the lesser stables.
Still bl00dy gutted though!!

Well done Sint. I was wrong about him staying. On the positive side with Carruthers winning and Fair Along placing, Hey Big Spender had to be backed! Chaed my losses back + a bit more.

great result, thought jockey gave him a great ride

cheers all.
well done tinaton,hemsby, others.

CUTH, no hard feelings, but still for the life of me cant understand your analysis about the horse finishing last in handicaps. Presumably you excluded the horses that pulled-up or fell ?

Well done Carruthers backers, in the face of some adversity.

well done the caruthers backers.

the horse bit his tongue before the race, mouth was bleeding.

lord oaksey half cut by now good on you sir

sint - yeah ,it was getting beat by alot of lengths,and no other horses behind it.

you looked deeper and it paid off,well done,for me 7 big defeats is enough proof,it would be too hard to look for constant excuses as to why it lost.

i cant fault your method,but over a season,going with the facts would be better,

beshabar ran ok and fair along ran well - so i m happy im knocking on the door.

joci club - why are man city top of the league ,cos they have stived to challange man utd,

if we all agreed ,then people become blaize,as long as someones questioning is logical ,then i will always dissagree,the odd time end up with egg on my face,but it keeps people focused.

But I went with the facts, Cuth.

Just because a horse is a pulled-up or fell it doesn;t mean they have not given their running. More often than not horses are pulled up or fall because they have nothing more to give and are beaten. Carruthers had beaten those horses off higher handicap marks.


The race at Cheltenham two weeks ago where Carruthers placed had a horse called Promising Anshain in it. This is a perfect example of where your analysis fell down. Promising Anshan was sent off 3/1 favourite, brought good recent form into the race, but the fact he fell does not mean his run can be ignored. Why ? Becuase he fell two fences from home when he was going backwards and well beaten off. These are the facts, Cuth.

I think most people would find your way of doing things slightly strange to be honest. Your basically saying any horse that fell or pulled-up should not be used as yardstick for the form. Horses fall or PU for a variety of reasons, and a lot of the time it is because they have given their running, watching the races tells us this.

coupled with being beaten by over 14l or bigger,it formed one picture,sometimes as in this the picture wasnt accurate,but most times it is.

Decisive victory from Carruthers. I thought the jockey gave him a cracking ride taking him round the inside
getting some big leaps out of him and using strong handling. The horse showed a lot of stamina and guts .
To me this was a good Grand national trial and reminded me a bit of Suny Bay's victory. If connections were ever
let him take his chance in the National and he had a reasonable weight(he's not built to carry big weights) I
think he has what it takes to run a big race .
Every credit to those who backed him .Picking 20/1 winners isn't easy.

Fantastic stuff Sint and others, hope you all made a tidy few bob.