Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
The Munster National takes place at Limerick on Sunday 9th October. Below are trends for the past 10 years (http://tinyurl.com/6bt6yt5):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-8
7yo: 2-9-33
8yo: 5-5-30
9yo: 0-6-32
10yo: 2-0-11
11yo+: 0-0-8
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 8-17-71 compared to horses aged 9+: 2-6-51.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-4 or higher: 3-10-53
Horses carrying 10-3 or lower: 7-12-69
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-3 or less and in the past 2 runnings all 8 placed finishers carried 10-6 or less.
Top Weight: 1355F70250 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 4-7-51
Horses rated 119 to 129: 5-14-54
Horses rated 118 or lower: 1-1-17
5 of last 6 winners were officially rated 119 to 129 and they also filled 7 of the 8 places in past 2 renewals.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on one of their last two chase starts
8 of 10 winners had not run in the past 60 days
5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 exceptions having first course start & other was placed on only start here in a h’cap chase)
8 of 10 winners had run in a graded chase (1 exception had run in listed chase and other exception had run in a grade 2 hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 times over fences
6 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
4 of 10 winners had their last chase start at the Punchestown Festival
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Golden Kite): 22 (0-2-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing 689
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Troytown, finishing 406
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing F2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 0B
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cork National, finishing 62
Trainers
Mouse Morris (2-1-5) has won the race twice in the last 10 years (2001 & 2003) and also saddled the 3rd last year.
Noel Meade (1-4-12) trained the winner in 2005 and had the short head 2nd in the race last year, with the winner being trained by Adrian Maguire (1-0-1).
Eric McNamara (0-2-5) trained the winner back in 1999 and 2 of his 5 runners in the past 10 years made the frame.
Charles Byrnes (0-1-1) trained Super Franky to win it in 2000 and finish 2nd in 2001 whole Paul Nolan (0-1-1) has also seen his sole representative in past 10 years make the places.
Willie Mullins (0-0-3), Dessie Hughes (0-0-3) and Charlie Swan (0-0-6) have seen their combined 12 runners all finish unplaced.
Price
No strong trend on prices with 6 winners going off 8/1 or shorter and the other 4 being priced between 12/1 and 20/1.
Favourites (2-1-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-3 or less
• Officially rated 119 to 129
• Finished in the first 2 on one of last 2 chase starts
• Course winner (or having first start here)
• Won 2 to 5 times over fences
• Won a chase over 2M 4F+
• Second or third season chaser
• Previously run in a graded chase
• Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
• Trained by Mouse Morris, Noel Meade or Eric McNamara
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-8
7yo: 2-9-33
8yo: 5-5-30
9yo: 0-6-32
10yo: 2-0-11
11yo+: 0-0-8
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 8-17-71 compared to horses aged 9+: 2-6-51.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-4 or higher: 3-10-53
Horses carrying 10-3 or lower: 7-12-69
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-3 or less and in the past 2 runnings all 8 placed finishers carried 10-6 or less.
Top Weight: 1355F70250 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 4-7-51
Horses rated 119 to 129: 5-14-54
Horses rated 118 or lower: 1-1-17
5 of last 6 winners were officially rated 119 to 129 and they also filled 7 of the 8 places in past 2 renewals.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on one of their last two chase starts
8 of 10 winners had not run in the past 60 days
5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 exceptions having first course start & other was placed on only start here in a h’cap chase)
8 of 10 winners had run in a graded chase (1 exception had run in listed chase and other exception had run in a grade 2 hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 times over fences
6 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
4 of 10 winners had their last chase start at the Punchestown Festival
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Golden Kite): 22 (0-2-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing 689
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Troytown, finishing 406
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing F2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 0B
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cork National, finishing 62
Trainers
Mouse Morris (2-1-5) has won the race twice in the last 10 years (2001 & 2003) and also saddled the 3rd last year.
Noel Meade (1-4-12) trained the winner in 2005 and had the short head 2nd in the race last year, with the winner being trained by Adrian Maguire (1-0-1).
Eric McNamara (0-2-5) trained the winner back in 1999 and 2 of his 5 runners in the past 10 years made the frame.
Charles Byrnes (0-1-1) trained Super Franky to win it in 2000 and finish 2nd in 2001 whole Paul Nolan (0-1-1) has also seen his sole representative in past 10 years make the places.
Willie Mullins (0-0-3), Dessie Hughes (0-0-3) and Charlie Swan (0-0-6) have seen their combined 12 runners all finish unplaced.
Price
No strong trend on prices with 6 winners going off 8/1 or shorter and the other 4 being priced between 12/1 and 20/1.
Favourites (2-1-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-3 or less
• Officially rated 119 to 129
• Finished in the first 2 on one of last 2 chase starts
• Course winner (or having first start here)
• Won 2 to 5 times over fences
• Won a chase over 2M 4F+
• Second or third season chaser
• Previously run in a graded chase
• Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
• Trained by Mouse Morris, Noel Meade or Eric McNamara
Show More
Thanks for the stats. Always very interesting.
think one of the reserves will win this,see which ones come out,muirhead got more in him,our bill looks solid,arklow ger looks capable
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539