Parish Hall

not classy enough to win a derby. surely another (now I can't remember the name of that horse that won at long odds for bolger a few years but you know what i mean)

don't think any of that field will threaten in classics.

sorry should have said won the dewhurst for bolger at big odds.

I actually disagree with you Mythical.

Its a really sure sign of a good horse if its bred to stay and yet can win over an inadequate trip.

Okay he didn't show an amazing turn of foot, but the speed he showed over 7 furlongs will look a deal better when he is running over twice as far.

He is a big sort as well with loads of scope for improvement.

25/1 about a Dewhurst winner with 12 furlong breeding is decent value.

the biggest worry i'd have for this horse is the trainer. I know Jim is topclass but he regularly runs his best horses on going they hate which inevitably takes the edge off them.

yes they can run too often as well imo.

This is okay when he has a horse with an iron constitution like New Approach, but he was exceptional in lots of ways

Come the horse, come the trainer. Both Bolger and his former tutee O'Brien believe race horses are menat to race, week in, week out, ground firm, ground soft. They are right.

Sint, JB pulled PH out of the Beresford due to the going.

I do think he won't be able to resist a pop at the Guineas with this lad. I don't think that will do any harm to his Derby chances based on his experience with New Approach.

Now 16/1 top price now so there has been money for it at 25/1. Not surprised, I think some of the odds makers were on the sauce last Saturday afternoon with some of the quotes flying around

Was very surprised he was 25s after the race, especially when Bolger said he thought he was an Epsom horse.

Yes I availed myself of the 25/1, once after the race and once on Sunday, after i'd had even more time to think about it.

my rationale is this, he ran apparently 117 RPR or so over 7 furlongs on fast going. Given his stamina you have to conclude that he will be significantly better over further. My guess is he would be already the equivalent of a 124 rated 12 furlong horse.

Given normal improvement we have a group 1 competitor over 12 furlongs next year for sure; one who is trained by someone who quite likes taking home british pounds, and who has said he will be targeting the Derby. 25/1 was far too big. I have seen worse 12/1 over winter favourites for the Derby than Parish Hall.

not to keep crabbing the horse, but has there been any derby winner that made his first appearance as a two year old at the start of april? I mean hats off to the horse and the trainer that he's managed to win a group one having been on the track all year, but I just wonder if he was a really a superstar whether they'd start him off so early.

I know you're not a great stats man cry, but i'd be interested if anyone can tell me when was the earliest a derby winner made his seasonal appearance. it seems to me that most derby winners are late-maturing lightly raced maturing types who blossom as three years olds. perhaps parish hall can buck the trend?

my main reason for thinking though that parish hall does not represent great value is just that i don't think that was at all a very good dewhurst. it reminded me of steinbecks dewhurst (I can't even recall the winner of that race) where they all finished in a heap.

I think this horse is in danger of being overrated also tbh. Runner-up was unlucky and i'd expect the horses in the race stepping up from maiden company to improve past him.

8 of the last 43 winners of the Dewhurst have gone on to win the Derby so from that perspective, 25/1 was mathematically and statistically way over the odds. When you also factor in that a lot of the other winners were out and out milers and hope no hope of staying a mile and a half( unlike this guy), it makes current odds even more appealing.
As far as Derby winners being out early, April is very premature but from memory, Dr Devious and Generous ran at Royal Ascot so were early types.
Basically, Parish Hall is bred for 12 furlongs and is outrunning his pedigree. That makes him a serious animal in my book.

fair points.. the problem is you already know what his campaign will be. jim will start him off in the 2000 guineas trial at leopardstown. then on to newmarket. then on to the irish 2000. then the dante. then probably some conditions race at the curragh.

by the time he lines up at epsom he'll be too knackered to even want to race

I took some 25s, but can't help but think I should have waited until the week before the Derby and taken some 1000...

The overall form of the race doesn't look good. The first 5 home were covered by less than 1 1/2 lengths and
the winning time was 5 1/2 lengths slower than Strong suit did and a touch slower than Wading did in the Rockfel ,both over the same C/D. The only 2 I'd consider taking out of the race are Power who needs a fast paced mile and Parish hall who has the size and scope to improve.