CHALLENGE CUP (3.50 ASCOT) TRENDS

10-year-trends for the past 10 runnings of the Challenge Cup, the big handicap at Ascot at 3.50 (http://tinyurl.com/6b6hsob):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-8-55
4yo: 4-8-78
5yo: 2-5-51
6yo+: 2-8-47
No strong trends on ages of winners.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-4 or more: 2-6-55
Horses carrying 8-10 to 9-3: 3-14-106
Horses carrying 8-9 or less: 5-9-70
The last 5 winners all carried 8-10 or more.
Top Weight: 00003007007 (0-1-11)
Horses carrying a penalty: 1-1-15

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 2-6-54
Horses rated 90 to 99: 4-19-130
Horses rated 89 or below: 4-4-47
Higher rated horses have held an edge in recent years, with 3 of the last 4 winners being rated 99 or higher, including the first 2 home in each of last 2 runnings.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on one or both of last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or 3 race last time
9 of 10 winners had won no more than twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 times in handicap company
6 of 10 (last 5) had won at class 2 level or above
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F (2 exceptions had won over 6F, 1 was runner-up in a 7F listed race & other ran best race when 2nd over a mile)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a race worth 12K+
5 of 10 winners (last 4) had contested a group race

Other Races
Harwoods "Hellvelyn" Classified Stakes winner (Webbow): 320 (0-2-3)
Tatler Stakes winner (Casual Glimpse): 3030 (0-2-4)
Shell House Stakes winner (Decent Fella): 006300 (0-1-6)
Victoria Cup winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 083607 (0-1-6)
John Of Gaunt Stakes winner (the Cheka): 0 (0-0-1)
Leopardstown September H'cap winner (Below Zero): 0 (0-0-1)
Buckingham Palace Stakes winner (Manassas): 005 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Baden.Racing.com H'cap, finishing 249
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Ayr Gold Cup last time, finishing 81
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Wokingham, finishing 60
2 of 10 winners ran in 7½F Toteexacta Handicap at Chester, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in CGA Ladies Day Handicap, finishing 47

Trainers
Mick Channon (2-1-15) has trained the winner of this twice in the past 10 years.
Dandy Nicholls (1-2-15) and Kevin Ryan (1-0-5) are the only other trainers with entrants to have won this since 2001.
Mark Johnston (0-2-9) has gained a couple of places from his 9 representatives while Robert Mills (0-1-1) and Hughie Morrison (0-1-1) have both seen their sole runner in this make the places.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at Newmarket)
Horses drawn 1 to 10: 7-16-90
Horses drawn 11 to 20: 1-9-90
Horses drawn 21 or higher: 1-1-33
7 of the last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in stalls 1 to 10.

Racing Style
7 of last 9 winners at Ascot raced prominently

Price
No strong trends on the prices but there have been some big shocks in the past 10 years with 5 winners going off at 16/1, 20/1, 33/1, 40/1 & 50/1.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10 and backing the favourite would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.50.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Carrying 8-10 or more
•    Officially rated 99 or higher
•    Finished in the first 3 in a class 2 or 3 handicap last time
•    Won no more than 3 handicaps
•    Won over 7F
•    Won a class 2 race or higher worth 12K+
•    Contested a group race
•    Trained by Mick Channon, Dandy Nicholls or Kevin Ryan
•    Drawn 1 to 10
•    Tends to race prominently