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I am afraid Noble Mission debut is very worrying in October of all month's. He could be a Derby hope but he want to come to hand very early and grow quickly.
Born To Sea was impressive and had a very good change of gear. I wonder will Oxx aim him at the 2000 Guineas. If he hacks up in the Group 3 then you get excited. Just not sure if he was a early 2yr old....will he progress as much as i think. |
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jamesp
agreed but very very few 2yo's win with a rating of over 100 first time out. There only a few each season - the last one I remember for sure was Workforce! (although there are bound to have been others). Its rare a horse wins a listed race first time out too. The opposition was useful and the best guide may be the one that finished 4th - Experience - who has been a model of consistency and has run over 90 the last 4 runs and was thrashed about 5 lengths (15 lbs) by Born To Sea. Its hard to see how Born To Sea won't be a group horse and he will surely improve when he gets a mile too. If he progresses a bit and appreciates a step up in tip, I could see him running to a rating of around 115 or so next time. This is pretty decent. 12/1 is very poor value though; but I'm not going to be a layer even at that price! |
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A rating of 104 (RPR) first time out is exceptional and there's no doubt that he's a Group horse in the making, but I'm convinced that the combination of soft ground and strong headwind affected the performance of several of the runners (especially An Ghalanta and Experience) and the form should not be taken too literally. His next race will tell us a lot more.
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I too would rather look at the performance with my eyes rather than get too bogged down with the ratings and who he beat at this stage.
Fact is, the horse won a Listed race on its debut pulling a cart, is certainly bred for the job, and is in the right hands with a genius trainer who will know the family and how to bring out the best in him. A rating of 104 is exceptional for a debutant and promises a lot more to come ( don't forget his illustrious brother was only 4th in a maiden fto). My one concern would be a very noticeable knee action which would see him a non starter in a fast ground Newmarket Guineas. 12/1 is skinny at this stage but, seriously, would you lay any bigger given the above ? |
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i think the fact that he won the listed race so easily fto combined with his pedigree and hes a half brother to arguably the greatest horse than ever lived it would be a great surprise, to me anyway if he doesnt go on to great things after what i saw!!
im aware it doesnt work that way as a run and great genes doesnt make a great horse but it was taking! i wont be betting at 6/1 which is just scandelous by the bookies but i can kind of understand why theyre afraid! |
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run= rule
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As I said before, I would rate him in the upper 80's, certainly no higher than 90, on the basis of that debut win. It may have been a Listed race on paper, but it was no better than an average Curragh maiden in reality, using Pearl In The Sand and Lanett Lady as a guide.
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My take on it was that it wasn't much of a race for the grade, mainly exposed and inexperienced types.
A good performance from one of the ones with room for improvement would have won it and as it happened, despite Oxx's proclamations, his horse proved plenty good enough. Interestingly, the market suggested quite the opposite to what Oxx stated beforehand. As such, to win the race and win well, was a pretty decent performance and clearly suggests a Group class horse but at this stage little more. Jamesp's suggestion of high 80's is a particularly stingy assessment but the suggestions at the other end of the scale are, whilst possible, quite fanciful too. You've got to admire the way he powered clear but were it not for his illustrious relation he'd be 25/1 or more for Newmarket. Let's all remember that the year Sea the Stars won the Guineas he went off 8/1 and for most of the winter the racing public thought ARAZAN was Oxx's horse for Newmarket. It's surely more likely that he'll emulate Arazan than his brother. Current quotes are an absolute joke. |
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if, oxx had run BTS in a maiden in the curragh or leopardtown and he won his maiden in convincing fashion as he did on sat he'd still have be quoted as low as 8-1. while it may have been a weak to average listed contest he took on horses who have plenty of racecourse exp.
He had high knee action but id attribute a bit of that to him pulling as murtagh kept him tucked him in only let him go at the furlong pole, from there his knee action wasnt so high. remember STS went on soft ground as a 2year old so i would read into him not going on good, or good to firm ground, in an antipost market firms can simply avoid horse by going clear lower than opposition, happens every year, in this case by offering 6's to others 12's/10's... be mindfull what price he'll be if he wins the group 3 contest, even if the dewhurst is won by a AOB trained galileo out of a danehill mare. |
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Maybe jamesp you are right. however if you are Experience would have run at least a stone below form and I personally don't think this happened.
An Ghalanta in 3rd finished almost to the ounce as far in front of Experience as she had previously and both are solid yardsticks. Experience has run between 90 and 100 on the 3 of the last 4 outings and according to the racing post Al Ghanati has run 95,95, and 95, on her last three runs. If you want to make Born To Sea only 88, you would have to say that Al Ghanati ran only 79; this is just inconceivable to me I'm afraid. |
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To be honest, I was stretching the point. The truth probably lies somewhere between the two extreme points of view (my ultra-pessimistic view of the form and the Racing Post's extremely positive view). The Irish handicapper, for what it's worth, has rated the runner-up Pearl In The Sand 93 and the fifth Lanett Lady 85, so he clearly thinks that Experience ran about 8lbs below her official rating of 99 and that An Ghalanta also ran a few pounds below her official mark of 97. The winner has not been given an official rating, but it would have to be around the 100 mark. I would still have to rate him a bit lower than that, based purely on my interpretation of the bare form (and the likelihood that An Ghalanta ran more than just a few pounds below her rating). Perhaps in the mid-90's. Anyway, it will all become academic once he's had his second race. A very smart prospect, to be sure.
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your stretched point (pardon the expression) may be correct though - time will tell.
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Imo I don't think too much time should be spent focusing on the exact rating achieved by BTS on 2yo debut - he certainly achieved something mid 80s+ which marks him out as a decent newcomer. What you want to see on a debut performance is some promise, after all STS was beaten into 4th on his debut & that didn't stop him from achieving great things. BTS certainly did all that could be expected of him & was well-backed to do so, so it would seem he was expected to win regardless of whether or not any of the other horses disappointed or not. That alone suggests he was thought capable of running in excess of the btn horses best ratings in the 90s. Coupled with the top-class breeding BTS has & the capable trainer in whose hands he is in, & there's no knowing at this stage where his ceiling will be. I certainly get the feeling they think he'll go to the top, & a Gp3 race nto should be well within his capabilities. The ratings that matter are the ones he'd be capable of on Guineas/Derby day, & there's no way of judging that from a debut run no matter how hard you look through the form.
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The form hasn't been working out quite as well as might have been expected. The form of An Ghalanta (beaten 2¼l by Born To Sea) continues on a downward trajectory - she finished fifth (beaten 4 lengths) in a Dundalk nursery on Friday. Lanett Lady (beaten 5¼ lengths by Born To Sea) has just finished fourth (beaten nearly 7 lengths) behind impressive debut winner Nephrite at the Curragh. Born To Sea is a highly promising colt, but that Listed race he won was not much better than an above-average maiden for the track.
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Agreed.
That Nephrite looked rather smart, particularly for 3yo prospects. |