Born To Sea

I had little early this week on here for 2000g and have to be happy with that debut.

BORN TO SEA was catapulted to the head of the markets for next season's Classics after a taking performance on debut in the Listed Blenheim Stakes at the Curragh on Saturday.

Half-brother to the great Sea The Stars, the juvenile won by a length and a half, and was made new favourite for the 2,000 Guineas by Paddy Power at 6-1, although William Hill were more circumspect, going 12-1 (from 33).
 
For the Derby, the colt is now a general 16-1 chance, joining Camelot at the head of the market with most firms.

Johnny Murtagh had to wait to make his move in the race, but once switched to the outside, the 5-2 favourite won well.

Trainer Oxx said: "The main objective was to let him have a nice experience today. It was a good performance to win a Listed race on his first run.

"He's a lot more precocious than his brother [Sea The Stars] you could nearly have run him in April. The plan was to run in July but he got sore shins.

"He did very well to comeoff the pace and quicken up the way he did as he was quite green. I'm not expecting him to be his brother again but if we win something nice that's great."

When asked about future plans, Oxx added: "He'll run next in the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown at the end of October. That will be his only other run this year."



Frankel's brother Noble Mission could start soon

NOBLE MISSION, a brother of the brilliant Frankel, is on course to make his debut at the beginning of next month.

Like his sibling, Noble Mission is owned by Khalid Abdullah and trained by Sir Henry Cecil, who is happy with the two-year-old.

Abdullah's racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe said on Saturday: "He's in great shape. I saw him the other night and Henry is very pleased with him.

"It's slightly bad luck for him who his brother his, but he's a very good sort and we hope to see him race early October."

Frankel, meanwhile, remains on course for the Qipco Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on October 15 and Grimthorpe paid tribute to the star of the Flat season.

Speaking on the Morning Line, he said: "We always hoped he'd be as good as he's been.

"He was a lovely foal, pretty exceptional yearling, and he's progressed from there.

"But you have to pinch yourself when you look at some of his performances this year."

impressive

7/1 for the Guineas is a bit silly though aint it ?

Well you can get much bigger than 7s. Was 16s after the race for a while and still 12s with Ladbrokes now.

Thought that was awesome today.

so we will get to see sea the stars vs frankel after all

Nice one, Prince!

whats the general record of horsies that win a Listed / Group race on their 2yr old racecourse debut?

don't know the stats but I can imagine that very few do. I remember that listen won a listed race on her debut a few years back, and of course chief singer won the coventry on his debut, but in general it just doesn't happen (also very few make their debut in listed/group class)

was 20-1 for a while after the race

Ive been waiting for this horse to run since Feb when I bet a double for him to win the derby and guineas @ 66/1 for each of the races, brilliant to see how good he was.

It is a bit concerning the way John ox is down playing his expectations and I cant understand why he is putting him in the  Group 3 Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown and not the beresford stakes which I thought was his preffered route for his runners going to the derby/guineas.

It makes me either think he has a better horse he prefers the chances of,or he just wants to work with the horse before putting it into a better race, or the Berefords stakes is coming a little early.

cmdo,
That double looks a shrewd investment, now. Which bookie took the bet?

You cant have a win double at fixed odds for each race individually though can you?

Reason being that if he wins the Guineas he would shorten for the Derby (I'm not saying it means it would win). For a double like that you'd need to request special odds for it to win both and you'd be given a single price for the double as a whole.

I'd check your ticket. If online I would call the bookmaker, some sites do mistakenly allow you to place doubles like that but they wont honour them if you get that far. At best they would pay them as win singles. If you did it online call them now and get revised odds.

If you did get a genuine double like that then well done sir. But please check with your bookies to be sure.

Sorry my fist line should have read...

You cant have a win double on the same horse at fixed odds for each race individually though can you?

Cruise it was 66/1 for the individual races and 4488/1 for the double.

Its easier to say I got 66/1 for each race to compare the odds to what they are now.

The double is a related contingency. They will call the 4000+ odds a palpable error.

In this case they are supposed to quote you a particular price for the double.

Typically if they are offering 66/1 for The Guineas, then they would assume he'd be about a 5/2 chance for The Derby having won at Newmarket.

So the double would be about 200/1 at best.

Please try harder cmdo.

cmdo
Date Joined: 10 Sep 11

cmdo please speak to whoever took the bet. If it were to go on and win both you will feel sick

Yes as they might just void it rather than give 150/1 or whatever

Just found an old thread from the time Cmdo said he placed ther bet


SEA THE STARS’ yearling three-parts brother Born To Sea has been priced up at 66-1 for the 2012 2,000 Guineas and Derby by Ladbrokes. He is a 200-1 shot to pull off the double.

very very impressive today!

There are more horses than you think that win first time out in Listed + races.

Just last year Chrysanthemum, who runs today incidentally, won a Listed race on debut for David Wachman.

Two years ago, a horse called Moineach ( ) won a Group3 on debut for Jim Bolger but only managed to win another G3 in her career.

In recent years the only top class horse I can remember that won a Listed+ race on debut that went on to win at Group1 level was Lush Lashes who won the Goffs Million for Jim Bolger.

the 7/1 quote I read on Twitter, 16/1 much more like it.

The mighty Lammtarra won the Washington Singer Stakes on debut.

the impressive thing about born to sea is how much he looks like his famous sibling. also look at a video
of the curragh run- past the line the jockey has a real problem pulling him up- has the same level of enthusiam
for the game and desire to compete.

People might say his price is bad but you look at the guineas market- theres plenty i'd give no chance to- trumpet major for example should be 2000-1, if that win's a guineas i'll give up the game. ditto power.

thanks A_T

good interview with Oxx. Describes him as more closely coupled than STS and takes after his sire. More taller and less rangy too.

the guineas will certainly be his cup of tea on pedigree anyway!!


gonna be a good miler!

looking forward to seeing frankels bro now!! hopefully will win too and meet at somestage in their careers!!

all the 16/1 at Lads has now gone fyi, 10/1 they have now. INUNDATED WITH SUPPORTERS, apparently.

Maoineach won a g3 on her 2yo debut

^^^^^ sorry about the echo sint

Protectress won a listed race on debut for Cecil, beat Islington. Only ran once more.

Lush Lashes won a highly competitive sales race on her debut ( which was a Group 2/ 3 in  reality )

Easier for fillies as much less competitive - have any colts done it other than Lammtara and Chief Singer, both of whom turned out OK?

A few more colts that have won a Listed race on their two-year-old debut: Moccasin Run (Woodcote Stakes, 1993), Shamikh (Chesham Stakes, 1996), Monashee Mountain (Rochestown Stakes, 1999), Pirate Of Penzance (Rochestown Stakes, 2000), Pyrus (Marble Hill Stakes, 2000), Muqbil (Washington Singer Stakes, 2002), Golden Arrow (Rochestown Stakes, 2005).  There are doubtless others.

It was a highly impressive debut, but let's take a reality check.  Firstly, I think it would be very unwise to assume that the fillies An Ghalanta and Experience ran to their best.  An Ghalanta has been on the go since April (she was having her ninth race of the season), is almost certainly more effective at 5f than 6f and was racing into a strong headwind on the softest ground she has so far encountered.  Experience, who was having her seventh race in little more than three months, ran flat and didn't get home (would have preferred better ground).  I'm convinced that both these fillies ran well below their best form.  The runner-up Pearl In The Sand was a thrice-raced maiden whose previous efforts had been rated 69, 79 and 77 by the Racing Post handicapper: on this occasion she was a little slowly away and her jockey was able to get her plenty of cover against the headwind, but there is no particular reason for believing that she ran way above her previous efforts.  The fifth Lanett Lady (beaten 5¼ lengths) had been beaten by the same margin last time out in a Cork maiden, where she finished just ahead of fillies that were officially rated 73 and 72.  Using Lanett Lady as a guide it's hard to rate Born To Sea any higher than about 90 (i.e. the sort of rating you'd give to an above average maiden winner), even if you accept that Lanett Lady coped with the soft ground.  Using Pearl In The Sand as a guide, I would have to bring the winner's rating down to about 87.

The soft ground and strong headwind did for several of the runners and helped make Born To Sea's performance look more meritorious than perhaps it was.  He's undoubtedly very promising and well worth stepping up to a Group 3 race next time, but people are getting a bit carried away by his pedigree (in my opinion).

Excellent post James.

Don't get me wrong the horse is obviously a nice prospect and is with the very best trainer but anything under 25/1 is a total joke.

On a simialr subject what has happened to Frankels half brother who some have backed for next years 2,000 Guineas - has he been out yet?

It's a full brother called Nobel Mission - they say they are aiming to run it next month.

Noble Mission

I am afraid Noble Mission debut is very worrying in October of all month's. He could be a Derby hope but he want to come to hand very early and grow quickly.

Born To Sea was impressive and had a very good change of gear. I wonder will Oxx aim him at the 2000 Guineas. If he hacks up in the Group 3 then you get excited.

Just not sure if he was a early 2yr old....will he progress as much as i think.

jamesp

agreed but very very few 2yo's win with a rating of over 100 first time out. There only a few each season - the last one I remember for sure was Workforce! (although there are bound to have been others).

Its rare a horse wins a listed race first time out too.

The opposition was useful and the best guide may be the one that finished 4th - Experience - who has been a model of consistency and has run over 90 the last 4 runs and was thrashed about 5 lengths (15 lbs) by Born To Sea.

Its hard to see how Born To Sea won't be a group horse and he will surely improve when he gets a mile too. If he progresses a bit and appreciates a step up in tip, I could see him running to a rating of around 115 or so next time. This is pretty decent.

12/1 is very poor value though; but I'm not going to be  a layer even at that price!

A rating of 104 (RPR) first time out is exceptional and there's no doubt that he's a Group horse in the making, but I'm convinced that the combination of soft ground and strong headwind affected the performance of several of the runners (especially An Ghalanta and Experience) and the form should not be taken too literally.  His next race will tell us a lot more.

I too would rather look at the performance with my eyes rather than get too bogged down with the ratings and who he beat at this stage.
Fact is, the horse won a Listed race on its debut pulling a cart, is certainly bred for the job, and is in the right hands with a genius trainer who will know the family and how to bring out the best in him.
A rating of 104 is exceptional for a debutant and promises a lot more to come ( don't forget his illustrious brother was only 4th in a maiden fto). My one concern would be a very noticeable knee action which would see him a non starter in a fast ground Newmarket Guineas.
12/1 is skinny at this stage but, seriously, would you lay any bigger given the above ?

i think the fact that he won the listed race so easily fto combined with his pedigree and hes a half brother to arguably the greatest horse than ever lived it would be a great surprise, to me anyway if he doesnt go on to great things after what i saw!!

im aware it doesnt work that way as a run and great genes doesnt make a great horse but it was taking!

i wont be betting at 6/1 which is just scandelous by the bookies but i can kind of understand why theyre afraid!

run= rule

As I said before, I would rate him in the upper 80's, certainly no higher than 90, on the basis of that debut win.  It may have been a Listed race on paper, but it was no better than an average Curragh maiden in reality, using Pearl In The Sand and Lanett Lady as a guide.

My take on it was that it wasn't much of a race for the grade, mainly exposed and inexperienced types.

A good performance from one of the ones with room for improvement would have won it and as it happened, despite Oxx's proclamations, his horse proved plenty good enough.  Interestingly, the market suggested quite the opposite to what Oxx stated beforehand.

As such, to win the race and win well, was a pretty decent performance and clearly suggests a Group class horse but at this stage little more.

Jamesp's suggestion of high 80's is a particularly stingy assessment but the suggestions at the other end of the scale are, whilst possible, quite fanciful too.

You've got to admire the way he powered clear but were it not for his illustrious relation he'd be 25/1 or more for Newmarket.

Let's all remember that the year Sea the Stars won the Guineas he went off 8/1 and for most of the winter the racing public thought ARAZAN was Oxx's horse for Newmarket.  It's surely more likely that he'll emulate Arazan than his brother.
Current quotes are an absolute joke.

if, oxx had run BTS in a maiden in the curragh or leopardtown and he won his maiden in convincing fashion as he did on sat he'd still have be quoted as low as 8-1. while it may have been a weak to average listed contest he took on horses who have plenty of racecourse exp.
He had high knee action but id attribute a bit of that to him pulling as murtagh kept him tucked him in only let him go at the furlong pole, from there his knee action wasnt so high. remember STS went on soft ground as a 2year old so i would read into him not going on good, or good to firm ground,
in an antipost market firms can simply avoid horse by going clear lower than opposition, happens every year, in this case by offering 6's to others 12's/10's...
be mindfull what price he'll be if he wins the group 3 contest, even if the dewhurst is won by a AOB trained galileo out of a danehill mare.

Maybe jamesp you are right. however if you are Experience would have run at least a stone below form and I personally don't think this happened.

An Ghalanta in 3rd finished almost to the ounce as far in front of Experience as she had previously and both are solid yardsticks. Experience has run between 90 and 100 on the 3 of the last 4 outings and according to the racing post Al Ghanati has run 95,95, and 95, on her last three runs. If you want to make Born To Sea only 88, you would have to say that Al Ghanati ran only 79; this is just inconceivable to me I'm afraid.

To be honest, I was stretching the point.  The truth probably lies somewhere between the two extreme points of view (my ultra-pessimistic view of the form and the Racing Post's extremely positive view).  The Irish handicapper, for what it's worth, has rated the runner-up Pearl In The Sand 93 and the fifth Lanett Lady 85, so he clearly thinks that Experience ran about 8lbs below her official rating of 99 and that An Ghalanta also ran a few pounds below her official mark of 97.  The winner has not been given an official rating, but it would have to be around the 100 mark.  I would still have to rate him a bit lower than that, based purely on my interpretation of the bare form (and the likelihood that An Ghalanta ran more than just a few pounds below her rating).  Perhaps in the mid-90's.  Anyway, it will all become academic once he's had his second race.  A very smart prospect, to be sure.

your stretched point (pardon the expression) may be correct though - time will tell.

Imo I don't think too much time should be spent focusing on the exact rating achieved by BTS on 2yo debut - he certainly achieved something mid 80s+ which marks him out as a decent newcomer. What you want to see on a debut performance is some promise, after all STS was beaten into 4th on his debut & that didn't stop him from achieving great things. BTS certainly did all that could be expected of him & was well-backed to do so, so it would seem he was expected to win regardless of whether or not any of the other horses disappointed or not. That alone suggests he was thought capable of running in excess of the btn horses best ratings in the 90s. Coupled with the top-class breeding BTS has & the capable trainer in whose hands he is in, & there's no knowing at this stage where his ceiling will be. I certainly get the feeling they think he'll go to the top, & a Gp3 race nto should be well within his capabilities. The ratings that matter are the ones he'd be capable of on Guineas/Derby day, & there's no way of judging that from a debut run no matter how hard you look through the form.

The form hasn't been working out quite as well as might have been expected.  The form of An Ghalanta (beaten 2¼l by Born To Sea) continues on a downward trajectory - she finished fifth (beaten 4 lengths) in a Dundalk nursery on Friday.  Lanett Lady (beaten 5¼ lengths by Born To Sea) has just finished fourth (beaten nearly 7 lengths) behind impressive debut winner Nephrite at the Curragh.  Born To Sea is a highly promising colt, but that Listed race he won was not much better than an above-average maiden for the track.

Agreed.

That Nephrite looked rather smart, particularly for 3yo prospects.