Horse Antepost
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30 Aug 11
18:33
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Date Joined:
09 Sep 03
Bideford Legend (7) , Blazing Tempo (8) , Dancing Tornado (12) , Questions Answered (12) , Uncle Junior (12) , Adams Island (14) , Alfa Beat (14) , Daffern Seal (14) , Fosters Cross (14) , Aigle DOr (16) , Lenabane (16) , Ponmeoath (16) , Gonebeyondrecall (20) , Minella Boys (20) , Muirhead (20) , Qulinton (20) , Sarteano (20) , Arklow Ger (25) , Ballyholland (25) , Dr Whizz (25) - Others 25 or more
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10 Year Trends for the Kerry National
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-1-14
7yo: 3-6-32
8yo: 2-8-49
9yo: 3-10-47
10yo+: 0-4-28
Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 28 runners (16.4% of total runners).
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-9-56
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-20-115
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 4 of the last 6, including the first 3 home in past 2 renewals, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10.
Top Weight: 6F731F0565 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-17-85
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-12-86
Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 50% of the total runners. The last 3 winners have been rated 135+.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced over hurdles)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (2 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)
5 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Alfa Beat): 76165 (1-0-5)
Galway Plate winner (Blazing tempo): B3 (0-1-2)
Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Daffern Seal): 26 (0-1-2)
www.themalton.com Chase winner (Psycho): 9F (0-0-2)
McSweeney Arms H'cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 0F90F (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 6 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-7) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008.
Michael Hourigan (1-5-9) has seen 6 of his 9 runners make the frame while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010.
Charles Byrnes (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year to have won it since 2001.
British–trained runners (0-1-13) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 13 runners in past 10 runnings.
Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-0-8) has a super record in this race in the past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 7 winners.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 7 rides in this since 2001 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no winner has gone off bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (1-5-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 9
• Carrying 10-10 or more
• Officially rated 126 or higher
• Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)
• Ran over hurdles last time out
• Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
• Second or third season chaser
• Won over 2M 3F+
• Won a chase worth 12K+
• Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival
• Ran in a chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
• First 6 in Galway Plate and/or Munster National
• Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin
• Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty
• Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-1-14
7yo: 3-6-32
8yo: 2-8-49
9yo: 3-10-47
10yo+: 0-4-28
Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 28 runners (16.4% of total runners).
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-9-56
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-20-115
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 4 of the last 6, including the first 3 home in past 2 renewals, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10.
Top Weight: 6F731F0565 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-17-85
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-12-86
Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 50% of the total runners. The last 3 winners have been rated 135+.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced over hurdles)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (2 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)
5 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Alfa Beat): 76165 (1-0-5)
Galway Plate winner (Blazing tempo): B3 (0-1-2)
Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Daffern Seal): 26 (0-1-2)
www.themalton.com Chase winner (Psycho): 9F (0-0-2)
McSweeney Arms H'cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 0F90F (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 6 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-7) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008.
Michael Hourigan (1-5-9) has seen 6 of his 9 runners make the frame while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010.
Charles Byrnes (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year to have won it since 2001.
British–trained runners (0-1-13) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 13 runners in past 10 runnings.
Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-0-8) has a super record in this race in the past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 7 winners.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 7 rides in this since 2001 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no winner has gone off bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (1-5-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 9
• Carrying 10-10 or more
• Officially rated 126 or higher
• Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)
• Ran over hurdles last time out
• Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
• Second or third season chaser
• Won over 2M 3F+
• Won a chase worth 12K+
• Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival
• Ran in a chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
• First 6 in Galway Plate and/or Munster National
• Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin
• Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty
• Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)
cheers RC.
Current going is Soft to Heavy. Anymore rain and it might be abandoned. Welcome to the National Hunt season.
Current going is Soft to Heavy. Anymore rain and it might be abandoned. Welcome to the National Hunt season.
Blazing Tempo and Minella Boys would be the two that interest me looking at the field. Got to respect Adams Island as well, Nolan's superb.
This race sometimes throws up Grand National pointers. Only sometimes I hasten to add but I do make a record of this race.
Blazing Tempo (7) , Adams Island (9) , Bideford Legend (9) , Dancing Tornado (10) - Others 10 or more
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