The Kerry National (Listowel - Wed. 14th Sept)

10 Year Trends for the Kerry National

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-1-14
7yo: 3-6-32
8yo: 2-8-49
9yo: 3-10-47
10yo+: 0-4-28
Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 28 runners (16.4% of total runners).

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-9-56
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-20-115
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 4 of the last 6, including the first 3 home in past 2 renewals, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10.
Top Weight: 6F731F0565 (1-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-17-85
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-12-86
Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 50% of the total runners. The last 3 winners have been rated 135+.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced over hurdles)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (2 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)
5 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Alfa Beat): 76165 (1-0-5)
Galway Plate winner (Blazing tempo): B3 (0-1-2)
Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Daffern Seal): 26 (0-1-2)
www.themalton.com Chase winner (Psycho): 9F (0-0-2)
McSweeney Arms H'cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 0F90F (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 6 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-7) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008.
Michael Hourigan (1-5-9) has seen 6 of his 9 runners make the frame while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010.
Charles Byrnes (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year to have won it since 2001.
British–trained runners (0-1-13) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 13 runners in past 10 runnings.

Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-0-8) has a super record in this race in the past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 7 winners.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 7 rides in this since 2001 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no winner has gone off bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (1-5-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 6 to 9
•    Carrying 10-10 or more
•    Officially rated 126 or higher
•    Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)
•    Ran over hurdles last time out
•    Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
•    Second or third season chaser
•    Won over 2M 3F+
•    Won a chase worth 12K+
•    Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival
•    Ran in a chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
•    First 6 in Galway Plate and/or Munster National
•    Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin
•    Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty
•    Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)

That would be a pity sint

This race sometimes throws up Grand National pointers. Only sometimes I hasten to add but I do make a record of this race.

Blazing Tempo (7) , Adams Island (9) , Bideford Legend (9) , Dancing Tornado (10)  - Others  10 or more