Horse Antepost
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Who wants to practice making a book?
Who wants to practice making a book?
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Thought the Borough Cup was a right hard race to price up,but looking at the early odds I seem to have got the book just about right. I am surprised how similar the prices are and although I must be reading the form ok ,as Leo pointed out you want your prices to differ and steer you towards some value. After spending a few hours looking at the race I think TOMINATOR will go off at a shorter price than the currently quoted 8/1.
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It's very interesting putting all these books together - I spend as long looking at how people's opinions differ over certain horses as I do compiling mine!
As I have said in the email I just sent out with the summary, I think I am going to put up a couple of 'paper bets' each week as a way of seeing whether my interpretation of the key things to jump out of these summaries could be profitable for punting purposes. I'll probably do a mix of backs and lays. I've never been a layer, but when I am way longer about a horse than the market, and everyone else in this little exercise is in agreement with me, I'll probably put them up as lays on here. So, first two arrows for today: Bet 1: 1pt Lay Dark Promise 2.00 Haydock at 9.20 Bet 2: 1pt Lay Shernando 2.30 Haydock at 11.0 I realise this has the potential to go horribly wrong but think it might just add a little interest to the effort of making these books and compiling a summary if there is something to follow over time - even if it is only 'paper betting' for now! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dark Promise seemed to outperform my price by some way
 Just seemed like a low 90s handicapper to me on my look through its form. For my method i have to be quite familiar with the runners to give them an accurate price, as all my prices are determined soley by the rating, and easy to be a long way out just glancing at resuilts without seeing the races, or the runs of the horses they have run against. Takes less than 10 minutes for me to do a race where i have ratings already
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Week Three is almost on us ladies and gents, so to keep the running bets going, this week's two are:
0.5pt back Measuring Time 2.20 Goodwood at 18.0 1pt lay Berling 3.30 Chester at 4.50 Last week's two lays failed to win so the running profit/loss is +1.9 points (after commission). As I said in last week's post, this could go badly wrong but should be interesting to follow over time. It also reinforces one of the golden rules of making a book in the first place. Now I know I am using the average of our books to compare against current Betfair prices (and not my own book) but the principle of using a personal book to bet on the 'value' selections rather than the ones you fancy is the whole point. For example, I would never have backed Measuring Time at Goodwood this week (and probably wouldn't have layed Berling at Chester) but the price discrepancies make these two the obvious choices for bets this week. Obviously this is only paper betting but it is still a good thing to get in the habit of betting the prices, not the horses. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Week four is on the horizon, and this week's sole paper bet advice from our books is:
0.5pt back Masamah 3,40 Newbury at 18.0 Last week's lay duly missed the target but the back was beaten (although he certainly outran his price in 3rd), so the running profit/loss is +2.35 points (after commission). Good luck all! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This week we have two lays -
1pt lay Farhaan at 4.30 in the 2.05 Newmarket 1pt lay Alanza at 4,30 in the 3.10 Newmarket. Running profit = +1.85 points (after commission). Good luck all! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Saturday 24/09/11
Non-runner Newmarket 2.05, Swing Alone. For the record, revised prices below.
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