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I'm a big fan of Goldikova and I'd say I've rated her even higher than most, as a couple of her times in France were outstanding. She would toy with this field on her best form. However, she's a 6yo now and her performance in the Queen Anne tells me she's past her peak. That doesn't necessarily matter here as just a repeat of that form would be good enough to take this race. There has to be a chance though that she could decline further and while odds of around 1/2 might look great after the race they don't appeal to me.
Timepiece put up a decent performance when winning the Montrose as a 2yo but her progress as a 3yo stuttered, I always thought she was capable of more. She's come good on her latest two starts but I believe she's still been underrated just because of those races being run at a slow pace. Last time out her win seemed to be accredited entirely to Queally's ride. When there's no pace on there is often a tendency in the media to assume that the result rested entirely on tactics, I agree it can be (as in this year's Oaks) but I reckon it's often overstated. For me, Timepiece was always cantering over the opposition and I think she can show it was no fluke in a truly run race.
Sahpresa will also be no pushover but she's another where age might be catching up with her. At the worst I can see Timepiece finishing 3rd, so at the odds she's an each way bet to nothing and if Goldikova underperforms she might just nick it.
Timepiece put up a decent performance when winning the Montrose as a 2yo but her progress as a 3yo stuttered, I always thought she was capable of more. She's come good on her latest two starts but I believe she's still been underrated just because of those races being run at a slow pace. Last time out her win seemed to be accredited entirely to Queally's ride. When there's no pace on there is often a tendency in the media to assume that the result rested entirely on tactics, I agree it can be (as in this year's Oaks) but I reckon it's often overstated. For me, Timepiece was always cantering over the opposition and I think she can show it was no fluke in a truly run race.
Sahpresa will also be no pushover but she's another where age might be catching up with her. At the worst I can see Timepiece finishing 3rd, so at the odds she's an each way bet to nothing and if Goldikova underperforms she might just nick it.
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agree entirely,
nice to see an objective view of the situation,rather than sentimental clouding of the race by goldikova admirers,of which i am one.
I backed sahpresa lto and was inseced at the time with lemaire's ride
well back in a dawdling pace race.
I would have put my house on the placings being reversed next time.
However on re watching the falmouth in a more controlled mood,i'm not so sure.
The sheer size and stride of timepiece impresses me.
nice to see an objective view of the situation,rather than sentimental clouding of the race by goldikova admirers,of which i am one.
I backed sahpresa lto and was inseced at the time with lemaire's ride
well back in a dawdling pace race.
I would have put my house on the placings being reversed next time.
However on re watching the falmouth in a more controlled mood,i'm not so sure.
The sheer size and stride of timepiece impresses me.
I think she might struggle to beat Goldikova on her own turf however it makes perfect sense going in each way at 7's here.
Key for me is they are now running Timepiece at her best trip, 4 from 5 at the distance and only defeat was on her debut albeit in minor company prior to the Falmouth. Stable in excellent form currently so hopefully the 8 runners go to post and as you say an e/w bet to nothing.
Key for me is they are now running Timepiece at her best trip, 4 from 5 at the distance and only defeat was on her debut albeit in minor company prior to the Falmouth. Stable in excellent form currently so hopefully the 8 runners go to post and as you say an e/w bet to nothing.
Could you guys see Timepiece being able to bustle up Canford Cliffs? Can't envision that myself tbh.
I agree that there is no way Goldikova will improve at her age but I have seen nothing this Season to think she is regressing.
Good luck with Timepiece guys but the only wat I see Goldikova getting beat here is if it pours down in Deauville today
I agree that there is no way Goldikova will improve at her age but I have seen nothing this Season to think she is regressing.
Good luck with Timepiece guys but the only wat I see Goldikova getting beat here is if it pours down in Deauville today
Apieceofcake
No, I wouldn't back Timepiece to beat CC, as I've said, even if Goldikova only repeats that form she should win here. I'm confident though that the Queen Anne was some way below her very best and when a horse starts to decline you just can't be sure how they're going to run. She's obviously the most likely winner and as a fan of hers it would be good to see, but I won't be crying too much about missing out on the price.
No, I wouldn't back Timepiece to beat CC, as I've said, even if Goldikova only repeats that form she should win here. I'm confident though that the Queen Anne was some way below her very best and when a horse starts to decline you just can't be sure how they're going to run. She's obviously the most likely winner and as a fan of hers it would be good to see, but I won't be crying too much about missing out on the price.
Nova Hawk would be my tentative selection if there remains 8 runners.
Doesn't have much to find with most of these and could still be improving, 12/1 seems pretty fair tbh.
I think a Goldi/Nova Hawk forcast is the call for me though.
Doesn't have much to find with most of these and could still be improving, 12/1 seems pretty fair tbh.
I think a Goldi/Nova Hawk forcast is the call for me though.
Don't back shorties either fig and see your point of view but I think all being well, the rest of the field are running for 2nd place.
Best of luck though
Best of luck though
Why is Goldikova labelled a "6yo" as if she's some sort of geriatric?
She achieved an official rating of 124 in the Queen Anne (2lb overweight) which puts her joint 8th in the latest World Thoroughbred Rankings table. Not bad for a horse in decline and, as pointed out in a thoroughly readable preview of the Rothschild in the RP, her best rating since winning the Jaques le Marois in 2009.
It's Deauville. She should be in peak condition seeing as she'll be back here in 2 weeks for the Jacques le Marois. Freddy says he thinks she's as well as ever.
Sahpresa (slammed by Goldi in this event in 2009 and whose trainer thinks Queally stole the Falmouth on Timepiece) to follow the great mare home imo.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home_popup.sd?horse_id=688825#topHorseTabs=horse_stories&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form
She achieved an official rating of 124 in the Queen Anne (2lb overweight) which puts her joint 8th in the latest World Thoroughbred Rankings table. Not bad for a horse in decline and, as pointed out in a thoroughly readable preview of the Rothschild in the RP, her best rating since winning the Jaques le Marois in 2009.
It's Deauville. She should be in peak condition seeing as she'll be back here in 2 weeks for the Jacques le Marois. Freddy says he thinks she's as well as ever.
Sahpresa (slammed by Goldi in this event in 2009 and whose trainer thinks Queally stole the Falmouth on Timepiece) to follow the great mare home imo.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home_popup.sd?horse_id=688825#topHorseTabs=horse_stories&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form
surely the ground is all improtant to Timepiece's chance, she likes to get her toe in a bit, all her best runs have come with a bit of ease.
What is the current going ?
What is the current going ?
Figgs,i think you must be totally crazy to think that Goldikova is on the decline after what she has produced already on 2 runs this season,you seem to be basing it on the fact that you believe her effort was below par at royal ascot,when infact she ran to a figure of 125 at ascot last time out and that was her best raiting since winning the Jacques Le Marois at deauville in 2009,you also seem to really underestimate Canford Cliffs which may be another reason why your judgement is clouded.
4/7 is a huge price and should be mopped up,she has lost non of her sparkle and is as good as ever,as has been quoted many times by trainer F.Head this season.
on her first start of this season she beat a race fit Cirrus Des Aigles over a trip that is not ideal for her and she did it very very easily and he is no mug having easily won 2 group races since (giving weight away both times) and he also pushed sarafina all the way to a neck loss in the grand prix de paris,
F.Head says that she is flying at home and as good as ever and todays conditions will be perfect for her on a track she loves,apart from Zarkava she has never been beaten by her own sex and it wont happen again today
There is not even a need to mention the opposition today as we know for a fact that Goldi will run to her form and we know for a fact that non of them have or will never have the ability to match that,
another thing that i keep hearing from you and others is that because horses are reaching the age of 6 and later that they must be past there best,i dont know how much hands on experience that you have with horses,but at the ages of 6,7 and 8 they are at the peak of there physical strength,the only reason that most flat horses are retired around the age of 3 and 4 is because they have served there purpose in stud value and cashed in,nothing to do with collecting there bus pass and pension,a perfect example of that is Hurricane Fly,he is a flat bread and is a 7 year old and has just had as good a season as he has ever had and retains all his ability.
The only possible way she can be beaten is if one of the trainers of the opposition managed to sneak into Henry Cecils yard last night with a syringe,took a sample from Frankel and injected his blood and genes into his own horse
4/7 is a huge price and should be mopped up,she has lost non of her sparkle and is as good as ever,as has been quoted many times by trainer F.Head this season.
on her first start of this season she beat a race fit Cirrus Des Aigles over a trip that is not ideal for her and she did it very very easily and he is no mug having easily won 2 group races since (giving weight away both times) and he also pushed sarafina all the way to a neck loss in the grand prix de paris,
F.Head says that she is flying at home and as good as ever and todays conditions will be perfect for her on a track she loves,apart from Zarkava she has never been beaten by her own sex and it wont happen again today
There is not even a need to mention the opposition today as we know for a fact that Goldi will run to her form and we know for a fact that non of them have or will never have the ability to match that,
another thing that i keep hearing from you and others is that because horses are reaching the age of 6 and later that they must be past there best,i dont know how much hands on experience that you have with horses,but at the ages of 6,7 and 8 they are at the peak of there physical strength,the only reason that most flat horses are retired around the age of 3 and 4 is because they have served there purpose in stud value and cashed in,nothing to do with collecting there bus pass and pension,a perfect example of that is Hurricane Fly,he is a flat bread and is a 7 year old and has just had as good a season as he has ever had and retains all his ability.
The only possible way she can be beaten is if one of the trainers of the opposition managed to sneak into Henry Cecils yard last night with a syringe,took a sample from Frankel and injected his blood and genes into his own horse
TFM
I base my opinion on, amongst other factors, my interpretation of race times, which can be just as wrong as anybody's interpretation of form including the official handicapper and the trainer, however, it's served me quite well over the years. I usually find that most people who stick to official ratings can't see any further than the short priced favourites.
I do admire backers who have a strong opinion and stick to it, but in your case every week you seem to declare "certainty" about some obvious favourite or other, a few of which have been well beaten recently. At the same time you've confidently dismissed some decent priced winners.
Goldikova might well scoot in this afternoon, but I would argue that a winner at any price is not necessarily a great bet. If somebody offers me 10/11 on the toss of a coin and I correctly call heads, it doesn't mean it was a good bet. This is of course stating the bleedin' obvious but it appears that a few on here fail to grasp it.
Finally, I can't help but be cynical when backers appear to place so much significance in the result of a single race, unless it's the kind of winner that can significantly change a whole season's profit (I find it hard to believe that would be the case at Goldikova's price today). Good luck.
I base my opinion on, amongst other factors, my interpretation of race times, which can be just as wrong as anybody's interpretation of form including the official handicapper and the trainer, however, it's served me quite well over the years. I usually find that most people who stick to official ratings can't see any further than the short priced favourites.
I do admire backers who have a strong opinion and stick to it, but in your case every week you seem to declare "certainty" about some obvious favourite or other, a few of which have been well beaten recently. At the same time you've confidently dismissed some decent priced winners.
Goldikova might well scoot in this afternoon, but I would argue that a winner at any price is not necessarily a great bet. If somebody offers me 10/11 on the toss of a coin and I correctly call heads, it doesn't mean it was a good bet. This is of course stating the bleedin' obvious but it appears that a few on here fail to grasp it.
Finally, I can't help but be cynical when backers appear to place so much significance in the result of a single race, unless it's the kind of winner that can significantly change a whole season's profit (I find it hard to believe that would be the case at Goldikova's price today). Good luck.
Agree with Figgis again. Decent win bet, saver only on the place so as not to get your acocunt shut down.
I back horses purely on visual impression and form,
I take little notice of ratings,times,figures,stats,handicappers and trainers opinions
As for the kind of winner that can significantly change a whole season's profit,4/7 in this case,well i guess that all depends on what kind of stakes you are playing with,
It is very rare in racing that you can place your bet,sit back and watch the race knowing exactly what the outcome is going to be,but today with Goldikova is one of those bets
GL to you also
I take little notice of ratings,times,figures,stats,handicappers and trainers opinions
As for the kind of winner that can significantly change a whole season's profit,4/7 in this case,well i guess that all depends on what kind of stakes you are playing with,
It is very rare in racing that you can place your bet,sit back and watch the race knowing exactly what the outcome is going to be,but today with Goldikova is one of those bets
GL to you also
TFM
Big stakes or small, the percentage profit difference is the same.
Big stakes or small, the percentage profit difference is the same.
If a Big stakes punter was having just 1 bet all season on Goldikova at 4/7 today then his season would be in profit
Well done TFM and other backers, a comfortable win for the great mare. Still, it paid around 2/5 for the place on Timepiece, admittedly not quite as good as the 4/7 for the winner [;)]
If Sahpresa was ridden more prominently, perhaps where Timepiece was position, I reckon she could have won that.
queally shouldve been more aggressive on TP....going so easy and letting goldi get a free ride and a head start in the sprint was suicidal. Guess they must know they had no chance of beating her and just wanted another g1 placing.
She's back for another big race here in two weeks time so Peslier did only what was necessary. It was hands and heels.
If Sahpresa had sat up with Timepiece she probably wouldn't have found the same finishing burst. Catch 22.
If Sahpresa had sat up with Timepiece she probably wouldn't have found the same finishing burst. Catch 22.
i have to laugh at that sintonian,as when me and the rest of the Sahpresa backers in the Falmouth were saying the exact same thing and how horribley unlucky she was,you were one of the few who stated that she was not an unlucky loser and that Timepiece was the better horse
TFM, thats because the ground was different, and I stated BEFORE the race today ground is Key to Timepiece performing at her best. Her sibling Passage of Time was best with cut.
Well The going for the Falmouth Stakes and the going for the Prix Rothschild today were both run on officially 'good' ground,if anything you would have expected it to be softer today than it was at newmarket.
"i have to laugh at that sintonian,as when me and the rest of the Sahpresa backers in the Falmouth were saying the exact same thing and how horribley unlucky she was,you were one of the few who stated that she was not an unlucky loser and that Timepiece was the better horse"
He does it all the time.
He does it all the time.
sintonian Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 13999 31 Jul 11 18:53
TFM, thats because the ground was different, and I stated BEFORE the race today ground is Key to Timepiece performing at her best. Her sibling Passage of Time was best with cut.
The ground was a fair bit quicker yesterday, sint, as is generally the case with French descriptions.
Darren Lamb Joined: 26 Jan 07
Replies: 3237 31 Jul 11 14:50
probably the last victory of her career.
Not sure if I'd go as far as that, Darren, but on her current (worse) form she will have a real battle on her hands with the Robert Collet filly if they can get her ready for the Marois.
Replies: 13999 31 Jul 11 18:53
TFM, thats because the ground was different, and I stated BEFORE the race today ground is Key to Timepiece performing at her best. Her sibling Passage of Time was best with cut.
The ground was a fair bit quicker yesterday, sint, as is generally the case with French descriptions.
Darren Lamb Joined: 26 Jan 07
Replies: 3237 31 Jul 11 14:50
probably the last victory of her career.
Not sure if I'd go as far as that, Darren, but on her current (worse) form she will have a real battle on her hands with the Robert Collet filly if they can get her ready for the Marois.
Immortal Verse isn't good enough to give Goldikova a real battle. She was flattered by the 2 length winning margin in the Coronation Stakes because she got the breaks and Nova Hawk didn't.
If Canford Cliffs scopes ok it's the perfect race for him to get back into the groove and Mutual Trust has to have the best credentials for a 3yo to defeat her. Whatever happens, her presence at the Breeders Cup should scare off any European competition so she'll be going there with a live chance. Then there's the Prix Foy, etc.
probably the last victory of her career. - is just a bitter, ignorant comment that would have been better left unsaid.
If Canford Cliffs scopes ok it's the perfect race for him to get back into the groove and Mutual Trust has to have the best credentials for a 3yo to defeat her. Whatever happens, her presence at the Breeders Cup should scare off any European competition so she'll be going there with a live chance. Then there's the Prix Foy, etc.
probably the last victory of her career. - is just a bitter, ignorant comment that would have been better left unsaid.
Well as Nova Hawk in 10 appearances has never ever run as fast as Immortal Verse did that day I'd say she was just another "unlucky" horse. Mutual Trust, however, would be a worthy opponent, either way I reckon there should be value in opposing Goldikova.
After Frankel and Canford she's still the best miler in Europe by a long way - if the programme is Marois > Foret > BC Mile can see her winning all 3. Would fancy her to turn the tables on CC in the BC Mile too - it's a race she seems so suited to.
not bitter, was happy to see her win, and will be again if she does (if i've not backed against her. just my opinion at the time. on second viewing she actually had more in hand than i thought, so wouldn't actually be surprised if she does win another race or two.
of course, I meant the Prix Foret and not the Prix Foy. It should be a good match between her and Strong Suit.
By: This user is offline. Graeme83
Date Joined: 21 Sep 07 Add contact | Send message
When: 01 Aug 11 10:57 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Sep 07 | Topic/replies: 6,966 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
"i have to laugh at that sintonian,as when me and the rest of the Sahpresa backers in the Falmouth were saying the exact same thing and how horribley unlucky she was,you were one of the few who stated that she was not an unlucky loser and that Timepiece was the better horse"
He does it all the time.
Who does what Graeme ?
Date Joined: 21 Sep 07 Add contact | Send message
When: 01 Aug 11 10:57 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Sep 07 | Topic/replies: 6,966 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
"i have to laugh at that sintonian,as when me and the rest of the Sahpresa backers in the Falmouth were saying the exact same thing and how horribley unlucky she was,you were one of the few who stated that she was not an unlucky loser and that Timepiece was the better horse"
He does it all the time.
Who does what Graeme ?
Figgis, yes I know, I was referring to the going at Newmarket lto being easier.
Sint, I know you know, I was just confirming what you thought after TFM said the going would've been expected (for some reason?) to be softer yesterday
Good stuff [:D]
Now, I wonder what Graeme83 was babbling on about. I do hope he was not drunk (again).
Now, I wonder what Graeme83 was babbling on about. I do hope he was not drunk (again).
Sintonian you were guilty of one of the worst pieces of eejitology in last seasons dewhurst thread. You tore a horse from pillar to post, then funnily enough you backed it after you noticed others did. That's how you operate Mr General consenseus boy. You're a betfair groupy.
it's funny how you boast about being capable of ''making your own mind up'' , yet at the same time you confess to being ''stung many times this season''. Perhaps you need a rethink
You also accused people of starting threads for egotistical reasons, yet, lo and behold, you start one of your own, trying to show off your punting skills.
Lets face it Graeme, your a guesser, and probably a bit disillusioned with life at the moment. But feel free to keep knocking me mate, im in decent profit this season with backs & lays.
You also accused people of starting threads for egotistical reasons, yet, lo and behold, you start one of your own, trying to show off your punting skills.
Lets face it Graeme, your a guesser, and probably a bit disillusioned with life at the moment. But feel free to keep knocking me mate, im in decent profit this season with backs & lays.
"You also accused people of starting threads for egotistical reasons,"
No i didn't. I said you're the egotistical one. It looks as if i hit a raw nerve. You become a wee sweety pie when someone points out facts. You should learn after the lesson Eric Morris taught you.
No i didn't. I said you're the egotistical one. It looks as if i hit a raw nerve. You become a wee sweety pie when someone points out facts. You should learn after the lesson Eric Morris taught you.
I aint the one who relates to punters pal Mcririck. Oh I forgot, you were drunk.
You've posted loser after loser since you've been on here Graeme83, and your mate TAPK has gone into hiding and not posted a single winner on his thread.
Anyway, I leave you to wollow in your misery Graeme83, your a cycnical bugger and do not have the right mindset for betting, way too emotional.
And my offer stills stands, if you can beat my P&L over a period of 6 months I will happily give you £1k. Dont give us this n0nsense about egos when you have started you own thread posting your own bets. Either put up or stop picking fights.
Oh I forgot, you were drunk.You've posted loser after loser since you've been on here Graeme83, and your mate TAPK has gone into hiding and not posted a single winner on his thread.
Anyway, I leave you to wollow in your misery Graeme83, your a cycnical bugger and do not have the right mindset for betting, way too emotional.
And my offer stills stands, if you can beat my P&L over a period of 6 months I will happily give you £1k. Dont give us this n0nsense about egos when you have started you own thread posting your own bets. Either put up or stop picking fights.
You are now embarrasing yourself Sintonian, just like you have been for a long time. TAPK would blast you out of the water and toy with you when it comes to punting. He has more knowledge of racing in his finger nail than you have put altogether. All you do is hang around this place all day and pick up on what other people say. Your Dewhurst thread behaviour in last seasons thread was the most embarrasing and clueless thing i've witnessed. Add to the fact that a young boy like Eric Morris took the mickey right out of you, then i'm beggining to think that i should just stick my thumbs up at you and smile when you talk utter mince. It the best way to treat a moron.
& thumbs up
& thumbs up
I was expecting you to bottle it tbf, Graeme.
It's quite black and white really, and anyone else reading said threads will be able to see that. It's not like you have a reason to decline either, other than being a coward.
And as for you mate TAPK, not a chance.
It's quite black and white really, and anyone else reading said threads will be able to see that. It's not like you have a reason to decline either, other than being a coward.
And as for you mate TAPK, not a chance.
Lets do it Graeme .. why not ?
Your the one starting all this crap , so instead of attacking me why not just prove to everyone you knwo what your talking about ?
Why would you turn it down .. you've staretd your own betting thread afterall ..
Your the one starting all this crap , so instead of attacking me why not just prove to everyone you knwo what your talking about ?
Why would you turn it down .. you've staretd your own betting thread afterall ..
so thats your way of telling everyone your a bottler.
May I suggest you dont pick fights in future, Graeme?
You've developed a mask to try and get your way out if it now, and its quite obvious to people reading.
You dont even have the guts to give straight answers, quite bizzare for a man who says he has no Ego.
Think a bit more rationally in future, i'd advise. Or just give up betting.
May I suggest you dont pick fights in future, Graeme?
You've developed a mask to try and get your way out if it now, and its quite obvious to people reading.
You dont even have the guts to give straight answers, quite bizzare for a man who says he has no Ego.
Think a bit more rationally in future, i'd advise. Or just give up betting.
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