Grand Prix De Paris

Hmmm..

http://www.zone-turf.fr/courses/reunions/14-juillet-2011/partants-r1-juddmonte-grand-prix-de-paris.html#pariez

wtf, Ryan 'Lucifer' Moore up on a twice-raced, coolmore Galileo/Danehill cross
(Teofilo, Frankel, Golden Lilac)
Trouble in running lto at ascot
20/1 in a 7 runner french 3yo grup 1 looks a bit big

TB needes every inch of 12f and a strong gallop,if he gets that then he would beat Seville evey time,but there is no way he will get that on thursday,the race will be won by a turn of foot and that counts out TB,this is between RM and Seville,prices are just right between those 2,11/4 for both,its a coin flip for me and for the simple reason that RM has home field advantage,i will go for him,wont be betting on the race tho,unless i decide to place lay TB

TFM

Treasure Beach showed a turn of foot to beat Nathaniel in the Chester Vase off a slow gallop. Has Seville ever really shown a turn of foot? What makes you think the race won't be run at a strong gallop? The last 3 runnings of the race have been run at a true pace and Coolmore, one way or another, would surely want to ensure a proper pace.

Treasure Beach or Reliable Man will win the race. Marksmanship is v interesting entry? Or is he a pacemaker?

Trends for the past 10 years below, the fact distance was extended from 1m21/2f to 1m4f will affect relevance of some trends:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
9 of 10 winners (last 9) sired by a group 1 or 2 winner
10 or 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.8+
9 of 10 winners were born in January, February or March 

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had 3 to 6 career starts
9 of 10 winners had run 3 or 4 times that season (exception had run once, winning group 1 Prix Jean Prat)
9 of 10 winners achieved career highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a listed or group race last time (exception was 9th in Prix du Jockey Club)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F+ (only 3 were distance winners)
5 of 10 winners did not run as 2yos (3 of other 5 won a group race as a 2yo)
Since the trip was changed to 1M 4F no winner had previously won above group 3
7 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (2 exceptions were having first course start & other was beaten a half length on only previous run here)

Other Races
Prix du Lys winner (Kreem): 21414 (2-1-5)
Prix Noailles winner (Grand Vent): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix de L'Avre winner (Meandre): 206 (0-1-3)
Chester Vase winner (Treasure Beach): 4 (0-0-1)
Prix Comrade winner (Meandre): 5 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Prix du Jockey Club, finishing 490404
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Omnium II, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Greffulhe, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix du Lys last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Jean Prat last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Des Chenes as a 2yo, finishing 11

Trainers
French-trained horses: 9-9-51
Irish-trained horses: 1-2-16 (all Aidan O’Brien)
British-trained horses: 0-3-12
German-trained horses: 0-1-2
Andre Fabre (2-3-12) won this race 7 times in the 1990’s but he has not done as well in past 10 years, gaining just 2 wins from his 12 runners since 2001.
Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-0-5) has also saddled the winner twice in the past 10 runnings.
Aidan O’Brien (1-2-16) is the only foreign trainer to have won the race since 2001. However he has only won the race once from 16 runners (just under 20% of the total runners), and many of his representatives were towards the top of the market.

Racing Style
Since this race has been run over 1M 4F, 6 of 6 winners raced in mid-division or behind leaders, so sitting in behind the leader will be the place to be coming into the straight.

Price
10 of 10 winners were sent off 5/1 or shorter
Clearly this is not a race to be looking for an upset.
Favourites have won 6 of the last 9 renewals.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    By a group 1 or 2 winning sire with stamina index of 8.8+
•    Had 3 to 6 career starts (running 3 or 4 times this season)
•    Finished in first 4 last time, posting highest RPR
•    Ran in past 40 days
•    Course winner (or having first run at Longchamp)
•    Won over 1M 1F+
•    Won a group or listed race
•    Group 1 win or place form not essential
•    Unplaced in the Prix du Jockey Club
•    First 3 in Prix du Lys, Jean Prat and/or Greffulhe
•    Trained in France
•    Trained by Andre Fabre or Alain Royer-Dupre
•    Priced 5/1 or lower (favourites do well)

Think I will leave this to Fabre and both of his runners.

A little on Marksmanship for me too at a price.

Presumably has a mountain to climb on the figs, and if Moore hadn't been jocked up for it, one would have been concerned that it will be sacrificed as one of those Ballydoyle pacemakers that go off on a one-horse speed duel.

As thelatarps points out, met trouble in running at RA before finishing with a rattle. May be outclassed, but the maiden he won has produced a stack of winners and he might have needed the RA run given he'd been off for 2 months.

A maiden winner against a batch of group 1 winning colts-No thanks,not even at 10 times the price

Any other opinions on this gents?

Are the Fabre runners in with a shout here?

Aidan won this in 2005 with Scorpion who was unraced as a 2yo .. Marksmanship ... but at least Scorpion had placed in the Irish Derby (2nd) beforehand.

Scorpion then Won the St Leger on his next start so it will be interesting what the plans are for Treasure Beach,Seville & Marksmanship after this race, probably heading for Doncaster.

1 (1)        32411    Kreem
2 (2)        23-121    Treasure Beach
3 (7)        5-2211    Meandre
4 (5)        12-202    Seville
5 (3)        17    Marksmanship
6 (4)        111    Reliable Man
7 (6)        22-222    Bubble Chic

Reliable Man (11/4) , Treasure Beach (11/4) , Seville (10/3) , Bubble Chic (13/2)  Meandre (10/1) Marksmanship (25/1) Kreem (25/1)

going to busy tomorrow. see if I get home in time. backed Reliable Man and put a lay at evens in running.

A difficult race to be confident about. Reliable Man is tempting but I thought he had quite a tough race last time and couldn't be sure how he'll come out of that. Seville has been disappointing this year but still has potential to improve judging by his good 2yo form. Throw in a couple of potential improvers from Fabre. Treasure Beach narrowly tops my ratings but I'm laying him, simply because I think those last two taxing efforts might take their toll. I'm hoping for a truly run race so he'll be fully tested again.

No arc winners there...all about Pour Moi.

Agree Pour Moi in a different class - forget this lot.

very nieve bunch of french jockeys there giving a lead like that to proven high class group 1 winners (except the winner of course)

the older horses will dominate the arc,pour moi will be out withe the washing

Any links for that race please ?

Yet another second for Seville. Doesn't seem to matter which race he runs in ,he just wants to come second.
Must be a decent chance that if he runs in the Arc he'll come second. If he gave his all and had a will to
win he'd be a real star.

The winner looks a superstar to me. Pulled very hard early on despite a decent gallop and still won, again showing a brilliant turn of foot as he had last time. Seville a reliable yardstick, as is Reliable Man (Treasure Beach probably needs a break). Looks a serious threat to Pour Moi.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-F9aM4MRKUM

Winner was quite impressive.

thanks tavaris[;)]

Actually watching it again winner might be pretty good - the O'B horses went a good pace but not too fast as shown by the fact that nothing else caught them.

Good burst of speed in final furlong, was like a turbo charger had been switched on. Good run from the front for Seville too - deserves to win one.

His run on Derby weekend was pretty impressive too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1As6WpbThc&feature=related

Wish I'd watched that last night!

The time was pretty fast, but my impression was the O'Brien horses were tiring, rather than the winner quickening.

think the o'Brien horses were a littled tired,they've had a busy few months and maybe didnt run to their best on the day giving the winner a chance to win,think that'll be it for while with some of them with seville maybe going for the st leger.pour moi for me still one to beat in arc and will be helped by going the tried and trusted niel route following a nice break.thought reliable man would be better tonight but maybe couldnt be ruled out on soft going in oct,another who needs a rest

Would be a surprise if the O'Brien horses weren't tiring because that's what always happens in the last furlong of a horse race

Who said anything about the last furlong?

3YOs feeble at middle distance this year IMO

The winner was stepping up from Listed/Group 3 wasn't he Not much of a step this year.

Don't know why Pour Moi is thought to be well ahead of them based on his narrow Derby win.

No 3YO in the 1st 6 of The Arc i'd guess .Unless Frankel turns up.

Seemed that previous group 1 form was not a necessity to win this race. Don't have Pour Moi down as any superstar yet, on a line thourgh Treasure Beach Meandre would have the beating of him, though the fact 3yos have dominated the Arc recently would still make me think they'll be at least one 3yo in first 3

Still interested in Sarafina for the Arc after her run last season.

I don't know how anyone can crab Meandre after that.

Made up an heroic amount of ground to win with a turn of foot only the good ones have.

Look through his record and you'll see a horse that needs 12f and fast ground. He ran plenty on soft ground and showed mediocre form but has taken it to a new level given summer ground and a trip.  If the ground rode fast in October, as it does more often than most think, he'd have good claims.

Credit to Nick Mordin once more.  He had the Prix de Jockey Club down as a weak renewal and highlighted Meandre as an improving horse with a good chance in this race and also foresaw Seville improving past Treasure Beach.

The time was good too, 2.26.6, pleasingly comparable with Rail Link's 2.26.4 and Montmartre's 2.26.2
(I know, I know, direct time comparisons are meaningless; just a big fan of both these horses!)

3yr olds can improve big time from the summer on and Fabre clearly had more than a clue that Meandre was showing improvement at home otherwise he wouldn't have supplemented him. The race was run at a genuine pace and I think that Seville ran solid fractions. He didn't slow appreciably in the last quarter and I would say he would go further. He doesn't have a turn of foot similar to the winner's who put up a good performance. Reliable Man ran below his best (as well as being given an over-confident ride)and as his trainer said, he may want cut in the ground judging by his action. Another example of a horse running well on ground once that is too fast (Chantilly) but not repeating the exercise.

It's far too early to say that the 3yr olds are below par. Fabre has a strong hand for the Arc now with his  3 yr old colts.

Sandown
It's not really an example of that, though, is it? There is no proof. At the moment it's just a trainers excuse, which are often as bad as punters' excuses, although with trainers it's usually the ground rather than the jockey.

Figgis

Hard to say definitively whether the ground or the ride was the main reason for RM's below-par run or it could be that he is just not as good as the winner. RM was only just behind the winner throughout and they were let down at the same time but Meandre showed a bit more pace. There's a point about a furlong out where M seemed to gain a length. The winner has a low action unlike RM and the latter may show better form in the autumn. We shall see. But the winner shouldn't be under-estimated.

Sandown
My view is that although RM's win in the PDJC was a good performance, because of the hard fought style it was achieved in there was always a chance he might not be able to do it again, or at least, not do it again so soon. Likewise with the winner yesterday, it appeared easy in the end, but obviously wasn't when viewing the whole race. He will be rested though now so yes he's in the mix for the Arc, but he's not one I'd be rushing to back.

Who said anything about the last furlong?

At what point in the race were they tiring then?

I was very taken with Seville yesterday. He appears to be getting better and did absolutley nothing wrong yesterday, he just got beaten by an improver from Andre Fabre.

I suspect they will now give him a short break and go for the Voltiguer (5 weeks), or give him a longer break and head straight for the St Leger just like they did with Scorpion.

Seville is now Fav for the St Ledger on here..

The point was obviously (or at least I thought it was obvious) in relation between whether the winner quickened impressively or he just stayed on better past horses that were more tired. Technically all the horses were tiring to some degree, but I don't really see that as having any relevance.

I didn't bring up the issue of tiring.

The only horse who passed the O'B horses was the winner - despite him racing ahead of all the others who made little or no impression. I would say that the race was run at an even pace and the form is solid. Winner clearly the best horse in the race by some way - though how good he is relative to the older ones we'll have to wait and see.

A_T Joined: 27 Jan 06
Replies: 2376 14 Jul 11 22:37   
Would be a surprise if the O'Brien horses weren't tiring because that's what always happens in the last furlong of a horse race
The only horse who passed the O'B horses was the winner

Reliable Man also passed TB and the others just weren't good enough. The winner was under pressure from some way out and made no impression on the front 2 in the hottest part of the race, until they started to tire. No argument that the form is solid and he was obviously the best horse in the race, whether it's the kind of performance that would easily be repeated I have my doubts.

I have the sectionals for this race and 000's of others and i would say that Seville was not tiring in the sense that he was running rapidly out of steam and I would be confident that this horse might well improve for another couple of furlongs.

In most races above 8f the fastest part of the race is usually the 3rd last furlong gardually slowing over the next 2.However, this depends on the course and the overall pace of the race as well as the distance.

This race was run at a strong even pace and the form should be relaible.

Sandown
I agree about Seville and another couple of furlongs, I didn't mean he was running out of stamina. He's been running well without seriously improving on his 2yo form, but I reckon he could possibly find that improvement at any time. I still think that Meandre was not having any impact on the front 2 when the runners were all seriously asked a question, there are a few other horses around that wouldn't have made such hard work of it.

there are a few other horses around that wouldn't have made such hard work of it

Amongst 3 year old colts only Pour Moi

made such hard work of it

Did he? Really?

Yes A_T, I agree with that. I also don't think it should be taken as a given that Pour Moi will still be in the same form in October, he ended up having a very hard race in the Derby and even a break might not see him in the same form.

jair1970 Joined: 16 Nov 06
Replies: 832 15 Jul 11 16:25   
made such hard work of it

Did he? Really?

Depends if you're watching the whole race or just the last few yards.

Meandre would have been even more impressive if he'd settled early instead of pulling hard. Wait til he gets a really fast pace to run at, rather than last night's even pace. Seville, as Sadnwon says, set a sensible gallop and stayed on well. Treasure Beach was probably a bit over the top, while Reliable Man ran to form (the French Derby wasn't a stellar renewal and last night is as good as he is). There is no form line I can see that makes Pour Moi a better horse than Meandre. Obviously they could both improve and, given their trainer, they probably both will. But the discrepancy in price is silly.

I wouldn't be worried about any of the older horses in the Arc - a good 3YO beats a good 4YO in that race, and there don't seem to be any really good older horses likely to line up in this year's race.

I watched the whole race by the way and at no point did I think Meandre wouldn't win.

a good 3YO beats a good 4YO in that race

I always find comments like that strangely simplistic, surely it depends on just how good the 3 or 4yo is and their preparation for the race?

I watched the whole race by the way and at no point did I think Meandre wouldn't win

Your in running race reading skills are much better than mine then (not difficult) so I trust you cleaned up i/r? [;)]

No, though I'd backed him before the race (sorry to aftertime) and I'm a very pessimistic watcher of horses I've backed. Yesterday was unusually relaxing, however.

here don't seem to be any really good older horses likely to line up in this year's race

Isn't the opposite true?

Going back to Rail Link's Arc, the common perception was that Deep Impact was a class above but that lb differential is massive.
15/20 have gone to 3yos.

Basically, you've got top class 3yos against top class 4yos and the 8lb is a massive difference.

Two 130 horses running up against each other, you're gonna favour the one getting the weight aren't you.

(Not to say Meandre is a 130 horse or Pour Moi for that matter, but they could be)

FWIW i'd be interested in Fabre's comments re: Meandre's future.  Seeing as he appears to be giving Pour Moi the Arc prep, where's he gonna fit Meandre in? I imagine the Coolmore spin machine prompted his comments in the wake of Epsom.

Sankara
Date Joined: 18 Sep 10
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I watched the whole race by the way and at no point did I think Meandre wouldn't win.

I find that very hard to believe to be honest. At one stage it looked like Seville was going to win a bit easy.

It's about perspective, Sint.

I watched it and watched Meandre the whole race, the camera angle was useless and I couldn't even see Seville when he went on, he disappeared off ther left of the screen!  Meandre was always well positioned, looked comfortable and when pooped the question, started to make up ground.  Perfectly feasible for a Meandre backer to have felt that their horse was always doing what he needed to IMHO

Basically, you've got top class 3yos against top class 4yos and the 8lb is a massive difference.

Two 130 horses running up against each other, you're gonna favour the one getting the weight aren't you


They are not getting anything they are not entitled to, to make it a contest of speed rather than strength (weight carrying) in which the older horse would have an unfair advantage. WFA = Level Weights , unless you think the scale is all wrong, which is another argument.

I don't get why anyone is holding out much hope for the 3YO Colts being a good bunch, and certainly not why they might think that Meandre or any of them , might turn out to be worthy of a 130 rating (as Workforce and So You Think are).

Typically the best 3YO Colt middle distance colt in Europe, in an average year, would merit something like 126-127, with maybe another 3 or 4 behind him on 120+.

What we have seen so far is a pool of 8-10 horses , with 4 or 5 of them competing every few weeks, and never much more than 2 or 3 lenghts between 1st and 4th, and finishing in a different order each time. That suggests to me we either have maybe 10 of them that are near 125 or else none of them are really much better than Group 2 standard, with maybe 122/123 being the best of them. A lot of them have also been running pretty regualry without much progression so you wouldn't think there would be much more to come from most.

3YO s that do end up rated 130 odd have by mid July usually done something pretty spectacular, at least visually , if not in concrete form line terms. All the Derbies have mostly been about dourly staying on, and yesterday Meandre did not display instant acceleration (though impressive final furlong) .

I suppose Meandre has shown a big improvement and may find more,  Pour Moi himself didn't get the best run of the race at Epsom and might be capable of beating those horses easier next time ridden closer, and Nathaniel ran to a mark of about 122 at Ascot without exerting himself much. They may all improve quite a bit , but they will need to, and i would want a big price to be backing any 3YO for an all age  G1.

Even in the Arc?

Surely the fine record of 3yos in the race tells you that the weight difference at that time of year is at least generous?

3YO s that do end up rated 130 odd have by mid July

Nearly never happens whatever has gone before.  Rightly or wrongly ratings makers usually seem to like a season's worth of form to dole out a high rating for a horse; indeed only 'freak' runs seem to pique the raters into hyperbole (ie. Frankel and Harbinger)

Regarding the Arc, recently it has become a showcase for horses with preeminent form:

2010:  No horse in the race could have matched Workforce's Derby demolition for wow factor
2009:  Sea the Stars spends the year doing things only a Champion can do and sure enough proves it
2008:  Zarkava arrives unbeaten and impressive all year
2007:  Dylan Thomas backs up a highly impressive 4l King George win

Before that Rail Link and Hurrican Run backed up good wins in The GPDe Paris and Irish Derby, Bago again the GPDeParis, Dalakhani the Jockey Club.

Realistically, classic winners do well in the race and impressive classic winners do best (FWIW I class the GP de Paris as equivalent to a classic)

Meaning, Pour Moi and Meandre deserve utmost respect.

If pushed, I'd say the visually impressive, Dancing Brave-esque late run of Pour Moi give him the WOW! edge but am concerned about him going right handed.  Meandre got a great ride the other day but will probably need fast ground.  They are both highly worth contenders, despite the amount of high class older horses about this year (Rewilding, Sarafina, Workforce, maybe St Nicholas Abbey and the Japanese horses.)

You've gotta love the Arc

Tobermory, don't forget the filly [;)]

Golden Lilac? a contender maybe but i was just thinking of the colts this year with the above post.

Jair, Realistically, classic winners do well in the race and impressive classic winners do best (FWIW I class the GP de Paris as equivalent to a classic)

Yes , but i don't think any of this years bunch have been impressive (compared to those you mention)

As i said i consider the Arc to be a level weights race and the 3YO simply have to be better than the older horse to win it , if they are not better racehorses (faster basically) then the weight they 'receive' does not help as all it does is offset the strength advantage of the older horses.

The 3YOs that have won it have either been exceptionally good (Sea The Stars, Dalakhani ,Lammtara, Dancing Brave,Suave Dancer) or else they have not been up against a strong group of older horses . I doubt there is any real superstar of any age around at middle distance this season, but i still think this year's 3YO are well behind the level of Workforce/So You Think . Await The Dawn and Sarafina seem  to have more potential for improvement than most of the 3YOs IMO as they have acheived similar marks this season seemingly without the effort required by the horses that ran in The Derbies.

I may be wrong of course . At this time of the year i not have rated Lammtara or Sinndar much above 120 tbh But i think generally a 3YO that will be exceptional will by this time of the year already have proved himself something special as most of those i mention above had.

jair1970: FWIW I class the GP de Paris as equivalent to a classic

According to Wikipedia so do the French!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Classic_Races

Heard a commentary on the race and commentator said that in final 3 furlongs reliable man was about fifteen lengths behind Treasure beach and Seville in fourth place, was this true and did reliable make up a lot of ground in final furlong?

RM made up a fair bit of ground on the Irish pair - but he raced 2 lengths behind Meandre who was going away from RM at the end. In short Meandre was much more impressive.

I thought Seville was the one to take from the race tbh. Definitely going in the right direction ...

Meandre is the one to take from the race, backed up by a decent topspeed to boot.

Thanks, A-T.