the irish oaks 17th july

I expect both Wonder Of Wonders & Blue Bunting to reverse the form with Dancing Rain.Hard not to see Blue Bunting finish in the 1st 3 at the very least.Banimpour has improved out of all recognition & really travels sweetly through her races.Won inspite of the ground at Ascot,which shows what a trier she is too.Cant see Misty For Me turning up here,think they are gonna stick to 1m or 1m 2f races.I expect Wonder Of Wonders to kick 1st this time,but if Frankie is close enough this time,I think he will beat her.

WOW for me, although wont be backing her at 7/4, awful price imo and it is a bit similar to the Carlton House situation whereby he finished behind the 2nd horse but had been put in as favourite.

I think WOW should be fav but no way she should be 7/4.

* I think WOW should win but no way should she be 7/4.

i ve narrowed it down to 5 horses,cant see any of the others having a chance,the 5 are in noparticular order

1)kissable
2)theyskens theory
3)crysanthanum
4)elas diamond
5)together


add between 10 and 20 lbs to all these,they re all pertfectively bred for the trip and all have never been close to running at the trip,together looks interesting - everyones given up on him now - he hasnt done bad at wrong trip,if he improves as he should ,that would make him one of the best oaks winners for years.

what will the long term for blue bunting? leger maybe?

I've learnt my lesson before in this type of race and wouldn't look beyond the AOB horses.
I'm sure the form book , race times, sectional times and form lines give the others a strong chance of
winning - but when AOB runs his horses in these type of races they nearly always win and he fills the
places as well.

no not a stayer just gets trip,its beat together and elas diamond at 8f,one thing for certain is they will both finish infront of blue bunting,


together could really be a freak based on form ,but surely he wouldnt of ran it so many times if it was special ,so unsure about it.

kissable looks the potential star ,top class at 7f ,yet related to st leger winner,its got the biggest jump in distance which will suit it the most,and all its relatives are top class g1 winners.

looking at your 5 comingupthehill,i would say that you have been at those funny pills again

they re not funny pills,they re from nasa,brain pills,clarity,and spilt second calculation,please discuss any weaknesses of the five,and i will explain where you are reading the form wrong

KISSABLE: Just below top class last year, but up in trip may find the improvement needed. However, this is a tough ask first time out.

THEYSKENS THEORY: Very disappointing at Royal Ascot and personally I couldn't back her after that. She did beat Blue Bunting easily in a maiden this time last year, but are we sure the step up to a stiff 12 furlons will suit?

CHRYSANTHEMUM: Must admit I like this filly and think she has a big run in her. The step up in trip should suit her, having stayed on well in the Irish 1000.

ELAS DIAMOND: Beaten by Blue Bunting at 2 but that form reads well now. However, as with Kissable, this is a big ask first time out.

TOGETHER: Surely a doubtful stayer giving the pace she has shown over a mile. Stable vibes have been that she will stay over a mile.


Regarding all five of your selections, 'comingupthehill', not one is quoted with any of the bookmakers pricing up the race. This in itself indicates the likelihood of any of them even running.

I could be wrong.

would agree,but betfair aint got a market up - so nothing to follow or compete with,so if i was a bookie - i d price up the top 8 most popular horses and subtly leave out the ones i thought had a chance,have you noticed together is SP,yet take any price aidens others,they can manipulate/trick/baffle you with bull because theres no guide market on betfair.

theyskens will stay,dad won 11f mum 10f,it not only beat bunting(it harmerd it 5l),but i like the fact it went to bbreeders cup,clearly its in the top 5%class wise,add in the better ground,and the distance,its my wild card,my guts are saying ,theres something about her thats stopping me crossing her off,

as for ascot ,high heart rate ,but straight mile ,it likes a bend,its 3 best runs where all  bends,and the breeders cup

kissable just under top class - alright frankels figures are better,but it ran irish guineas winner to a length in g1,with it finishing the better,same in g3 ,it is 6th top rated ,and 6th top speed,is 6th best just under top class or is she bang in there,remember the top 6 have all revealed their hands - they ve run over 12 f - this as yet to.

Is Elas Diamond even in training right now?

RP TTF said not yesterday.

Why exactly is Dancing Rain 4/1? It beat Wonder of Wonders very straightforwardly last time and stayed well albeit off a slow pace.

Dancing Rain's a big enough price alright. I'm going to find it hard to desert the teak tough Banimpire after her Ascot heroics

Wonder of Wonders really is quite short. Is Misty for me being underestimated again??

MFM is not running

1)kissable NON RUNNER
2)theyskens theory NON RUNNER
3)crysanthanum POSSIBLE RUNNER
4)elas diamond NON RUNNER
5)together NON RUNNER

thats the reason you have been at the funny pills comingupthehill,cause probably non of your selections will be running

Kissable is not even in training.

1  Amazing Beauty(96) (APO'Brien) 9,00
2  Banimpire(110) (JSBolger) 9,00
3  Blue Bunting (USA) (MAZarooni (in GB)) 9,00
4  Chrysanthemum(104) (DWachman) 9,00
5  Dancing Rain (WHaggas (in GB)) 9,00
6  Gemstone(98) (APO'Brien) 9,00
7  Hurricane Havoc(97) (JSBolger) 9,00
8  Laughing Lashes (USA)(111)(MrsJHarrington) 9,00
9  Make My Heart Sing(90) (APO'Brien) 9,00
10 Misty For Me(120) (APO'Brien) 9,00
11 Rumh (GER) (SBSuroor (in GB)) 9,00
12 Why(94) (APO'Brien)  9,00
13 Wonder Of Wonders (USA)(111) (APO'Brien) 9,00
14 Zain Al Boldan (GB) (MChannon (in GB))  9,00

1  Amazing Beauty(96) (APO'Brien) 9,00
2  Banimpire(110) (JSBolger) 9,00
3  Blue Bunting (USA) (MAZarooni (in GB)) 9,00
4  Chrysanthemum(104) (DWachman) 9,00
5  Dancing Rain (WHaggas (in GB)) 9,00
6  Gemstone(98) (APO'Brien) 9,00
7  Hurricane Havoc(97) (JSBolger) 9,00
8  Laughing Lashes (USA)(111)(MrsJHarrington) 9,00
9  Make My Heart Sing(90) (APO'Brien) 9,00
10 Misty For Me(120) (APO'Brien) 9,00
11 Rumh (GER) (SBSuroor (in GB)) 9,00
12 Why(94) (APO'Brien)  9,00
13 Wonder Of Wonders (USA)(111) (APO'Brien) 9,00
14 Zain Al Boldan (GB) (MChannon (in GB))  9,00

1  Amazing Beauty(96) (APO'Brien) 9,00
2  Banimpire(110) (JSBolger) 9,00
3  Blue Bunting (USA) (MAZarooni (in GB)) 9,00
4  Chrysanthemum(104) (DWachman) 9,00
5  Dancing Rain (WHaggas (in GB)) 9,00
6  Gemstone(98) (APO'Brien) 9,00
7  Hurricane Havoc(97) (JSBolger) 9,00
8  Laughing Lashes (USA)(111)(MrsJHarrington) 9,00
9  Make My Heart Sing(90) (APO'Brien) 9,00
10 Misty For Me(120) (APO'Brien) 9,00
11 Rumh (GER) (SBSuroor (in GB)) 9,00
12 Why(94) (APO'Brien)  9,00
13 Wonder Of Wonders (USA)(111) (APO'Brien) 9,00
14 Zain Al Boldan (GB) (MChannon (in GB))  9,00

Anybody think Blue Bunting is the one?

Has a solid chance for sure, shouldn't be out the frame imo.

WOW 10/11 

No bet race for me at this stage until the ground is known

Well I was big on Wonder of Wonders before the Epsom race and still cannot believe she didn't go past the winner.

So why is she odds on?

Dancing Rain beats her again for me and i'd be more concerned about Banimpire to spoil the party.
Laughing Lashes and moreso, Chrysanthemum are both interesting runners but i'm forming an opinion that both trainers may have a little to learn about winning Clasics, and I don't mean that as undue criticism...

I can't have Blue Bunting and I can't really say why, beyond the fact that I think the Epsom front two were and are better than the rest of their field.

I'm very sweet on Laughing Lashes for this race. Last year, Harrington must have rated LL to pitch her straight into a group 3 race as a maiden--staying on strongly into second against Together. LL then reversed the form with that same horse in the next race, the group 2 Debutant Stakes, also beating subsequent triple group 1 winner Misty for Me in the process.

Her breeding doesn't suggest she'll get the Oaks trip, being by US sire Mr Greely; but the way she stayed on last time in the Irish 1000 Guineas, making up late ground to be beaten less than 2 lengths, I am trusting my eye as opposd to the breeding book. She flashes her tail whenever she's hit with the whip, but that hasn't stopped her winning in the past. I think what has stopped her is her size. She's a monster, and Harrington has always said she needs time to fill out, and will be only seen at her best as a 3 year old. I like the fact Harrngton put her away for a couple of months after the Irish Guineas, allowing the filly more time to develop. At the start of the season, her jockey, FM Berry, went on record as saying this was the horse more than any other he was looking forward to riding--and that included Pathfork, Harrington's second favourite for the 2000 Gunieas.

For anyone going in heavy on one of the fancied runners in tommorrow's big race, you might want to consider having a "saver" on LL. You don't need much on with Laddies offering a stand-out 16/1.

J.D. Salinger - let's hope the won't 'catch her if they try'.

Jair I agree she had every chance to get past but for me WOWs best attribute is stamina. Her pedigree has plenty of stamina in it so I suspect/hope a stronger pace and a more galloping track will see her win but i'd not touch her at the prices.

Jess Harrington was interviewed early season and said she was confident of LL getting 12f, Fwiw.

Blue Bunting has the beating of these on her Guineas form and she is guaranteed to be better over 12 furlongs. Must have each way bet

BB a great ew bet imo. She will have been most inconvenienced by the steady gallop at epsom. I was on WOW in the oaks and was disappointed she didnt go past. Cant have DR at all.

going now Yielding, and more rain expected overnight.

Wonder Of Wonders is a terrible price and must be taken on.  If the ground were riding on the fast side I would side with Blue Bunting, who was never given the opportunity to show her class at Epsom.  But Dancing Rain will love the yielding ground - she's by Danehill Dancer and most of her family goes well on yielding ground - and she is selected to confirm the Oaks form.  The slow pace at Epsom certainly caused several runners to underperform, but it's quite possible that Dancing Rain, who has done nothing but improve all season, will also benefit from a true gallop.  Wonder Of Wonders had every chance to get past her at Epsom but Dancing Rain kept pulling out extra.

1)dancing rain
2)wonder o w
3)laughing lashes

small saver
laugh
dance
wonder

James, what do you make of the ground for WOW ? She is by a Sadlers Wells mare which is a good sign but I wasn;t sure about the sire Kingmambo ?

WOW debuted on yielding ground and was a close up 2nd.

going back through all of them- very few if any can handle soft,half cant get 1m4f- i keep being drawn to gemstone

sint, I can't see any reason why WOW won't handle the yielding ground.  Most of Kingmambo's progeny out of Sadler's Wells mares have handled soft ground without any problems (a possible notable exception being Henrythenavigator).  Kingmambo himself seemed to act on any ground and his offspring (taken as a whole) don't appear to have any marked ground preferences.  WOW's dam All Too Beautiful acted well on soft ground, as did the dam's full brothers Galileo and Black Sam Bellamy.

Gemstone eh

I was just reading the Timeform summary/tip on ATR and they say surely Wonder of Wonders and Blue Bunting will beat Dancing Rain this time.

Granted a false pace can produce some funny results but Wonder of Wonders, who had every chance, was never at any stage traveling as well as Dancing Rain who won, to be honest; with a bit in hand.

Dancing Rain made all at Epsom and AOB will be out to ensure she doesn't again but William Haggas nor Johhny Murtaugh are fools. They will be happy to let her settle behind the leaders and do her own thing and not get into a fight for the lead.

I can see absolutely no reason why Wonder of Wonders should reverse placing and hr price is surely more down to who trains her than what she possesses in ability.

Blue Bunting is a different ball game. She hit a flat spot when Dancing Rain suddenly quickened going downhill. She looked all at sea but did once she got her balance she ran on really well. I suppose she could reverse placing with the first two but there not enough evidence to say yay or nay to that one.

I'll stick with Dancing Rain and hope Frankie isn't doing a flying dismount after the race

ron - epsom down hill easy ,curragh harder plus soft ground - real stayers test today,given half are first time at dist half first time soft going,its not going to go to plan,

well nearly not

this will be the tricast

1)wonder
2)banimpire
3)rumh

saver with bunting as 3rd

i actually think d rain wont stay,it fluked epsom ,and it wont act on going,it could well finish last,and thats not a joke,all the outsiders will relish conditions.

Oh no sportinglife have the ground as good to firm. I had a million quid on a fast actioned horse on their going description. Whatever shall i do ?

Dancing Rain will have no trouble handling the yielding ground.

I know Godolphin have been mob handed in lots of races this year, like Coolmore gang really, but what is Rumh doing in there with Pat Smullen up? So many variables, shape of race is hard to predict. Sentimentally, would love to see Sheikh Mo stuff Magnier and Tabor at home -- so would he, and Al Zarooni is talking tough.

rumh was fav at ascot to beat banimpore

50/1 Rumh is ridiculous imo

whats better a listed race at newbury or chester,rumh won its listed race by 6l wonder was 2l,it will defo turn the tables on dancing rain,rain wont stay 1 4 ,just got 1 2 with rumh breathing done its neck ,add in soft ground

i ll get this  tricast ,

all change again

1)wonder
2)rumh
3)blue bunting

Completely ignoring Royal Ascot, I'd make Rumh a 12/1 shot.  Whether the Ascot run should be ignored is the question, but at 50/1 I think it probably should be.  Just hope her natural urge to lead isn't compromised by the Ballydoyle duo....could be quite a gallop on if they all hook up, which would suit Blue Bunting and Banimpire maybe? A few judges thought WOW looked a bit soft at Epsom and I'm inclined to agree.  Don't know if a proper tear-up would be in her favour?

I can't possibly have Rumh.  Her jockey reported that she didn't handle the soft ground at Ascot.

Going by what RP has, RUmh is a pacemaker. Agree, Leonfranco got off and said she didnt hanlle good to soft. AOB's other two runners have better place prospects imo.

they ll say anything straight after a defeat,i bet hes never looked up the horses form or breeding,

plus if you select your horses based on what jockeys said .

onwards and upwards

4.20 exodus g1 horse to guide the woman home

4.50 cheviot just not last home 6f

5.20 shela house - job horse

415 sol;ar spirit

WOW everychance before finishing 3rd.

Banimpire very game and tought.

BB showed a nice turn of foot at the finish, 10/1 quotes for the Leger dont seem to silly.

Dancing Rain stole the Epsom Oaks.

Pleasing.

wd dan,figgis,sultan.

A particularly good performance from the winner, considering her connections believe that she's best on faster ground - she proved that her performance at Epsom was all wrong.  Hard to know what to make of Dancing Rain's performance - she handled the soft surface, she travelled well enough, but didn't find a huge amount (allowed to coast the final 75 yards when beaten).  Maybe she didn't quite get this stiffer 12f in the soft ground.  It will be interesting to hear what the connections have to say.

One thing they won't say, "She was not quite good enough and tbh we pinched the Oaks thanks to a great ride from Jonny"

Aye. Twas a great ride though.

apparently Ryan Moore reported that WOW did not like the ground, fwiw.

Think LL would have won but for the dropping of the whip

Banipire was an unlucky loser. She refused to let wonder of wonders and laughing lashes go past her and probably didn't see Blue bunting out wide, if she had she'd have fended her off as well.