Summer National - Uttoxeter Sun

Trends for the past 10 years of Sunday's Summer National below, though it should be noted the distance of the race was changed from 4M ½F to 3M 4F in 2009:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-3
6yo: 2-0-8
7yo: 2-3-20
8yo: 3-5-27
9yo: 1-3-31
10yo: 1-8-30
11yo+: 0-6-30
Horses aged 5 to 8: 8-8-57
Horses aged 9+: 2-17-91
Younger horses clearly hold the call with 5 to 8 year olds winning 8 of the last 10 from less than 40% of the total runners.

Breeding
French bred: 5-1-24
Irish bred: 3-15-88
British bred: 2-8-33
USA bred: 0-1-3
German bred: 0-0-1
French bred horses have won 5 of the last 10 (including 3 of the last 4) and have only accounted for 16.1% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 8-13-76
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 2-12-73
Horses carrying higher weights have held the call in this lately with 8 of the last 9 winners carrying 10-9 or more
Top Weight: P5P16U5BPPP (1-0-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 5-3-33
Horses rated 120 to 129: 3-15-68
Horses rated 119 or lower: 2-7-48
No massive trends on official rating but 5 of 10 winners were officially rated 130 or higher and they represented just 22.2% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last NH start
5 of 10 winners ran at Stratford or Newton Abbot last time out
8 of 10 winners won on 1 of their last 2 NH starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had won over 2M5F/6F)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher
5 of 10 winners were course winners (4 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on 2 of 3 runs here)
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 chase or hurdle last time out

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Ouzbeck): 0 (0-0-1)
Record of horses placed the previous year: 32472U4 (0-4-7)
Stratford Millennium Rose Bowl winner (Estates Recovery): 1P1 (2-0-3)
Durham National winner (Simply Dashing):1 (1-0-1)
Crabbie's Handicap Chase winner (Parc Na Gcappall): 82 (0-1-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 4P
2 of 10 winners ran in Stratford Millennium Rose Bowl, finishing 11

Trainers
Emma Lavelle (2-0-4) has won the last 2 runnings, both run over the new trip of 3M 4F.
Peter Bowen (2-2-17) has trained the winner twice in the past decade (2004 & 2006).
Chris Bealby (1-0-1) has saddled just one runner in the race, Surface To Air, which won this in 2008.
Nick Williams (0-2-4), Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-8) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-11) have each filled a couple of places while Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-1) saw his only runner in the past 10 years finish 2nd in 2010.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-8) have filled 2 places from 8 representatives.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 14/1
Rheindross’ win at 25/1 in 2005 has been the only big shock in this race in the past decade, the majority of the winners came from the first 5 or 6 in the market.
Favourites (1-2-14) have a poor record in this, with just one winner (a joint favourite in 2007) and show a level stakes loss of 7.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 5 to 8
•    French bred
•    Carrying 10-9 or more
•    Officially rated 130 or higher
•    Had last run in a class 3 race in the past 55 days
•    Finished in the first 4 in last NH start
•    Won 1 of last 2 starts
•    Run in 8 or less handicap chases (winning 3 or less)
•    Won over 3M+
•    Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher
•    Course winner or having first course start
•    Trained by Peter Bowen or Emma Lavelle
•    Priced 5/1 to 14/1