Await The Dawn - Arc de Triomph

still 33's!

didnt last long!

Got lucky Alainmaar picked up an injury imo

going for the BC classic.

Alainmaar would have picked him up and carried him. masheen

Liked this performance - loped along like an old wolfhound it was that relaxed. Don't think the ground suited it either.

Nice horse and travelled very well - clearly the ground made it look hard work at the finish, but don't see that bare form being anywhere near good enough to win an Arc. Would like to see him in the King George / Juddmonte etc on better ground before I considered backing him for the Arc.

He is sure to be a big Arc player, taking that race en route to the Breeders Cup.

i hope you're right but i think they might just concentrate on the BC.

The Hardwicke didn't advance his case for the Arc one iota. All it showed was that he isn't at his best on soft. He slowed considerably in the last 2f. His case rests still on his Chester win. There are still a lot of other top contenders - that now includes F&G - for that race. If the BC is his main target its not certaain that the Arc wouldbe taken in en route, but that said he is a contender, i agree, although i wouldn't be as bullish as COT.

His chance of winning the Arc would depend on the ground as he cant quicken on Soft against G1 horses imo. I doubt very much he'll even run in the race.

Lets not forget this horse has not tried G1 company yet and I suspect they will aim him either for the King Goerge or one of the 10f races on Good ground.

The ARC?? and then the Breeders Cup???.. Lads are yee mad. They cant run everything in the Arc. Pour Moi has the best chance of all the Coolmore horse's. Breeders Cup Classic on Dirt it the holy grail for Magnier he do everything he can to get it.

Pour Moi appeared from the interview with Barzalona on telly today to be aimed at Arc and who wouold not take it very seriously indeed. Myself I have always thought filly/mares do well in it and I would like to see Midday have a go

The Breeders Cup Turf is his target not the Classic.

The brilliant Zarkava is the only filly to win it in recent years and surely Midday is best at 10f.

"When Ryan rode him at Chester he loved him. Obviously we're always dreaming of going for the Breeders' Cup Classic but it's a long way away. The dream is still alive at the moment."

Rishi Persad kinda put words in his mouth imo. He said to Aidan we have heard a rumour about the breeders cup classic, insteand he should have not pre-empted anything and jsut asked what his next target was.

I dont believe it myself just like I dont believe F&G will now be trained for the Arc.

cant see why they would bother running fame and glory in the arc again. he hasn't shown he is a better horse than he was last year, so for me its a pointless exercise. agree with sint cant see him runnong

and i cant see them running await the dawn now either. 7 of the last 10 runnings had soft in the going description and await the dawn was not at his best on that going yesterday. he has a very low action so the quicker the going the better. 

i think they are very keen to try and win the classic.  and if they are thinking of sending this son of giants causeway then the arc wouldn't be a good prep in my opinion.

Coolmore and the Arc

Pour Moi - rated about 122 and has to improve by at least 10 lbs to be competitive with a horse like Workforce
So You Think - a very good horse who might stay well enough but they seem keen on 10 furlongs or even shorter.
St Nicholas Abbey - a possible but the problem here is whether he is actually really good enough for an Arc
Fame And Glory - proven to be too slow even last year with an "ideal" prep and softish going
Await The Dawn - now a proven stayer on a stiff track and on soft going. Almost certainly good enough, having now won 2 group 3's (both by miles) and a pretty easy winner of a Group 2 in soft ground which he is probably not much good on comparatively. Clearly the senisible choice if they think the Arc is worth winning.

The Arc would seem to rest between  Await The Dawn, Sarafina and Workforce at the moment,

i think youre trying to convince yourself COT!
SNA will be at the arc long before ATD.

It is what you call ramping/pocket talk Moyesy!

Pour Moi looks the stand out for the Arc - he's way better then anything else out there - much better than the bare form of the Derby. In the race he came from a Dancing Brave position but actually won. Incredible never seen that before in the Derby.

SNA unlikely to run over anything below 12f so you'd have to think the Arc will be on the agenda, as it will be for POUR MOI after his summer break. Not sure they know what they want to do with SYT yet, but if he does go to the Arc as well & FnG too, there's likely to be 5+ Coolmore runners with a pacemaker also involved! Not the usual scenario, with them keen to promote their Gp1 winners as all winners you wouldn't have thought they'd want them to take each other on & 3 of them to be beaten....

ATD looks taylormade for the BC Classic at this stage.

Fame and Glory will surely go for the Cadran

The Arc would seem to rest between  Await The Dawn, Sarafina and Workforce at the moment,

Number of G1's won by Workforce, Sarafina, F&G, SNA, SYT, Golden Lilac totals 20

Number of G1's won by ATD so far 0

COT's glasses are not just rose-tinted - they're opaque! When, and if, ATD shows a level of form good enough to win (and a G3 at Chester and a slow G2 at Ascot doen't) then he might, just might, be considered to have an outside chance in the Arc - should he even run which is odds against at least given stated preferred options. So why the hype COT?

Sandown

Do you have the Hardwicke as slow? I made it a decent time for the conditions, not quite a group 1 time but a solid group 2 rating, only 5lbs worse than Rewilding in the POW. I have him on a better time at Chester, it may have only been a group 3 but the time was as good as many group 1s. Not that I fancy him for the Arc myself.

Figgis

ATD came home in 28 secs off a slowish pace - no way that was G1 form. He is better on fast ground for sure. The Chester win is not good enough to win an Arc. This horse is in danger of being over-rated and over -hyped. Perhaps 10f on dirt will bring out the best in him.

Sandown, don't you think Arcs vary in quality? Taking nothing away from Workforce, who for me put up a better performance in the Derby, but last year's Arc was hardly top class on the day, with many of the runners performing below their best. The Arc field that Zarkava beat wasn't brilliant either and much as I rated Sea The Stars highly, the Arc opposition was one of his easiest tasks all year.

I think the big problem with ATD is it sounds like he's just not going to be campaigned for the race. Having the right campaign is usually essential for the Arc, which is why so many English and Irish runners under perform on the day. STS was exceptional and Workforce's interrupted season probably helped him remain relatively fresh. I think the fact that Youmzain (admirable horse that he was) managed to finish 2nd in 3 consecutive Arcs proves that, the winner aside, it doesn't always turn out to be the hot race it looks on paper. I know there's an argument that Youmzain was a proper group 1 horse but just difficult to win with but imo he was a solid group 2 horse that always ran his race in the Arc, wheres much of the main opposition didn't.

As for COT, I think he's just looking for a trade as he's backed ATD at a big price.

AWDs first crack at a G1 will either be the King Goerge back at Ascot or a drop back to 10f on decent ground, imo.

figgis you are just so cynical - what a thing to say about an old friend.

Await The Dawn has been crashing down to as low as 14/1 for the Arc with some bookies and although that might have squeezed the value out of him for now, he is till a fair price elsewhere.

I am not looking for a trade but looking to help people into a financially wonderful position.

In the end I suspect Coolmore will realise that The Arc is the real target, not some desperate contest across the pond where most of the filed have been given eye popping drugs and then belt round a dog track kicking up terrible muck in eachothers' faces!