Looking ahead to the forthcoming Group 1 races, we've recently had the forfeits for both the Fillies' Mile (23 Sept) and the Cheveley Park Stakes (24 Sept).

The Gr.1 Fillies' Mile tends to be won by a lightly raced filly (18 winners in the last 20 years had had a maximum of three previous races) with prior pattern race experience (16 winners in the same period had already won or been placed in a race that now carries at least Group 3 status, the other four had all won a maiden at a Grade 1 course with a Racing Post Rating of at least 92).  The Gr.2 May Hill Stakes is the key trial, having produced no fewer than 10 winners of the Fillies' Mile in the last 20 years (if one includes Midnight Air, disqualified after finishing first in 1991), including the last three - Rainbow View, Hibaayeb and White Moonstone.  The Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes is another important trial race, having produced three winners of the Fillies' Mile in the last nine years.  The race has not produced a single winner of the 1000 Guineas since Sleepytime (1997) and Bosra Sham (1996), but takes on added significance this year as it is being run over the same course and distance as the Guineas.  27 fillies remain from the original 83 entries.  The only ones to consider are Discourse, Fallen For You, Maybe, Regal Realm, Samitar and Yellow Rosebud.  The lightly raced pair Discourse (impressive winner of the Sweet Solera Stakes) and Fallen For You (close second to Discourse's stablemate Lyric Of Light in the May Hill Stakes) have the strongest claims.  Guineas favourite Maybe is reportedly more likely to go for the Prix Marcel Boussac.  Samitar and Regal Realm were both well beaten by Fallen For You in the May Hill and there is no obvious reason why they should reverse the form.  Yellow Rosebud, runner-up to Maybe in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes, would be a very interesting contender, but I have no idea whether she is likely to make the journey over from Ireland.  At this stage this looks to be a match between Discourse and Fallen For You: the former just gets the nod due to the fact that her trainer has an excellent line to the My Hill form.

The Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes is usually won by a smart filly that has already proven herself in pattern company (18 of the last 20 winners of the race had already won or been placed in a race that now carries at least Group 3 status or had won a race that now carries Listed status, the only exceptions being nursery winner Magical Romance and maiden winner Regal Rose; all 20 winners bar Magical Romance had achieved a Racing Post Rating of at least 100).  The race has produced six winners of the 1000 Guineas in the last 20 years, though it's worth noting that three of those (Harayir, Cape Verdi and Russian Rhythm) were beaten in the Cheveley Park.  The Gr.2 Lowther Stakes is a key trial race, having produced eight winners of the Cheveley Park in the last 20 years.  25 fillies remain from the original 58 entries.  The only ones to consider are Best Terms, Fire Lily, Gamilati, Sajwah, Samitar and Shumoos.  Shumoos and Gamilati finished 10th and 11th behind Best Terms in the Lowther and appear to face a huge task trying to reverse the form, but there is no doubt that the state of the ground played a huge part at York and it would be unwise to take the form at face value.  Shumoos has bounced back to win the Gr.3 Sirenia Stakes and on her earlier Queen Mary Stakes form (where she finished a short head behind Best Terms) she would have every chance, but on the balance of her form she has a bit to find.  Gamilati beat Shumoos and Sajwah in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes and cannot be ruled out with any confidence, even though no filly has finished worse than fourth last time out before going on to win the Cheveley Park (in the last 20 years).  The Dick Poole Stakes (Listed) at Salisbury has produced two winners of the Cheveley Park in the last 20 years, but this year's winner Sajwah, who is held by Gamilati and Samitar on earlier form, has a lot to prove in this company.  Samitar looked an excellent prospect when she won the Gr.3 Albany Stakes earlier in the season, but was stepped up to a mile last time (where she performed with credit) and must be a doubtful participant.  This just leaves the Lowther winner Best Terms and runner-up Fire Lily.  There's no getting away from the fact that Best Terms beat Fire Lily fair and square at York (and was giving her three pounds into the bargain) and it would be hard to say that Fire Lily didn't handle the ground, as she pulled well clear of the third.  Best Terms is much the likeliest winner of the Cheveley Park, but at this time of year form often gets overturned and it wouldn't surprise me if Fire Lily, who ran really well behind Maybe in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last time (finishing three lengths clear of the Phoenix Stakes winner La Collina), reversed the form.

As far as the Guineas market is concerned, I remain very keen on both Maybe and Discourse.  It might be worth topping up stakes on Fallen For You (at around 20/1) ahead of the Fillies' Mile, though she's weak on Betfair (last matched at 24) so perhaps all is not well with her.  I don't especially fancy either Best Terms or Fire Lily for the Guineas at this stage, but will probably have a saver on Best Terms at around 16/1 (just in case she routs her field in the Cheveley Park).

Unfortunately Discourse has met with a minor but unspecified setback and has been withdrawn from next Friday's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile.  In her place Godolphin have supplemented the May Hill Stakes winner Lyric Of Light, who looks set to renew rivalry with the Doncaster runner-up Fallen For You.  The May Hill third Samitar has also been left in the race at today's confirmation stage, but Regal Realm and Yellow Rosebud have been taken out.  Aidan O'Brien has left in Maybe, Devotion and the promising maiden Wading.

Roger Varian seems to have had a change of heart concerning Firdaws: after her maiden win at Salisbury, where she shaped as though she would need middle distances next year, her trainer seemed less than enthusiastic about the prospect of running her in the Fillies' Mile and was talking about running her in a Listed race instead.  Sheikh Hamdan is clearly keen to run her at Newmarket, but I think the trainer should have stuck to his original plan, as she doesn't look ready (judging from her Salisbury performance) for this leap into Group 1 company.

Kunooz, Kinetica, Salford Art, Semayyel and Wahylah don't look up to winning in Group 1 grade, while Albamara, Swingland and Villeneuve are making a huge jump from maiden company.  Assuming that Maybe skips this in favour of the Prix Marcel Boussac, I make it a straightforward match (or rematch) between Lyric Of Light and Fallen For You.  Gosden's filly seems to have more scope for improvement than the Godolphin filly, so I marginally favour Fallen For You.  Most interesting of the unexposed entries is Wading.

I'd fancy Fallen For You to get revenge on Lyric.

James .. good evening to you.

Has the great Henry got anything useful well bred on the girlie front or unraced entered up that you think could be useful? He used to prep some of the (his) best at Leicester or Yarmouth late on. When I was a lad those were the days. Remember Lady Carla doing the clock at Leicester back end and I was on at 33/1 for the Oaks. Great days. PS He is my hero.

I'm a Maybe man myself at 10/1 for the 1000 gns. Oi Oi.

Thanks James. I'm hoping Maybe isn't an Alharath because I was on that at 33/1.

I can't believe there will be a brass farthing for Discourse at 8/1 for the Guineas following her setback.
In my experience, once horses become injured, it's a slippery slope from which they never recover both from a physical point of view and also missing out on valuable fitness and training. ( Lemon Souffle is one example off the top of my head to my cost )
She should have been shunted out in the betting to reflect this. Would you take 8/1 about an injured Group 3 winner from a stable with an abundance of juvenile talent ?

Godolphin have been unusually unforthcoming regarding her setback. If it's enough to keep her off the track for the remainder of this season then 8/1 is a joke. After the Fillies Mile, Cheveley Park and Marcel Boussac have been run, presumably without her, she must be a 14/1 poke at least.

Anyone who is cycnical like me will be praying the the 'bone issue' keeps her off the plane to uae a la blue bunting. Perhaps M.A.Z realises a false injury claim is his only chance of getting her to hq in good shape on guineas day, 8-1 still poor value tho.

The history of the mile classics is peppered with instances of a minor setback injecting unwelcome panic into the build-up of a leading fancy, but occasionally the horses still manage to win...

In 1987 Don't Forget Me spread a plate and suffered a bruised foot on the journey to Newmarket for the 2,000 Guineas.  During treatment he had a jacuzzi boot fitted to the off-fore foot and his participation was in doubt.  Richard Hannon told jockey Willie Carson that if the colt gave him any cause for concern he was to pull him up, but he overcame the setback to win.

Nine years later Henry Cecil faced a race against time with Bosra Sham, who had bruised her foot ten days before the 1,000 Guineas.  The problem was still causing concern right up to the race, which she won at 10-11 under Pat Eddery.

Sir Michael Stoute's Russian Rhythm's participation in the 1,000 Guineas of 2003 was uncertain up to the race, leading to widespread pessimism over her chances before she won at 12-1 (having been as short as 5/2 in the weeks leading up to the race)...

The 'setback' suffered by Discourse is reportedly so minor that they're still hoping she will have another race this year (presumably in the Rockfel Stakes), but if she's not 100% ready for that she will be put away for the winter.  The Guineas is so far off that I'm not in the least bothered by this setback.  Mahmood Al Zarooni has a powerful team of juvenile fillies so if Discourse is the best of them (as is widely believed) he will certainly want to get her to the Guineas.

Alsindi was very impressive on Debut.

starting to think best terms is a shoo-in james. have backed her after laying her intially, have taken a loss.

agree that the fillies mile is a coin-toss. as fallen for you is probably the more stoutly bred of the two she should relish the stiff finish at newmarket, but I wouldn't be surprised if lyric of light just travels the better of the two and might have that more pace at the finish.

hard to see the winner coming from outside those two, although they did have a hard race there at donny and that was only two weeks ago. firdaws is also interesting.

she looks like she'll be doing all her best work at the finish. whether she'll have the gears to go with them when the quicken is questionable, although clearly she's going to be suited by the stiff mile and the likely fast pace of the race.

Two interesting races today.

Quite fancy Desert Gazelle in the Oh So Sharp despite Frankie not choosing her. Everything went wrong for her last time, missed the break, the ground had cut in it and having been switched wide she was on the unfavourable part of the course (there was a golden strip of ground up the rail) and I immediately put a line through that run. At 8/1 I'm willing to give her a another go.

The Fillies mIle looks a greta race and I jsut don't fancy Lyric Of Light and have place layed her at 1.35.

I think it's between Fallen For You and the Prescott filly Albamara, with Firdaws filing the frame.

The ground would have to be a big concern James - I probably didn't factor that in enough when analysing it. Looks like I'll be all-in on Fallen  For You now

On reflection I'd still give Albamara a chance on faster ground (Galileo is not a negative in that context), though I agree good or softer would be preferable.

Fallen For You's pedigree doesn't scream 'classic winner' at me, and as I can't bring myself to like Lyric Of Light (have no justifiable reason for that) so overall maybe Firdaws for the place at 4/5 is a safer option?

i'm no expert, can somebody tell me whats' not to like about Lyric of Lights progress. if Fallen For You was supposed to be the real deal then Lyric must be a fair filly. i think it is right up there with the best. cheers.

One good paddock judge who was at Doncaster was convinced that Fallen For You would progress past Lyric Of Light next time.  Gosden's filly has greater physical scope for improvement and was still very green at Doncaster.  It doesn't always work out like that though..

The fast going and the bias towards front runners is making it difficult to judge these trials.

I think the two winners, Alsindi and Lyric Of Light deserve credit for coming from quite a way back but overall the form and the proximity of exposed horses means I'd be very disappointed if we saw a 1,000 Guineas winner today.

Presumably Robinson was jocked off Albindi today for Queally.

Clive Brittain said the owner jocked Robinson off Albindi.

Tucho
23 Sep 11 13:03
what do you think of shumoos tomorrow james? hasn't had good to firm ground since her impressive debut, is that the key?
Well, you can forget her performance at York (where she hated the ground and ran too freely), she's better judged on her short head second to Best Terms at Royal Ascot (where she looked the better long-term prospect of the pair).  She bounced back to form last time in the Sirenia Stakes and the faster ground should definitely suit her.  She's been working nicely and connections are hopeful that she will finish in the first three tomorrow.  She needs to improve to win, but she's definitely got the class (as she showed on debut) and is not without a chance.