northumberland plate 25th june

deauville flyer for me.ran well enough in same race last year and given terrible ride lto-would like to see fallon up.

phew, nice to see overturn n/r today, keep him freash for ext saturday. if he ran today would have left his race there for the plate.

weather forecast poor up to wednesday, looks like lot of rain.

Yuk MM, that place takes a while to dry out as well, really would like Mount Athos on g/f ground as well. theyve a fresh strip of ground open thats not been used since april and if fastish i was hoping to see "The Golden Highway" appearing on friday night

tactician for me all day . deauville flyer sure to run a big race

weather looks brighter towards end of week

Trends for the past 10 years seem to favour lower weights with proven stamina that like to race prominently:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-3
4yo: 3-13-65
5yo: 0-5-44
6yo: 4-7-39
7yo+: 2-5-36
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-19-112
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-12-75
Older horses have held the edge recent with horses aged 6+ winning 5 of the last 7.

Weights
Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-61
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-19-126
9 of 10 winners (last 8) carried 8-11 or less
Horses carrying a penalty: 82840300805 (0-3-11)
Top weight: 00000000030 (0-1-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-14-70
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-98
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-2-19
The last 8 winners were officially rated 85 to 93

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
4 of 10 winners had their last start in a hurdles race
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times (flat & jumps) that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 1M 6F+
8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3 or 4
7 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Overturn): 708 (0-0-3)
Braveheart Handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 4 (0-1-1)
Tentofollow Handicap winner (Montaff): 30 (0-1-2)
Ascot Stakes winner (Swingkeel): 288 (0-1-3)
Chester Cup winner (Overturn): 98300 (0-1-5)
Eddie Stobart Stakes winner (Yorgunnabelucky): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25
4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap hurdle last time out, finishing 

Trainers
George Moore (1-2-3) and Paul Cole (1-2-6) have both gained 1 win and 2 places in the past 10 years.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-7), Donald McCain (1-0-1), Mick Channon (1-0-1) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race since 2001.
Alan Swinbank (0-3-4) and Richard Fahey (0-2-6) have both saddled multiple places in the last 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win & 1 place from just 6 representatives.
Trainers who have not done so well include Mark Johnston (0-0-10), Tim Easterby (0-0-6) and Brian Ellison (0-1-9).

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-18-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-6-47
Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.
On good or softer:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-11-54
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 1-7-60
On good to firm or firm ground:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 0-8-36
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-5-37

Racing Style
7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently in first 7
The last 2 winners both made all to win, the 3 winners who were held up did so on soft ground.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or higher
No major trend on the prices though longer priced horses have tended to do well recently with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 6+
•    Carrying 8-11 or less
•    Officially rated 85 to 93
•    Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
•    Ran in Ascot Stakes or in a handicap hurdle last time
•    Ran in last 55 days
•    Ran 2 to 6 times in 2011
•    Won over 1M 6F+
•    Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer
•    Trained by George Moore, Paul Cole or Alan Swinbank
•    Tends to race prominently
•    Priced 12/1 or higher

on a slightly different note, roker park and horatio carter both down to run next saturday ( they both won at meeting 2 years ago ) . one for the mackems.

Thanks for the analysis Racecaller08, makes interesting reading. I've backed 2 in the race.

Mount Athos ran an eye-catching race in the Chester Cup from a coffin draw, 10/1 was better than I expected to get. 1pt win @ 10/1.

Deauville Flyer also ran an eye-catching race behind Activate, hampered & stayed on well in a slow-run affair. Looks sure to run well. 0.5pt win @ 14/1.

Good luck.

rained all night and most of the morning.some quite heavy.

Deauville Flyer my main bet at 14s to make up for last year's disappointment. Won't mind soft going.

At a bigger price Montaff makes some appeal. Even though Holberg and Blue Bajan did nothing for the Sandown form at Ascot his other efforts this year (other than at Chester) suggest he should be a fair bit shorter than 33/1.

Overturn is such a class act.

But if Junior lines up as well they won't do each other any favours up front.

could be a few fancied ones doubtful if there is heavy rain, Overturn, Junior, Mount Athos


Hunterview makes some appeal to a mischevious mind

I'm with Deauville Flyer 14/1 - found plenty of trouble last time behid Activate and 7lb better off - was favourite last year and found trouble early, closest at the finish, now 9lb better off with Overturn (who may get pestered up front this time) - I would prefer Fallon to Winston on top - a thorough stayer who wont mind softer ground - his main problem is a lack of tactical pace so if he finds trouble it always takes some time to get going again - if he gets a clear run up the long Newcastle straight he must go very close

also like deauville flyer and hoping it gets a run i fancy cotillion from the ian williams yard 19lb better in with activate for a 1l beating at yarmouth last september(winner won easy i know).will love ground and trip heres hoping on at 44s

does Hunterview have any chance of running?

So do we think it will be good to soft on Saturday? If so I really like one but needs quite a few to come out, how many normally drop out for this? Seems a lot that would get into the race only ran a few days ago so hopefully will drop out and many of the fancied runners want decent ground so hoping they aren't declared and then made non runners.

According to the beeb site there is heavy rain around the area on Thurs and Sat

i wouldnt be betting Overturn, Tactician,Mount Athos or Junior pre rule 4

First post guys but Activate been backed from 8/1 to 6/1 today. Connections really fancy this!!

more overnight showers. . not looking good for overturn backers imo ( i include myself here ) . sunny now though . hopefully continues. get better idea tomorrow  when meeting starts.

Is Deaville Flyer well handicapped ? Has won off 65,69,80 and 84. Is now 3lb lower,93, than when beaten 5th in this last year ..

I guess we know he will get the trip, and has won on heavy ground so that is a plus.

There is likely to be some non-runners here with the ground conditions so probably best to wait and see what the final decs are imo.

According to the beebs f/c they will get heavy rain on sat, risky market to play in(unless you guess right)

like Petara Bay,myself.Ran in some good races in the past
and made a nice reappearance at Goodwood when 4th.Hopefully
weight carried may not matter as should be a compressed h'cap.
@40s on here,worth a bet.
   GL ALL

I've backed Activate at 7/1 . He looks progressive and likes cut in the ground plus has decent weight 9-0.
I'll probably have a bet on MOunt AThos also but he's entered at the curragh as well so will see where he is
declared. Overturn looks to have too much weight, 9-10, on the likely softish ground.

zilzal - the forecast from what I can see is that it will rain tomorrow then some decent / dry weather Friday & Saturday...

Am I right in thinking the course does not dry too quickly?

I have had a speculative bet on Hunterview but as i asked earlier I don't know if he is expected to line up and cannot find any quotes from Pipe.

doesnt dry quickly hammer, especially bottom bend. like a marsh at times.

more overnight rain . activate getting well backed now .

whats the max field mackem? was 19 runners last year.

I've read somewhere that Mccain thinks the track could do with some rain, think they'll only run if confident it's decent enough so i'll be backing once it's nrnb

Does anyone know when the draw is?

Market closes for final decs 10am today, draw made then.

Favourite drawn high in stall 18

Better make that Ante post fav.

New fav Overturn drawn 2 @11/2, ground ??

Do you have a link for the draw?

Lot of mention of Activate and Deauville Flyer in here.

Yes Activate is progressive but this is the most valuable hcp and going back to 1983 and the ten 4yo's that won the Plate - just one run in current year may not be enough.

Deaville Flyer - just two winners at age of 5 (Nmkt trained) in last 28 years

http://www.timeform.com/free/

Many thanks.

Good luck.

on RP site now


http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?crs_id=37&r_date=2011-06-25

BTW Overturn will be a shocking price, too much weight on (by then) very soft ground

mount athos and fox hunt not declared.

cotillion not declared so rely on deauville flyer and high office at 90s !!!!

Activate drawn 18 is a big disadvantage and he's going to need a lot of luck or I've blown my money.
If the ground dries out its difficult to discount Overturn he seems to make a habit of winning and has
the best of the draw.

The ground is going to make all the difference imo, will be watching tomorrows night card with interest

if it does come up soft id be looking at English Summer and La Vecchia Sciola at bigger prices

my arch anyone?

had a hard race last sunday 19.

my arch meets a lot of trends, just think the race will be a trends buster this year with so many 100+ rated horses in the race

to tell the truth mm i thought he won a tad cosily in the end.the quick reappearence is my big doubt.

Now the f/c seems to be saying not much rain thinks its best left until the day and watch the early races tbh

19 yip ,probably right.

anyhoo, couple of heavy showers last night , now nice sunny day ,forecast good . overturn backers do not despair .

we wont

Tominator isn't out of it. Hasn't won over the distance but ran a promising race over 14f at Newmarket and last time out at Haydock staying on very well at the end over 12f. Appears reasonably handicapped compared to some of the other horses and has a top notch calimer on board. Can race to the fore and price of 50/1+ takes account of any negatives.

A few pennies on Prospect Wells at 48's. Thats me lot!

What are peoples thoughts about investissment??

Oh well at least my friend Tom agrees!

Get in my son!

wp

MFA
wd

Thank you guys

wd atlantis

Top tip MFA

Well done MFA .

cap doffed, well done fella.