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DANCING RAIN SHOULD BE OAKS FAVOURITE
The clock says that the Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial at Newbury was that rarest of races; a Classic trial with two genuinely top class horses.
Nowadays there are so many Classic trials that most don't attract any proper Group 1 horses, and when they do it's just the one. But this race was an exception.
I concede I reached this conclusion with some difficulty due to the huge rail movements made at Newbury. They reportedly added 32 metres to the distance of races run around the turn.
Unfortunately this does not seem to be correct as it suggests the Fillies Trial was a significantly slower race than the mile and a half handicap won by Peintre D'Argent.
In fact the first ten furlongs of the handicap was run two seconds slower than the ten furlongs of the Fillies Trial and the last ten furlongs 3.4 seconds slower despite the slow early pace of the Listed race.
There are two ways I can see to fairly adjust for the slow early pace in the Fillies Trial to figure out the true merit of the race. The first is to use my sectional timing formula to factor in the speed they went over the last three furlongs. The second is to take those times from the ten furlong starter's stand at face value, taking off 1.7 seconds from the time of the handicap in both cases to adjust for the longer distance. The second approach makes the assumption that the effects of tiring over the last two furlongs in the handicap cancels out the effects of the slow early pace in the Fillies Trial. Experience tells me that my sectional timing formula produces a more reliable answer. But in this instance they both give the same big rating of 39.
The sectional times demonstrate the remarkable phenomena I've noted before of how top class horses can recover from a slow early pace to clock a decent final time. They covered the first half of the race 1.5 seconds slower than they did in the handicap but proceeded to go 4.8 seconds faster over the final five furlongs.
DANCING RAIN (39) wasted some energy by pulling hard against the slow early pace but looked sure to win when taking the lead approaching the two furlong marker. But she was somewhat marooned out in the centre of the course and understandably drifted right towards the stands side running rail. This allowed IZZI TOP (39) to go on after she'd quickened up to challenge. Dancing Rain picked up and closed the gap when she straightened up in the last hundred yards but was still a head shy of success at the line.
Both fillies were traveling really strongly crossing the line, and it was impressive how they rapidly opened up a three length gap on their rivals as they dueled through the final furlong
I suggested after her last run that Dancing Rain was the one to beat in the Oaks. And until this race no Oaks candidate had bettered the rating of 38 I awarded her that day. Now she's gone and run a bit faster.
Dancing Rain runs like she'll adapt to Epsom and stay the mile and a half of the Oaks, so she's an obvious candidate for Epsom.
Izzi Top is a little more problematic as trainer John Gosden says she didn't handle the dip at Newmarket on her previous start which raises clear doubts about the steep gradients at Epsom. In addition she looks a pacier sort than Dancing Rain. The fact that she's still in the Coronation Stakes over a mile suggests her connections have doubts about her going longer.
My feeling is that ten furlongs is Izzi Top's best distance. And her owner agrees. He said after the race "we're not sure she'll stay one mile four furlongs so it's doubtful she'll go for the Oaks."
This leaves Dancing Rain as the Oaks candidate to take from the race. She's now earned the two top speed ratings I've given all the Oaks entrants. So I think the general 25-1 you can get about her for the Oaks is plain crazy. As I see it she should be favourite.
The clock says that the Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial at Newbury was that rarest of races; a Classic trial with two genuinely top class horses.
Nowadays there are so many Classic trials that most don't attract any proper Group 1 horses, and when they do it's just the one. But this race was an exception.
I concede I reached this conclusion with some difficulty due to the huge rail movements made at Newbury. They reportedly added 32 metres to the distance of races run around the turn.
Unfortunately this does not seem to be correct as it suggests the Fillies Trial was a significantly slower race than the mile and a half handicap won by Peintre D'Argent.
In fact the first ten furlongs of the handicap was run two seconds slower than the ten furlongs of the Fillies Trial and the last ten furlongs 3.4 seconds slower despite the slow early pace of the Listed race.
There are two ways I can see to fairly adjust for the slow early pace in the Fillies Trial to figure out the true merit of the race. The first is to use my sectional timing formula to factor in the speed they went over the last three furlongs. The second is to take those times from the ten furlong starter's stand at face value, taking off 1.7 seconds from the time of the handicap in both cases to adjust for the longer distance. The second approach makes the assumption that the effects of tiring over the last two furlongs in the handicap cancels out the effects of the slow early pace in the Fillies Trial. Experience tells me that my sectional timing formula produces a more reliable answer. But in this instance they both give the same big rating of 39.
The sectional times demonstrate the remarkable phenomena I've noted before of how top class horses can recover from a slow early pace to clock a decent final time. They covered the first half of the race 1.5 seconds slower than they did in the handicap but proceeded to go 4.8 seconds faster over the final five furlongs.
DANCING RAIN (39) wasted some energy by pulling hard against the slow early pace but looked sure to win when taking the lead approaching the two furlong marker. But she was somewhat marooned out in the centre of the course and understandably drifted right towards the stands side running rail. This allowed IZZI TOP (39) to go on after she'd quickened up to challenge. Dancing Rain picked up and closed the gap when she straightened up in the last hundred yards but was still a head shy of success at the line.
Both fillies were traveling really strongly crossing the line, and it was impressive how they rapidly opened up a three length gap on their rivals as they dueled through the final furlong
I suggested after her last run that Dancing Rain was the one to beat in the Oaks. And until this race no Oaks candidate had bettered the rating of 38 I awarded her that day. Now she's gone and run a bit faster.
Dancing Rain runs like she'll adapt to Epsom and stay the mile and a half of the Oaks, so she's an obvious candidate for Epsom.
Izzi Top is a little more problematic as trainer John Gosden says she didn't handle the dip at Newmarket on her previous start which raises clear doubts about the steep gradients at Epsom. In addition she looks a pacier sort than Dancing Rain. The fact that she's still in the Coronation Stakes over a mile suggests her connections have doubts about her going longer.
My feeling is that ten furlongs is Izzi Top's best distance. And her owner agrees. He said after the race "we're not sure she'll stay one mile four furlongs so it's doubtful she'll go for the Oaks."
This leaves Dancing Rain as the Oaks candidate to take from the race. She's now earned the two top speed ratings I've given all the Oaks entrants. So I think the general 25-1 you can get about her for the Oaks is plain crazy. As I see it she should be favourite.
lol and how many others did he give a good mention to ?
he didn't say any of the others should be favourite, if that's what you're asking
did tip this up in the weekender as well. does make great calls like at cheltenham two years ago. his tip for the derby? recital.
Well cone,Nick.
Does he still think the 2009 Dante was the best Derby trial for 15years ?
Does he still think the 2009 Dante was the best Derby trial for 15years ?
We all make good calls every now and then, I backed Urban Sea at 66/1 for the Arc and nobody pinned a medal on my chest, nor did I want one!.
didn't he also say Frankel was over-rated and wouldn't win the 2,000 Guineas?
He said Frankel was a sprinter.
Mind you he also said he might win a G1 over 10f. Nothing like covering your @rse.
Mind you he also said he might win a G1 over 10f. Nothing like covering your @rse.
Frankel is a sprinter he sprinted for an entire mile in the Guineas
Mordin reminds me of the boy who cried wolf. When a real wolf comes around no one listens.
Good luck to anyone who took his advice the man was spot on this time
Mordin reminds me of the boy who cried wolf. When a real wolf comes around no one listens.
Good luck to anyone who took his advice the man was spot on this time
I buy the Weekender every week for his article. And I have cut out and kept many of his articles since the 1990s. Did I back Dancing Rain? No.
Absolute gold, well done Nick I love it when a plan comes together. It's funny whenever I have a winner on one of his big fancies I'm the only one cheering in the betting shop. Did the same with Look Here in the Oaks a couple of years ago. Dancing Rain paid for my Derby weekend and some funds for Royal Ascot. Bring on Nathaniel in the King Ed 7th!
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