mordin on carlton house.

Nick Moron

Has he wised up to Big Buck's yet or does he still claim that Tidal Bay is a better 3 mile hurdler?

I agree mythical, but have always believed that seville was the coolmore number one.

DANCING RAIN SHOULD BE OAKS FAVOURITE

The clock says that the Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial at Newbury was that rarest of races; a Classic trial with two genuinely top class horses.

Nowadays there are so many Classic trials that most don't attract any proper Group 1 horses, and when they do it's just the one. But this race was an exception.

I concede I reached this conclusion with some difficulty due to the huge rail movements made at Newbury. They reportedly added 32 metres to the distance of races run around the turn.

Unfortunately this does not seem to be correct as it suggests the Fillies Trial was a significantly slower race than the mile and a half handicap won by Peintre D'Argent.

In fact the first ten furlongs of the handicap was run two seconds slower than the ten furlongs of the Fillies Trial and the last ten furlongs 3.4 seconds slower despite the slow early pace of the Listed race.

There are two ways I can see to fairly adjust for the slow early pace in the Fillies Trial to figure out the true merit of the race. The first is to use my sectional timing formula to factor in the speed they went over the last three furlongs. The second is to take those times from the ten furlong starter's stand at face value, taking off 1.7 seconds from the time of the handicap in both cases to adjust for the longer distance. The second approach makes the assumption that the effects of tiring over the last two furlongs in the handicap cancels out the effects of the slow early pace in the Fillies Trial. Experience tells me that my sectional timing formula produces a more reliable answer. But in this instance they both give the same big rating of 39.

The sectional times demonstrate the remarkable phenomena I've noted before of how top class horses can recover from a slow early pace to clock a decent final time. They covered the first half of the race 1.5 seconds slower than they did in the handicap but proceeded to go 4.8 seconds faster over the final five furlongs.

DANCING RAIN (39) wasted some energy by pulling hard against the slow early pace but looked sure to win when taking the lead approaching the two furlong marker. But she was somewhat marooned out in the centre of the course and understandably drifted right towards the stands side running rail. This allowed IZZI TOP (39) to go on after she'd quickened up to challenge. Dancing Rain picked up and closed the gap when she straightened up in the last hundred yards but was still a head shy of success at the line.

Both fillies were traveling really strongly crossing the line, and it was impressive how they rapidly opened up a three length gap on their rivals as they dueled through the final furlong

I suggested after her last run that Dancing Rain was the one to beat in the Oaks. And until this race no Oaks candidate had bettered the rating of 38 I awarded her that day. Now she's gone and run a bit faster.

Dancing Rain runs like she'll adapt to Epsom and stay the mile and a half of the Oaks, so she's an obvious candidate for Epsom.

Izzi Top is a little more problematic as trainer John Gosden says she didn't handle the dip at Newmarket on her previous start which raises clear doubts about the steep gradients at Epsom. In addition she looks a pacier sort than Dancing Rain. The fact that she's still in the Coronation Stakes over a mile suggests her connections have doubts about her going longer.

My feeling is that ten furlongs is Izzi Top's best distance. And her owner agrees. He said after the race "we're not sure she'll stay one mile four furlongs so it's doubtful she'll go for the Oaks."

This leaves Dancing Rain as the Oaks candidate to take from the race. She's now earned the two top speed ratings I've given all the Oaks entrants. So I think the general 25-1 you can get about her for the Oaks is plain crazy. As I see it she should be favourite.

credit where it's due.

annoying that I backed that filly after reading that article but for some stupid reason layed it off.

not slagging off mordin at all, I often follow his tips, just curious as to why recital gets such a high speed rating from him when he seemed to run the final two furlongs so slowly? probably I need to be a little bit less lazy in future and try and produce my own speed ratings.

Can't argue about that

wd Nick

search for the article on CH's uneven body. probably the only person in the media to have spotted it.

The Carlton House stuff was obviously rubbish as was his idea that Recital had more of a chance because he behaved like a hound.

However lets be fair; his Dancing Rain stuff was amazing at the time, well from left field and well before it was backed by anyone else.

Maybe that's the trick with Mordin. Take the interesting stuff and ignore the tripe.

only prob with that COT its not until after the event you know whats interesting & whats tripe

Well I reckon you can tell.

When Nick Mordin appears to fancy a horse or seems to want to denigrate a horse, he then looks for left field stats to justify his views.

When he finds a really interesting theories and the stats to back them up he then applies them to future races and comes up with an option or two.

Recital was one of the former. Dancing Rain was one of the latter.

Simples. (If only......)

actually one of his better systems tends to be applied to the coventry, something like narrow the field down to runners who have recorded at least a 90 rpr in their first two runs, nearly always throws up the winner.

Yes Mythical,  that is the sort of thing I mean.

Its not going to be always successful, but I recall looking at research that showed very few horses manage a rating of over 90 first time out - actually very few manage over 100 and they are really interesting. I suspect Workforce ran an amazing rating when he started and another huge rating was won by a big black brute called Chief Singer some years ago.

So Mordin's Coventry Stakes analysis would be of serious interest. He sort of answers how on earth you begin to solve the puzzle of a lack of any collateral form. I used to be dead keen on speed figures for a race like this and for fast 2yo's I still think they are handy. But a form rating of over 90 first time out is a super class indicator.

We'll see soon whether it works this year anyhow.

Yes Mythical,  that is the sort of thing I mean.

Its not going to be always successful, but I recall looking at research that showed very few horses manage a rating of over 90 first time out - actually very few manage over 100 and they are really interesting. I suspect Workforce ran an amazing rating when he started and another huge rating was won by a big black brute called Chief Singer some years ago.

So Mordin's Coventry Stakes analysis would be of serious interest. He sort of answers how on earth you begin to solve the puzzle of a lack of any collateral form. I used to be dead keen on speed figures for a race like this and for fast 2yo's I still think they are handy. But a form rating of over 90 first time out is a super class indicator.

We'll see soon whether it works this year anyhow.

Third placed CARLTON HOUSE (40) was given a good ride by Ryan Moore. Kept wide with three behind him early on he largely avoided the traffic problems that so often beset runners in the Derby. Yes he met a couple of minor incidents but they cost him little if any ground. He made a strong run up the straight but it flattened out a furlong and a half from the finish and he made no further progress.

Carlton House is less mature than most three year olds. He has not strengthened up properly over the withers. This gives him a somewhat odd appearance when running that makes it look like his front legs are shorter than his back ones. Go to a stud farm and you’ll see this with yearlings. For some reason horses back ends grow earlier than their front ends. Seeing that he was born on April 30th Carlton House’s lack of maturity is not surprising.

In my experience horses don’t grow anything like as much when you race them as when you rest them. So if he were mine I’d be resting Carlton House until the Autumn. If he’s kept on the go my bet is his lack of strength will see his run flatten out late just as it did here.

This was a big step forward by Carlton House on his Dante win. But if he is to win a Group 1 I reckon he will need to have time off to strengthen up and mature.

What about the Dubai World Cup with this chap one day? Sheikh Mo would love it