Horse Antepost
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The Derby Market says its a one horse race: Is it?
The Derby Market says its a one horse race: Is it?
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this morning
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Totally agree. The betting is simply wrong. I have topped up at 7/1 on Pour Moi this morning following confirmation from Fabre that he will be running. He will surely be much shorter than 7/1 on the day. Personally, I would make him favourite ahead of Carlton House.
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I am genuinely amazed at the price of Carlton House. It should be a 3/1 the field race.
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Kieran Fallon took helocopter from HQ to partner Native Khan in workout. Currently circling paddock - workout 7.45am1 minute agovia Mobile Web
posted by Matt Doyle on twitter Recital off to France maybe??  |
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That thought entered my head as I read O'Brien's comment on the RP website too.
But it would be a Ballydoyle first sending their Derrinstown winner to France. |
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With Pour Moi a confirmed runner for Montjeu it would seem to me that would make Recital the most likely to head to France. Can't have Roderic O'Conner as a likely winner at all so Seville would have to be the one running for Galileo.
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so why not send roderic to france? recital absolutely desperate for 12 furlongs imo, and there's so much more to come from him
seriously the last month has been ridiculous, how can they not know the plans yet? i know coolmore doesn't 'owe' us any explanations, but a little more information would have been nice, biggest race of the year and nobody dares have a bet on it yet |
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"I am genuinely amazed at the price of Carlton House. It should be a 3/1 the field race."
Yeah, that sounds about right. The horse is priced up as if he won a guineas like Frankel. In fact i remember Frankel was a better price for the derby 'with a run'. Sea the Stars was 11/4 after winning a guineas. The market is being suffocated. |
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Day of the race prices, although more realistic than they were on May 17, still have as the main feature the short price of CH ( CH 3.5, the next 3 between 6.6 and 7.6 (little surprised at PM's weakness?) and NK at 12.0.
First point to make is that AP prices offered little in the way of value at the time considering the risk of not running. No doubt that the general public will come for CH at these prices but I am impressed by the degree of confidence behind CH with a number of heavy bets from pro's reflecting the gallop reports and I expect his price to shorten in to around 3.0 . That is quite a lot less than you would expect for a horse with his form so it is all done to potential. I am not concerned about the last minute scare as these things have occured many times in the past. The great Vincent O'brien overcame many such episodes. I hope to see the finish fought out between PM and CH with PM being my main winner. |