Horse Antepost
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When Deep Impact was backed down to long odds on on the PM by its fanatical Japanese supporters for the Arc, we saw the victory of sentiment over reason. Are we about to see the same thing again?
Carlton House won the best trial for the Derby albeit in one of the poorest final times seen for a long time. Trained by a master, however,it will undoubtedly improve again and 12f should be within its compass. I've no problem with it being at the head of the market.
But currently best priced at present at 7/4 with 3 weeks to go and with the prospect of it shortening further as a result of it being owned by the Queen, the bookmakers obviously anticipate it being even shorter. No doubt that on the day, layers will want to get it however and there will be some lively trading.
Just how defensive is the current price. It beat Seville by 1.5 l and that horse is priced at more than 3 times CH at 9.0. It too can be expected to improve, was not given a hard race and in my book has a chance of reversing the form with a stronger pace over further. In a match the current prices would make CH 1.3 and S 4.3. That is too much imo. 1.5 vs 3.0 or even 1.7 vs 2.4 wouldn't be crazy.
Then there's Recital. Again, in a match, CH would be 1.3 and R 4.3. I didn't like his head carriage and I'm not knocked out by the time but Fallon was impressed. Again, the current difference in price is loaded too much towards CH imo.
Pour Moi is not yet a certain runner so that has to be factored in and he is in the same ownership as S and R so perhaps all 3 may not run. There again, given Coolmore's well known view of the importance of the Derby to their breeding interests, they might well run all 3. If so, this horse has shown a top class turn of foot in winning his trial and could be anything.
Native Khan ran a good trial in the 2000 gns has a rating of 112 and could show improved form also.
All The current RPR's are S 119, CH 118, R 118 and PM 114. Not much in it. CH has the lowest rating on speed by far.
Then there are the unknowns. There is always the possibility of something showing vastly improved form when presented with a fast pace and 12f for the first time.
Putting all this together I would say that the betting should be closer to CH 4.0, R,S,PM 7.0, NK 10.0 20.0 bar
Feel free to disagree.
Carlton House won the best trial for the Derby albeit in one of the poorest final times seen for a long time. Trained by a master, however,it will undoubtedly improve again and 12f should be within its compass. I've no problem with it being at the head of the market.
But currently best priced at present at 7/4 with 3 weeks to go and with the prospect of it shortening further as a result of it being owned by the Queen, the bookmakers obviously anticipate it being even shorter. No doubt that on the day, layers will want to get it however and there will be some lively trading.
Just how defensive is the current price. It beat Seville by 1.5 l and that horse is priced at more than 3 times CH at 9.0. It too can be expected to improve, was not given a hard race and in my book has a chance of reversing the form with a stronger pace over further. In a match the current prices would make CH 1.3 and S 4.3. That is too much imo. 1.5 vs 3.0 or even 1.7 vs 2.4 wouldn't be crazy.
Then there's Recital. Again, in a match, CH would be 1.3 and R 4.3. I didn't like his head carriage and I'm not knocked out by the time but Fallon was impressed. Again, the current difference in price is loaded too much towards CH imo.
Pour Moi is not yet a certain runner so that has to be factored in and he is in the same ownership as S and R so perhaps all 3 may not run. There again, given Coolmore's well known view of the importance of the Derby to their breeding interests, they might well run all 3. If so, this horse has shown a top class turn of foot in winning his trial and could be anything.
Native Khan ran a good trial in the 2000 gns has a rating of 112 and could show improved form also.
All The current RPR's are S 119, CH 118, R 118 and PM 114. Not much in it. CH has the lowest rating on speed by far.
Then there are the unknowns. There is always the possibility of something showing vastly improved form when presented with a fast pace and 12f for the first time.
Putting all this together I would say that the betting should be closer to CH 4.0, R,S,PM 7.0, NK 10.0 20.0 bar
Feel free to disagree.
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IMO it's between those horses, which isn't rocket science as they head the market.
And I don't much care for Pour Moi (doesn't look to have been specifically targeted at race) or Seville (don't believe O'Brien uses Dante as trial for best hope) Went through a few stats earlier and was surprised at the lack of experience at 3 and at a trip most winners have these days. Since Kris Kin you've had 4 winners come from making ther seasonal debut in the Dante (1112) and 3 come from the Guineas (221). Every single one of these horses had had one run prior to Epsom that year. Much as I am reluctant to admit it, Carlton House is a clear leader on profile as his matches superbly with not just the recent Stoute winners but obviously Authorised and Motivator. Workforce was only a slight bend of that angle (1 run at 2 not 2 runs, beaten in Dante) otherwise you've got the last 5/8 Derby winners remarkably similar pre-Epsom record. Only real negative is that time figure and maybe an appetite for the distance. Only the race itself will tell if he has sufficient class to counter seeming deficiencies in his breeding... The Guineas angle brings in Native Khan as anything that bombed out there has killed it's Derby profile in one fell swoop. His profile is excellent when compared to Sir Percy, New Approach and Sea the Stars. He's obviously not a Sea the Stars but in a weak renewal he might just be a Sir Percy. Obvious concern is that he's only placed when stepped up to G1 company and he's had 2 runs this year. Authorised is the only recent winner seemigly bred without a bit of speed close by and Recital looks hardily bred. His route to Epsom will always be respected and if being a touch generous, allows us to overlook deficiencies in his profile (getting beaten in the Ballysax) and tendencies in his races (liking a look around) plus his trainers' recent inability to nail the big prize here. I'd have Carlton House slightly longer, Recital and Native Khan similar prices and the other two outsider of these 5. There are holes in all of these but the same applied last year and we were treated to a stunning performance, a brilliant time and a huge winning margin. Who is to say the same cannot happen again, after all, the winner will be on a hat-trick for Epsom Derby winners in the Arc (0-5-5-NR-0-NR-1-1) |
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Not sure wether a definite runner but the 1 well overpriced is Casamento had Guineas 2nd & 3rd behind in the Racing Post Trophy & Seville also.
Unfortunately Frankie decided to sprint to try & catch Frankel for 5 furlongs b4 blowing up in GNS Not given a hard race once the task was clearly impossible. |
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Yeah, I wondered about him but Godolphin quoted saying he might go to France.
They had 3 under consideration, (Him, Genius Beast and Ocean War) and would presume he's off to France after Genius Beast's failure to win a trial at the weekend. That aside, he's got class and a decent profile, it''s just that (understandable) but nonetheless stinking run in the Guineas that spoils it. |
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Ocean War for me of the longer priced ones, they do seem to prefer him to casamento re actually running him, that thing that won the decent handicap at Newbury was well behind Cai Shen who was comfortably taken out by the winner at Newmarket and 25-1 looks a fair price
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It's not too difficult to get agreement over the rank order of the main contenders so the relative relationship becomes the main issue, with the price of CH and the choice of runners from Coolmore being the factors which bear most on the discussion.
From a layers pov, Ch must be laid on the day because it will be overbet due to the sentiment attached.So, whatever it gets backed down to in the A/P book there will be better prices available on the day. There is NO value in backing it now what with the risk of injury and it being so short. Anyone backing it before the day would be silly. Laying it if on at bigger prices is the only sensible option because even if you want to let the bet run you will be able to back it back at the same or even bigger odds on the day. Of the others, it all depends on Coolmore's decision. Until that is known, there is too big a risk of backing a non-runner. Should Pour Moi be announced a runner, I do believe that his price has potential to shorten into 2nd fav. Godolphin will have a runner (Ocean War) and K.Abdullah will want one. Perhaps Picture Editor can oblige today. And what runs for the Aga Khan? Surely something will. I can't see where the momemtum will come for anything else, and that includes Native Khan, unless something comes out of the Irish 2000 Gns (Dunboyne E?) In sum, the AP market timing is not right for a move on anything. We must wait and see what happens to change things. |
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Yes it is unsual for the Coolmore crew to give punting advice and you get the strong impression one of their big three,Sev,Rec and Pour will miss Epsom. That being the case, it's hard to have a punt now particularly on the Fav as once/if one of their runners is re-routed to France then he'll become 6/4 or 11/8 !!
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I think its a case of if you either believe the Seville/Casamento/Pathfork/Native Khan(and there by definition through Seville-Carlton House)form lines are reliable or not regarding how you are going to bet on the race, ive chosen the view that i want to be against those lines and have backed Ocean War at 25s as the 1st point, i'll look again on the day and may play Recital and Pour Moi in f/cs
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I am waiting for (1) Carlton House's price to get to crazy low (2) the final declarations.
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its not a one horse race by any means but carlton house will win. why? because he's the best horse in the race and the derby tends to be overrated as a horserace anyway. its not the best horse race in the world anymore, the arc is, and you don't always have to be an exceptional horse to win it. the opposition looks mediocre at best.
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Backed him in the Dante because I thought World Domination was all hype but was far from impressed.
Doesn't even wet my appetite and I thinks he's a certainty...to get beat!!! Firm ground maybe Native Khan good ground perhaps Nathaniel but I really don't fancy anything big time. I doubt if the winner will be single figured in the betting and reckon some silly priced thing could beat them all. Shockingly bad Derby. |
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Agreed that it looks a poor Derby at the moment, and i'd rather lay CH than back him. However, the doubt exists because if Stoute gets the same level of improvement from Dante to Derby as he did for Workforce last year...
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Wonderful thread.
I actually don't think it's gonna be a bad Derby. I honestly believe there is two top class colts and maybe three if Recital can relax. |
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It's instructive to look back to this time last year when St Nicholas Abbey was still favourite and Workforce was 15/2. When SNA was ruled out Jan Vermeer was made fav and was as short as 13/8 in the run-up although went off 9/4 fav with WF 6/1. There was a late gamble on Rewilding (into 9/2).
JV ( a G1 winner and winner of Leop Trial) was beaten over 11 lengths, Rewilding never got into it and WF destroyed the field despite having been beaten in the Dante (Dante losers can't win Derby). How will this year's market be shaken up, I wonder? And do you really want to be backing CH at 7/4? |
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Momementum behind a horse is a function of betting support and media hype. There is movement in CH but I can't believe that any serious professional player wants to take 6/4 with 10 days to go when he knows that layers will want to get the horse on the day. Neither can it be small once-a-year players who will play on the day, so its has to be a lack of any real support for others until the Coolmore contingent is clarified, and, most likely, media attention.
CH is getting lots of attention because of ownership of HM who is high profile now. The media want CH to win and any producer or editor is going to get interviews with the trainer & jockey so we can expect a lot more of this exposure. The most important factor though will be BM manipulation.I think that BM's are shortening up the price because that implies support and can help to create a firestorm of support between now and then which means that in the A/P book they can lay at very short prices. But the A/P market is miniscule compared to the day of race of market and BF's A/P market is a tiny fraction of the overall A/P market. BF A/P a joke market, just look at the sums up there.It means nothing. BM's will want to reduce the price of this horse to as low as possible so that on the day they can open up at around 2.0 and their PR's will talk about it going odds-on. That will create a rush to take the 2.0 from all the small punters and this could be then a big pay day for the BM's because as the on-course layers get stuck into it it will drift out near the off to something like 7/4 or 2/1 and the BM's will have fun hedging their books to create an all-green book. Then if it wins they will say how much it has cost the industry. Don't be fooled about what is happening now. It has nothing to do with debates on here about who will win the race. In fact it has nothing to with proable chances anyway.It is now about BMs controlling the market and maximising their profit. |
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Well i'll be laying him at Evens , if he gets that low, on the day given this current line-up.
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I'm ready for the story about a mysterious punter who walks into a betting shop in betting Croydon / Walsall / Mansfield and puts £200k on Carlton House to win the Derby.
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What colour hat was she wearing, Kincsem?
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Emerald green coat and hat.
One does like a bet. |
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Actually Beryl there's no such a thing as a bad Derby so perhaps I was a bit rash suggesting so. No doubt whatever wins it with Frankel remaining at shorter trips will be Challenging Workforce and co later t in the season and could end up being a very good horse. Up to now nothing seems to fit that bill though.
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It now looks like there will be a small field with just 6 runners with at least some chance. Add a couple for chancers and maybe 10 runners 12 max perhaps, so Fabre shouldn't be put off by concerns about a large field for Pour Moi. My greatest concern for PM is the inexperience of the jockey around Epsom, but that's built into the price at around 8.0. This horse would be around 5.0 or 6.0 at max with a more experienced pilot.
Ch price is being kept short by a few hundred waiting to back. Given that the total BF A/P market has just £600k staked (half that in real money) with much of that figure traded, it's easily manipulated. Most of the big BM's have accounts on here and its easy for them to shorten up a price. Assumimg that AOB runs Recital and Seville and Fabre runs PM (making 3 for Coolmore) and with Native Khan and Ocean QWar both looking likely to run, its difficult to see how the market can alter except to harden for all the principles. The Bf market has slack in it to contract, and I think that we are now looking to see CH harden into 5/4 with PM& R into 6/1 and S around 7/1. That would be my guess. If that's right, then there will be plenty of EW players on the day looking for a bet to nothing. Assuming 5m punters min and say an average £20 bet that's around £100m on the day with perhaps 50% at least on CH.A quarter or even half a point can make a big difference to the BM's so expect CH to harden up soon. |
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Pisco Sour will run, confirmed, as will Masked Marvel, confirmed also. Then there are some potential rags likes Memphis Tennesse and Tresure Beach.
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Ladbr0kes 11/8 Carlton House for the Derby today.
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CARLTON HOUSE, favourite for the Investec Derby, was cut for the Epsom Classic again on Monday with Ladbrokes predicting support for the Queen's colt is "just warming up."
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who has five Derby victories on his cv, Carlton House owes his position at the head of the betting to his stylish success in the Totesport Dante at York this month and could trigger a nationwide gamble come June 4. Ladbrokes are 11-8 (from 6-4) and the firm's Hayley O'Connor said on Monday: "Popularity for Carlton House is building and there's simply no telling how big the gamble on him is going to be. We've had to shorten him to 11-8 and there's a good chance that his support is just warming up." More like a good chance that BM's will make certain that CH is perceived as shortening up! |
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Fake anticipation money, i see you. I've also noticed winners being pushed out as if there's been no support for them in recent weeks. Odd comparison sites are becoming a slightly weeker tool for the punter. I think these sites are being manipulated. Carlton House shouldn't be anywhere near the price he is just now. The bookies will just have to find out that punters want a bet on the horse who they think will win, and not who they want to win because the Queen owns it. 6/4 fav when the field hasn#t even been confirmed..get the eff out of here.
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Is the Queen due to visit the Chelsea Flower Show? If she does Carlton House goes to 5/4.
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Imo CH has weaker credentials than Motivator when he won his Derby.
He had rock solid performances behind him and his opposition was poor yet he started 3/1 SP Food for thought? |
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I saw that CH had been shortened again yesterday and was a bit surprised. It looks like it might go off 5/4 or shorter on the day and doesn't seem to have the same form as some previous favorites for the race. I was also thinking of the comparisons to Motivator. Amazing that Sea the stars was 11/4 for the Derby and yet had shown much better form than has been shown so far (albeit some concerns it might not stay). I would be looking further down the market at Native Khan as a I feel that piece of form looks very good in the light of Dubawi performance in the Irish guineas and it appeared to be staying on well at the end off a good pace.
Understand from a bookmakers perspective that if the weight of money is all for CH they will want to shorten it up but at the same time CH may have an implied near 50% chance of winning on the day which seems to overstate his chances |
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Dont forget one of the main contenders from Ballydoyle could switch to France. IF that happens CH will shorten again and will make for a cracking lay. Awful price currently.
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I don't think that CH will actually go off at evens but I do think it will shorten up between now and then as punters are encouraged to believe that a massive off-course gamble is taking place and CH is a near certainty to win.
BM's will get their satchels filled at the short price, then on the day as the on-course layers try and get CH into their satchels, its price will drift out to perhaps 2/1 at the off. That will mean BM's can then shorten up the next 3 or 4 in the betting so the public will then believe that something is not quite right with CH and the big BM's can then get as much as possible taken for the other runners giving them books nicely balanced to maximise over-rounds. A bit of hedging on the fav might be possible too, although BM's are really into maximising the "take" . This is a business remember and BM's have had centuries to hone their window dressing skills. |
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I think CH could go off as low as 4/7. The Derby isn't usually a big betting event for the non betting public, but think there'll be a lot of incremental money from joe public this year, and it'll all be on one horse...
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Street Cry (stallion) has an AEI of 0.84. An average stallion would have 1.00 (by definition). And bolstering that figure Street Cry has Zenyatta with 13 group/Grade 1s and £4,710,038 prizemoney, with Shocking, winner of the Melbourne Cup with £2,490,921. His record as a stallion outside a few top horses is not impressive, and most wins are on all-weather. I am impressed that his stud fee is USD150,000 as very few of his progeny win that back.
Perhaps Carlton House is one of his good ones? |
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4/7
 Who on earth is going to back him at odds on after just about beating the Ballydoyle No. 2 in an unsatisfactory trial? Even joe public isn't that stupid. |
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you just watch - joe public will lump on
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you just watch - joe public will lump on
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Interesting to note that laddies have ducked out of pricing up Roderic o Connor until this week, when they opened at 20s, now 16s with them, but only 10s at korrals..
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4-7 would be lay of the year.
Sorry but my grandmother is not going to run along the betting shop to have 50p each way on Carlton House just because the Queen owns it. This flood of public money being anticipated is a bit unlikely surely? |
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I don't think the gamble a week Saturday will just be because CH is owned by the Queen.In many people's eyes he is of course the most likely winner. Sir Michael and Ryan 'loves the media' Moore have been interviewed this week and been pretty positive about him (for them anyway)and I see the gallops rumor mill has been whirring today which will add to Carlton House fever come Derby day.
I think the Royal factor will just add to it. I'm not sure the public bet on the Derby like they do on say the National but I'm sure they'll be people sticking it in multiples etc or just having a few quid on it. Personally I'd be very surprised if he went 4/7 and at that price I agree with Tucho that he would have to be a lay. |
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Pour Moi is an intended runner after pleasing Fabre in a gallop at Epsom this money. Expect this to shorten up considerably into 2nd fav.
CH is priced up on hype and an over-reading of the actual form i#he has achieved. The time for the Dante was slower than any of the previous Dante winners of the last 10-15 years (and losers if including Workforce)by a considerable margin. Worse, the figure was even slower than many of the Dante winners who went on to lose at Epsom, so just how is CH priced at 6/4 ? He has at least 3 rivals in Recital, Pour Moi and Seville who have claims to be close as well as |Native Khan who could be said to have run a great trial when third in the 2000 Gns. On current prices the market is saying that expects CH to finish around 5-6 lengths in front of these 4. I couldn't possibly argue that even if the figures were good at York, which they weren't. Expect Pour Moi to close the gap with CH on the day |