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dee
When a horse has clocked a fast time, you know that the form is solid. If the race is slowly run, you have to take it on trust that it is capable of running to a fast time figure in line with its higher collateral rating. That may or may not be true. That is where the doubt lies with CH. Faster pace over further and on a idiosyncratic track makes it not a done deal. |
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Dee, I don't think anybody has said that CH couldn't clock a good time given the opportunity, you're right it was impossible the way the Dante was run. It's just that he's such a short price for a horse that has only won a slowly run trial.
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Sandown, sorry to sidetrack the thread but I'm interested in your view on the Oaks?
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Figgis
Haven't really got into it but Blue Bunting ran an even pace in the 1000 Gns which is usually a good indicator that if bred to stay it will stay, maybe even improve. In which case it looks a strong favourite. Can't say that the figures are exceptional however ...but still better than CH for the Derby ..although that colt does have a TOF which BB hasn't shown. |
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Ok, thanks.
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Sandown / Figgis, fair enough point CH still has to go and prove it and I guess everything in this business is price related. If you have not backed CH at big prices its risky to find out if he can clock good times.
My main point i guess, is that I like to back horses that overcome problems and still find ways to win. For me CH pulled hard got outpaced and still came back to win. Funnily enough I have backed CH antepost and i was more concerned not with a lack of stamina but why he got outpaced briefly. |
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figgis/ sandown
Its actually good to have a discussion and feel able to disagree without the other person resorting to abuse. Thank you. Now then you half wits.... only joking. Carlton House is a typical problem for time students. He has won a maiden albeit impressively and won the Dante, also pretty impressively. The trainer (no mug) seems to think he's a Derby horse and has trained him for the Dante since last year. He is bred to stay and looks sure to be suited by a stronger pace and longer trip. However his time rating would be akin to a poor plater. If he won the Derby (admittedly a big doubt and a silly price at 6/4) he would, according to speed figures, have improved around 4 stones. As I say I like a decent speed figure to confirm the form of a horse, but there is a huge gap in speed figures as Carltion Hosue demonstartes so well. |
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Stoue and Moore don't strike me as the type of people who would hold a press conference about a horse who won't stay the trip.
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The question about the horse is not whether he will stay the trip. Its whether he is good enough and gets luck in running. 6/4 is a pretty mean price. I think he is okay ish at 5/2 but no shorter than that. I have just laid him at 6/4 - a value decision. I suspect he'll be easily available at 7/4 or 2/1 on the day. I think the bookies are hyping the horse in respect to the price and trying to convince people that its a certainty.
Look at it this way. The once or twice a year punters won't be backing ante post. Professional punters are generally not imbeciles. They will therefore be quite unlikely to be hammering into this horse at 7/4 and less. Its my guess the horse is a huge winner for the bookies in the ante post markets because of the defection of Frankel. They are trying to milk their profits. |
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cryoftruth
Carlton House is a typical problem for time students. In point of fact, CH is not a typicalproblem for time students because horses with time figures as poor as his prior to the Derby is not typical at all of potential Derby winners. If anything, CH is a problem for collateral handicappers who insist on giving him a high rating despite the warnings given by the poor time and therefore poor pace of the race on which the rating is made. No-one is saying that CH is a poor horse, obviously. Good horses can win despite a poor pace and he showed enough of a turn of foot which combined with his breeding to indicate that he is much better than the bare form. That combined with the confidence shown by his illustrious connections and his work indicate that he is highly thought of. But he should never be 6/4 fav and there is a case for saying that he shouldn't even be favourite. his position at the head of the market is based on potential and promise beyond the facts. Taking just the last 10-15 years of Dante winners, CH returned a figure on my ratings of 19lbs behind the poorest winner of the Dante which went on to win at Epsom, i.e North Light.His figure is even below that of Workforce who didn't win the Dante. That's bad enough, but I can also tell you that his figures are some 13lb plus below those of the poorest winners which didn't win at Epsom i.e Septimus, Dilshaan, Magistrelli. To my mind, CH is not a problem for me. There is no way that I will play him (at current prices) as a winner. At best, he is a saver allowing for the massive respect one must give to trainer and jockey. He will no doubt show how good he really is,in the Derby itself. But to say with confidence that he is the best horse in the race is to grossly over-rate what he has done. |
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Sandown
That's a valid comparison with North Light. I took 8's for him after the Dante (apologies for the 7 years aftertiming [;)]). Despite the slow time, I very much liked what I saw him do in the Dante. He started at 7/2 on the day, for me, CH should be no shorter than that. |
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Figgis
I've no problems with people saying what they backed years ago or even weeks ago -its immediately following the race that is aggravating.If we can't refer to past events there would be no history books at all- in fact there would be no history, full stop! |
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'his position at the head of the market is based on potential and promise beyond the facts.'
imo his position at the head of the market is as a result of the weight of money in that ante-post market...that money forced World Dom, Carlton House and Seville into 1st, 2nd and 3rd favouritism for the Derby prior to the Dante, so it's inevitable that having taken care of his 2 closest market rivals C House would become a strong fav, no matter what the time for the Dante. Was the ante-post market right to make them the strongest Derby candidates? You decide. The Dante time was slow due to a funereal pace. Whilst that slow pace provides a doubt as to the value of the form, included in that is the possibility that CH wasnt able to show his true superiority....who knows, he might have gone and won by 4 lengths like Authorized, say, off a true pace. I'm no speed figure expert at all but i would have thought that you would worry when a horse had the opportunity to post a good figure and didnt....C House had no opportunity to post a good figure at York. |
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Sandown a good response as ever.
I would admit its a problem for form as well as time buffs the question of how good carlton house actually is. The reason is not just that he has never been in a fast race and thus has never had the chance to record a fast time. Its the Dante form is suspect anyway. The horses involved were mainly half fit, first time out, or needing as deal further. The value of the form is entirely guess work , as is which horse will improve most for the run and the step up in trip. I thought Carlton house's maiden win looked visually very interesting and had a ring of class about it. The fact that he has a big reputation and is thought of highly by Sir Michael is another clue. his pedigree is very nice and he should stay okay. His winning the Dante, albeit a confusing Dante is a positive and all things considered it would be a surprise if he was not a group 1 performer. However 5/4??? He could improve 10 lbs on what he has done on the track so far and still only finish 3rd or 4th at Epsom! |
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To Duncan re good figures, this was in Mordins column a wek ago re the last 5 furlongs
The most remarkable thing about the Dante was that the early pace was slow but the colts failed to make up the lost time in the sprint for home. They reached the five furlong from home mark 3.2 seconds later than the fillies did in the Middleton Stakes yet still came home from there a fifth of a second slower. He went on to say that the last 3 furlongs was 0.90 quicker than the Middleton though, its the risk/reward scenario and although he can win there is every chance he's not the real deal, at the current odds i have to try and get him out of the two |
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Thanks, zilzal....yes, i did some sectionals myself and the Dante didnt start clawing back time on the Middleton until inside final 3f
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