congratulations carlton house- 2011 derby winner.

Very impressive.

A worthy Derby favourite I would say.

Seville looks a lovely horse too but more of a leger type I a sure.

Looks at the time and date of this thread.

He does look to have the Derby at his mercy - if he comes out of the race OK I don't see what can beat him, unless he has a nightmare passage or gets injured.

Persoanlly feel he goes there as a stronger favourite than Authorised did a few years ago so I just lumped on at 5/2 with Billies

Impressive. Didn't settle, missed the kick for home, was impeded in running and still won handily. Looks like he'll improve a lot for the run. Happy days for Her Maj.

Excellent AFTER-TIMING. Prefer to tell you what will win BEFORE THE RACE.

eric_morris
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
When: 01 May 11 12:09

To be honest I think HRAC is going to chicken out of the Derby and this horse will go down as a 'what could have been'. He doesnt have the nads of Oxx.

Never mind I just lost most interest in him the St James Palace doesnt register on my scale of races for all time greats.

Hope others who have now lost the sentimentality re HRAC having an all time great colt had anticipated this could happen and have built a book around him.

Carlton House is now my fancy for the Derby which has a strong chance of being without Frankel imo.

All that trial told us was what tactics AOB will employ in the Derby.

Just so we know before the race, eric....what are your Derby views and ante-post position on Pour Moi?

C'mon Headmaster, he'll tell you at around 4-30 on the 4th of June, be reasonable......

I think eric may have missed this little French beauty, zil, and he's got his work cut out recovering the Frankel exposure too

Be nice to know, though..eh?

I havent had a bet yet TH, what do you think of the Godawful one Ocean War??? although he may be a St Leger animal, there isnt a lot of depth in the market imo

Eric / Mayweather, dont have Pour Moi or Recital in their book. They going to have to spin a good story to get them on side, i am sure they will.

He just looks a tad slow (and still a little green) to me, zil.  Think you may be right re the Leger.  Got him in the book so don't want to do him down too much but Carlton and PM have a sharp turn of foot and one or both will definitely get the trip.  As of yet, OW hasn't shown that fifth gear that will be required - although it's perfectly possible he hasn't been properly tested and will reveal previously hidden qualities on June 4th.

Essexyguy, Eric/Mayweather saved on Recital at 12/1 after Jim Mcgrath tipped him up on C4 a couple of weeks ago.

He has done his cash on World Dom and Frankel already though. Fires plenty of darts does our special Mayweather.

The Harcourt may throw some light on Godolphin's Derby challenge in more ways than one, imo.

who cares whos backed what and what people have done before. i hate all these people who dwell in the past.

this will go off the shortest priced favourite for the derby in many years when the public money comes for him on the day. anyone opposing it will be sent to the tower.

FYI Essexguy. Clueless isn't he ?


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Am on at 12s my Derby book with Frankel 25s.
Interesting few weeks to come. Rate reply:


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By: This user is online. eric_morris
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Jim on the Merning Line seemed to behind Rectal this morning.

The proximity of the 98 rated Pisco Sour throws a pretty big question mark over the value of that performance for me (although it may be explained by the time the race was run in - over 3 seconds slower than Midday).

Loads to prove but arguably the pick of an under-whelming bunch on what they've shown to date.

Pisco Sour dictated a very slow pace...no surprise he wasnt beaten far...matter of judgement if he holds the form down or not...i wouldnt take that view

Yep I could get pretty close to Usain Bolt over 100 metres provided he "wins" it in around 15 seconds.
I would take a big positive for the winner as he didnt have the run of the race having to quicken up off a very slow gallop.

Obviously the best horse on the day won but I'm not sure that it was Derby winning form, the way the race was run didn't help to reveal a great deal, except that World Domination has been overhyped.

Geoff.

It also revealed Seville has no speed, certainly not over 10f in Group1 company.

If it was Soft at Epsom, unlikely, then he'd be interesting.

btw, Hugie Morrision is keen to take his horse to Epsom.

I agree with Figgis.  I'm a bit sceptical about the value of the Dante form and I'm surprised that most people seem to be convinced that the winner Carlton House will now go and win at Epsom.  He looks terribly poor value at around 2/1, as I think it still looks a very open Derby.  Pour Moi looks at least as good as Carlton House (to my eyes anyway), the difference being that Pour Moi won his Gr.2 race in a comparatively much faster time and in more impressive fashion.  I also think that there is considerable improvement in Seville and would not be the least bit surprised if he were to reverse the Dante form at Epsom: this was just a trial after all and he will be 100% for the Derby.  Recital's form is right up there with Carlton House and he would have definite prospects if ridden with more patience than at Leopardstown.  Godolphin have a strong hand, and plans for their entries should become clearer after the weekend.

Sorry I am not in the Figgis/jamesp camp.

The winner looked in need of the run to me and had the most scope of any of them today.

In spite of being bred to stay he ran over them today, quickening past a proven group 1 perfomer, who was himself quickening.

The winner won very well going away, he will improve again for a bteer pace and a step up in trip. I see no reason to doubt the value of the form - maybe approaching around a mark of 120 at a guess. He may need to improve about 10 lbs to win at epsom but that looks possible, even probable.

Of course there is the question of value. I had backed him before at bigger odds but not for much. After the race Betfair were always shorter than the bookies so I traded at 5/2 backing and laying at 9/4. I think he is a worthy favourite and that 5/2 is about right.

James - I think a lot of the confidence is simply down to who trains it, whether you think that is justified is anothe rmatter

Similar profile to Workforce - 9L maiden winner, aimed at Dante ever since, ridden in such a way as to get experience and almost certain to come on a bundle for the race etc, etc. Everything about the way Stoute has campaigned it says it's a proper Derby horse.

Unless it's soft I don't see Seville turning the form around, though I still think he's the best of Ballydoyles contingent.

Agree Pour Moi is the main danger but until he's confirmed for the race it's hard to back him.

Carlton House easily the best horse in the race, a faster pace he wins further maybe others watching a different race to me.

Pour Moi has his best chance in France he wont be having a dawdle then sprint at Epsom. Recital will be the main challenger to Carlton House and Native Khan could run a race.

I already had Carlton House highest rated going into the race, even though Seville had the Group 1 form, it was a cracking time he ran at Newbury. For me, he didn't really prove anything more than I already knew about him. A faster run race would've revealed more but at the current price he's appalling value.

figgis

again I am not in agreement. I think he was fair enough at 5/2. he has really strong form, has speed and stamina, seems to act well on soft or faster going, is improving and will lack nothing in preparation. I like his chance much better than the others.

He is a definite runner for starters and the stable number one. Unlike the Coolmore mob where any of them might be asked to become pace makers in the Derby (remember Duke Of Marmalade at 3?) he will be ridden in the best way to suit himself rather than stable companions.

I cannot see either of the 2 main Aiden hopes really. I know joking apart that Recital has very strong form and may be improving. He wasn't actually quite as doggish last time as I (and others made out). But a horse that hangs like he does may not be a perfect partner at Epsom, even for a rider a strong as Keiren. Seville was outclassed by a faster horse today and I cannot see him reversing that form at Epsom. I like Genius Beast and Pour Moi; but they are not certain runners.

Carlton House looks the likeliest winner to me. Today the connections stated that the Dante had been the plan since the brilliant maiden win at Newbury - Stoute knew this was a likely Derby horse from quite a long time ago. he was 5 or 6/1 before the Dante, and as I am not a big follower of speed figures like figgis, I think he proved a great deal today by p1ssing all over the runner up in last year's racing post trophy, even if the time of the race was slow.

What price can you put on the likely winner of the Derby? If he was 5/1 before the race, bookies were unlikely to push him out in the betting after a brilliant win in the Dante were they?

The problem is the proximity of Pisco Sour (beaten 4 lengths in third), a 98-rated horse who was beaten more than 20 lengths by Roderic O'Connor (admittedly on heavy ground) on his final start last year.  That's the problem with slowly-run races, the form often gets dragged down by inferior horses finishing close up.  It's debatable whether Carlton House can be rated any higher than Ocean War (winner of the Newmarket Stakes) or Genius Beast (winner of the Sandown Classic Trial).  I strongly suspect that Seville was some way below his best and he remains of considerable interest, since fast ground is clearly no problem for him (he ran very well on fast ground, although it was officially 'good', in the Racing Post Trophy last year).

eric_morris 12 May 11 20:21 
Pour Moi has his best chance in France he wont be having a dawdle then sprint at Epsom.
What a ridiculous comment.  The Prix Greffulhe was run at a proper pace and the winning time was comparatively much faster than the Dante.

But surely that means Frankels Guineas win is dragged down by the proximity (6L) of the exposed Dubawi Gold rated 101?

I have never been a wieghts and measures man or a time student - I just believe what my eyes tell me (of course I get it wrong plenty of times  - 'should have gone to spec savers')

The Guineas, unlike the Dante, was run at a furious pace and there seems no reason to doubt the form!

The placed horses in the Guineas finished 11 lengths (yes, 11 lengths) clear of the remainder.  A phenomenal performance by Frankel and the placed horses have to be rated accordingly.

The Racing Post says Carlton House could stay at about 2/1 antepost until the day of the race when they expect a flood of money for the Queen's horse and think he will start at evens or odds on.
The Dante time was slow.  A slow time in a small field is a bit iffy.  The winner's damside pedigree says stamina but the sire says speed, so its a coinflip on staying.

Street Cry's best progeny have all been best at up to 10f - with the sole exception of Melbourne Cup winner Shocking.  At evens or odds-on (on the day) I will definitely be a layer.

Everyone seems to be a bit hung up on the Dante being the best trial.

Nothing I saw today had me thinking there's a Derby winner in there.  I accept that Carlton House's profile is strikingly similar to that of Workforce and would not be surprised to see him go well, but the price is miserable and today's race was rather a non-event.

Open this year!

PS I see Eric has added Native Khan to his bulging book...

It's fairly obvious that kirk is suffering from psychosis.

I think the price is all down to the weakness of the race (I mean World Domination was favourite before today ffs) and the fact that most people expect the horse to improve a bundle, like Workforce did last year. Certainly the way Stoute and Moore were talking after the race suggests to me that whatever he did today they will be confidently expecting much more at Epsom.
Like COT I saw the 5/2 with Billies as a nice arbing opportunity - I'm waiting to lay at 6/4 though

jamesP maybe you think his trainer is ridiculous as that is what he thinks is best for Pour Moi. Carlton House won inthe style of a really class horse it isnt about lbs and proximity of others it is about the style and potential improvement of a horse maybe you should stick to fillies and strongopinions on Helleborine.

20s

I find it difficult to pick holes in Carlton House today. Pulled like a train, tapped for toe for a few strides when they quickened turning in, knuckled down really impressively for a still very inexperienced horse and showed no hesitation in going through a pretty tight gap. Moore did not need to give him a single crack with the whip, he won going away, despite the lack of pace, when clearly he will be suited by more of a stamina test. I also liked the fact that when he got bumped by Seville he did not flinch or lose balance/rhythm for even a stride. Stoute's horses have been pretty out of form and improving significantly for a run. I see no reason to think that this horse will be any different. Assuming he gets to Epsom he will be a shorter price than today.

Eric - do you really think Magnier is going to stand by and let a son of Street Cry win the Derby? Do you even know who stands him?  There are bigger forces at work and as long as Pour Moi has a leg in each corner he runs - and he should be fav imo.

Ha ha good one not swayed at all by your position on him obviously

Says the bloke who TODAY started a thread campaigning for Frankel to run in the Derby! 

You couldn't make it up.

Yep their will certainly be a Coolmore battalion testing Carltons stamina.

Where is this information about Pour Moi coming from? Everything you're attributing to Fabre flies in the face of what he's actually doing.

He sent [Coolmore's] Pour Moi left-handed for the Greffulhe. He's sending his Prix Noailles winner to the Prix Hocquart giving the clearest possible indication who his Prix du Jockey Club fancy is, yet your saying even before that race is run he's dictating to Coolmore what to do with their horse. Since when did "god" become so unprofessional?

Oh no eric, be in no doubt I am 100% talking my book

If you had my green you would be too

Carlton House 2/1 Seville 8/1 after today!! Have I been watching a different race? Can quite easily see Seville improving past him next time out.Would not back Carlton House at 2/1 with anybodys money!!

Carlton House is a shocking price currently for an ante-post wager. I'd back him at 5/2 on day of the race but not a chance in this market.

Before the race John Warren was talking about how much speed this horse had, so it was no surprise he was able to win of a slow pace. It looked more impressive than it actually was. He's a shocking ante-post bet at current prices.

And his profile is not similar to Workforce, just the campaign is. Workforce had 1 run less and although that does not sound like much, after his Dante defeat he still fell under the ''could be anything'' category, due to the fact he was changing his legs around the bend on very quick ground (Midday got jarred up earlier on) and had the bit slip through his mouth up the home straight. It was no surprise he considerably improve.

Carlton House is more similar to Tartan Bearer, NOT the mighty Workforce.

More similar to Tartan Bearer.

was 10/1 to win both dante and derby this morning

wouldnt bother at those prices.

Although I think Carlton House was the best horse in the race, I don't believe he actually won going away, you might notice that Soumillon accepted the fact about a half furlong from home and eased up on the runner up, so if you look at it more closely he's not really winning going away, I know that Moore didn't hit his horse but it was also noticeable that Soumillon was only waving his, obviously both jockeys were under orders not to give them a hard time and I suppose its reasonable to suggest that both horses were not fully wound up.
I for one won't be writing Seville's obituary just yet, and dismissing his chances of turning the tables, Epsom is of course Epsom??.

Carlton House has three slow times against standard time.  The Derby is seldom a slowly run race.  So Carlton House will have to do something he has not done before.

Carlton House is no Workforce and that was one of the weakest Dante fields I think I have witnessed in quite some time. The price is just rank bad value and there will be better value options on the day.

Essesguy / Sintonian - I told you!!!

I am the man! I keep giving winner after winner in these threads.

You lot need to start listening to the master.

I am on Calrton House big and I am going to win big!

Essexguy - your Derby horses are down the pan lol

Cryoftruth

I don't disagree with your reasoning and it is no surprise to see the bookies cramp his odds after no outstanding candidate emerging from the other trials. I do agree with what others have said on here though, that this year's Dante had been automatically presumed to contain the Derby winner. Whichever of the first 3 in the betting had won they were guaranteed to start favourite for the Derby. I agree that Carlton House is still a horse of enormous potential but until we see him this year in a truly run race, that's all he remains.

Actually, at the prices I prefer to side with your previous selection, the horse that jamesp is sweet on, Pour Moi. His trial was a strongly run race, his time was good and he he has improved a great deal on what he'd shown previously. He won in such convincing style that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him improve again on that.

Figgis

I share your opinion entirely.The Dante was run in a disappointing time and whilst CH showed courage to go through the gap and did so with a class TOF the slow final time prevents one from judging just how good he might be. The figures for the race are the poorest for 10 years and whilst the trainer's record has to be respected, I believe that the current price is based on lack of solid opposition. The same comments must apply to Seville, of course and I wouldn't want to be adamant that CH will beat him again over further and with a faster pace.Perhaps he will.If Pour Moi was a certain runner I can't see how CH could be 2/1 and PM remain at 10/1.He must contract to half that price at least, given that his figures can't be faulted.

Sandown

As a sectional time enthusiast, do you think he is capable of bettering his already decent latest time figure?

I can see the logic in those suggesting that Seville will be suited by a strong test, but I have two points against it. Firstly, the Derby hasn't always been a really true test in recent years, but more importantly, Seville has now lost 3 of his 4 races, with a mickey mouse maiden win to his name. Derby winners do not make a habit of losing after breaking their maiden. There are 3 horses who have beaten the subsequent Derby winner (post maiden win) in the last 10 years: George Washington, Henrythenavigator, Cape Blanco. All were subsequent multiple group 1 winners at 8-10 furlongs. Seville was beaten by Casamento, and now Carlton House, who, after losing his maiden, has shown a classic Derby winning profile, in winning a maiden very comfortably and now winning the top trial on his first 3yo start. Unexposed, trained and ridden by the best available. What more do people want? 10-1?

Figgis

As a sectional time enthusiast, do you think he is capable of bettering his already decent latest time figure?


Don't think he has a decent time figure to his name, to be honest, at least as far as judging G1 potential is concerned. His finishing split in the Dante suggests strongly that he can do a lot better than he has shown but really the final time was so slow, even allowing for coming over to the near rail,that I wouldn't know how good he might be.I do know that the Dante may very well be misleading and I couln't rate him a 2/1 chance for the Derby. In fact, at that price I'm a layer but there again I'm not impressed by either Seville or Recital so I would (and have)lay all three.If Pour Moi doesn't come over then this may be a year for an unknown to hit the jackpot.

Sandown

I was referring to Pour Moi. I must disagree about CH's figure at Newbury though, I rated it a very good time for a 2yo over a mile, the ground was becoming progressively slower that day. Like I said though, the Dante didn't prove to me he's gone on from that.

For me, Recital has the best final timefigure of any of the contenders (albeit only 2lbs higher than Pour Moi). I have him on the same rating I had Fame And Glory heading into the Derby. Like you though I'm unconvinced about him progressing on that, so I couldn't have him. I've backed Pour Moi and I'm hoping today's money for him is significant of connections' intentions.

Figgis


I rate Pour Moi as a 126 horse (projection) but I wouldn't be 100% confident because I don't have a good base for St Cloud

Ok, thanks, Sandown.

sorry to post this early but i never sleep.

its interesting that many think that the reason why carlton house is so short is because of the lack of opposition.
I agree completely.

carlton house will win by default. can anyone tell me that north light, oath, shaamit's, high rise ect derbys were great races. even high chapparals derby win, if you take out the second hawk wing, was complete gash.

probably at least 50 percent of derbys are not any good at all. carlton house to me screams a mile and a half horse. before the race I was very unclear about his stamina for the derby, but looking at him in the dante, he looks a magnificent stamp of a racehorse who will improve hugely for the step up in trip. the only other horse who looks like he'll be top class at 1 mile 4 is recital, but while he's clearly very talented, he also looks like he could at some point be reassigned to battersea dogs home.

forget pour moi. hes a poor mans sea bird. the race he won last time may have looked impressive, but he clocked a slower time over the last three furlongs than galikova did despite coming off a much slower gallop. hardly inspires confidence for epsom. seville is an exposed slowboat and you are struggling to put anything up against the favourite past those.

anyway lets be honest about it- we all know deep down that carlton house is going to win. its like the poker advert says- sometimes you have to go with your gut. its been a great year for the royal family- and its going to continue at epsom in june.

Frankel can beat Carlton House over 1m 4f, agree re Pour Moi doubt he'll turn up doesnt look half as classy as Carlton House. Recital by far their best chance in the race.

HRAC can now give us the race of the season, Frankel will have had a nice break since the Guineas and can prove to be an all time great if given the chance with only 2 horses to beat.

Mythical Prince

Take away the subjectivity and your argument comes down to these points.

1. CH has the looks
2. CH has the stamina for 12f.
3. Recital has a doubtful temperament
4. Pour Moi's performance should be downgraded because it was inferior to Galikova.
5. It's the year of the Royals.
6. 2/1 is a fair price because there is no competition.

1  I'll take your opinion not having seen him in the flesh myself.
2. Agree
3. Agree
4. Disagree strongly.Both horses displayed an excellent TOF with almost identical splits and looked as though they could have gone faster if needed. PM was given much more to do whilst G sat behind her pacemaker and had an easy run.The final time difference does give Galikova the edge but then i think she is also G1 class.
5 As  a Republican I say "Boll**ks to Monarchs"
6. Recital, Seville, Pour Moi, Native Khan plus possible dark horses does not add up to 2/1 a/p being a value back in my book.

Summarizing all this ... Sandown has backed Pour Moi for the Derby hoping this is a much better French dart than the massive bet he had on lucky French 2000 Guineas winner American Post the Derby who was stuffed into 6th was never going to stay the mile and a half.  Frankel will.

American Post was apparently 'value'.

eric-banana

I back approx 6 losers out of every 10 bets I place so picking out one of those from several years back is about as relevant to this discussion as saying, for the sake of argument, all of the other Derby losers I backed. More relevant would be to point to all the Derby winners I've backed over the past near 40 years and the amount that I've made from that.  But that is still not really relevant to the debate. However, I can see from the way that you emit verbal diarrhea over as many threads as you can that you have little talent for argument, logic or listening to others views from which you might learn something.

Frankel won't stay. He barely stays a mile. 7f imo is his optimum trip but his class brings him through. If Henry was ever going to run him in the derby he would not have instructed to kick on and pretty much sprint most horses out of the race before tiring in the final f. He should have been trying to settle him if Derby was the plan. If Frankel kicked on in the Derby he would be paddling after a mile. I think 4 furlongs would be enough for the likes of Carlton House and Seville to stay on and go past.

Sandown

I'm happy with my standards for Saint-Cloud and on final times I have Pour Moi 8lbs higher than Galikova.

Figgis

PM ran 10f in 123.02 averaging 12.30 secs p.f

G ran 10.5f in 128.0 averaging 12.12 secs p.f.That's 1.8 secs diff at 10f roughly 9 lengths or say 15lbs.

Even allowing for the 7lbs wfa how do you get PM 8lbs in front of G?

Sandown

That is of course assuming that those French distances are correct. My standards are based on actual final times recorded, which are then compared to the ability/form of the runners.

7 lbs sex allowance even

Something wrong here, Figgis. 110 yards equates to around 6 scs which is what you get.Even a blind man could tell whether the starting gate is further back or not unless they are on separate chutes. Do you know if this is the case? Otherwise how could they get the distance description wrong if its 100 yds further back. Makes no sense.

Figgis

Mystery solved. I've just checked the videos for both races ...and they seem to start from EXACTLY the same point and finish at the same post yet they use DIFFERENT distance descriptions. Beggars belief!!!

Well I would have expected them to notice the difference, but then again, I would've expected Longchamp to notice that their 7f distance is obviously somewhat shorter than that. All I can say is if you have studied the course results for a number of years it becomes apparent that the 10.5f times look much better than they are, if you assume the correct distances.