Horse Antepost
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BLUE JACK
Improved last year to be a high-class performer and denied clear chance on Chester reappearance when leaving stalls. Deserves another chance and fully capable of showing talent on much fairer track.
BARNEY MCGREW
Back down to the mark he won off here in 2009 and while he has never been the easiest to predict he has the talent to prove a huge threat. Murtagh one from four for stable this season and dangerous despite age.
JOHANNES
Won very well in this race at the start of last season off exactly the same mark as today under Hanagan. Looked unlucky last time out at Newmarket when hampered making good headway and another who cannot be dismissed here for local trainer/jockey combo.
SWISS FRANC
Highly talented at two; yet to live up to those lofty heights since and hard to know what to expect once more this time around. Booking of Fallon a positive but confidence can be placed more firmly with other candidates.
BEFORTYFOUR
Another who is an unknown quantity after coming back here from a long lay off. Once a improver from two to three he hasn't seen a racecourse since July 2009 and is probably best watched for the time being. Queally takes the ride though.
FITZ FLYER
No wins on turf is an issue but shaped full of promise on latest start when met trouble behind smart pair in Waffle and Hamish McGonagall. Can't rule out on first turf handicap run but set a tough assignment despite dropping to handy mark.
FALASTEEN
Can be quirky from the gates as was evident last time when jinking to the right. Did win at Epsom this season under today's jockey but 7lbs higher now and in tougher race. Might struggle if blowing the start once more.
COURAGEOUS
Only fourth start for current stable and the choice of Adrian today. Raced on unfavoured part of track on seasonal debut and sure to strip fitter now. Hold up tactics reignited spark last term once with Dandy and on workable mark at present; Can go well.
JUDGE ‘N JURY
Has run well on both visits to the track in the past and took big prize home at Ascot in 2009 off 7lbs higher than today. Not won since then though and efforts of late have left a lot to be desired. Fitter for first run of the season but hard to fancy.
DESERT PHANTOM
Probably would appreciate a bit more give in the ground than likely to get but looked an unlucky loser on a number of occasions last term; including here on Good ground. Gets on well with Martin Lane and chances off lowly mark (fifth in Grp1 as 2yo).
SECRET MILLIONAIRE
Dangerous to ignore as he makes the transition from three to four after improving at the end of last term on turf. Apprentice claim will make life easier and entry in the Dash at Epsom suggests well regarded. Chances.
ANCIENT CROSS
Consistent sort who just failed to get up on only try at this trip last October. That was in Softer ground though so whether the pace today might prove too sharp is open to debate. Hard to knock his attitude though.
HAZELRIGG
Hugely consistent sort last season and shot up the ratings as a result. No reason why he can't carry on improving off this kind of mark now and makes plenty of appeal. Has just needed the first run of the season before though.
RACY
Type to do well now after being gelded and bought over the Winter from Cheveley Park. From a family with some smart sprinters in it, the stable in flying form and jockey rides well here; Dash entry suggests leading claims today.
FOXY MUSIC
Won first time out last season but hard to fancy in this company off elevated mark, despite claim of apprentice. Pace of the race might catch him out and others have more appeal.
DUCHESS DORA
Lost way somewhat last year after promising start to the campaign but is now on a very winnable mark as a result. Supported at Beverley latest start but draw sealed her fate there. Deserves another chance and has run well here in the past.
SKYLLA
Bit to find on form with a lot of these and stable have stronger claims with Johannes. Struggled since encouraging two year old career and while there are probably races in him now as a four year old, it's unlikely to be today.
SOLAR SPIRIT
Hard to make a case for after only recording two wins in thirty-two starts and poor efforts last two occasions. Should find this grade too hot to handle and plenty of others with more talent than he has to offer.
TABARET
Quirky character who is very hard to predict and not getting any younger. A decent third in this last term off 8lbs higher, but that came off the back of a win. Not in same form now and no wins in this grade tempers enthusiasm.
SUMMARY
A mouth-watering clash in prospect down the Knavesmire with around half the field having leading claims; It’s a big ask to separate them. One would think Johannes should be thereabouts off the same mark as last year, but his price lets him down in terms of value in an ultra competitive affair such as this. Two that come to the fore are RACY and COURAGEOUS. Both are available a double figure prices and are the types to have improvement in them. The former is with a stable bang in form and is beautifully bred, related to talented sprinters. Having been gelded over the Winter he can run to a mark higher than his current one. The latter has always been eye-catching since being moved to Dandy’s yard and should strip fitter for his return to action. He should be running on at the end and is the choice of Adrian today.
SELECTIONS
Racy 1pt win @ 11/1
Courageous 1pt win @ 14/1
Improved last year to be a high-class performer and denied clear chance on Chester reappearance when leaving stalls. Deserves another chance and fully capable of showing talent on much fairer track.
BARNEY MCGREW
Back down to the mark he won off here in 2009 and while he has never been the easiest to predict he has the talent to prove a huge threat. Murtagh one from four for stable this season and dangerous despite age.
JOHANNES
Won very well in this race at the start of last season off exactly the same mark as today under Hanagan. Looked unlucky last time out at Newmarket when hampered making good headway and another who cannot be dismissed here for local trainer/jockey combo.
SWISS FRANC
Highly talented at two; yet to live up to those lofty heights since and hard to know what to expect once more this time around. Booking of Fallon a positive but confidence can be placed more firmly with other candidates.
BEFORTYFOUR
Another who is an unknown quantity after coming back here from a long lay off. Once a improver from two to three he hasn't seen a racecourse since July 2009 and is probably best watched for the time being. Queally takes the ride though.
FITZ FLYER
No wins on turf is an issue but shaped full of promise on latest start when met trouble behind smart pair in Waffle and Hamish McGonagall. Can't rule out on first turf handicap run but set a tough assignment despite dropping to handy mark.
FALASTEEN
Can be quirky from the gates as was evident last time when jinking to the right. Did win at Epsom this season under today's jockey but 7lbs higher now and in tougher race. Might struggle if blowing the start once more.
COURAGEOUS
Only fourth start for current stable and the choice of Adrian today. Raced on unfavoured part of track on seasonal debut and sure to strip fitter now. Hold up tactics reignited spark last term once with Dandy and on workable mark at present; Can go well.
JUDGE ‘N JURY
Has run well on both visits to the track in the past and took big prize home at Ascot in 2009 off 7lbs higher than today. Not won since then though and efforts of late have left a lot to be desired. Fitter for first run of the season but hard to fancy.
DESERT PHANTOM
Probably would appreciate a bit more give in the ground than likely to get but looked an unlucky loser on a number of occasions last term; including here on Good ground. Gets on well with Martin Lane and chances off lowly mark (fifth in Grp1 as 2yo).
SECRET MILLIONAIRE
Dangerous to ignore as he makes the transition from three to four after improving at the end of last term on turf. Apprentice claim will make life easier and entry in the Dash at Epsom suggests well regarded. Chances.
ANCIENT CROSS
Consistent sort who just failed to get up on only try at this trip last October. That was in Softer ground though so whether the pace today might prove too sharp is open to debate. Hard to knock his attitude though.
HAZELRIGG
Hugely consistent sort last season and shot up the ratings as a result. No reason why he can't carry on improving off this kind of mark now and makes plenty of appeal. Has just needed the first run of the season before though.
RACY
Type to do well now after being gelded and bought over the Winter from Cheveley Park. From a family with some smart sprinters in it, the stable in flying form and jockey rides well here; Dash entry suggests leading claims today.
FOXY MUSIC
Won first time out last season but hard to fancy in this company off elevated mark, despite claim of apprentice. Pace of the race might catch him out and others have more appeal.
DUCHESS DORA
Lost way somewhat last year after promising start to the campaign but is now on a very winnable mark as a result. Supported at Beverley latest start but draw sealed her fate there. Deserves another chance and has run well here in the past.
SKYLLA
Bit to find on form with a lot of these and stable have stronger claims with Johannes. Struggled since encouraging two year old career and while there are probably races in him now as a four year old, it's unlikely to be today.
SOLAR SPIRIT
Hard to make a case for after only recording two wins in thirty-two starts and poor efforts last two occasions. Should find this grade too hot to handle and plenty of others with more talent than he has to offer.
TABARET
Quirky character who is very hard to predict and not getting any younger. A decent third in this last term off 8lbs higher, but that came off the back of a win. Not in same form now and no wins in this grade tempers enthusiasm.
SUMMARY
A mouth-watering clash in prospect down the Knavesmire with around half the field having leading claims; It’s a big ask to separate them. One would think Johannes should be thereabouts off the same mark as last year, but his price lets him down in terms of value in an ultra competitive affair such as this. Two that come to the fore are RACY and COURAGEOUS. Both are available a double figure prices and are the types to have improvement in them. The former is with a stable bang in form and is beautifully bred, related to talented sprinters. Having been gelded over the Winter he can run to a mark higher than his current one. The latter has always been eye-catching since being moved to Dandy’s yard and should strip fitter for his return to action. He should be running on at the end and is the choice of Adrian today.
SELECTIONS
Racy 1pt win @ 11/1
Courageous 1pt win @ 14/1
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Good luck VK. Agree about Johannes price, plus at this trip I think he needs a scorching pace and everything to drop right for him. Also think Courageous might be better at 6f than 5f. Thought Duchess Dora was eye-catching from the worst draw at Beverley on return. Down another lb and has a decent claimer aboard, she's the one for me.
Duchess Dora 1pt win @ 11/1
Duchess Dora 1pt win @ 11/1
Can't back Johannes at that price for all he must go well.
BARNEY MCGREW for me.
Maybe save on Courageous.
BARNEY MCGREW for me.
Maybe save on Courageous.
Best of luck VK.
Here's my blog effort today.
Good morning at this early hour !
Hoping to go one better than yesterdays 1.30 today.
A cracking 5f sprint to start the day and although not the most original of selections Duchess Dora has to be the first choice. She is clearly well handicapped and was an eyecatcher at Beverley on her reappearance from a tricky draw. She has ran well off a break before with figures of 321 prior to her Beverley run. Her second start figures read 114. She's ran three times at York and has figures of 3/3 over the C/D.She normally races close to the pace which is no bad thing here and looks drawn near the likely pacesetters in the race in 3.The three previous winners of this race have been drawn 1,3 and 4.
The other one I like who may well get the run of the race from out front is Judge N Jury from stall 11.
He should be better for the run at Goodwood where the saddle slipped and Joe Fanning is booked who rode him last year here when a good 2nd to Hamish McGonagall off 95. He has won five of his eight races in fields of 15 or more runners and placed twice as well.
His other try at the C/D was in this race when a fair 5th off 99 when trying to give Johannes 4lb.
He races off 91 today and could be hard to catch.
DUCHESS DORA 2 POINTS WIN AT 8/1 (BOG) (A rare win bet from me !)
JUDGE N JURY 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)
Here's my blog effort today.
Good morning at this early hour !
Hoping to go one better than yesterdays 1.30 today.
A cracking 5f sprint to start the day and although not the most original of selections Duchess Dora has to be the first choice. She is clearly well handicapped and was an eyecatcher at Beverley on her reappearance from a tricky draw. She has ran well off a break before with figures of 321 prior to her Beverley run. Her second start figures read 114. She's ran three times at York and has figures of 3/3 over the C/D.She normally races close to the pace which is no bad thing here and looks drawn near the likely pacesetters in the race in 3.The three previous winners of this race have been drawn 1,3 and 4.
The other one I like who may well get the run of the race from out front is Judge N Jury from stall 11.
He should be better for the run at Goodwood where the saddle slipped and Joe Fanning is booked who rode him last year here when a good 2nd to Hamish McGonagall off 95. He has won five of his eight races in fields of 15 or more runners and placed twice as well.
His other try at the C/D was in this race when a fair 5th off 99 when trying to give Johannes 4lb.
He races off 91 today and could be hard to catch.
DUCHESS DORA 2 POINTS WIN AT 8/1 (BOG) (A rare win bet from me !)
JUDGE N JURY 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)
Whilst I can see the appeal of Duchess Dora, John Quinn's record of 1 winner from his last 40 runners is off putting for me.
Watching brief for me with a close eye on Fitz Flyer who the trainer will likely get a win from a some point.
Also Racy, he may win today first time out but if not he's one who is sure to land a big pot at some point.
Also Racy, he may win today first time out but if not he's one who is sure to land a big pot at some point.
Great as always VK. I also fancy the Duchess to go close and Skylla to place.
Leo, I once was put off Anglezarke at this meeting a few years ago because Tim Easterby had an even worse record than that.
I notice Mr Segal has picked Johannes as one of his selections however I think stall 19 is a problem. In the last 15 years only 3 horses have won from double figure draws, 1 in 10 and 2 in 15.
Leo, I once was put off Anglezarke at this meeting a few years ago because Tim Easterby had an even worse record than that.
I notice Mr Segal has picked Johannes as one of his selections however I think stall 19 is a problem. In the last 15 years only 3 horses have won from double figure draws, 1 in 10 and 2 in 15.
Michrich,
Some info:
The winners of the last 10 big field 5Furlong handicaps ran at York are detailed below.
It may be stating the obvious, but with the exception of course specialist Hamish McGonagall, every winner has been drawn either in the four lowest or four highest stalls.
Nick Mordin used to have a theory that sprinters are at an advantage drawn near a rail as it helps them run straighter. Perhaps this could be given as evidence to support that theory.
8th Oct 2010 – Haajes stall 20 of 17
9th Aug 2010 – Monsieur Joe Stall 2 of 16
11th June 2010 – Hotham Stall 2 of 14
22nd May 2010 - Hamish McGonagall Stall 11 of 16
13th May 2010 – Johannes Stall 4 of 16
9th Oct 09 – Russian Spirit – Stall 2 of 18
21st August 09 – Borderlescott Stall 2 of 16
20th August 09 – Noble Storm Stall 13 of 15
30th May 09 – Ishetoo Stall 15 of 14
14th May 09 – Internationaldebut Stall 3 of 15
Good luck with Duchess Dora. She is well drawn (as detailed above) and has great course form. I think she has a good chance, but when compiling my 'tissue' I lengthened her price due to the trainer's form. It may well be folly to do so, and won't be the first time I've got such things badly wrong.
Some info:
The winners of the last 10 big field 5Furlong handicaps ran at York are detailed below.
It may be stating the obvious, but with the exception of course specialist Hamish McGonagall, every winner has been drawn either in the four lowest or four highest stalls.
Nick Mordin used to have a theory that sprinters are at an advantage drawn near a rail as it helps them run straighter. Perhaps this could be given as evidence to support that theory.
8th Oct 2010 – Haajes stall 20 of 17
9th Aug 2010 – Monsieur Joe Stall 2 of 16
11th June 2010 – Hotham Stall 2 of 14
22nd May 2010 - Hamish McGonagall Stall 11 of 16
13th May 2010 – Johannes Stall 4 of 16
9th Oct 09 – Russian Spirit – Stall 2 of 18
21st August 09 – Borderlescott Stall 2 of 16
20th August 09 – Noble Storm Stall 13 of 15
30th May 09 – Ishetoo Stall 15 of 14
14th May 09 – Internationaldebut Stall 3 of 15
Good luck with Duchess Dora. She is well drawn (as detailed above) and has great course form. I think she has a good chance, but when compiling my 'tissue' I lengthened her price due to the trainer's form. It may well be folly to do so, and won't be the first time I've got such things badly wrong.
Cheers Leo. Yes, I think that theory is in betting for living. Just to throw a spanner in the mix I'm pretty certain that in the Monsieur Joe race they moved across to the stands rail and MJ raced down the middle of the track. I backed the shorted headed second at 20/1
Michrich,
Aye, I think I remember that race. Nightmare!
Perhaps being drawn on the flanks means you miss any 'traffic' and its easier to challenge (like Delegator yesterday). I'm not sure why it is, but the historical facts speak for themselves. It will be interesting to see what happens at this meeting as I've also hard are good look at the 3:35 tomorrow where 20 line up.
Aye, I think I remember that race. Nightmare!
Perhaps being drawn on the flanks means you miss any 'traffic' and its easier to challenge (like Delegator yesterday). I'm not sure why it is, but the historical facts speak for themselves. It will be interesting to see what happens at this meeting as I've also hard are good look at the 3:35 tomorrow where 20 line up.
Yes the 6F sprint tomorrow is usually an interesting race and has thrown up Borderlescott and Soldier's Tale in recent years.
Your close to the rail theory might be standing up even further as I have the last 15 winners of this as
11/13
15/16
12/16
13/13
7/17*
1/19
12/14
6/8
6/13*
6/20*
12/15
2/15
6/13*
2/16
2/9
With only 4 not conforming to that stat.
Your close to the rail theory might be standing up even further as I have the last 15 winners of this as
11/13
15/16
12/16
13/13
7/17*
1/19
12/14
6/8
6/13*
6/20*
12/15
2/15
6/13*
2/16
2/9
With only 4 not conforming to that stat.
Had shortlisted 4 for this
Fitz Flyer
Courageous
Duchess Dora
Desert Phantom
But gone with Duchess Dora E/W @ 11/1
Looks handicapped to win a race like this claimer on board takes another few lbs off.
Tbh this race is a massive head scratcher.
GL
Fitz Flyer
Courageous
Duchess Dora
Desert Phantom
But gone with Duchess Dora E/W @ 11/1
Looks handicapped to win a race like this claimer on board takes another few lbs off.
Tbh this race is a massive head scratcher.
GL
Pah! Stall 9!
Racy very unlucky, but probably wasn't the only one. More races to be won with Racy but the cat is out of the bag now!
Racy very unlucky, but probably wasn't the only one. More races to be won with Racy but the cat is out of the bag now!
Racy was very unlucky :( I haven't had much luck at all so far this year infact. Five sprint previews, 3rd, 3rd, N/R, N/R, 3rd
Ah well, that's the way it goes sometimes. It will turn around soon :)
Ah well, that's the way it goes sometimes. It will turn around soon :)
You have to say that Duchess Dora ran a fine race from its draw
Got to be the Dash next I would have thought. Perfect prep race and goes there with a live chance given a good draw.
Our Jonathan looks interesting tomorrow with some predicated rain about. Not sure he has a good draw though .. better to be drawn high near that rail .. What ya reckon ?
Stall 4 of 19 lands the 3:35, fitting the 'stats' listed above. Useful to remember when looking at future 5f sprints at York.
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