Is Long Run the real deal?

Well Kauto and Denman have hardly boosted the form and it must be said Long Run won the Gold Cup at the end of an era which is probably the easiest time to do so.

2 recent examples would be Hors La Loi III and Sublimity. It must be extremely doubtful either would have won a Champion Hurdle had they been born a couple of years earlier. When Istabraq and even Hardy Eustace were in their primes they were both far better horses.

So in affect Long Run has won a very poor Gold Cup but that's not to say he can't win another one or even 2.

Much depends on the young brigade. Someone said the other day Paul Nichols doesn't have to worry about Kauto and Denman being past thier best, he's got Master Minded to fill the gap.

There's more chance of Kauto coming back to his best than Master Minded getting 3 miles let along getting 3m2f round the toughest course in the country.

Long Run himself seems to have improved since coming back from Yogi Bresner's and jumped realy well in both the King George and the Gold Cup but then again he was never under any pressure.

It depends on Long Run himself if he is going to continue to jump consistently well but what's more important is how will he handle the up and coming young horses who are very likely to give him more to think about that a couple of OAP's past their best.

I certainly wouldn't give up on Imperial Commander yet he ran way below his best and could easily bounce back

Time For Rupert was a huge disappointment at Cheltenham but again ran too badly to be true. He certainly gave the impression prior to that the big time was beckoning.

However the main danger to Long Run next season could come from Captain Chris.

He look near usless in his first couple of races. He showed signs of improvement when he finished 2nd at Sandown to Medermit but was hardly crying out Gold Cup. Then came the Pendil at Kempton, not much of a race you might think but he looked awesome that day. He traveled better than ever, jumped brilliantly and looked a totally different horse to the one who had blundered his way round Sandown.

So he took his time to get there but his performance when beating Finnian's Rainbow in the Arkle was straight out of the top drawer. Make no mistake Finnian's rainbow is one helluva horse and he made mincemeat of him at a trip which is surely nowhere near his best.

Yet again he ran at 2 miles and never looked like getting beat at Punchestowns.

I reckon we have a real star on our hands in Captain Chris and once he's stepped up to 3 miles he could easily knock Long Run of his pedestal.
His table companion is no slouch but this horse looks an exceptional recruit so I wouldn't be too confident about Long Run winning another King George let alone 3 Gold Cups as some have suggested.

I always considered Kauto Star as an exceptional chaser and even said he was the best since Arkle way before he won his 2nd Gold Cup. I just couldn't say Long Run gives me that same impression that he's some kind of superstar.

He a decent chaser , has a few quirks but IMO he's no Kauto Star and I expect his reign to be short lived.

In the last few years we've got used to looking at this through the prism of Denman and Kauto - but they are utterly exceptional horses. Most Gold Cup winners are not like them and it could be a mistake to expect another horse to dominate the division so soon. Only 5 horses have won more than one Gold Cup since the war.

What I find hard to judge about LR is the balance between his age and his racing. He is very heavily raced already for a 6 year old (18 starts, 10 chases). Gold Cup winning chasers usually have a limited shelflife unless they are supertstars like Kauto or Dessie. Even Best Mate's 3rd was only his 13th chase. However, they're usually 6-8 when they get started. So LR could stay at the top for another 2-3 years because he's so young, or could drop off after another season as lots of racing takes it's toll. I'd be surprised if he wins the 2013 Gold Cup.

I'd also question to some extent the form of what Long Run has achieved. He got battered in his RSA, albeit with legitimate excuses. He got battered in the Paddy Power off a generous looking handicap mark. He won the King George in a superficially impressive performance but he beat a 2 1/2 miler and a sick Kauto Star. My gut feeling standing at Kempton Park was that the form was doubtful. Then he won the Gold Cup, following which the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all got crushed in their next races. He's the worthy staying champion this year, but I question if his form is truly worth a rating of 182.

All that said, I didn't think this years RSA form looked great (more stamina than speed?), but it's hard to tell until they get into open company. Captain Chris has a lot to prove in going from an Arkle horse to a Gold Cup horse and there's not much sign yet he'll stay 3m 2 at Cheltenham (another Sizing Europe?) - he has something to prove, anyway. I'd be astonished if Master Minded wins a Gold Cup - must be a doubtful stayer and is another one with atoo many miles on the clock. Same for Imperial Commander who is surely now too old.

I'm more interested in Weapons Amnesty and Burton Port as the major challengers to Long Run for 2012. We know from the Hennessey Burton Port improved a lot last winter and a stiff 3m 2+ at Cheltenham looks to suit him down to the ground. Weapons Amnesty won a red hot RSA last time we saw him, hacking all over Long Run in the process. Long Run's improved 20 lbs since then, but WA might well improve too.

Overall, Long Run is a worthy favourite - 7/2 looks about right for the 2012 Gold Cup - but I think he's far from impregnable.

have to agree with you here rondetto although i was all over long run in gold cup nothing impressed me more than captain chris in the arkle and i also think he will be awsome over further, 3m+ dont know if hobbs will campaign him for the gold cup or champ chase but king george was mentioned so may be gold cup .

looking back on the gold cup i must admit turning for home kauto looked to be going the best and was a bit worried when long run came under pressure,  and could see captain chris cruising 2 out while the rest are starting to feel the heat . at the prices i would much rather be on capt chris for the gold cup but as its so far away i would wait untill about november before an ap bet .

I don't want to derail the thread from being about Long Run, but what makes you both think Capt Chris is going to stay a hard 3m 2f next year, other than Hobbs saying he'll be aimed at the King George?

I wonder if the Gold Cup will take its toll. Both Kauto and Denman looked anything but themselves since (however at their ages maybe thats not a surprise). China Rock & Imperial Commander also pulled up in the race. Run in a very fast time on better ground than usual. Could just be it leaves a mark on all those involved at the business end. Long Run however does have age on his side, which is a good thing as I think someone mentioned before that his family don't usually do much after the age of 7. So as good as he is, it may be short lived.

Thanks for the replies, really interesting read.

I think taking any skinny prices about Long Run for the KG just now is nuts as there is so many question marks over every peice of his form.

I feel there are gonna be a handful of high class chasers next year and I'm not entirely convinced Long Run will have the beating of them.

Burton Port, WA, Diamond Harry, Pandorama (ground dependent obviously!) and possibly even Mon Parrain.

Resnar - Very interesting points. Re Long Run's family not doing much after 7, I hadn't spotted that, but you look to be correct. Big Buck's is an exeption - but maybe this is the time to take him on as well?

Bhudda - Diamond Harry looks like an autumn, flat track horse to me. Mon Parrain looked like a world beater at Sandown and I was thinking the same as you then, but he found less than nothing of the bridle at Aintree in a race he looked for all the world like winning. He couldn't do that and win a Gold Cup. I still like Pandorama too, but, based on this year, he's not going to get near Long Run unless the ground is very soft indeed (and LR seems to be very well suited by soft ground anyway - look at his record in France).

It will be interesting and exciting to see how the second season chasers progress (it always is) - the Gold Cup is won by one of them something like one year in two.

I think Captain Chris is certainly bred to get three miles, the extra yardage of the Gold Cup you never really know until you try, but he should get it.
His sire, King's Theatre, can certainly get stayers (Whichita Lineman, Miss Mitch etc.) and gives that touch of class being a son of Sadler's Wells. His distaff line has a quality NH damsire in Strong Gale who can certainly impose stamina, and also probably gives Captain Chris the natural jumping ability needed for the top level.

Regarding Mon Parrain, id say that no one fancied LR after he was beaten in a handicap either and its interesting that Nicholls didnt know how he got beaten maybe he needs longer between his races, either way ive never seen a 5yo that jumps that well

strontium - with re. Diamond Harry.

I tend to agree, so could it be argued he will be suited to the King George?

Zilzal - fair enough. He looked sensaional at Sandown, although his handicap mark was clearly laughable. He's an exciting horse.

Bhudda - Yes. Though he's never run right handed which is always a doubt. Is it just that he hasn't, or is there a reason he hasn't?

Don't think Long Run's GC was as good as I first thought

Denman and Kauto did them all for speed at the top of the hill (iirc) and in my opinion tired up the hill while the younger Long Run kept on going, giving the appearance that LR has found an extra gear.
It's interesting how the horses from 4th down to Neptune Collognes who finished 8th all have race comments suggesting they stayed on again.


Don't want to take anything away from Denners and KS who ran belters, and ran poorly nto as the Gold Cup was a brutal race and they are 11 year olds now, but that is the way I see it. Despite tat, it was still a great race imo

If you take the form literally Long Run has beaten What a Friend 11 lengths, a good horse in his own right on his day so it's fair to say that Long Run is clearly useful

However...

If Weapon's Amnesty can return as good as he was before his injury, I think he can confirm RSA form. big IF though

Captain Chris obviously interesting, not sure the 2 mile novice were much cop but looks like a step up will suit for him and the Arkle hasn't been the worst race when producing GC winners

Don't rate the 3m novices that highly, so at the moment it's between LR, WA and CC for me

will take another look at Mon Parrain

i really like captain chris, him winning the arkle wud be like peddlers cross winning the champion hurdle in many ways. i think diamond harry will handle cheltenham ok, its an unpopular view but the rsa is easily forgotten for me, its a race i dont like at all. i think mon parrain possibly has achieved very little, beat trees at sandown and his run in the topham was good, but worrying he found nothing. hes an excellent jumper though, i wouldnt consider him a gc horse though. weapons amnesty will surely go well, as with burton port, whos improving all the time. quito de la roque could be ok, but i doubt hes up to winning a gc, not this year anyhow and not ever, unless he improves next year at the same rate he did last. this years gc form has hardly been advertised as being rock solid, but long run is surely on the improve too. if denman or kauto run, nicholls wants a head but, and id more than gladly give it to him

The question is being asked will Captain Chris stay.

Obvious question since he won the Arkle but don't forget why he ran in the race.

Hobbs initially didn't intend running Captain Chris in the Arkle.

When he won the Pendil over 2m5f he gave the distinct impression the further they went the better he went.

Hobbs had said he thought the longer race at the festival would be more to his liking along with Wishfull Thinking but RJ convinced him that
the horse although suited by a longer trip had enough class and speed to contest the Arkle.

RJ one the day and was spot on but his performance screamed out stayer rather than speedster.

His win in the Ryanair again was more workmanlike than speedy. RJ had eased of the peddle but when the danger loomed he knew the horse would keep finding and he did.

His breeding the way he runs and finishes his races has stayer written all over it.

Well at least that's my opinion and I'm sticking to it[;)]

Yes he is the real deal, believe me!

Fair enough Rondetto, and good point about Wishfull Thinking and why CC ran in the Arkle. However, it's tough to read too much into any 3 runner race where you go off 2/5  favourite (Pendil) and CC has been beaten on his other 3 tries over 17f by horses that are good but by no means outstanding (Medermit, Ghizao + Silviniaco Conti over hurles). That said, he was finishing best in the Scilly Isles which looks a good pointer for stamina. He's also got stamina influences on both sides of his pedigree (though it surprises me that King's Theatre's best offspring tend to be 2-2 1/2 milers). Will be interesting to see - as I've said before, my perception is that the 3 m novices weren't great this year so there's an opportunity for CC there. If he doesn't stay he can also go to the Queen Mother where Arkle winners have a terrific record.

I agree normally it is tough to take much out of a 3 runner race but TBH I wasn't a fan of the horse at all until the Pendil. There was just something about the way he handled himself that day that that made me think I was wrong about him and had me saying to myself, this is one class horse.

Unfortunately by that time I was so far up Finnian's Rainbows backside in bets the inspiration was all too late Must admit though I doubt if I would have changed my mind as I was totally sold that FR was the better horse.

One things for sure it's going to be very interesting if he does take on Long Run in the King George. Be even more fun if they found out something had been amiss with Kauto and fixed it but that's getting into Disneyland stuff so I reckon it's time for my nap