Happy days.

That really cheered me up. last to first. makes up for my busted antepost on Dialed In.

well done Beryl,ELG,Sandown/Headmaster, Jamesp.

Sandown
31 May 11 11:02
Joined:
06 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 783 | Blogger: Sandown's blog
Why worry about comments made by claire balding when Fabre said after PM's Epsom gallop that all was fine?

Fabre, who has run nine horses in the Derby and finished no closer than fifth, was unperturbed."He sweats every day like that. He enjoyed going down hill, he enjoyed the turn, he enjoyed everything.

He later described the horse as medium seized, effective on fast and soft ground and well-balanced.

Personally, if there is a worry, then it would be the inexperienced jockey over-doing the waiting tactics and doing a Dancing Brave.


Phew!

bestmate/beryl/headmaster/jair

yippee..
20/1 was a steal.

I do think that Moore was a bit unlucky on Carlton House, but Pour Moi a  worthy winner and a decent hose.

Not sure it was a great Derby and would not want to be taking too short a price about PM for the Arc

Phew indeed.  I thought he'd given himself far too much to do and that Joseph O'Brien had ridden them to sleep on board Memphis Tennessee, but the pace was faster than it looked (the winning time was much faster than the Oaks) and this played into the hands of the horses ridden with more restraint.  Memphis Tennessee did remarkably well to hold on to fourth and is clearly a colt to follow.  As for Pour Moi, the comparison with Dancing Brave is premature, but if he can show the same acceleration to win the Arc the comparison will be an apt one.

* Ryan Moore panicked, imo.

LOL Ryan. pretty sure if you sky+ed it you can go back and find the exact moment he sh*t himself.

I'll be the first to say this but -

This does not look a great Derby. Recital and Seville obviously never ran the races and Treasure is pretty much proven as less than brilliant.

The winner and Carlton House can definitely run better but they'll certainly need to.

my guess as the the winner's rating 122p - pretty modest stuff.

Reminds me of Lammtarra's Derby - form on the day nothing special but something about the way he won, that burst of speed right at the end, that suggested he was special.

well done all you winners, great call beryl, i took some 8/1 on him but alas i layed most off at around 6/1

well done beryl

and nice to see a bit of restraint when your boat comes in.

now that's classy

It appears I have been congratulated by a couple of people!

I'll have to come clean and say that he was never more than a saver for me! And I haven't 'cleared 3.25k'.

C'est la vie.

Great race for the neutral  and with my sports hat on it was a thrilling renewal.  Sadly my betting hat isn't the same as my sports hat. He has to be a good one to win like that too.

figgis

I agree that the winner and the third actually are a bit better than the literal form. However I am of the view that it must have been a moderate race as Derbies go. Look at the distances back to the 7th Horse, Vadamar. The rider felt he needed softer ground and he as only juts behind Recital who again failed to show his very best by hanging into the rail.

Now Recital and Vadamar in finishing 6th and 7th, were only 6 and 7 lbs behind the winner. I suppose they could have run as might as 114 or 115 making the rating of the winner about 122, but this is, as I say, pretty modest stuff.

You can look at the winner's performance in  2 sways. He can either be viewed as very exceptional because he was able to pass 13 others in the last half mile, or you can argue that it couldn't have been that great a Derby if there was nothing in the race that could make the most of the considerable start Pou Moi decided to give all the others after they turned for home.

Of course all of this is academic; that is until one of these horses runs against good older horses - like Workforce, Sarafina and Await The Dawn, all of whom seem likely to be able to run around or greater than 130.

I am not sure the 3yo's are very brilliant, and personally would expect the older horses to be able to see them off.

COT

Don't you think that is pretty much par for the course for the Derby, though? It either throws up a 3yo head and shoulders above its peers or one marginally better than an average bunch. I would say very rarely are the beaten horses top class (Dancing Brave obviously excepted), unless they didn't stay. Occasionally there are some that improve afterwards, like St Jovite and Alamshar.

On my figures this year's beaten horses ran as quick, or quicker, than in recent Derbys. It's not unusual for one or two of O'Brien's seemingly unfancied runners to run out of their skin on the big day.

Fair point about the tactics A_T. I do think Pour Moi could be exceptional but as I say he really only has one chance to show, it in the Arc, before he's retired. Mind you with the quality of the older horses this year the Arc could be the best since 1986 and we all know what happened then[;)]

COT

my guess as the the winner's rating 122p - pretty modest stuff.


IMO, your rating estimate demonstrates the limitations of a simple collateral rating methodology in as good an example as we are likely to see.

Surely your own eyes tell you that we saw an exceptional performance yesterday? Not since Dancing Brave have we seen a horse make up that amount of ground. Nevertheless, the fact that he won is as much luck as judgement. DB was clearly a better horse than Sharastani and  PM is way ahead of the other horses in the field.

Fabre has said that Peintre Celebre was the fastest horse he has trained - some claim - and that horse had exceptional acceleration. Fabre compared PM favourable with PC and stressed how rare it is to find a horse that can accelerate twice in a race.

On my projections based on the sectionals, PM ran to 133 with the second running to 119. I expect him to beat that rating as he strengthens.

wd op.

Just uploaded screenshot of my book. First bet 1000 @ 25 Frankel placed minutes after his maiden win. He would have walked the Derby as I said at the time. Something we now know to obviously be true. Henry Cecil did his best for the horse who could have won any Classic at any trip. After he missed the race my book was chasing but I made a profit as specified on this thread. Amongst my bets on Pour Moi was an initial 500 @ 20s.

You must have been cr@pping yourself when Memphis Tee, then Treasure Beach, went for home, old boy?  I had them both 'covered', natch

Cant find the screenshot has it been authorised, never uploaded one before?