Pour Moi for the Derby - 20s good value?

Gravity-defying book management there, eric.

You da man.

Enron(nap)

Words fail me.

Reeks of desperation/saving face.

Come on sint!
If you back everything you always win...

mayweather / eric, your a james hunt.

That is literally what he is saying Jair

He has the first and second favourite, plus all of the Aidan Obrien runners. Believe in coincidence per chance ??

Whilst he reckons hes got double figs for Carlton House by the time hes taken non runners ks down the swannee & stakes on 10 others he will in reality have backed it @ odds on.
But fair play to the ante post guru Eric if you bet every horse in the race your bound to get the winner.
Must take an abundance of skill(bullshyte) to be so great @ this ante post lark

13 May 11 12:00 Sounds from that quote from the trainer like he wont be turning up.
Rate reply: 
eric_morris When: 13 May 11 12:07 Meanwhile, doubts have surfaced over whether French challenger, Pour Moi - as low as 8-1 for the Investec-supported race - will make it to Epsom.

"I will talk to the owners and make a decision in the next week, but the Dante winner was impressive," said Pour Moi's trainer, Andre Fabre.
. eric_morris : 13 May 11 12:08 Fabre is no mug he knows how good Carlton House looked there.





13th May & poor old Eric still reckoned Frankel would turn up & Pour Moi wouldnt
Cant even get what will run right never mind picking a winner.

Wasn't Fabre bullish, particularly for a man who says very little to the Press.

The one comment that stood out to me was when he was asked about tactics, he said that he had just one, to come from last to first.

I'm just talking out loud here, and I am probably nearer wrong than right, but I can't help thinking that he's Coolmore's number 1 pick and therefore his requirements will be paramount when deciding tactics. Therefore, the last thing he needs is a large field.

Now who has the most horses declared ?

He needs a good pace, a Dante type pace would be no good to him - see his first run this season.

I'm starting to believe that Coolmore may just declare him and a pacemaker to run on Saturday week, thus ensuring a strong pace and a relatively small field - optimum conditions for Coolmore's best hope.

I know, I know, I know, this might be wishful thinking on my part, but that comment has really got me thinking.

Pour Moi may be considered number one contender for Coolmore but I consider it highly unlikely that they would just run him and a single pacemaker.

Coolmore have bred and made ready several legitimate contenders for Epsom and I cannot see them leaving them at home in their boxes at Ballydoyle or sending them to Chantilly unless it is the right option for the horse.Traditionally they have run the horses they feel entitled to line up.

Wishful thinking indeed on my part. Ballydoyle looking to run 4 including Recital and Seville.

very weak this morning dropped from 5.2 to near 7 , and no money wanting to back him

Vadamar's connections have concluded there were extenuating circumstances that contributed to his third place finish in the Greff and he will run in Saturday's Derby, subject to a workout early this week.

Interesting...I wonder what those "extentuating circumstances" were..

roderic still in

The trainer was a definitely a little quick to rule him out, S&C.  you could read that as a positive as they were obviously very disappointed and must think he's a very good horse.  He lost a shoe before the race and didn't have the clearest run during it.  Maybe further excuses have emerged, too.  Of those priced up at 20/1 and bigger, he's the most interesting horse by far imo.

Of only two jockey bookings showing, Weatherbys site has Fallon down for Native Khan. Wonder if Dunlop just shoved it in and crossed his fingers or if Fallon has confirmed?

Fallon has confirmed - for Recital apparently

Fellon on Recital.

No Derby ride for Heffernan !!

Colm on Treasure Beach.

Joseph on Memphis Tennesse.

theyve gave heffernan the ride on misty for me in the oaks instead.

Pour Moi: on her Racing Post video, Clare Balding says he did not come down the hill very well (although she does go on to say it is a relative thing).

Unfortunately the Racing Post video of his gallop shows only the last furlong so we cannot see for ourselves.

After Pour Moi's last win, Fabre said :-

"He was a little green around the bend and didn't really handle it".

Why worry about comments made by claire balding when Fabre said after PM's Epsom gallop that all was fine?

Fabre, who has run nine horses in the Derby and finished no closer than fifth, was unperturbed."He sweats every day like that. He enjoyed going down hill, he enjoyed the turn, he enjoyed everything.

He later described the horse as medium seized, effective on fast and soft ground and well-balanced.

Personally, if there is a worry, then it would be the inexperienced jockey over-doing the waiting tactics and doing a Dancing Brave.

Jockey is a minor worry alright, he's undoubtedly very talented but with such an idiosyncratic track some more experience there would be a bonus.
Still though, anyone on at or around the time Beryl started this thread has a decent bet to look forward to.

I wouldn't be worried about the jockey - he looks top draw from what I've seen of him.

Pour Moi given the Magniers first colours per both the Racing Post and Sporting Life website. Very interesting, particularly as he has only won a Group 2 whilst Recital as already won a Group 1.

Perceived pecking order, or I am reading too much into it?

Possibly too much.

i am of the view that this is not Aiden's year and that the Frenchies have the best form.

However while Magnier may share this opinion, he doesn't know any more than we do which of his horses is the best.

I don't like Recital in PINK!

There are 3 first colours; Magnier's, Tabor's and Smith's

WHy can't he wear one of these?

Sneaky, maybe

24 hours before we collect
I am in love with the French for now. 1-2 will do nicely

Kind of happy with Murtagh's ride there.

Was worried OBrien wont employ a pacemaker tomorrow and just send them out to ride their races but after today reckon he'll have to pick a sacrifical lamb to stop what happened today. Its cost them before in these races. cant afford it tomorrow.

Tabor very sweet on him there.

Well played lads.

Exceptional racehorse - came from last to first in the Derby. Incredible.

unclepuncle
When: 09 May 11 12:42
If he was declared a definite runner I'd have him as favourite right now before the Dante is run.

Excellent thread - well done to those who got on early[;)]

Hope you all won a few quid...my biggest ever win by a country mile!!

Will enjoy tonight, that's for sure!

What an amazing performance.  Even while watching the replay I can't believe how he's come from last to first and quickened again in the last 100 yards.  With that kind of acceleration he can go on and win a clutch more Group 1 races.  Magnifique!

Happy days.

That really cheered me up. last to first. makes up for my busted antepost on Dialed In.

Well done to Beryl and everyone else who backed the horse - a fantastic result for many of us! (Helps make up for that farcical Oaks yesterday.)

well done Beryl,ELG,Sandown/Headmaster, Jamesp.

Beryl, Jair, COT & HEADMASTER
enjoy Happy days [:D]indeed

Sandown
31 May 11 11:02
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06 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 783 | Blogger: Sandown's blog
Why worry about comments made by claire balding when Fabre said after PM's Epsom gallop that all was fine?

Fabre, who has run nine horses in the Derby and finished no closer than fifth, was unperturbed."He sweats every day like that. He enjoyed going down hill, he enjoyed the turn, he enjoyed everything.

He later described the horse as medium seized, effective on fast and soft ground and well-balanced.

Personally, if there is a worry, then it would be the inexperienced jockey over-doing the waiting tactics and doing a Dancing Brave.


Phew!

Brilliant performance what can you say, not the best result for me but cleared 3.25k profit on the race.

bestmate/beryl/headmaster/jair

yippee..
20/1 was a steal.

I do think that Moore was a bit unlucky on Carlton House, but Pour Moi a  worthy winner and a decent hose.

Not sure it was a great Derby and would not want to be taking too short a price about PM for the Arc

Didnt think he was going to win you know.

Joesph went sooooo unbelievably slow on Memphis Tennesse and PM was so far back. Some horse.

Phew indeed.  I thought he'd given himself far too much to do and that Joseph O'Brien had ridden them to sleep on board Memphis Tennessee, but the pace was faster than it looked (the winning time was much faster than the Oaks) and this played into the hands of the horses ridden with more restraint.  Memphis Tennessee did remarkably well to hold on to fourth and is clearly a colt to follow.  As for Pour Moi, the comparison with Dancing Brave is premature, but if he can show the same acceleration to win the Arc the comparison will be an apt one.

Are you saying you beforetimed for once, Cryoftruth ?

As for Carlton House, watch the side on view of the race, he panicked and kicked for home to soon. Ran a smashing race imo. Plenty of speed he has.

* Ryan Moore panicked, imo.

Sandown Joined: 06 Dec 01
Replies: 784 04 Jun 11 16:34   



Personally, if there is a worry, then it would be the inexperienced jockey over-doing the waiting tactics and doing a Dancing Brave.


Phew!

Thankfully there wasn't a Shahrastani in the field.

LOL Ryan. pretty sure if you sky+ed it you can go back and find the exact moment he sh*t himself.

He was swearing at someone after the race Elg. Think he knows he panicked a bit though and is lashing out.

I'll be the first to say this but -

This does not look a great Derby. Recital and Seville obviously never ran the races and Treasure is pretty much proven as less than brilliant.

The winner and Carlton House can definitely run better but they'll certainly need to.

my guess as the the winner's rating 122p - pretty modest stuff.

great call Beryl

Reminds me of Lammtarra's Derby - form on the day nothing special but something about the way he won, that burst of speed right at the end, that suggested he was special.

Little bet on Prairie Star tomorrow lads?

well done all you winners, great call beryl, i took some 8/1 on him but alas i layed most off at around 6/1

cryoftruth Joined: 22 Mar 04
Replies: 1305 04 Jun 11 17:00   

I'll be the first to say this but -

This does not look a great Derby. Recital and Seville obviously never ran the races and Treasure is pretty much proven as less than brilliant.

The winner and Carlton House can definitely run better but they'll certainly need to.

my guess as the the winner's rating 122p - pretty modest stuff.

Taking the winner's narrow winning performance literally, then I agree that it's not a brilliant performance. It is surely possible to mark it up, though, given the manner of the victory. As for it being a poor Derby on the whole, I don't see how the placed horses have run any worse than the standard of recent placed horses. F&G being a bit better than some of the others, such as At First Sight, Tartan Bearer, Eagle Mountain, Dragon Dancer, Walk In The Park.

well done beryl

and nice to see a bit of restraint when your boat comes in.

now that's classy

very well done beryl and anyother nice price winners...jock..pmsl...
took 7s arc st after.

It appears I have been congratulated by a couple of people!

I'll have to come clean and say that he was never more than a saver for me! And I haven't 'cleared 3.25k'.

C'est la vie.

Great race for the neutral  and with my sports hat on it was a thrilling renewal.  Sadly my betting hat isn't the same as my sports hat. He has to be a good one to win like that too.

eric_morris
04 Jun 11 16:38   

Brilliant performance what can you say, not the best result for me but cleared 3.25k profit on the race.


ROFL

figgis

I agree that the winner and the third actually are a bit better than the literal form. However I am of the view that it must have been a moderate race as Derbies go. Look at the distances back to the 7th Horse, Vadamar. The rider felt he needed softer ground and he as only juts behind Recital who again failed to show his very best by hanging into the rail.

Now Recital and Vadamar in finishing 6th and 7th, were only 6 and 7 lbs behind the winner. I suppose they could have run as might as 114 or 115 making the rating of the winner about 122, but this is, as I say, pretty modest stuff.

You can look at the winner's performance in  2 sways. He can either be viewed as very exceptional because he was able to pass 13 others in the last half mile, or you can argue that it couldn't have been that great a Derby if there was nothing in the race that could make the most of the considerable start Pou Moi decided to give all the others after they turned for home.

Of course all of this is academic; that is until one of these horses runs against good older horses - like Workforce, Sarafina and Await The Dawn, all of whom seem likely to be able to run around or greater than 130.

I am not sure the 3yo's are very brilliant, and personally would expect the older horses to be able to see them off.

As well as reminding me of Lammatarra it was also quite similar to Erhaabs derby, coming from an impossible looking position and then winning virtually on the bridle. Erhaab never won another race but I doubt the same will be true of Pour Moi. Having said that it looks a very strong crop of older horses and I presume Pour Moi will only have 2 more runs before he's retired (Prix Niel and then The Arc).

COT

Don't you think that is pretty much par for the course for the Derby, though? It either throws up a 3yo head and shoulders above its peers or one marginally better than an average bunch. I would say very rarely are the beaten horses top class (Dancing Brave obviously excepted), unless they didn't stay. Occasionally there are some that improve afterwards, like St Jovite and Alamshar.

On my figures this year's beaten horses ran as quick, or quicker, than in recent Derbys. It's not unusual for one or two of O'Brien's seemingly unfancied runners to run out of their skin on the big day.

What impressed me most with Pour Mois was that he was deliberately held up at the rear of the field yet still won - I don't recall a Derby win like that. Erhabb and Lammtarra both came late past horses but that seemed more like just how the race panned out rather than a plan.

Fair point about the tactics A_T. I do think Pour Moi could be exceptional but as I say he really only has one chance to show, it in the Arc, before he's retired. Mind you with the quality of the older horses this year the Arc could be the best since 1986 and we all know what happened then[;)]

Pour Moi does not have an unbeaten record to protect so Coolmore might race him at 4 like they did Montjeu and Hurricane Run.

COT

my guess as the the winner's rating 122p - pretty modest stuff.


IMO, your rating estimate demonstrates the limitations of a simple collateral rating methodology in as good an example as we are likely to see.

Surely your own eyes tell you that we saw an exceptional performance yesterday? Not since Dancing Brave have we seen a horse make up that amount of ground. Nevertheless, the fact that he won is as much luck as judgement. DB was clearly a better horse than Sharastani and  PM is way ahead of the other horses in the field.

Fabre has said that Peintre Celebre was the fastest horse he has trained - some claim - and that horse had exceptional acceleration. Fabre compared PM favourable with PC and stressed how rare it is to find a horse that can accelerate twice in a race.

On my projections based on the sectionals, PM ran to 133 with the second running to 119. I expect him to beat that rating as he strengthens.

Surely your own eyes tell you that we saw an exceptional performance yesterday? Not since Dancing Brave have we seen a horse make up that amount of ground. Nevertheless, the fact that he won is as much luck as judgement. DB was clearly a better horse than Sharastani and  PM is way ahead of the other horses in the field.



Agree PM's superiority is much more than the bare form - although I think Carlton House is better than he showed. The jockey maybe got a little lucky in just managing to get there - flip a coin and you've got Mike Smith on Zenyatta- but perhaps that's what makes genius.

wd op.

I forgot actually, eric...subsequent to doing your nuts on Frankel you also smashed up Carlton House...and still won on Pour Moi!!  Amazing effort to be fair mate, you should write a book on ante-post punting.

Just uploaded screenshot of my book. First bet 1000 @ 25 Frankel placed minutes after his maiden win. He would have walked the Derby as I said at the time. Something we now know to obviously be true. Henry Cecil did his best for the horse who could have won any Classic at any trip. After he missed the race my book was chasing but I made a profit as specified on this thread. Amongst my bets on Pour Moi was an initial 500 @ 20s.

The screenshot needs to be authorised before being displayed. Stakes are total on each horse, odds are average odds taken. Too much work on that book for the profit :)

You must have been cr@pping yourself when Memphis Tee, then Treasure Beach, went for home, old boy?  I had them both 'covered', natch

Sometimes I rule horses out as having a chance. Havent got it wrong yet with outsiders but normally cover whole book.

This years Derby book havent had time its under 1.5k total stake but around that profit on 2 market leaders so pretty efficient, will cover more closer to race.

Cant find the screenshot has it been authorised, never uploaded one before?

So The Headmaster are you a moderator on here, you seen my screenshot before it has uploaded to know about these .. Memphis Tee, then Treasure Beach?

The book comes out next year The Headmaster.

Am I a moderator?!

I spend most of my time slagging off Betfair's Market Ops Dept and their inept practice and total lack of understanding on how ante-post markets work.

(No, I'm not)

eric_morris
14 May 16 19:41

First bet 1000 @ 25 Frankel placed minutes after his maiden win.

Please find me this layer who offered the 1000 on an impressive Newm'mkt maiden winner from a top stable.

The only time I have ever seen 1000 offered is on horses who are fully expected to be non runners.

You got the odds and stakes the wrong way round uncle ... I dont mess about if i spot a potential champion :)

25/1 not on here with a bookie. Frankel wasnt impressive either he just won from Nathaniel (who we didnt know them would go on to win a King George). Had all the potential in the world though. He wasnt quoted for the Guineas biggest mistake i made not asking for a quote for that race as well. All talk was of the Derby for him. Had him antepost at 7/1 the Guineas later on.

Looks like they're not going to upload my screenshot of my 2011 book.

eric_morris
Date Joined:    27 Jun 10
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14 May 16 20:58 Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,188 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
You got the odds and stakes the wrong way round uncle ... I dont mess about if i spot a potential champion :)

no, he has them the right way round

You never placed more than £50 on a horse them Charlton?

eric_morris 27 May 11 12:19 Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,189 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
Moved Pour Moi second in my book now behind Carlton House it is coming down to who will handle the course/trip best. O'Brien's multiple dart machine for smaller amounts unlikely to happen as usual.




Love this post. Dated 27th of May no less after PM's confirmation and he was a top price 9/2 at the time. Yet he cleared a £3.25k profit despite backing 6 other runners on here. Genius. Pure genius.

eric_morris
Date Joined:    27 Jun 10
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14 May 16 21:41 Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,189 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
You never placed more than £50 on a horse them Charlton?

the #s in question are 1000 and 25 and which of them has a £ sign in fromt

wtf has £50 got to do with that?

I know what eric_morris's intentions are on these threads, and I've blocked the user.

Please do. I have had sintonian blocked for years now you are added along with any of your buddies.

am i blocked eric?

Charlton blocked

Im upset hes not blocked me

Be careful, Geoff.  He had a massive red against your name but has sensationally "moved you second" in his blocked ante-post list, probably clearing about 3.5K should you put a toe out of line.

Only joshing btw, ybm - all good fun old chap, eh?

(Please don't block me!! )

I dont spend as much time on here as the rest of you. Its amazing how you get blocked through having winning books on here it seems it is only acceptable to lose. Took 7s The Gurkha to cover my book another lie no doubt

Took 70s last night graham /ybm for a few quid

Well done geoff m (geoff)

"moved you second" in his blocked ante-post list,