VADAMAR Derby

http://www.agakhanstuds.com/news/news_display.asp?newsid=612

link above

Plenty of 20s available, yet someone asking for 17.5 on here..

Sharp minds

defo coming over BM?

derby
0.75 pt e/w nathaniel 50/1 joes.

Oddschecker BLUE. Eric will have had a few k on at 25s

oops wrong thread

Alain de Royer-Dupre said that 10f is short of it's best trip so looks like it will come to Epsom if it gets through it's next run at St Cloud.

correct AT. Also think the trainer doesn't mind a crack at the brit races
have not been able to find a video of his last run but Racing post give it an RPR 117 which is very reasonable & at this stage better than WD & CH

I was snouting around the Derby recently looking for some overpriced beast and liked the look of this one.  At the very least seems likely to have a good chance of picking up the Greffulhe and heading to Epsom.
Anecdotal evidence seems to think that he and Baraan are likely G1 class and if all went to plan he'd be a short price come Epsom.

Maybe he can get back some of the Visindar money!

Looks interesting. My doubt is that, according to James Underwood's report in the Digest, his acceleration was by no means instant.

The Aga Khan‘s Dalakhani colt Vadamar, a three-year-old son of the Unfuwain-sired Saint-Alary winner Vadawina who had won his maiden over 9f nicely at the end of last year, took some time to quicken up in a very slowly run race for the Listed 10½ f Prix Francois-Mathet at Saint Cloud on Sunday but when he did pick up he flew past his rivals as if they were standing still.

The slow pace obviously worked against a colt bred like Vadamar, on whom Lemaire had to use more of his skills than he had perhaps expected to get the colt to go past his rivals.

More form in the book than World Domination, and a more obvious stayer than Frankel but will he line up?

If he is beaten in his next race, the Prix Greffulhe, he'd be an unlikely traveller whereas a British-based colt might still line up after being turned over in the Dante or other trial.

Say 10/1 on the day and evens to win his trial and line up at Epsom, so around 20/1 looks about right.

After the weekend
Frankel no longer a candidate
Nothing amongst Guineas losers screamed a Derby winner
Vadamar alive & well & so is the bet

Well, we'll learn something tomorrow.

Looks a pretty promising field lining up tomorrow and whatever wins it, if pointed towards Epsom would be a contender.

Come on the French!

Doubt Vadamar will go now.

Sounds like Pour Moi was impressive. Another bullet for Coolmore to fire?

Pour Moi showed a nice turn of foot to win today's Prix Greffulhe comfortably, with Vadamar back in third.  The winner settled better than he had done on his reappearance in the Prix la Force and looks a smart colt.  Andre Fabre hasn't committed him to the Epsom Derby yet but if he does decide on a cross-channel raid the hint should be taken.

...and if he doesn't the hint should be taken, judging by the colts ownership.

Disappointing re: Vadamar, though the trainer said this morning it was a prep and he'd be better over further... wishful thinking, maybe

jamesp,

did you see the race? Which website can I go on to see a recording?

Many thanks in advance.

You can see replays for a very modest subscription at http://www.equidiavideo.com/

Thanks James

trainer states no derby making other plans

my apologies to anyone who backed Vadamar.
Pour Moi for me now

Vadamar was odds-on to beat Pour Moi in the Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud earier this month, but could only finish third behind his fellow Epsom aspirant. Georges Rimaud, racing manager to his owner, the Aga Khan, admits the colt needs to progress, but recent homework prompted connections to have a tilt at the mile-and-a-half Classic.

Rimaud said: "We have decided to let him run. He worked well this morning, I am told. The horse has to improve, but we hope he can. Pour Moi is a good horse as well, obviously, but we believe Vadamar has the right to run."

Backed this one AP but to honest it's got no chance

what do you think the reason for his under-par run last time Bestmate ? I see both his wins have been on Soft & Heavy going ..

There was an apparent excuse last time- he inured himself during the race.

He has a serious chance imo.

I wish we had known about the excuse a bit earlier though.

Sint
I have heard about the excuses but haven't seen anything definite. I don't think ground could have been the factor. Most Dalakani's go well on fast ground. imv the race won by pour moi  was the best 3 year old race this year

Happy to have a chance of a run TBH!

Yes at least getting a run for our money

It's the type of bet that requires a belief that something was up. The trainer was on a record as saying, "Today was a test and he didn't pass it. He won't go to Epsom and we'll have to make other plans". The punter now has to decide whether they're just chancing it for the sake of running him in the derby, or whether something was actually amiss.

Apparently he spread a plate before the race ?

Have there been any quotes re an injury aswell ??

I reads something that was to the effect that he knocked a leg in the race he lost to Pour Moi. It was like a reason why he had not run as well as they hoped. I took it to be a "possible" reason to expect him to improve and maybe reverse the form.

If it's connection's intention to still run, then I think the hint should be taken.

His Royal Highness The Aga Khan never has horses at Epsom to make up the numbers. Just look at his last three Derby runners:

2006: Visindar was the red hot 2/1 favourite but could only manage 5th. Never right after that, running just the once - beaten by Numide in a conditions race.
2003: Alamshar ran for John Oxx in 2003 following his win in the Derrinstown, but finished 3rd behind Kris Kin and The Great Gatsby. Ran four times subsequently winning the Irish Derby and the King George, and the only horse ever to beat the great Dalakhani.
2000: Sinndar won the Derby at 7/1 for John Oxx and Johnny Murtagh, ran three times after winning the Irish Derby, Prix Niel and the Arc.

Not sure of his runners before that.

I'm almost 100% this will be Alain De Royer Dupre's first Derby runner as well?

His trips across the water are usually few and far between, mostly sending over his fillies and mares such as Pride, Sabana Perdida, Reggane and Darjina. Siyouni was a rare rare runner in a colts Group One for him last year. I think only Dalghar ran in one since Sendawar was first in the James Palace and then fourth in the Prince of Wales' in '99 and '00. 

If this horse really needs 12f, then why not skip the Derbys and wait for the Grand Prix De Paris on Bastille Day - seems to be what they usually like to do. The pair of them have had the likes of Dalakhani, Darsi and Montmartre, yet were any of those ever under consideration for Epsom?

The vibes were Epsom Derby from an early stage, and they must still think they've a very live contender, after his last race, to still run.

And also, there's Lemiare. The best turf jockey in the world with an excellent record in the UK.

I think 19.5 on here is still quite big, considering the giant connections.

Viva, I have just baked him again.

Trainer was on ATR a minute ago and said he cut his leg lto, which stopped him from showing his usual excelleration. He thinks he is an ''interesting'' contender.

I suspect the quotes will appear on sporting life shortly.

Baked ?

Backed, obviously.

Fingers crossed he shows this excelleration on Saturday

excelleration=exceptional accelleration?

baked excelleration maybe?

PHUCK

OFF

[;)]

Delighted had written him off from my book, now reinstated as number one in my book.

Roflmao

Your book reads like a phucking Horror Novel.

Is there anything you have not backed, Eric,

Balls deep on Frankel first of all, then World Dom.

Swiftly followed by Carlton House, Pour Moi, plus numerous Savers on the Ballydoyle horses.

Now you have Vadamar.

By my reckoning that is SEVEN differeny horses, majority under 10/1.

Stroke of Genius.

VADAMAR was cut to as short as 12-1 for the Investec Derby at Epsom on Saturday after his trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre offered a positive assessment of his chances on Wednesday.


Owned by the Aga Khan, Vadamar was given the go ahead to run in the Derby on Monday after recovering from an injury he sustained when beaten by Pour Moi, the general 7-2 second favourite for Epsom, in the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe last month.


Having started the week at 40-1, Vadamar was cut to 12-1 (from 20) by Stan James and to the same price from 16-1 by Bet365, while Blue Square shortened his price to 16-1 (from 20) on Wednesday.

Speaking on At The Races on Wednesday, Royer-Dupre said: "He looks in good condition. He cut his leg in his last race but he's better now and has progressed, that's why we want to come for the big-race.

"I think he's an easy ride and a very beautiful horse and he stays a lot and has a big acceleration. I think he can go on all the ground and it's good to have a runner who has a chance. I think the level of form [between Vadamar and Pour Moi] is the same so far."

The quotes on in the RP article are actually different, slightly, to what Alain De Roy Du Pray said.

It must have been lost in translation.

Eric now only offering comments as a wind up.

Makes a change from making serious comments and people thinking they are a wind up

8/1 on the day I reckon. Exciting times. that's what racing(read gambling)is all about

Yes - fascinating market for the race and the latest question marks over Carlton House add to the interest.

"The quotes on in the RP article are actually different, slightly, to what Alain De Roy Du Pray said."



Get ready for some more of my unhealthy scepticism. I said he'd be running the night before it was announced. The prices then went blue for hours until the following afternoon. It was then announced after all the prices were moped up. I believe the press are also corrupt. If they take a big price, that then puts them in a position to give a horse positive headlines in the hope the price drops. He could be a good lay for the press who get all the prices first. Let's say many got 33/1, they would now want to see him go as low as possible.

Interesting stuff Graeme83, The extent to which the racing press can influence and exploit market prices and market forces certainly needs to be dissected more thoroughly these days when it comes to Ante Post betting/trading.

I have the spreadsheet and vouchers to prove it talkgoodgamers. Telling the truth winds you lot up without even trying ... can honestly say you do represent a cross-section of society though .. well done

Claiming to back every horse that ever shortens.

Laughable.

Eric Morris: Big on Carlton House and FRankel

Never heard of / dismissed:  Any French horse

Dislikes: O'Brien 'firing his darts' but saved on Recital anyway.

Claimed to have backed: All of the above PLUS any non-mentioned horse after the race.



Am surprised you've shown your face with the negative vibes around the Queen's horse

I can have a no risk book if needbe but will probably csrry some risk on those that have little chance. 4 figures profit likely pretty poor to be honest but after HRAC and Teddy Grimworthy chickened out with Frankel and then I pointed out Carlton House was then the most likely winner pre Dante in Frankel's absence then I have to be happy with a profit considering the incompetence of the aforesaid in getting the horses to the races.

You have to consider incompetence is normally shown by these privileged trainers half who wouldnt know there @rse from their ankle in normal life. It is best to factor this in to your antepost structure.

Stoutey - Russian Rhythm - history.

"4 figures profit likely..."

I am doffing my cap as I type this. A betting God is moving amongst us.

But Graeme, you cannot prove that. There is no evidence for it.

So the odds shorten before he is announced a runner after his setback. Wow.

Or are you saying the trainer invented Vadamars injury aswell.

It is perfectly logical for a horses odds to shorten once they have been confirmed a runner, particularly when the horse got injured in his previous start and was a doubtful participant.

Chaps, I will try my best to not respond to Eric Morose/Gaywetaher any longer.

I've never debated with someone so desperate to save face. I guess that is what bullsh1tters have to do.

Anyway, we know he is loser, hence his claims of injuries/aftettimes,accusations etc.

Good riddance!

[i]Augustine
Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
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When: 02 Jun 11 08:49

"4 figures profit likely..."

I am doffing my cap as I type this. A betting God is moving amongst us.[/i]

With regarrd to Vadamar I think his connections have to be respected - they don't tend to come to the UK unless they think thay have a decent chance.

I guess with the French Derby being 10f means Epsom is a better target for such a stoutely bred horse. I still thought they might wait for the Irish Derby or Grand Prix de Paris.

"But Graeme, you cannot prove that. There is no evidence for it."


I make up my own version of the truth, unless presented with facts. It was the same as when the Americans killed Bin Laden. I never bought a penny of it, and had my own ideas. Horse Racing makes P@kistani cricket look as if its steeped in honesty and integrity. I think horse racing is full of conflicting ingterests and alternative agendas. As barney Curley has stated before, the game is full of take out merchants. He should know, he's one of them.

It suits Barney Curley to say that in fairness.

But nevermind, we disagree. Horse Racing is a Sport like any other. Things can go wrong.

In heindsight i'd say Vadamar had nothing wrong with him LTO. Both owner and jockey were interviewed at length, and neither mentioned anything about an injury. They both said he ran a good race, and hoped he come on from it. Did Dupre actually say the horse had an injury on ATR, or did the RP early price sharks make that comment up ?

Your probably in the wrong game Graeme if you think a trainer such as Dupre would lie about an injury. Ditto for Stoutey.

Don't believe half of what you see, and none of what you hear

The truth is out there

Where did i say Stoute lied about an injury, or that the horse wasn't injured ?...and i also asked whether or not Dupre said the horse was injured to our press.

On the Carlton House thread Graeme .. ''Thats if the horse is even injured''.

Exactly. I never said he wasn't injured.

Oh dear. So what exactlt are you saying, Graeme ?

on the thread you suggest CH might not be injured, then later on say the bookies wouldn't have knocked his price out to 2/1 NRNB without knowing he wasn't going to run. Contradictory, imo.

This is what I mean about baseless cynicism Graeme. If you have no evidence for something (like Big Mac spouting nonsense yesterday), it will just lead you around and around in circles.

I was saying "that's if the horse was injured", not that the horse wasn't injured. I read second hand information like everyone else.

There are injuries and injuries. Horses can sustain cuts, lose shoes, etc. and it's bearing on the outcome of a race is negligible.

I backed this AP and frankly its just not good enough.

Of course it wasn't good enough. I was just wondering whether or not the trainer actually said the horse picked up a problem in his last race. My reason as stated, is that the jockey and owner made no mention of it when talking about the last race, or at any other time in their fairly extensive interviews. They said it was beaten by two good horses, and that he ran a good race which they hoped he would improve upon.

Trainer actually said he cut himself last time out.

He must have cut himself 10 yards before the line. I saw no improvement.