mordin on frankel

Jonibake, I found it difficult to quibble with your assessment of the top 7 a few posts ago. I would put Casamento above Roderic O Connor, but wouldn't change much else. For me, it's about 2 things: value, and also the sometimes expensive urge I have to defy the vast majority. It is incredibly hard to ignore the comments of a man like Henry Cecil. It's not illogical to assume that, if a man of his experience thinks Frankel is the best he's ever trained, he must win the Guineas. However, strictly on racecourse evidence, I cling resolutely and desperately to the view that he has not shown form that far in excess of the top 2 Irish colts from last season. Indeed, on a tenuous line between Zoffany (Phoenix, National) and Glor Na Mara (Phoenix, Dewhurst) it could be argued there's not much between them at all. That is very tenuous, but we are talking a huge discrepancy in price after all.

Thanks Howellsy. To be fair I think we can draw a line through Zoffany's National run as he didnt seem to handle the conditions (neither did Glor Na Mara)and had been over raced by then.

You are absolutely right though that Frankel represents no value now and ROC only has a couple of lengths to make up on the book but, in my opinion, we didnt see the best of Frankel that day and I honestly think he is different class to these. But of course he is a horse and anything can happen. I have long been saying that this is not a betting race anymore. For me Saturday will hopefully be about watching a potentially great racehorse and nothing to do with what price he is. If there was no such thing as betting and you just had to pick a winner it would surely be Frankel.

I would be the last person to say that Frankel is home and hosed. I could never be as confident as Mythical Prince and wouldnt want to be as we saw today when the second part of his sure fire double crashed out in typical Rocket Ron fashion!

Of the Eclipe Lord Grimthorpe says:

"It's not particularly significant that Frankel isn't entered," Grimthorpe said. "If he does go the mile and a half route, which is questionable, he would go for races over that distance, and even if he doesn't but still triesa mile and a quarter, Henry (Cecil) will probably want to wait for something like the Juddmonte International."

Ahhh Howellsy - first of all I didn't say Native Khan would win the Guineas, just that at 50/1 a few days before the Craven and bigger on the exchanges he was 'value' and now that he is 12/1 that is half the battle won especially as he 'is' the strongest on 'my' trends...trends and value are individual, some people follow the same trends, some people prefer to look at trends that the crowd ignore of which I fall into the latter camp. If you constantly identify and back overlays (even potential overlays) and can estimate a price drop like that it will serve you a lot better than backing favourites over time.

Secondly, your NOT giving 'trends' reasons why NK won't win your giving your own opinion from an interpretation of previous contenders trials and form...totally different approach from trends analysis and your other comments are purely subjective. NK does differ from EP on quite a few trends fronts but as I said these are my own personal trends so I don't expect you to recognise the immediate differences.

You are also reading too much into NK's Craven win or perhaps not enough, for starters Libranno pulled far too hard and was restrained in front which led to a slower pace than will be the case in the Guineas when the pacemaker (and perhaps one other) will kick on in front to ensure a stronger, truer gallop, this will lead to a requirement to travel, quicken AND see out the trip...a Guineas winner needs all 3 you see and I'm convinced the race will be run to suit NK, then it just comes down to a question of class which apart from perhaps Frankel we can never be 100% sure about until the day itself.

You keep going on about the RP Trophy but still fail to acknowledge that NK needs fast ground and the softer surface that day meant he just didn't travel through the race, so again to finish such a close 4th with conditions against him was not such a disgrace and again the slow early pace would not have been ideal for him there.

He was only 85% ready (as stated by the trainer before and after) in the Craven and was very fresh and got worked up in the prelims so the fact he did win so well is testamount to his ability. He will be closer to 100% on Saturday and with that run under his belt hopefully will be a bit calmer on the day, he has his ground, has won a trial, handles the course, can travel and quicken, fitted my trends almost perfectly, so what is not to like ? Ok, the Craven has not been the trial it once was but many have run well in there and you could argue the same point about the Djebel before Makfi's win last year...trends/trial races have spells where winners or placers come good on the big day so fingers crossed he will not disgrace himself and at the very least hit the frame.

Absolutely loving the analysis here, some great stuff amongst it.  Just thought I'd point out that usually Nick Mordin usually concentrates on raceform/timeform comments about physical appearance on a horses first couple of starts as a 2yo and he hasn't mentioned it this year.  I remember going back that 'gd sorts' 'nice colts'(very rare, Kings Best was one I think) etc have always had at least one representative in the race and they usually run well.  Has anyone got the list of these for Saturdays race, and anything for the 1000?  I remember Lahan was described as rangy and when I saw her in the paddock before her guineas she stood out a mile.  Physical appearance and development might be the one edge still to be got from the race when the horses turn out in the paddock at Newmarket.  Cheers.

I remember that Chico although I thought it was only for Derby winners but I can't remember the exact details of the article...this year only one from the 2000 Guineas was described as 'Good Sort' on his debut and that was Frankel so no edge there I'm afraid ! I remember going to Celtic Swing's Guineas ready to watch him stroll home but bet Pennekamp for value at the last minute when I saw him strolling round the paddock exuding so much class. There is a lot to be said for the physical appearance and attitude of the colts on the day, not so sure about the fillies though or if they are even described in the same manner, certainly none of this year's are described as good sort or anything resembling that on their debut.

It will be interesting to see what tactics they use on Saturday as they cant be happy that the pacemaker is right at the other end of the draw. Id think that Hills will try and keep them in the centre if possible as if he comes stand side Queally will have to switch back in as you ideally wouldnt want a colt who shifts right at the end of his races isolated on the outside whilst it would be some feat to get them to go far side.

Raceform's paddock descriptions (good sort; workmanlike; scope and all that malarkey) were axed for all but the big meetings to cut costs years ago, so the good sort angle is not there.

Timeform's paddock descriptions were always rubbish. I think they must do them off the telly.

Draws are reversed of course so the usually favoured high numbers now mean that those drawn low have the advantage, the lowest 6 stalls have won 6 of the last 10 renewals. I think the pacemaker will be able to get out quick and Frankel should be able to get a good toe in behind, not a massive field so don't foresee that as being much of a issue to be honest.

Cheers for that secret gambler, it's a big shame that raceform have stopped producing paddock comments like that, they were a fantastic indication  for people who want to make a serious go of punting but can't get to the track that often - it doesn't surprise me that Frankel earned the good sort accolade and he looks tough to beat.  However, I make pacetables for races (loosely based on the Speed Pts system from Andy Beyer) and just on the face of it there is a lot of speed in the field for Saturday's Guineas.  In mile races with lots of pace on I usually look for the horses likely to sit handy.  Pathfork is one who's done it every race for instance.  But I just think the Irish horses (and Casamento) are lacking a bit.  I'm starting to accept that we're trying to find the horses to chase Frankel home.

Therefore it might be worth having a go ew (and exactas/trifectas) on some interesting longshots.  I've looked long and hard at Broox and really wanted to back him just because I love Dream Ahead and Broox has classy french form from last year with Sim**** star.  I respect Broox's trainer massively as well and having backed Vital Equine (to win only-worse luck) in the guineas a couple of years ago he clearly knows when to have a crack at some good place money.  But Broox looks like he might just do far too much early and empty out.  This leaves Dubawi Gold and Happy Today as race fit horses with lots of pace but that might just sit behind the leaders and last home whilst the 10f horses Roderic and Casamento are plugging on.  Dubawi Gold looks genuinely outclassed on his racing post trophy form but Happy Today is lightly raced, ran a good race over 9f on the Rowley last time and might just grab a place at massive odds.

Phew!  First time in ages I've got proper stoned and looked at the horses in the same week and I can write more about this stuff than in about 6 months of real work!

I think in a field this size it won't make that much difference about the draw to be honest especially if the stalls are in the middle. In fact if Rerouted is in as a pacemaker he might choose to tag along to the stand side as he is drawn widest of all.

As ridiculous as this is going to sound in a 13 runner field, could they split into 2 groups and if so where would Frankel go as he is drawn 1? ROC could tag along to the opposite rail from 3 and take them along like he did in the Dewhurst.

Zil are the stalls stands side or in the centre ?which could have a big bearing.
If they are up the middle cant see any prob as would expect pacemaker to blast off & try & tack across towards Frankel
If they are stands side could see problems for the fav as you would expect the others to ignore the pacemaker who wouldnt then tack across & could be traffic probs for Frankel

ignore that forgot draw reversal(WTF racing for creating absolute disaster) otherwise Known as change.

Mich I think it was a few yrs back Haafds guineas wasnt a large field prob 14/15 but after 2 furlongs they where scattered all over the rowley mile

I think I was too busy laughing at One Cool Cat to notice that Geoff

I can't see any video of it anywhere on the internet but Saturday could be a very tactical race, and while I think Tom Queally is a fantastic jockey (see Midday winning at the Breeders Cup) I think he can also misjudge things (see last years Middleton stakes). Some very good jockeys riding in the race.

The stalls are stand side for the 1st race and you'd assume that theyd stay there, in the next over 12f they might go far rail so the jocks should have some clue where they want to be, now if the french one who likes to lead and is drawn high makes a bee line for the near side and Frankie, who will ride Casamento from right near the lead id assume follows him then there could be a few decisions to be made

Stalls are in the middle for the Guineas and it's more than likely that the field will bunch up in the middle. There could be a few traffic issues if they don't pull out their horse at the key time as the pacemaker starts to struggle. I doubt they will split as no jock will want to take a chance to race alone away from the cover on one side or the other...could get messy.

Geoff - in Haafhd's year they all came up the centre bar one who raced far side.

I think that Queally will try and 'ping' Frankel, not take a pull as had done previously, and get him close to the pace. If that is close to Rerouted then so be it, if not he could make the running. I am of the opinion that Frankel settles fine as long as he is not among horses.

If that happens we will see if any of the unexposed horses can get to him in the last furlong

this weeks edition of the weekender magazine is classic mordin. not surprisingly again he's anti-frankel. one of his main arguments seems to be that two-year old races are generally slowly run in the early stages compared to contests involving older horses. and therefore horses that are dominant at two lose that advantage when conditions change. a laudable argument.

he also rightly points out that those who follow the two-year old champion in the guineas, an obviously popular system, are heavily down over the last few years. since 1986, 13 horses who have headed the free handicap have gone on to run in the 2000 guineas and only two of them have scored.

however where he typically devises a system around his theory that frankel won't win the guineas, comes at the end of the article.

"I found out that if you simply added the racing post ratings they earned on their debut to the one they earned last time out the total for all but one of the guineas winners from 1990 onwards was at least 190. That sole exception was Golan who had just the one previous start, earning a racing post rating of 94.

This approach puts you on Guineas runners who showed they could produce their best early in the season and also produce a smart performance on their latest outing.
It is very interesting to note that there is a major caveat to this finding. Namely that it seems fatal to a horse's 2000 Guineas chances for his debut and latest Racing Post ratings to add up to more than 210. Horses with this profile are invariably exceptional two-year olds, just like those who head the free handicap. And they've performed dreadfully in the 2000 Guineas.

So far there have been 29 2000 Guineas runners who first and last Racing Post ratings added up to more than 210. all 29 have lost.

This year Frankel and the second favourite Pathfork both have this seemingly fatal statistical flaw. here is the total of their first and last racing post ratings, together with the other 2000 guineas entries who have scored 190 or higher.

1. Frankel 214
2.Pathfork 212
3. Casamento 210
4. Native Khan 202
5. Roderick O'Connor 198
6 Loving spirit 194
7 master of the hounds 194
8 Rerouted 191

I don't think that Rerouted is a great be to beat Frankel
and pathfork because he got beaten in the free handicap and looks a shade outclassed.
Master of the hounds has such a low strike rate i can't have him either.
Casamento needs longer in my opinion, and only one racing post trophy winner has won the guineas
from around 40 attempts. I reckon native khan also wants longer and he clocked a slow time in the craven.
Loving spirit doesn't look good enough to me.

So by a process of elimation I arrive at roderick o connor. I like his chances of turning over the favourite
and I like his odds even more."

^ fair enough nick that you fancy roc to turn over the jolly, but what on earth has the racing post ratings of their first and latest run got to do with anything? isn't there some other silly system that you could devise?

Yes, I was very disappointed by that too. Utter poppycock. Playing about with numbers. So the 2 reasons Frankel can't win are that his first and most recent rpr add up to too high a number, and that he won't stay. Actually, the 'won't stay' argument is dafter. In trying to find a way Frankel might get beaten in the Greenham, I looked up every single one of Galileo's progeny - very sad - and only 7 out of 400 odd have won over a 7f as 3yos. Galileo is a massive influence for stamina. I didn't look up all the dams - yet - but I'm sure lots of them were speed horses or from speed families. The only 2 reasons Frankel can be beaten, in my view, are that he might find one rival with slightly more speed, or the other jockeys might just get naughty and splinter off into fragmented clusters. If you think Frankel can't be beaten, surely it's worth trying to come to the stands rail, or the far rail etc? Look at the mess that was made of last year's 1000 Guineas! Music Show beaten by miles.

I'd normally defend Mordin and he could end up right but that didn't wash with me either!

There are good reasons to think that Roderic O'Connor may have the measure of Frankel this time but that was pretty tenuous.

His problem, albeit a problem we'd all love to be paid to have, is that his column is a 'systems' column, so he's kinda bound to devise systems.  I'd be more interested in his Weekender column if it was written with free reign, not having to create a horses to follow list every week.

can  anyone remember the last mega star horse
that was a bit awkward. i can't.

ground - will be like glass. any watering will
be a hopeless task.

form on the ground?

pathfork is by all accounts going the right way
looks the part and goes on a pavement , apparently!

frankel - questions abound and a superstar 2yo
rates less than it stands for, imo

pathfork at 8/1 on here! or 1.6 the jolly?
easy choice.

The greatest pile of shoite that has ever been written about horse racing. I have no problem with anyone against Frankel but ffs don't make ur case up.

Go on Nick[:p]

I think Mordin's article makes a lot more sense than some of the other reasons people have been putting up to get Frankel beaten to be honest. At least the guy is an alternative thinker and looks for fresh angles rather than (for example) the time of his trial race was poor, his form doesn't look strong enough, the horse is a sprinter/stayer (delete as appropriate). Any contrarian angle should be commended - it's the cliche-ridden analysis that should be ridiculed.

can you answer me this secret gambler. what possible logic is there connecting their first and latest racing post ratings posted by a horse, as mordin doesn't seem to offer any? as opposed to say, a horse's first and second racing post ratings?

its all above my head

Mordin is an attention seeker Frankel will win the Guineas make no mistake about that.

No only that he'll win the Epsom Derby as well.

I would be the first to say he's too fast and too good over 7 and 8F to get the trip but the thing is Frankel is no ordinary horse.

They say he pulls hard and that is not the case at all.

Frankel is so talented with such a powerful engine he simply can't go any slower than he does, at least not without going into a trot.

How else can you explain how a horse can be looking to be pulling like a train then quicken up like he's been half asleep for 5 furlongs?

While he may look like he's using up a lot of energy early doors he obviously isn't.

He's never once show any signs of stopping at 7 or 8 furlongs and has such a high cruising speed  why should an extra 2f or even 4f make an ounce of difference to him?

When a horse is as good as he is to beat him the first thing you have to do is get him out of cruise control early to tap into his stamina limits. If you can't get him out of cruise control then you have one big problem because he'll cruise past you no matter what the trip.

To me he's the Kauto Star of the flat. Run Kauto pre 2010 at 2 miles he'll stuff you run him at 3 miles do the same because you simply can't go fast enough to get him at it.

For some reason people are always out to get the greats when they come along. Frankel for me will shut the lot of them up by not only winning the 2000 Guineas as he likes but winning the Derby, cross the ocean win the Breeders and proving he's the best we've seen since Sea Bird II.

Now there's a treble for you [;)]

mythical prince -- at 02:30 you ask, "what possible logic is there connecting their first and latest racing post ratings posted by a horse, as mordin doesn't seem to offer any? as opposed to say, a horse's first and second racing post ratings?"

Yet a few posts earlier, you yourself have included Mordin's own explanation in your long extract from the Weekender: "This approach puts you on Guineas runners who showed they could produce their best early in the season and also produce a smart performance on their latest outing."

mordin doesnt think in straight lines
he's thinking
differently to others
opens his mind

betting is separate from analysis.

none of this game is exact and the broad
minded ones in any field are the pathfinders.
he's also a writer, so this is art as much as anything.

his p/l accounts might be a better way to judge him
on his betting. not everyone does it like timeform!!!!

MP, for someone who has studied Decartes, I doubt Mordin goes over your head!

Howellsy Joined: 17 Mar 03
Replies: 140 29 Apr 11 09:20 
MP, for someone who has studied Decartes, I doubt Mordin goes over your head!


Poker player eh!

howellsy

ramruma, you claim the line

"This approach puts you on Guineas runners who showed they could produce their best early in the season and also produce a smart performance on their latest outing."

fully explains his theory. but why? why is it relevant that they could produce a smart performance on their latest outing and the connection to producing their best early in the season? and why is it a negative to have a high rating, as opposed to a lower rating, and not some kind of statistical blip? he doesn't explain why to me.

its all greek to me [smiley:crazy]

Rondetto Joined: 20 Jul 10
Replies: 502 29 Apr 11 05:27   
Mordin is an attention seeker Frankel will win the Guineas make no mistake about that.

No only that he'll win the Epsom Derby as well.

I would be the first to say he's too fast and too good over 7 and 8F to get the trip but the thing is Frankel is no ordinary horse.

They say he pulls hard and that is not the case at all.

Frankel is so talented with such a powerful engine he simply can't go any slower than he does, at least not without going into a trot.

How else can you explain how a horse can be looking to be pulling like a train then quicken up like he's been half asleep for 5 furlongs?

While he may look like he's using up a lot of energy early doors he obviously isn't.

He's never once show any signs of stopping at 7 or 8 furlongs and has such a high cruising speed  why should an extra 2f or even 4f make an ounce of difference to him?

When a horse is as good as he is to beat him the first thing you have to do is get him out of cruise control early to tap into his stamina limits. If you can't get him out of cruise control then you have one big problem because he'll cruise past you no matter what the trip.

To me he's the Kauto Star of the flat. Run Kauto pre 2010 at 2 miles he'll stuff you run him at 3 miles do the same because you simply can't go fast enough to get him at it.For some reason people are always out to get the greats when they come along. Frankel for me will shut the lot of them up by not only winning the 2000 Guineas as he likes but winning the Derby, cross the ocean win the Breeders and proving he's the best we've seen since Sea Bird II.

Now there's a treble for you 








good grief man, confident much? of course hes expected to win tomorrow, look at his odds but the comparisons with kauto, calling him a 'great' and saying hes the best since sea bird is a tad premature dont u think. hes beat absolutely nothing so far, he beat roderic o connor, thats it, thats literally all hes done. the greenham was a non event, 25/1 2nd, come on.

i think we should reserve comparisons of greatness until he actually wins some worthwhile races, tomorrow is his 1st major stepping stone, lets hope he comes thru it!! personally i think pathfork will beat him but we shall see.

gl

Yes, and in the light of ilikewavingatbuses' post, can any rabid Frankelian please point to the single piece of form that entitles him to be 1.7 (or whatever he is) please? I don't want a list, I just want ONE RACE THAT HE HAS RUN THAT JUSTIFIES THE HYPE.

With a horse like Frankel sometimes you have to look beyong the mere form. First of all there is Cecil's confidence and he is not one for shouting out about his horses. Secondly there is the 'manner' of his wins some of which have been breathtaking and that mid-race move at Ascot was something only really seen by great racehorses. Thirdly he has never looked like being beaten in the closing stages of any of his races, if anything he has looked even stronger at the end of his races which is another sign of a good horse. He is the likeliest winner but the price is a bit out of kilter as we don't really know for sure just how good the opposition is until he meets and beats them. I've had one value bet in the race and will be happy but not too surprised if it wins, certainly not as surprised as some others but if he only make the frame then I pray that Frankel wins in style as racing needs champions.

Are you a politician, secretgambler? Not really answering the question there!!

mythical prince, that is not my claim. The great thing about Mordin is that, as teachers used to urge before exams, he "shows his working".

In this instance, Mordin has told us the reasoning between adding together those particular ratings. This means that, because we understand it, we are free to disagree with it. We can say he is wrong to add those ratings, or that they do not mean what Mordin thinks they mean, or that we should prefer a horse's second run to its first if it ran green.

Or whatever. If Mordin just gave the ratings without explanation, we could not disagree with his reasoning, only with his conclusion.

What's wrong with the Dewhurst form?

Nothing... yet

It's only a trial after all

There's nothing wrong with the Dewhurst form, A-T. I think that's his best form, and his only really substantial piece of form. He beat a subsequent group 1 winner by 2.5 lengths, and a group 3 winner by 5 lengths. In the National Stakes, Pathfork beat a subsequent group 1 winner by half a length and a group 1 winner by 5 lengths. To my mind, the comparison between those races justifies Frankel as favourite, but not the huge discrepancy in prices. Someone's now going to say he had loads in hand when he beat ROC. Maybe he did. I'm not so sure. It would be fascinating to know how ROC compared with Pathfork and Casamento last Autumn. That's the black hole in the form book imo.

When analysing Frankel's form to date we should not lose sight of the fact that he has a middle distance pedigree

4/7 looks fair enough for Frankel IMO. Can't have Pathfork - scrambled home by a head in it's last race nearly 8 months ago - we've really no idea whether it's trained on and I doubt the trainer has much to tell her either. Looks to me like a good 2 year old only.

We know Frankel is in good form - he's going to win tomorrow.

pathforks class got him home that day, absolutely hated the ground, he won inspite of the ground, and the second went on to win the RPT.

absolutely ridiculous crabbing that!

What price would you be willing to put up on Frankel on Betfair then Howellsy ? Your so confident the price is so far out of whack stick up what price you think it should be, I am sure there would be plenty of takers ;-)

As for the answer I gave, it was in direct response to your question that it was more than one worthwhile piece of form, but I think you've partly answered it anyway with the Dewhurst comment but you also have to look beyond the mere form book when pricing up a race.

For me, collateral form is over-rated and when you look a mere winning distances you also need to factor in the 'ease' of that victory rather than looking at bare figures and also look not just what beaten horses have done but the pace of the race, the time, the going, distance, course etc etc. Not many horses win races by 13 lengths and 10 lengths, even if they were small field events. Each time he has been tested he has not been found wanting...the only doubt I have about Frankel is whether something may do him for a turn of foot but he may already be gone by then.

To say the prices are out of whack because Frankel beat a GP1 winner by a comfortable 2.25 lengths and a GP3 winner by 5 lengths, while Pathfork beat a GP1 winner 1/2 length and another 5 lengths is simplistic and unrealstic way of measuring what the horse's comparative prices should be. Sure it's one factor but there are many more, a lot of them subjective that go into the end price of a horse and an overall market.

harrington said hes the best horse shes ever trained fwiw and ive been told hes been working the house down, i just hope its true.

i havent even backed him but will tomorrow.

hes going to love the ground and is an out and out miler, i think he is the most likely one to turn over the fav.

secretgambler Joined: 09 Feb 02
Replies: 55 29 Apr 11 14:00 
What price would you be willing to put up on Frankel on Betfair then Howellsy ? Your so confident the price is so far out of whack stick up what price you think it should be, I am sure there would be plenty of takers ;-)

As for the answer I gave, it was in direct response to your question that it was more than one worthwhile piece of form, but I think you've partly answered it anyway with the Dewhurst comment but you also have to look beyond the mere form book when pricing up a race.

For me, collateral form is over-rated and when you look a mere winning distances you also need to factor in the 'ease' of that victory rather than looking at bare figures and also look not just what beaten horses have done but the pace of the race, the time, the going, distance, course etc etc. Not many horses win races by 13 lengths and 10 lengths, even if they were small field events. Each time he has been tested he has not been found wanting...the only doubt I have about Frankel is whether something may do him for a turn of foot but he may already be gone by then.

To say the prices are out of whack because Frankel beat a GP1 winner by a comfortable 2.25 lengths and a GP3 winner by 5 lengths, while Pathfork beat a GP1 winner 1/2 length and another 5 lengths is simplistic and unrealstic way of measuring what the horse's comparative prices should be. Sure it's one factor but there are many more, a lot of them subjective that go into the end price of a horse and an overall market.





LOL why do people always say this?? like anyone would lay a bigger price than the market is offering, its retarded, its like taking even money if 11/8 was available[smiley:crazy]

Almost as retarded as expecting Pathfork to confirm form with Casamento or basing your bet based on what a trainer thinks of a horse or gallop whispers ?

I say it because if you have a very strong opinion as Howellsy clearly has regarding the price you should be prepared to put your money where your mouth is. The comment about evens to 11/8 is ridiculous in percentage difference terms but if you think 1.58 is too short for Frankel then you should eitehr have the belief to lay him at 1.59 or at the very least to back Pathfork at 9.2 - otherwise it's just hot air...I wonder whether Howellsy has done either ?

Almost as retarded as expecting Pathfork to confirm form with Casamento or basing your bet based on what a trainer thinks of a horse or gallop whispers ?

Secretgambler, I'm enjoying this debate, but I can't resist nailing you on this one. Juyst a few posts a go, in espousing frankel's cause,you said

"First of all there is Cecil's confidence, and he is not one for shouting out about his horses."

Hoist by your own 'retard'?!!

are u eric morris by any chance?[smiley:crazy]

ive been been a massive pathfork from the very beginning(check his thread on here), not on fooking race course gallop whispers. i was just told by someone on here who(normally reliable, serious poster) CLAIMS(as i said i dont know if they do) to have been told by someone that has a connection with the yard that the horse is absloutely flying at home.


Almost as retarded as expecting Pathfork to confirm form with Casamento or basing your bet based on what a trainer thinks of a horse or gallop whispers ?


what makes u so sure he wont confirm form?

he seems to have 'disappeared'!

mordin on frankel


As queally feeling unwell I sincerely hope nick doesnt get the ride.

Not really howellsy as I am not basing a bet on it unlike others. Also with all due respect to Jessie Harrington, she has not yet trained multiple Group and Classic winners so Cecil's opinion holds a lot more weight...please try to think outside the box and not take things so literally.

Casamento only just was headed by Pathfork who was an good 2yo but Casamento was only having his 2nd run and was a big baby, he improved with every run and has more scope to be a 3yo than Pathfork I feel and also won the RP Trophy in a better field. It may be just a little too soon for him as he was only a standby but he will likely be the better 3yo than Pathfork.

As for being told by a mate of a mate who sweeps up at a yard...I won't say any more on that apart from...oh dear, oh dear.

There is a line of form through Master of Hounds though isnt there? ROC beat him 2 and a half, so did Casamento who finished upsides Pathfork. Frankel beat ROC 2 and a half. Easy peasy.

secretgambler Joined: 09 Feb 02
Replies: 57 29 Apr 11 17:55 
Not really howellsy as I am not basing a bet on it unlike others. Also with all due respect to Jessie Harrington, she has not yet trained multiple Group and Classic winners so Cecil's opinion holds a lot more weight...please try to think outside the box and not take things so literally.

Casamento only just was headed by Pathfork who was an good 2yo but Casamento was only having his 2nd run and was a big baby, he improved with every run and has more scope to be a 3yo than Pathfork I feel and also won the RP Trophy in a better field. It may be just a little too soon for him as he was only a standby but he will likely be the better 3yo than Pathfork.

As for being told by a mate of a mate who sweeps up at a yard...I won't say any more on that apart from...oh dear, oh dear.






good grief u are eric morris!! firstly as i stated, i dont even know why im biting but anyway, go look at pathforks offical thread, good lad, youll find everything u need to know on there.

im not basing my bleedin opinion on the horse based on reports ive heard from someone who has claims with the yard, even tho u fookin wrote this("First of all there is Cecil's confidence, and he is not one for shouting out about his horses." ), these reports or whatever u want to call them were merely passed on to me(which i didnt even ask for) as the poster knew i liked the horse and said hes been working well, i dont know if this is true or not (as i stated u bleedin half-wit), but he is a serious poster and not ur typical forum numpty like yourself.

yet u come up with these ridiculous assumptions, because thats all they are... assumptions, to suit your opinions on the race.u talk about casamento being a baby, it was only  his 2nd run, it was only pathforks 3rd run u clown. casamento was suited down to the ground by the conditions too RE the soft ground. i dont know who the better horse is but on form pathfork was better!

dont be a numpty all your life please!

if only it was like that joni. christmas everyday

Thanks but I do this for a living full-time and only follow my own opinion, what I see with my own eyes and use a contrarian approach allayed to value betting...certainly don't pay any attention to some muppet who reckons he has a line into a 'yard'...heard all that 'inside info' before and it's biased information even if it is remotely genuine which 9/10 it isn't but usually from a glory/attention seeker. You miss the point about Frankel as well...the comments I am referring to are a multiple-classic winning trainers value opinion and confidence in the horse that it is the best he has trained...not from someone who knows someone who knows someone etc etc.

Pathfork was indeed the better horse on form...by a head ! Anyone who knows anything about race-reading and horse racing could see the better performance came from the more backward, babyish Casamento that day. He improved with each run after culminating in an impressive RP Trophy win which everyone should have been on.

The only reason Casamento will not finish in front of Pathfork (more of a 2yo with less scope) is that this has not been his main target whereas it has to Pathfork...so again Casa will improve on what he achieves on Saturday but still will 'probably' be enough to deal with Pathfork and others as he is trained by one of the most promising trainers about in Zarooni.

Of course it all could be pretty irrelevant because Frankel is the likeliest winner, certainly not value and for sure underpriced but easily the likeliest winner on form, potential and whatever other 'common' methods Joe Public uses to look at a race...but not on trends.

That falls to Native Khan who has been largely ignored but will have the race run to suit, will love the rattling fast ground and has some semblance of form, won a key trial and was unsuited to both the slow early pace and softer ground in the RP Trophy so can be marked up on that excellent run. He may not win but he is the value e/w play. I am hoping it will be 1) Native Khan 2) Frankel 3) Casamento but in all likelihood it will be 1) Frankel 2) Native Khan 3) Casamento which will suit me just fine also.

There is of course a 3rd prospect and that is that Saammid clearly didn't run his race in the Dewhurst and he has one of the best if not the best young jockeys in the world at the moment with Mik Barza...the problem is that it's trained by Suroor not Zarooni but this jockey is the most promising and naturally gifted jockey I have seen in the last 10-20 years and anything he does would not surprise me, just a question of whether the tongue tie helps.

So my advice would be to read less of what you read in the Racing Post, Sporting Life, Betfair forum and try to form your own opinions and look at fresh angles, like Mordin has...he may well be proven to be wide of the mark but we can always bring this thread back up when Frankel lines up in the July Cup I guess ;-)

full time living...you?

That falls to Native Khan who has been largely ignored but will have the race run to suit, will love the rattling fast ground and has some semblance of form, won a key trial and was unsuited to both the slow early pace and softer ground in the RP Trophy so can be marked up on that excellent run. He may not win but he is the value e/w play. I am hoping it will be 1) Native Khan 2) Frankel 3) Casamento but in all likelihood it will be 1) Frankel 2) Native Khan 3) Casamento which will suit me just fine also.


The going was not in the least bit soft at Doncaster that day, the official going was good but even that was out, 4 winners dipped under standard that day and all times give it round or straight course suggested that the ground was virtually g/f that day

Spot on, Zil.

Yeah full time living unlike driving buses ;-)

Now I remember why I don't frequent the Betfar forum. Who said it was soft ? I said softER...than he will encounter on Saturday but it was still. The ground was good with soft patches that day at Doncaster, penom reading of 7.5...watch the re-run and also read both Dunlop's and more importantly Hanagan's comments. Then realise the difference between good ground with a bit of cut and good to firm (firm in places ground) and you will see why he will be better suited to it. Most times were above standard that day actually and you need to factor in a class allowance when calculating comparisons with avg times, especially in GP1 races as they will generally speaking be faster than standard.

"Paul (Hanagan) said he was hating the ground. We were keen to get him to relax and do everything right, and he did. We learned more about him today than when he won the Solario. He's going to stay further, but the ground is the key to him, it blunted hisspeed today - Ed Dunlop, trainer "

So whatever the state of the ground that day it was unsuitable and on Saturday it will be suitable..end of.

SG- if u actually READ my posts u would know i didnt claim to have info or a contact with anyone in the yard! However i have been a fan of the horse since its maiden race and was simply stating that i heard the horse is in great form(whether he is or not), hes perfectly entitled to be 2nd fav in this race, he beat casamento on ground far from ideal and dont understand where u are getting this  theory of casamento having more scope and was definately a 2 yr old? where on earth ae u plucking this from? u seem to be the one saying things to suit your theories, not me!

And when was the reading taken?? im sure you are aware that historical readings are notably inaccurate and there was no way that the going reading of 7.5 was anywhere near the truth.

They didnt smash any records at Newbury despite the unsuitable early pace on g/f

Oh and Prosser stuck 8mm on today

Ilike - it's not a theory, it's an opinion based on 20+ years of race reading and form analysis and learning to trust what I see and believe rather than what I am told. It's clear to me from their conformations that Casamento has the frame to make into a better 3yo, perhaps Pathfork will too but it certainly doesn't look that way to me...like I said it's just my opinion on the two of them.

Zilzal...the reading was taken in the morning and that was before the 2 showers that fell before racing, you will of course know that when rain has fallen and then the first few races are run it tends to get into the ground a bit more. You are saying your opinion is more accurate to that of Ed Dunlop's and more importantly Paul Hanagans ? Maybe also take some time to read some of the other form of the other races that day especially in the later stages...not that I am a fan of Racing Post summaries but....

first race - "The3-y-o HOOF IT, drawn in stall one, turned in a career-best effort when returned to this trip at Haydock when only just denied by Cheveton last month and went one better with a decent effort. He was ridden a bit more patiently and it was obvious nearing the business end he would reel back the runner-up. He did his winning on quick ground in the summer, but evidently relishes some cut over the minimum trip and strongly appeals as the type to improve further next year."

second race -" Nottingham maiden winner EARL OF LEITRIM, having only his third start, had reportedly improved at home and he coped well with the cut in the ground, staying on strongly inside the final furlong, having initially been outpaced, to just get the better of outsider Night Carnation. Clearly progressing fast, he will improve for a longer trip next season and looks a decent prospect."

third race - "Master Of Hounds, the pick of Johnny Murtagh, was having his first run since landing his maiden at the fourth time of asking back in July. This was obviously a big step up, but he was very closely matched with the unbeaten Dunboyne Express and there was a good chance the extra distance would help him. He stayed on without ever really threatening the first pair and left the impression more of a test would´ve seen him in a better light. The ground was also probably easy enough for his liking and he should make up into very nice horse at around 1m2f next term, but he wouldn´t be certain to get further than that.

Native Khan made it 2-2 when readily winning the Group 3 Solario Stakes and bypassed last week´s Dewhurst for this. He had something to prove on the slower surface"

Oh and Newmarket drains very, very quickly especially on Guineas day when the sun shines and he has put that on because it's fast and will still be good to firm tomorrow and possibly firmer if the sun really beats down which the satellite map alludes to !

Im saying that half the jocks on any given day will say what the trainer wants them to say, take Chelt this year, in the same day you had the total opposite opinions on the state of the going.

Half the racecourses in the uk have shallow root growth due to years of overwatering, in this case Donnys it was virtually wiped out this winter and we saw the state of it this spring. What you see nowdays can be similar to when it rains on some dirt tracks in the US where they kick off the top of what is underneath quite fast ground.

id say around 4/10 going reports are wrong nowdays

I dont get it,horses that pull hard early need fast run races.Frankels problem is that he seems to flatten out when let down [altho he runs on very well!!].
The worry is that he is vulnerable to something that will sit on his tail and nab him on the line.Frankel won last year IN SPITE OF a slow pace, NOT because of it.

Lots of theory, lots of opinion.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow, I have Frankel at double figures so hopefully it will fulfill its potential. Can understand the reasoning why it shouldn't be 1/2 but just still think it is best horse and will win. Whatever happens, hope we get a true champion

Secretgambler there's one thing that I think just doesn't compute. If you do this for a living, why are you on here posting and arguing with these people? For an ego boost? Surely if you were a pro, then you'd be out enjoying your winnings.

I actually agree with you on some points, I think that Casamento was definitely overpriced, and took some of the 16s available ew the other day. I think that your view on Pathfork being a specialist 2yo is wrong though, he always looked as if he had a lot of filling out to do, unlike Frankel, who was so muscle-bound as a 2yo.

Roobuck I agree with you, in that I hope we get a proper champion. However, I think that Frankel is obviously the most likely winner, but that doesn't mean that he should be 1/2. Before his withdrawal, Taqleeb was obviously the most likely winner of the lincoln, but does that mean he should've been 1/2? Frankel is the most likely winner, but imo shouldn't be that short, with so many unknowns.

Casamento 3 pts win, odds 29.55
Roderic O'Connor 1 pt win, odds 11
Trying to place lay Frankel at 1.16.

Enjoy the race.

Great thread for the most part. Not sure some of the point scoring at the end is necessary, opinions differ.

Not a betting race for me, unless I can find something I like to double with Frankel.

Someone mentioned that a Greenham winner hadn't won the Guineas for over 30 years, i believe Wollow did the double trained by a Henry Cecil so he is following  the same route. Personally i think Frankel will win ,but will back Saamid as an E/W selection, 2 good 2 year old runs and the trainer and jockey in form.

Maybe if the one in front hadn't set such a slow pace he would have got beat [;)]

Great win for Frankel, best performance I have ever seen on a racecourse.

oh and pathfork beat casamento sg

amazing performance from the winner, the form is pointless unfortunately!

Yeah pretty much everything beat Pathfork and Casamento...as expected that formline didn't amount to a hill of beans. Don't think it's pointless though and happy enough with my 50/1 trends placer Native Khan who will be interesting stepped up to 10f.

I sheepishly face another large slice of humble pie for having the temerity to try and get Frankel beaten. Good call secret gambler, in my view Native Khan clear second best horse in race. Losing money and face has never been this enjoyable. I was in the stands, laughing out loud after 3 furlongs - reminded me of Hawk Wing in the Lockinge but even more devastating. Glad I can say I was there, anyway.

What must be particularly galling for the layers like Kinsem (for a place!!!) is that it was so obvious to the rest of us from September last year. How can people NOT have seen it???

Fair enough Jonibake, no answer to that one fro  me!!

Mordin has had a real blind spot for Frankel for a while now, I wonder where he will go from here.

Suspect he won't have the humility to admit he was wrong but instead look for some further obscure reason to oppose the horse.

jonibake
30 Apr 11 19:36 Joined: 18 Nov 10 | Topic/replies: 121 | Blogger: jonibake's blog
What must be particularly galling for the layers like Kinsem (for a place!!!) is that it was so obvious to the rest of us from September last year. How can people NOT have seen it???

That would be a good post if I did lay Frankel for a place.

Since we are aftertiming and crowing about this and that l did back Frankel at evens in my 2000/1000/Oaks/Derby annual classics doubles. trebles, fourfold.

Fascinating research there Howellsy.

They say it often runs like a 8f sprint...

Sure did today!

Did you get the tricast Howellsy, Numbers 1,4 and 5 from your ratings...?

What else have you got, Kincsem?

Always interested in your Derby thoughts...

kincsem Joined: 12 Apr 04
Replies: 2028 17 Oct 10 01:02   


I'll lay Frankel for a few hundred a month between now and May.

Why?

He is by a middle distance sire.
An early colt (Feb), well developed, so physical advantage now.
Slow away, does not settle, 2000 Guineas will be a bigger field.
Three of his four runs had soft in the description.
Short price.

Only laid him for the win then?

Didn't lay him at all.

The Morning Line

If you were watching this morning Frankie Dettori said there was a strong wind from the stand side.  I'm not sure of this but I think he said stall 1 used to be on the stand side but now they have changed it so that stall 1 is on the far side.  He said horses drawn low today were at an advantage as they would have cover from the wind.

Finish___Stall___Comments
1___1___Soon clear and led
2___5___Held up towards rear
3___11___Held up off the pace
4___6___Off pace in midfield
5___4___Off pace in midfield
6___7___Behind
7___2___Prominent
8___13___Chased winner
9___8___Held up
10___10___Chased winner (Frankie)
11___3___Prominent
12___9___Always in rear
13___12___Headway into midfield
______
Pearson___0.44___Breeze from stand side?

Weather conditions: Dry, breezy. (race report)

If you watch the replay on the Racing Post site you hear that Dubawi Gold was out the back, then made his move around the field to the right.  I assume this was to get shelter from the breeze.

The Pearson number above compares the finish position to the draw position, and gives a high correlation between low draw and low finish (0.00 would say random relationship, the range is from -1.00 to +1.00; a 1.00 would be draw 1, finish 1, draw 2 finish 2, draw 3 finish 3 and so on).

I'm not saying Frankel won because of the draw as he was out front taking the wind from the start, and Frankel draw 1 and 1st place improves the Pearson a bit..  Just saying the draw influenced the placings imo.

.

Nothing yet jair1970.  No investment except two small doubles/trebles/four folds with Roderic O'Connor and Seville in them.

Frankel has the pedigree chart for the Derby but I doubt he will be there in June.
Reasons: he is a heavily muscled horse; he wants to tear away from the stalls;  stallion money is in milers (10f max).

Newmarket 17:25 1 mile
Finish___Stall___
1___1___
2___3___
3___8___
4___2___
5___7___
6___6___
7___4___
8___5___
______
Pearson___0.38___

The real stallion money though is from Derby winners..a licence to print money. I am pretty sure that if he does line up and win the Dante he will be at Epsom, all it takes is some restraint then cut him loose after Tattenham corner and let that big, galloping stride see him all the way to the finishing line...hopefully. He tore away from the stalls today as that was the plan, Epsom will see a different gameplan and if anyone can execute one for the Derby it will be Cecil. Love the Dubawi Gold shelter from the breeze comment btw...quality.

Jair 1970,

NO, I did not have the tricast, so busy was I in trying to oppose Frankel! I went for the other pair in my top 5.

Well done to winners yesterday, as someone has already said that was the most impressive race I have ever seen.

Joni, it wasn't that I didn't see and know how good he was, I confess to missing all the decent prices and as soon as his price got to evens or below I was then willing to try and take him on. I have never doubted his ability and in this instance trying to pick something to beat him was a pointless exercise.

Am gutted that this year I have to miss my first Dante in 8 years and will miss a chance to see him race in person.

Kincsem - stop embarrasing yourself son. You posted the day before that you were laying him for a place. Have the guts to put your hand up.

By: This user is offline. kincsem
Date Joined: 12 Apr 04 Add contact | Send message
When: 29 Apr 11 22:58 Joined: Date Joined: 12 Apr 04 | Topic/replies: 2,033 | Blogger: kincsem's blog
Casamento 3 pts win, odds 29.55
Roderic O'Connor 1 pt win, odds 11
Trying to place lay Frankel at 1.16.

Enjoy the race.

Frankel didn't trade at 1.16 for a place so I did not place lay him.
I did not lay him for the win either for a few hundred a month as I said I would.
The reason was a family member was in financial difficulty so I gave them all my available cash a few months ago.
I backed Casamento and Roderic O'Connor for small money in the 2000 Guineas.
I backed Maqaasid in the 1000 Guineas based on my draw analysis, and becuase her sire is Green Desert, known for fast ground preference.

If you want me to put my hand up I just did

In other news I made €3k last week taking a piece of a player who cashed in the Irish Open (poker).

.

Whatever about his chances of actually running in the Derby, if Cecil decides to run him at Epsom he'll win, that I've NO doubt. I feel it's a matter of Henry training the horse + jockey to hold on and then push the gas as they go down the hill and off he'll go in "Slip Anchor-style" and win and leave the Derby field behind him.

Bookies offering 6/4, he's up to 10s in here, get on I say, take the 'risk' that he might not run however.
Brief apologies about the (.) earlier.

Either hes very good horse that can win even tho he needs something to tow him along,and even then he just goes to the front and his sheer pace buries them,or theres not much around to beat him.
Second horse nothing special.
By the way,most good punters dont find time to get on here,just checking if anybody goods joined,STILL talking about Martingale?!!!,god help me!!!.

Pipedreamer - judging by the quality of the above post it's a good job you don't have time to waste on us