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mythical prince
21 Apr 11 13:37
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Date Joined: 20 Sep 06
| Topic/replies: 3,712 | Blogger: mythical prince's blog
seems hung up on this idea that he needs a slowly run-race... his strongest piece of evidence is his maiden ffs Laugh

questions his ability to see out the guineas distance but does he not seem to notice that the strongest parts of frankels races seem to be at the end, and that hes by galileo? Confused

doubtless kevbettingsupervirgin will be laying frankel for his bank after his hero has made such comments.

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Replies: 206
By:
Michrich
When: 21 Apr 11 14:11
Hi prince, was just going to post about this myself but you beat me too it. He seems to suggest Frankel would be better going for the Golden Jubilee than the Derby[:o]

He also wrote the stat about winners of the Greenham not following up in the Guineas due to the fact it is over 7F and that there must have been doubts about Frankel seeing a mile out, and that's why HRAC sent him there. I'm fairly certain I read that he was sent there because he would have had a penalty in the Craven and not in the Greenham.

In terms of his evidence he says

Last year Frankel was very well suited by the slow early pace and sprint finish that's the norm in European two year old racing. When he won over a mile in mud on his debut he ran the first three furlongs at a rate of 14.5 seconds per furlong and the last five at 12.1. When he won over the same distance in the Royal Lodge he ran the first five furlongs at a rate of 13.2 seconds per furlong and the last three furlongs at a rate of 11.9 seconds per furlong. When he won the Dewhurst he covered the first half mile at a pace of 12.6 seconds per furlong and the last three furlongs at 11.7 seconds per furlong. The pace was even more lopsidedly slow early in his other two year old win.

Which would seem to suggest that the majority of his runs have been slow run affairs, which he also backed up with evidence from the Greenham being slowly run at first and then Frankel covering the last 5 furlongs in a faster time than a group class sprinter the day before (albeit from a rolling start). I remember seeing a documentary about Dancing Brave and it said when he lost the Derby he covered the last 3 furlongs in what was then the fastest final 3 ever recorded. Personally I think it will depend more on how Frankel is ridden than the pace of the race as if he can run 5 furlongs and if they leave him to much to do at the end of the race it won't matter how good he is. Given that the Ballydoyle pacemaker nearly won the Derby last year Frankel must have a chance in a slowly run race, regardless of any question marks about stamina.

To throw another spanner in the works I have just read this from Tom Queally on his Racing UK blog

"He was by no means fully fit at Newbury so he will kick on from there, and we have a pacemaker now, so I think all boxes are ticked."
By:
flyingbolt
When: 21 Apr 11 14:18
Mordin has lost me on this one.

On the one hand he's saying Frankel should go for the big sprints............and then goes on to say he thinks he'll win top races over a mile and a quarter.
By:
neill d
When: 21 Apr 11 14:27
This kind of analysis seems less relevant given that he always seems to have so much left in the tank at the end of all his races, maybe he's only going as fast as he needs to in the final few furlongs as Queally knows he has everything covered.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Apr 11 14:33
I believe Frankel still has it to prove as a 3yo and can see him getting beaten in the Guineas, but talk of him being a non stayer is just drivel.
By:
jonibake
When: 21 Apr 11 14:35
Posted this on another thread but seems more relevant here -

Nick Mordin's weekly report makes for interesting reading. It seems that he is another one in the "Frankel is a sprinter" brigade. He reasons that, because all of Frankel's wins have come in slowly run races, he may well be found out in a truly run one mile race.

The problem is his evidence is flawed. His first point is that Frankel "struggled to win first time out by half a length." I challenge anyone to watch that race again and tell me he struggled to win. He cruised to the front and only had to be pushed out in a typical Tom Queally ride for a newcomer. The horse took an eternity to pull up (listen to Nick Luck and Steve Mellish) AND immediately after the race they interviewed Henry Cecil who told them that he hadnt really done anything with the horse.

Even if he had "struggled" can one really form a convincing argument about a horse from his first run? If we did that then we would all have written off Sea The Stars.

The second part of his argument is that he is a three parts brother to Bullet Train ("whom he resembles pyysically???!!!!")and that horse has gone right off the boil since winning the Lingfield Trial. My answer to this would be a simple "So What?!" They are clearly very different horses with very different ability and just because one of them has been disappointing it does not follow that the other one will.

Once again it is a case of someone who took a view on the horse very early on, has been proved wrong and is now trying to find arguments that are not there. He has even joined the band of those gutless few who are saying that even if he does win the Guineas he is no good because a) there are no worthy opponents or b) the pace is was too slow or c) the pace was too fast or d) he pulled in the first 9 yards.

As you can see it gets on my goat! History is full of cases of people not believing what they are seeing. "Our deepest fear in not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us."

He is probably right in one thing he says. Frankel COULD be a champion sprinter. He probably will be a champion miler and he might even be a champion middle distance horse. He could well be powerful beyond measure.

I hope that IF Frankel proves himself in the Guineas, a classic horse race, he will be given the credit he so deserves. I very much doubt it though!
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 21 Apr 11 14:41
Rolling start LOl....send him trotting imo.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Apr 11 15:09
Nick Mordin once said that Mid Dancer and Central House were faster horses than Kauto Star, enough evidence never to take him seriously.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 21 Apr 11 15:15
yes its a bit silly from mordin, his argument carries absolutely no weight.
By:
penzance
When: 21 Apr 11 15:19
just had a look at past Royal Lodge wnrs,can't see a sprinter
amongst them.Others on here might recognise a few though.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 21 Apr 11 15:22
id argue that royal lodge winners dont tend to go on to be superstars but like its horse racing, things change.

hes a beast but he still has decent horses to best in pathfork , native khan and even roderic again. if he wins going away like his other races by 5L then we can declare him  a superstar imo.
By:
jonibake
When: 21 Apr 11 15:30
absolutely agree ILWB!
By:
dogbolter
When: 21 Apr 11 15:40
I like reading Mordin because his views are at the very least different from the default 'shall I tip the fav or 2nd fav' which you see in pretty much all the rest of the press.

(Or if you're Hunter/Heyhoe for W'ender it's 'shall I pick fav to beat 2f or the other way round?')

But it does feel contrary for the sake of being contrary - he refuses to have the same opinion as anyone about anything - which is where I think he falls down.

Even when he likes a horse that seems obvious it's never just a good horse, it's invariably 'the best horse/speed fig (often dubiously adjusted) for 5 years'

Regarding Frankel, I think his reasoning is somewhat bizarre. But there's nothing wrong with trying to pick holes in a short priced hotpot, making money is all about finding an edge over the market. Where's your edge if you think a long odds on fav is gonna win a race?

Personally I think Frankel probably wins, I wouldnt back him at odds on, I'll throw away a small e/w bet on something else not expecting to profit, but at big odds you dont have to be right every time. At long odds on you sorta do.
By:
Ramruma
When: 21 Apr 11 22:37
To be fair to Mordin, a certain Newmarket rose-grower has also voiced doubts about Frankel's stamina, at least beyond a mile.
By:
zilzal1
When: 21 Apr 11 22:44
Lets face it, if you aint on at Fancy prices there are a few questions still to be asked and, at the price he's well opposable. TMHO he either wins or bombs and i'll be trying to get him out of the f/c places.
By:
eric_morris
When: 22 Apr 11 05:21
ilikewavingatbuses stating mordins argument carries absolutely no weight .... LOL that's still about 100 kiloweight more than his.

LaughLaughLaugh
By:
eric_morris
When: 22 Apr 11 05:22
zilzal1places forecasts yet more evidence what a mug he is. Doesnt put his bets up here just waxes lyrical, has no nads.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 22 Apr 11 05:42
eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 2950 22 Apr 11 06:22 
zilzal1places forecasts yet more evidence what a mug he is. Doesnt put his bets up here just waxes lyrical, has no nads.


most ironic statement ive ever read.Laugh

coming from a bloke who says he backed world domination @ 20s after he wins his maidenLaugh
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 22 Apr 11 05:43
before preferably ta[;)]
By:
zilzal1
When: 22 Apr 11 08:29
Eric, if you would care to go to the Politics forum you will see three threads, Cheltenham, Aintree and Ayr where ive snaffled 3 f/cs paying Dividends of £46/£83/£60

Gosh and they're all before the events
By:
eric_morris
When: 22 Apr 11 08:33
Mug bet you will be way down overall ... deary me has the nerve to stalk others who have a clue.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 22 Apr 11 09:31
i just wonder what will happen if frankel gets into a head to head  battle in the last few furlongs or so in the guineas, we know he can cruise up and go past horses and to be fair he went past rod o c smoothly but he was  wide of him ,if it comes to a toe to toe war with somethiing that can keep finding extra  it will be very intersting ,he may well be a superstar and dissmisss them all but the guineas will be run at a good pace  and if there are any chinks in frankels armour this is the race they will be exposed, also  there is pathfork who is also unbeaten and we dont know how good he is ,we know he can put his head down and battle as showed when beating casamento who hardly let the form down in the r.p ,fury is another unbeaten colt ho could run well , at 4/6 frankel  on here i am a layer and if he gets any shorter i will go in again.

he may well prove to be a superstar but i have seen a lot of them turn out to be more hype than substance ,we will see soon .
By:
cryoftruth
When: 22 Apr 11 09:50
I like quite abit of what Mordin says, I like it when he starts with an idea and develops it and then tests it out and shows how it can be profitable.

However I detest his writing style, his dogmatism and his utter arrogance.

I also detest his refusal to admit when proven wrong.

Quite aside from the complete drivel he has written about Frankel; his stuff before last year's Arc was shocking tripe. he had Bekhabad and Planteur down as thre fastest horses in the world; and even claimed that the pace of their trial made them the record breakers. 

Well Timeform, an organisation with a record in respect to race times, quite rightly had Workforce's derby as the exceptional time figure.

Now before the Arc Mordin was tipping Planteur and Bekhabad to be 1st and 2nd and even suggested I seem to remember a forecast bet - he was quite adamant about the fact that they were the best horses in the race.

now it was perfectly obvious to many people that the best horse with the best form and the best speed and the best speed figures was Workforce and those who took strength from the fact that Mordin was against them made a good prfoit, The idiots who were duped into following Mordin went broke.

Now I read Mordin again this season on the subject of last year's Src. As you can imagine he was full of remorse for leading the gullible down the wrong track and losing them money. Like hell he was. in spite of all the evidence to the contrary, he was till going on about how fast Bekhabad is. its hard to credit the man. I suppose he is just a tube.
By:
Dark Destroyer
When: 22 Apr 11 09:57
The thing which has always puzzled me about Mordin is/are his ratings where something like 75% of the horses he mentions, more than that if you exclude those who were well beaten, are rated between 38 & 42. This incredibly narrow band seems to cover all sorts up to and including various world-beaters (such as Planteur & Bekhabad to name but one of many examples).

Can anyone explain this to me?
By:
cryoftruth
When: 22 Apr 11 10:05
he is a tube.
By:
jair1970
When: 22 Apr 11 10:18
I think the idea is that he posts horses that have put up performances of a high level to his scale.
I like the guy.  He's an original thinker and there aren't too many of them about in this game.  Doesn't make him a tipster though.
By:
dogbolter
When: 22 Apr 11 10:21
He's more credible when he sticks to his guns - it's when he chops and changes his opinions that it all really goes pear shaped.

Just look back at his previous comments on Kauto Star who was definitely on the downgrade after too many top class runs, then back to his best/fastest chaser for 5 years (after a KG win), then on downgrade, then even faster (repeat ad nauseum).

Or Long Run who was absolutely an out and out 3miler, then definitely an Arkle horse. He was also a dodgy jumper, now he'll apparently lose his next run if returned to easier French fences.

Not sure he really needs to show remorse for getting the forecast bet wrong in the Arc (and what kind of madman 'goes broke' on a forecast bet?), there's loads of tipsters who regularly show no remorse for tipping favs who get stuffed.
By:
keynes
When: 22 Apr 11 10:30
Mordin is well worth listening to. From the outset this year, he said Master Minded should have stepped up in trip and that Mikhael DHagenet would not make a chaser. Both views are now widely accepted, but were outrageous when he first broached them.
His views on Frankel have not yet been tested. Frankel has never faced a strong pace, and one has to be concerned how he will handle it. Last day, he took an age to put away a listed class horse coming off his favoured slow place; that hardly makes one optimistic of how he'll cope with a superior rival coming off a strong pace.
By:
mythical prince
When: 22 Apr 11 11:56
cryoftruth, I think the general consensus was that planteur and bekhabad weren't great french 3 year old colts and that was my gut feeling as well but you are right, mordin always tends to take the opposite view.

its interesting that he's banging on about planteur this year and how fast he ran on his comeback run, and how he'd be a great bet for the king george cus he's too fast for any three year old to beat him (seems a strange statement given we don't know how good the 3 year olds are, presumably the sea the stars from two years ago would have had no chance? Mischief )

he can get it bang on sometimes, like at cheltenham two years back he tipped winner after winner, but more often than not the level of arrogance is just annoying.
By:
mythical prince
When: 22 Apr 11 11:58
keynes, given that frankel supposedly needs a slow pace, (something i find utterly ridiculous. horses like frankel who travel so well invariably look even better coming off a fast pace) how do you explain the fact they are putting a pacemaker in for him in the guineas? Confused
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 22 Apr 11 12:35
mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 2255 22 Apr 11 12:58 
keynes, given that frankel supposedly needs a slow pace, (something i find utterly ridiculous. horses like frankel who travel so well invariably look even better coming off a fast pace) how do you explain the fact they are putting a pacemaker in for him in the guineas?


- yes i can see how how u think this MIGHT be true but he hasnt actually proved it yet, he might just not pull and find nothing 2out when horses are still going as good as him.

yes its clutching at straws but hes a 4/9 fav who still isnt totally bomb proof as he is yet to face particular conditions.imoLove
By:
mythical prince
When: 22 Apr 11 12:39
bank of frankel paying 70 percent interest on here ilwab.I know many on here might find this a controversial statement, but its just possible that henry cecil might know more about horse racing than nick mordin Shocked
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 22 Apr 11 12:45
oh im kinda agreeing with ya MP, hes a machine but hes not a shortie i wanna be with facing really good horses(imo), just price with me, i do back odds on but ive always like pathfork and this is a classic, there are far better odds on shots out there that dond have to beat unbeaten g1 winning 2 yr olds u know. i totally disagree with mordin.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 22 Apr 11 13:04
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 22 Apr 11 13:45
oh im kinda agreeing with ya MP, hes a machine but hes not a shortie i wanna be with facing really good horses(imo), just price with me, i do back odds on but ive always like pathfork and this is a classic, there are far better odds on shots out there that dond have to beat unbeaten g1 winning 2 yr olds u know.

An excellent analysis of the situationBlush
By:
keynes
When: 22 Apr 11 13:15
Fact is, nobody knows how he will fare coming off a blistering pace when faced with top class opposition. Certainly, I dont want to be taking 1/2 odds to find out. However, it is a little troubling how a substantially lower rated (non-staying) horse seemingly had Franklin in trouble for a furlong last day. Franklin took an age to pick up, and started raising his head awkwardly to one side; most disturbing was the lack of instant acceleration of a slow (yes, slow) pace, that is so characteristic of a top class horse. Clearly he only beat Excelebration because of stamina, and he grinded out a wholly unimpressive victory. Clearly the horse is still very green and not used to battling; again, hardly the characteristics of a 1/2 shot for the Guineas.
By:
mythical prince
When: 22 Apr 11 14:18
you seem to have high standards keynes. I fail to see how it was "wholly unimpressive"

but you are right he ground him down with extra stamina. a lot of horses don't get home over the stiff mile of the guineas. we can be pretty sure that frankel will.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 22 Apr 11 14:21
yes i though frankel was quite impressive the last day, it was over 7 after all and feel he should have been beating the 2nd like that anyway but the important thing is that he did in the end.

the mile will suit him down to the ground, hes the one they have to beat....obviously.
By:
jonibake
When: 22 Apr 11 14:23
Keynes - Clearly you have no idea what the word "clearly" means but love using it. Your post is wholly unimpressive and the biggest load of old tosh I have read in some time.

You are worried that he might not be as effective off a "blistering" pace but were also disturbed that he couldnt find "instant acceleration" off a slow one. So what DOES he want?

I love the line about beating Excelebration because of stamina! So you think if the two ran over 6 furlongs Exc would win?

Your right about one thing - he is not used to battling - he's too far ahead to need to. But if you really watched this horse and if you had even the tiniest clue about horse racing you would see how this horse, far from raising his head awkwardly,  puts his head down, sticks his neck out and gallops all the way to the line. He is a glorious mover and the racing world knows it. Other trainers, other jockeys anyone with half a clue.

I can't wait for next Saturday so he can prove himself yet again.
By:
secretgambler
When: 22 Apr 11 14:57
Can someone tell me the last Guineas winner bred by a sire that didn't either place in a Guineas or win a GP1 between 6f-1m ?
By:
mythical prince
When: 22 Apr 11 15:16
dont think galileo had many chances to in fairness...
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