Seville - Derby

I don't want to be left with egg on my face, but I think this story doesnt apply to Seville, just that the final team hasnt been sorted. He said after the Dante he was very happy with the run and next stop Epsom, and there's no way Seville will be run over 10f instead of the derby, so I think his quotes are more to do with which others will line up.

Maybe...

But in a season where O'Brien has said pretty much fk all to the media and has made precicely ZERO statements from off track, surely this is a worry.

I'm thinking they've had the Coolmore sit-down in the wake of the trials and some difficult calls are being made.

It's got to be possible that Pour Moi is coming over but in the place of either Seville (I reckon) or Recital (I don't reckon).

Im actually thinking they may send Recital to France as he appears to have a turn of foot which Seville does not.

i.e Recital could win over 10f, Seville cannot, not in G1 company.

I'm not having that Sint but where Coolmore are concerned nothing surprises!

They having being trying to sell Montjeu's speed for ages.

St Nick the glaring example.

Recital to France and then to the July Cup...

recital very weak on here at the moment

Agree with Sint, Recital much more likely to run over 10f than Seville imo.

Seville is going to Epsom.

''Ramruma watching different game imo''


I'd like to take that back on reflection. If you watched the Dante not knowing anything about the horses involved, i can see how you might feel  Seville shaped like he may not have stayed. However, in my experience, there is practically zero chance that a horse with Seville's pedigree would have failed to stay a slowly-run 10f given he settled like a lamb.

"If you watched the Dante not knowing anything about the horses" is the key phrase here

Seville didn't stay???? Which wally made that comment?

That horse stays all day long, Seville was outspeeded in the Dante by Calrton House a star of the future.

That's why Seville got beat.

See what I mean, you get some right muppets on this forum. Open your eyes!

You're blocked!

lol - who the hell is this muppet (Duncan idaho) ?

I never knew he existed lol.

When are we likely to get the nod from Ballydoyle? It seems Pour Moi is confirmed, but the betting has been very tentative around Seville and Recital...

I think punters should stop mentioning that odious outfit. They want everyone talking about them to add to the hype. They're like divas arriving late on stage. It doesn't matter how many times you all ask the same question, they simply won't tell anyone their plans until as late as possible. They're the only people in racing that i've ever had a real dislike of. Just accept that any ante post race with their horses involved is ruined.

i think it's fair enough that they should wait until after Pour Moi's trip to Epsom today to commit to any decision. they have selection probs cos they have several candidates....why does this make them odious?

agree graeame, see my thread on contrast between cecil and this mob, also duncan you say after today to commit , try thursday next week before we hear anything from these really disliked outfit.

they regularly have 3 or 4 candidates for a big race....most other trainers have 1 or 2 max...there's your difference

"i think it's fair enough that they should wait until after Pour Moi's trip to Epsom today to commit to any decision. they have selection probs cos they have several candidates....why does this make them odious?"


I don't believe for a second that they don't know who is running at Epsom. This game isn't rocket science. They do this time and time again. They also know when their well backed horses are not going to run a race, without even saying so as Rondetto stated on another thread. I think his example was SNA being battered in heavily on his debut at long odds on, only for it to get beat by donkeys,and improve massively beyond recognition for his following race. We could be here all day talking about how everyone despises them, but i'd be contradicting myself by even talking about them. I'm not going to reply again on this thread about them, as British trainers deserve more time for this British classic.

What you believe is of little consequence. You'd be first on here whinging if they were to announce which horses were going for Epsom and something was to happen in the meantime and they changed their mind.
The Derby wouldn't be half of what it is without them.

i honestly enjoyed racing better without them,

Same here Elis, and there are many like us. Try not to make up rubbish to substantiate your point Tavaris. I don't whinge about horses that don't run. It's not called ante post betting for nothing. Many of us have legitimate problems with some of these trainers, and O'brien incorporates every single thing we dislike about trainers. We're entitled to our opinions, just like you are yours. I'd be more than happy to see a British classic without their horses.

Very weak today....

Betfair market would indicate Seville and Roderic O'Connor to France.

Surely not.

I understand one may go but not both.

With Pour Moi heading to Epsom, I was thinking Ballydoyle might send two to France, you don't think he'll send two Sint?

crazy to send Seville to France...horse is gagging for 1½m...dont see why you'd send a horse for palpably the wrong race just cos you had other runners in the right race

obrien's best hope is Recital, and with an Obrian Vs Fabre contest going on behind the scenes, theres no way O Brian would suggest sending Recital to France

Viva, tbh I thought Seville was crying out for another 2 furlongs, so would be surprised if they sent him to france. But then again we dont know how fit he was the other day at York, some of Aidans have improved out of all recognition this season.

I personally thought Recital would be more suited to France, if they were going to send one over, because he appears to have more speed than Seville and it'll be more conducive to winning over 10f. I'd be very,very surprised if they sent them both over but im only financially involved in Recital. If he goes, so be it.

I agree with Graeme to a certain extent. This always happens re the Derby...not so others Group 1s. Their is always this kinda wait and see who is going to turn up and who isn't. I do think they know exactly who they are running but i think they could be scratching around for Jockeys to ride them in this current case.

Also with Coolmore their are commercial issue's at Heart. Especially with Galileo having such a massive lead in the sire's championship they may see it as a perfect time to get Montjeu up the ladder by sending 2 Montjeu's to Epsom as French Prize Money does not count in the sire's race. The Prizemoney in The Derby is immense and so they run so many to get those sire's up to the top of the Championship. I think Recital will run as will Menphis Tenensse and that Rag Galileo that won the Chester trial.  Seville looks like he may head to france....Soullimon prob would have given them a big idea what feel he gave them and so he may keep the ride in France if he isn't engaged elsewhere.

Sint I agree Recital is quicker than Seville, but personally feel he'll appreciate the 12f just as much as Seville would. I just think he's a better horse full stop, quicker and more stamina.

Plus they keep saying they're only going to send one horse to France, Recital has had 2 pacemakers in all of his starts so far. If he was going to France I think they'd have to take Memphis Tennessee and/or another horse to make sure the 10f is ran to suit Recital.

To me Seville is a good example of a follower and not a leader. Its not in his nature to win races unless
the opposition is poor as in his maiden win. In the Dante he ran along with the third horse then when
Carlton House came along he even lent in towards him whilst following him. Of all the horses in the Derby
he's the most likely to come second. If I could get 3/1 on him coming 2nd or 3rd I'd probably have a
decent bet as he's very reliable and looks well balanced also.

Not so sure Tinkler. In his maiden win and the RP Trophy he raced alone and they wanted him to have a lead in the Dante because of that. I am sure he will win Group 1 races just not sure it will be the Derby. Have to say it is seriously tiresome not knowing which will run. Don't know what AOB was doing at Breakfast with Stars - he tolds us nothing we didnt already know. The racing world has to rely on Maureen's tweets ffs!! Pathetic.

Personally would be amazed if Seville didnt run. Clearly crying out for mile and a half and, as previously stated, a very uncomplicated, well balanced colt. In total contrast to Recital I might add - cannot see him handling Epsom.

I respect the 'early warning system' Betfair no doubt is but i never fell for the WORKFORCE patter last year about him not running in the Derby and i'm certainly not falling for it this year with SEVILLE,this horse has NO other target other than the Irish Derby after he's won at Epsom,i took the 12's earlier and am taking 11's now!Seamie will ride and he will power clear 2 out just like High Chapparal did for Mr Tabor!

everyone says which1 or 2 is going to the french, why do we assume this it wouldnt surprise me that the bloody lot go to epsom, and imo if he does send one itll be rod to longchamp

agreed, think seville, recital and two pacemakers will go to epsom, roderic to france

come on, i thought one of you would have spotted my deliberate error on last post by now

Chantilly!!!

Looks like he runs at Epsom.

Woderwic going to France, so that's one down...

Joniblake
He raced alone in the rp trophy but at no stage was he in front he just ran along to the side of them and when
Casamento went on he just followed him just as he did Carlton House in the Dante. I don't count maiden wins
when looking for horse Characteristics as their often very weak. Seville looks to have a lot of natural
ability but I feel this mentality of following is a big Flaw for him. He may grow out of it but personally
I think he'll run up a lot of places in the top races this year. He also appears to keep a little bit back
in his races which should keep him in good stead for running a lot. I agree Recital is unlikley to be suited by Epsom and looks an Irish Derby type(similar to dylan thomas).

I am hoping for quite a forceful ride on Seville, kicking on for home quite early on. Last thing he wants is trying to outsprint some of the others.

My initial reaction after the race was that Seville was the 2nd string behind Recital and that he'd struggle to reverse form with Carlton House, but when you think about it objectively, as i'm on Recital at 14's, there is plenty of reason to believe why Seville could reverse the form imo. It was such an unsatisfactory race.

As mentioned further down on the thread, Jockeys bookings will be enlightening imo and a big positive to whichever horse gets Seamus Heffernan. He rides Epsom very well and did so with At First Sight last year. In Fact, I plan to back whatever he rides in the Oaks & Derby if I have not backed them already.

I'm sure Carlton House will improve for 12f, but I think Seville NEEDS 12f and the faster they go the better. I'm fairly confident Seville will turn around the form with Carlton House come Derby day.

I have a funny feeling Treasure Beach will do best of the O'Brien qaurtet with Nathaniel another decent e/w shout against the market leaders.

Sorry Tinkler - respect your opinion but cant agree. I think he was just beaten by two better horses on the day. Don't see him being a follower and don't see him having a mental flaw......unlike his stablemate Recital!

I think Seville will stride into a place and will be made fav for the Ledger after the race. Paceless horses don't win the Derby.

Seville/Native Khan would be my picks at the current prices.Carlton House is absolute joke price.Not saying he cant win but should be around 5/2, 3/1 mark.Personally think Seville WILL prove to be the better over 1 mile 4.

Haven't had the time to read all this yet, but it strikes me that this horse has shown a suprising amount of speed in his career so far, given that his breeding suggests he's been racing over trips far too short for him.

The chance to run over the Derby trip, in a race not run at a crawl, could easily see him reverse the Dante form - the different test is likely to suit him better than the fav, imho.

He's also out of a mare capable of a Group One level of form herself - this has been an important part of the make up of plenty of Derby winners in recent times...

''Seville looks to have a lot of natural
ability but I feel this mentality of following is a big Flaw for him. He may grow out of it but personally
I think he'll run up a lot of places in the top races this year. He also appears to keep a little bit back
in his races ''

This 'mentality of following' almost certainly exists only in your head! He has a solid 12f+ pedigree....every chance Casamento was simply too quick over 1m on Good ground at 2 yrs and C House was too quick in very slowly-run 10f race on reappearance. Whether Seville quite has the class to win a Derby is open to debate but truly-run 12f is when this horse shows what he's made of and i dont think he'll be far away.

Horses my like to run in the herd and avoid going to the front.  But the horse will be trained on the gallops to go past his lead horse and "win" the gallop.

Duncan
You state "I don't think he'll be far away" i agree he won't be far away when he follows the winner into
2nd or 3rd place. Seville has bags of pace and class he just doesn't like being in front I think he gets
lonely and wants the company of other horses , he feels safer.

I think both arguments being levelled at Seville are folly. I think his RP and Dante runs both show he has quite a bit of pace, I think he just lacks acceleration which has seen him outpointed in both of those races by something with more of a turn of foot. As for being a follower, that may be true, but I just think he has bumped into one better suited to conditions in his last two races.

He may well finish 2nd or 3rd but certainly not because he is a "follower"

Soumi on board

albion

I agree with you, but there is a distinct possibility that he will find one or two too good at Epsom as well, in the conditions. He should improve for a faster pace and the extra distance, in fact he is bound to improve. However the Derby (unless its soft going) does tend to be won by a horse with a turn of foot. Seville may just lack the speed required. Good horse (actually a really good looking brute) though - good luck.

Yes he might do cot, I do think he is a great each way bet at the prices tho. He will definitely need a positive ride, hopefully soumi will send him on just after tattenham corner, because if he is having to quicken in the final couple of furlongs his chance will have gone imo.

I managed to get a really good book on the Derby mainly through laying Frankel at low prices to lose fortunes. Now we have got here I find the actual race is as open as any I can ever remember.

Your choice has an obvious chance of reversing form because of the extra distance and the extra pace of the Derby. Recital is very able though maybe a bit dodgy.

The queen's horse seems to me to be a terrible price, but is bred to be good,. is bred to stay and is unbeaten and did win the Dante pretty comfortably showing bags of speed.

The 2 frenchmen seem to me to have serious chances, the Aga's horse would not be coming if they believed he could not reverse the form with Pour Moi.

A very tricky and open race!

Seville is the one for me. I hope he's ridden prominently, following an O'Brien frontrunner and kicks on 3 furlongs out. Reminds me of High Chaparral the year he beat Hawkwing.

Just topped up at 13/2 NRNB in case the fav comes out. Recital is the danger for me. I think he is the most naturally gifted but his flaws are stopping me backing him at the moment...

Needs to overcome the poor draw Stats.

FFS

as penny says, would like to see him up there ready to carry on with any slackening of the pace.

Should have done this one each way

6/1 third the odds with 365 seems fair.

unclepuncle
When: 29 May 11 18:41
I have a funny feeling Treasure Beach will do best of the O'Brien qaurtet

very poor. He wouldn't have won, but I am baffled by tactics. Game over after about 2f. I know it wasn't easiest from his draw, but he had no chance being held up 2nd last.

Having backed Seville to come 2nd or 3rd I have to hold my hands up and say he was a mugs bet. Take out charlton house from the dante and the form is rubbish, the time was poor the sectional was poor the beaten
horses were poor. His 2 y/o form doesn't look good either.
A big misjudgement of a horses ability.

Pisco Sour managed to turn the form around from the Dante

I suspect he can win races this season back in Ireland, though, and probably a bit early to rule out the St Leger even though his form is shoite so far.

I will only give up on him if he is toilet in the Irish Derby

Huge form boost there. Perhaps Seville just hated Epsom ?

They said he didn't act on the track, I don't like that excuse though, and I didn't think he lost his action particularly. He was just given a baffling ride being held up. He was alongside Recital and Pour Moi turning in, and their main asset is a turn of foot, something Seville doesnt have. If he lines up at the Curragh I think he will be hard to beat.

Couldnt agree more AD. Baffling ride at Epsom - the horse is much better than that and hopefully will prove it in Irish Derby.

I am pretty sure I read on sporting life the other day that Aidan will saddle Recital, Memphis Tennesse and Treasure Beach in the Irish Derby. There was no mention of Sevvy.

Yes I heard similar. Be a shame if he misses it as I thought the Irish Derby would be ideal for him.

Well, apparenty he will now run according to Anne-Marie on Twitter. Goods news.

The race could take on a new complexion if there is cut in the ground.

Make or break for me on Sunday. Surely will be ideal conditions and will be run to suit, so if he flops I'm afraid I will have to turn my back on him

Wonder what jockey arrangements will be...

Heff on board!

Have you backed him Dan ?

Yeah backed him earlier in the week. Also just had a few quid at 160 for the KG haha. Would be likely target if winning on Sunday surely? Talk about eggs in one basket...

Yes Aidan will most likely send his best 3yo to Ascot which will probably be who runs best this weekend.

Hopefully that's Seville then. Are you involved at all?

His dante run looks better with Pisco sour winning. He could run second to CH again. It's not impossible
he could use Seville as one of the pacemakers for treasure beach, it would be a shameful waste if AOB did it
but he's done it before.  Jan vermeer who was  fav for last years derby and came 4th is now used as a pacemaker.

I don't know about being used as a pacemaker, but he should definitely be given a positive ride. Cape Blanco Irish Champion style

st nicholas abbey or await the dawn going for king george.None of these will,even if they do manage to scrape a win here

No bet for me Dan. I have him in my TTF list so hope he wins and the booking of Heffernan is the one you would have hoped for.

SNA will go, I don't think ATD will, but surely AOB will send his best 3yo too.

Yes sint, pleased with the booking. I still think he has the most latent talent out of the Ballydoyle lot, hopefully he will prove me right...

Unlucky, Dan. Sevvy had everychance to win but just got beaten by the better horse. He may win at the top level with Soft conditions, or perhaps when upped in trip, but reckon he may need to drop in Grade to get his head in front if he is going to remain over 12f on Good ground.

I think he may just be a bit of a dog tbh. No excuses today as he got the conditions (altho softer may have helped) and ride I hoped for, but when he got to the front he seemingly stopped. I can't have it that TB outstayed him, so I think he was just outbattled. I was quite taken by the way he kicked and took a length out of the field about 2f out, but he did seem to think he had done enough on the run in. I think it would need a canny ride to get him in front, as I think he'd need to be prominent but delivered with his winning run quite late. Either that or slap some blinkers on him

I still maintain my point of view, pre-derby, that Seville is a follower , he looked like he didn't like being
in front on Sunday and added yet another second to his name. I thought that he'd do this in the Eng derby
and having lost money on him coming  2nd or 3rd there I gave up on the horse being a placer one race too soon.

Well, wasn't expecting to get a run for my KG bet...

arc winner 2012 - nap

Yeah I've also chucked a tenner on for the arc at triple figures haha.

dan he wont run in the KG

Yeah just heard that, shame really.

--

Don't know whether to have a saver on Sevvy. Not got him in my book at the mo, and it would destroy me if he won unbacked...

pay back time for Seville fans.
10/1 is huge for the Leger today, best horse in the race on time figures when 2nd to possible Arc winner Meandre at Longchamp in July, no way should this horse be only 5th in the market.
Easy to forgive the Voltigeur run on dodgy ground, travelled very well, but had very hard race at Longchamp time before and paid the price.
Decent course form when running on 2nd in Racing Post Trophy, German bred, stamina to burn, no problem with trip today.
Had a nice break since York and Seville easily as good as any of O'Brien's previous Leger winners (Milan, Brian Boru and Scorpion).
Possibly young Joseph's last chance to win a classic.