Horse Antepost
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2011.
Only threads seem to be about Frankel, and Dubai Prince who will now miss the race.
Only threads seem to be about Frankel, and Dubai Prince who will now miss the race.
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John Gosden has confirmed Nathaniel for Chester next up.
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John Gosden is targeting the MBNA Chester Vase on May 5 for Nathaniel after his victory at Haydock on Saturday.
The Galileo colt had finished a half-length second to Frankel on his debut and was then beaten a short head by Picture Editor on his two starts last year. Stepped up to mile and a half in a three-runner maiden on Merseyside, Gosden's Derby entry was not hard pressed in opening his account at the third time of asking. "They went a good, solid gallop for a three-horse race and he's done everything fine," Gosden told Racing UK. "He ran into Frankel first time last year and then and got chinned by Picture Editor, so we decided to come here for a maiden and it will have done him good. "The Chester Vase would be a likely target for him. He's comfortable at a mile and a half." |
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I like this horse Sint. Backed him last year but think he is still 40's.
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Chinned by Picture Editor who has since been demoted to Frankel's pacemaker.
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True Ramruna but that was over a very inadequate mile and, as his trainer states above, he is comfortable over a mile and a half. Johnny G put him away after that defeat to Picture Editor saying he wanted to save him for this year rather than win an easy back end maiden.
He may well not be good enough but beautifully bred and at 40-1 why not a few quid for fun? |
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He's worth a tenner Win only at 40/1, as he has shown his well being this season and has some good form in the book, but next time you'd hope he makes a good impression at Chester.
Does anyone know any details on Gosdens modus operandi re his Derby runners ? Debussy he sent to Sandwon and then to Chester in 2009 before Epsom. Interestingly, Gosden was at Haydock on Saturday to see Nathaniel when he could have been at Newbury to see the well touted Colombian. |
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Nathaniel struck me as a one paced galloper last year and I seriously doubt he will be good enough even in an average year, but that is just my opinion. Did Gosden not usually favour the Sandown Classic Trial for his derby contenders?
I backed another of Goden's (Thimaar) for the Derby at decent prices during the winter after being impressed by his only run at two. The time of his race in the first division of the maiden at Newbury was comparative to Carlton House in teh second division of the maiden and as the lattare was backed into 26's I took the view that 140+ on here for Thimaar, who had a decent middle distance pedigree (family of Salsabil) was good value and he would only have to win his maiden for me to be able to trade out at a third of that price. I was surprised to see Gosden introduce him in the conditions race last week when he could have went for a maiden which surely does suggest he is well thought of. He is also the only maiden he has entered for the Dante (he has three entries). I thought there was a lot of promise in his run last week and although he was outsprinted by the winner who received a good tactical ride, he still looked green and would also appreciate a couple fo furlongs further. I doubt he will be good enough to win the Derby but will be interested to see where they go with him next time, I do think he is a bit more promising than Nathaniel myself. |
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Im not sure Nathaniel is good enough either which is why you'd be hoping for something special at Chester. But it does appear he will be aimed for the race.
I thought Thimaar was given a shocking ride by Richard Hills. |
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Or maybe he is a St Leger type ? Gosden done very well in that race last few seasons, Lucarno, Artic Cosmos etc.
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It wasn't a great ride in hindsight although sometimes you learn more in defeat than in victory.
Travelled like the best horse in the race but didn't quicken instantly when challenged, so hopefully they won't ride him for a turn of pace in future but send him on in plenty of time. I can see him needing at least 1m 4f and staying further. I seem to be accumulating a list of Leger types already; Thimaar, Solar Sky and Midsummer Sun |
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Where is the Ballydoyle challenge likely to come from? We know about Roderic O'Connor but Recital disapppointed last week and even though I'm a Seville fan, I'm concerned that he dosen't give his all in a finish. Have they any other outside contenders and should we be concentrating on this three?
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marksmanship ?
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Recital is still their No.1 imo althoough lots of people fancy Seville.
Recital didn't look great the other day, and the run left more questions than answers, but Ryan Moore is not that experienced around Leopardstown and he probably ''got the fractions'' wrong. He was nowhere near fit either. One dodgy run from 3 starts doesn't mean he's a nop hope and his next race is reportedly the Derrinstown so he would need to win that. |
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id prefer markmanship at 40 than recital at 15.
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The form has certainly worked out well, with Notable Graduate and Zanughan being easy winners since. On Debut Joseph Obrien claimed 3lb from Marksmanship and he was backed from an opening show of 7/1 into 7/2 and he won very well.
It was a similar story with Empowering when Joseph was riding, 12/1 into 11/2. |
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It was just a maiden however and he needs to improve significantly to match his stablemates let alone anything else.imo
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Marksmanship i would think could go for the Lingfield Derby Trial. Nice galloping course and Seville to the Dante.
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The Dante should hopefully go some way to establishing the Derby pecking order. I imagine Frankel, World Domination, Casamento, Seville and Carlton House would be possible runners.
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The Gallinule Stakes could be another possible for Markmanship Ruby. Jan Vermeer won it under a group 1 penalty last year en route to Epsom.
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Marksmanship ran a decent race in his maiden (about the same sort of form as World Domination did in his maiden. he looks a nice sort and looks sure tio imporve. He should certainly get 12 furlongs as well.
Backing him for the Derby is sheer guesswork though. He has around 40lbs of improvement to make to win a decent Derby. Not impossible of course. I am struggling so far to see decent Derby types. World Domination is hugely under priced for a 91 rated maiden winner. I don't much like Seville or Recital to be honest. Seville looks a bit too slow and may be more of a leger type. Recital is less stoutly bred and could be quicker but it was very hard to like his effort last time with his head in the air and sideways and no real speed or class evident. Roderic looks a bit of a doubtful stayer to me on breeding - too many relatives who might have got 12 furlongs seemed not to. Casamento is at least a group one winner, but again his relatives didn't get 12 furlongs and he may not either; at least there is a serious doubt. Unless you start looking at the 33/1 others, and promising maidens then this leaves 2 apparent options. Frankel (sorry to mention his name on this thread) and Carlton House. Regards Frankel he is sure to improve and will probably win the Guineas. As I believe he is bred to stay, he looks a worthy Derby favourite to me and has a very obvious chance. Given all the doubts about him running I am not sure there is a lot of value at current odds. Having said that if he wins the guineas and is annouced a definite for Epsom he will be around an evens shot, maybe shorter. Carlton House is interesting. Quite aside from it being a godforsaken royal wedding (or royal pre divorce ritual) year and the brute is owned by the Queen. He has run twice. After a promising debut he simply shafted a half decent field of maidens on ground just on the soft side by 9, 2 and 7 lengths with the second, Yaseer, since finishing a very decent 3rd in the Craven recording a post mark of 105. Carlton house's form is very much better than that of Marksmanship or of World Domination; and he is bred to stay the trip very well too. He looks like Michael Stoute's Derby horse; he's in the Dante and English and Irish Derby's. Only doubt about Carlton house for me is whether he is good enough (probably not if Frankel turns up!), and also his sire, Street Cry. Street cry is a brilliant European bred stallion (Machiavellian and Troy in his pedigree) but he hasn't yet had a single decent European 3yo. He did sire Zenyatta though! So there you are, Carlton House for those who want to oppose Frankel or have a saver. |
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Nice write up CoT. Shame to say Dubai Prince ruled out I thought he was a genuine contender.
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Frankel may well win the Derby, he looks a superstar in the making and crying out for a step up in trip imo, but it is amazingly premature to just write off the other horses.
Most of them have not been seen yet and we have no idea how they have developed over the winter. |
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What's your view on the Dante Sint?
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Bit early tbh Alileo. Not even thought about it, other than i'd be very surprised indeed if Frankel showed up there after the Guineas!
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Carlton House is defiitely an interesting one but as COT says his breeding is a concern. At the prices I've thrown a few quid at Yaseer at 120 - bred to be much better over 10f+, and has shown he has trained on and is in good health.
Hope he gives the Guineas a swerve and goes for the Dante. |
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Slumber an impressive winner of the trial at Epsom today. Another one for Frankel's owner!
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ON just his second outing Slumber produced an eyecatching turn of foot to run out a wide-margin winner of Epsom's Investec Derby Trial.
The vastly more experienced Borug from the Godolphin yard finished three and a half lengths behind the winner in second. The only runner in the five-strong field with a Derby entry, the 15-8 favouriteMusawama, finished a disappointing fourth. The 7-1 winner is owned by Khalid Abdullah, who already has the top two in the Derby market in the shape of Frankel and World Domination. He is therefore unlikely to be supplemented for the Epsom Classic. Charlie Hills, assistant to winning trainer Barry Hills, said: "He's not in the Derby, this was only his second race and he's still a baby. He's certainly a horse for the future." The Chester Vase is likely to be next on the agenda, with Hills adding: "He travelled well and went by them as though they were standing. We'd like to run him in the Chester Vase - but if that's too quick we could go to York." Musawama set a steady pace over a lush green surface and under glorious blue skies. He was soon joined by Planet Waves with Jamie Spencer, bidding for a treble after taking the opening two races, sat just behind on Weapon Of Choice. Borug and Slumber travelled in the rear. Just five lengths covered the field until the halfway mark, when at the top of the hill Spencer started to get busy on the second favourite. Still Musawama, now joined by Borug, held sway. But Slumber was looming ominously with two and a half fulongs to race and when Michael Hills asked for his effort there was an instant response. By the two furlong pole the pair were clear and the remainder of the strung-out field were left chasing their shadow. The winning jockey said: "The most impressive thing was the way he quickened and put the race to bed and then of course he stayed on well." |
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Khalid Abdulla's got himself a Derby horse I reckon [;)]
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Maybe this one can be Frankels pace maker at Epsom[;)]
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eric and mayweather have slumber, anti post at odds of 100-1, just as cover.
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Any Frenchie contenders for Epsom? Theyve often won the Guineas and with the French Derby being 10f then maybe something to come over that needs 12f?
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Yes I am looking for something else. Slumber looked nice but I am pretty sure the form is not great; still he stays acts on the ground and has a turn of foot.
I cannot believe people ahve got World Domination cut into 13/2 for the Derby, a truly amazing mug price. He is a 91 rated winner of a maiden from 70+ rated trees and has 40 lbs of improvement to make between now and the start of June (its nearly May by the way!). Regards French entries, who kinows. Maybe one other Irishman perhaps from Oxe will become a cony=tender. I personally feel pretty sure that the Derby market is going to get a huge sake up soon. There to many slow coaches, unproven hypw horses or noin stayers in the leading part of the betting for this to be a market that will last for long. |
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I will win on the race essexguy. I am the best antepost punter on here by far I dont have to resort to laying Ballydoyle non runners to make money like you, any mug could do that.
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Next
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Any news from Stoute on Carlton House....all the hype about Cecil and the Godolphin/Ballydoyle but nothing from Stoute.
Especially if Moore rides Recital in the Derrinstown...would have thought if he can ride him AOB would get a COD to ride him if he rides him in the big race itself |
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I will win on the race essexguy. I am the best antepost punter on here by far
Nothing like a bit of modesty |
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I am the best.
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COT - I totally agree that World Domination is a short enough price for the Derby after one run but, with respect, I can't quite follow your logic re Carlton House. Surely CH has done only what WD has done - ie win a maiden impressively. Ok so Yaseer has come out and done well but there is a good chance that he has improved considerably since that first run. But that's Yaseer not CH.
Maiden winners, even very good ones, are rarely given ratings higher than 90 odd - mainly for the very good reason that they have only beaten fellow maidens - but I am sure that time will prove that WD's win was against decent opposition and not mid 80's handicappers. I am sure both CH and WD will leave those last marks well behind them when they next run but my point is that if WD has to improve 40 pounds from his last run (which I would dispute) then so does CH. |
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Just in case I didnt make that clear.
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