Brilliant thread Jonibake, pls do keep it going for the season.

FWIW I think Harris Tweed is a good thing this afternoon. Looks the type to improve with age, been gelded since we saw him last and SNAs involvement makes Haggis one a steal at odds against!

Wow! SNA - That was mighty impressive.

Two things I forgot to mention.

1. There IS one horse I will be watching today. Light Blow runs in the 7.15 at Warwick. She is the FULL SISTER to Light Shift. Cecil runs two and TQ rides the other one so can't imagine they think too much of her but she comes from an incredibly consistent family as her dam, Lingerie, was also responsible for Shiva and Limnos.

2. Is it just me or is the spate of festivals at the end of the National Hunt season a bit crazy? Cheltenham is followed by Aintree is followed by Punchestown and trainers can't possibly run horses in all three. There has been some great racing this week but I have not been tempted for a single second to watch any of it. Its May!!! Flat season!

Would it not make more sense to spread them out over the season? What would be the problem with having AIntree in November/December (which would virtually ensure the National is run on safer ground), Punchestown in Jan/Feb and Cheltenham in March/April? This year so many horses were saved for Cheltenham and so the season never really got going until the festival. I know this will never happen but for me it's a no-brainer.

Sorry - wanted to get that one of my chest.

For sentimental reasons I will be willing on Overdose today. I  lived in Budapest for 5 years and I know that the whole nation will be glued to their TV's today hoping for the best. From my time living there I can tell you one thing - if the Hungarians know about anything it is horses. He clearly has loads to prove but today will tell us whether he is all hype or substance. His Prix De L'Abbaye "win" was spectacular - lets hope he is still the same horse.

Elsewhere my mate Cecil has several fancied runners today. Baisse should win as as she is a progressive, well handicapped filly. Plato may struggle on this ground. Chachamidee runs in what looks a muddling race which any of them could win. Principal Role is interesting - she was kept in training for some reason whilst Aviate was sold. She works with Midday, Vita Nova and Timpiece and I have a feeling we havent seen the best of her yet. It looks a tough race and she may need the run but I will be watching with a view to later on in the season.

His best horse on view today is Jet Away who will start odds on but should win. This is his trial for the Hardwicke and they always said he would make up into a very nice 4 year old.

The other one I will be backing each way today is Nordic Spruce. The form of his seasonal debut is good with Joviality winning an Oaks trial and I think this one needed the race. Cecil's strike rate is 34.78% with horses that have had a run and I think this one is better than his rating of 86. Again, the race looks competitive enough but he should be there or thereabouts.

Over in Ireland they must be so disappointed at the quality of fields for the 3 Group 1's. It really is becoming less and less competitive over there and that must be a concern. I have always thought that this would be the main early season target for Roderic O Connor and I think you will see a completely different horse today to the one we saw at Newmarket. My worry is the firm ground which I can only see really suiting Dubawi Gold. It will be interesting to see how the form of the English Guineas works out and whether DG was indeed flattered by running on from off the pace. I will back ROC each way as I expect him to drift in the face of suppport for Dunboyne Express who I really don't fancy at all.

So the big weekend nears and, as I am away for the rest of the week, I thought I would put my thoughts down now for what they are worth.

3 great races which I can’t wait to see although one of them has cut up very badly. I was very critical of the Irish Group 1’s last weekend but I am afraid the Coronation Cup doesn’t look much better. They do get small fields every year but this year looks like being only 5 runners which is disappointing. Perhaps it is the proximity to Royal Ascot or the fact that the top trainers might not have Epsom at the top of their lists as tracks suitable for their best horses but either way it is a shame.

I think it is still an intriguing race and one which features one of my all time favourite Henry Cecil fillies Midday. What an amazingly consistent mare she is. She always seems to run her race and, despite being beaten on her 2 visits to the track, she handles Epsom very well indeed. I said on another thread, we KNOW that she will run to a mark in the mid 120’s – it is just whether we think any of the colts can run higher than that.

For me the race revolves around St Nicholas Abbey. If he is as good as he has promised to be on occasion, he should win but there are plenty of imponderables about him. His Chester win was breathtaking and I know he didn’t beat much but it was the manner in which he did it that was so easy on the eye. The very fact that they persevered with him should tell us a lot but how good is he? I doubt I will have a bet as both are short enough but my heart will be hoping that Henry’s mare shows us all that she can take on and beat the colts.

The Oaks follows and I am on Wonder of Wonders. Again, she beat very little at Chester but it was the way she did it for me. Her progressive profile reminds me of Peeping Fawn who came so close to winning the race a few years ago and I think this beautifully bred filly will go one better. She clearly has to beat Blue Bunting who was much more fancied for this than the 1,000 Guineas by connections, but I have a feeling that she may have been slightly flattered by running up the stands rail out of the wind and away from the main action. Still, Frankie likes her and she must have a great chance. Havant is in my TTTF and I thought she ran a great Oaks trial at Newmarket. I can see her running well.

And then the big one follows on Saturday. We have had the usual rubbish about what a poor renewal it is this year and it would certainly have been nice to have Frankel in the line up, but I still think it is a race that will throw up some high class colts.

I have 3 ante-post bets still in the running – Seville and Nathaniel (both from last year) and Native Khan (after the Guineas). I am quite happy to leave it at that but, if there was no betting, I would think that Carlton House is the most likely winner providing that this little scare is only that.

As much as I take on board what TAPK and others have said about why Seville could reverse the Dante form with CH, I just can’t see it. Sure the race was not run to suit him but I don’t really think it was run to suit anything. Sure Seville will improve tons for the run as all of AOB’s are but so will CH. Tactics will be very different and I expect Soumillion will be very handy and will try and kick on at the top of the straight in a bid to outstay the favourite. I hope he does but I have my doubts.

I do much prefer the claims of Seville to Recital though. Epsom is not the place and The Derby is not the race for a horse with quirks like that and, like COT, I will be most disappointed if a horse like Recital is good enough.

I still like Native Khan and expect him to run well if he stays. The Guineas form is so far looking rock solid and this horse was the only horse to go with Frankel (in the loosest sense of the word) and not disintegrate in the last 2 furlongs. He surely has the pace to travel well into the race, it is just about whether he will have the turn of foot and stamina to finish it off.

I don’t know enough about Pour Moi but was impressed with his last win. The problem with this one though is the appalling record that French horses and Andre Fabre horses have in this race.

I don’t think Nathaniel is a certain runner unless we get an unlikely deluge but I have a feeling we will see this one come into his own a bit later and over longer distances. Perhaps even the Leger.

So to sum up, the three for me are Carlton House, Native Khan and Seville. It will be great for the Queen if CH can do it – it will be great for my wallet if either of the other two can!

Any NAPS for Royal Ascot ,jb ?

I think SETA is the winner of the Windsor Forrest. No prices yet but suspect she will be close to favouritism behind Sajjhaa of Godolphins. SETA was always going to be a better 4yo.

I like one for the handicaps but again no prices yet.

JB

Great write up as usual - hope you have a great day on Tuesday.

Not sure I can agree about the POW however - just had a look at initial entries and it actually looks quite a weak race. All the best horses are unlikely to show up, especially ther other Coolmore ones as they will want So You Think to win for obvious reasons. Godolphin don't have anything and that leaves Planteur and Twice Over. Personally I would say that SYT has more class than the other two with Planteur being the main threat if it turns up

And agree with your thoughts about Shumoos on that thread. Hope she turns up for QM - no need to be scared of what Wesley Ward sends as she put up such an eye catching performance and the form is already stacking up

Thanks for all the positive feedback guys - much appreciated.

I am most probably missing something with regard So You Think. I know there is a huge consensus of well informed people who think he is the real deal and he has certainly done nothing wrong either in Australia or since he came here. I just think that people may have gone a bit overboard after that defeat of Campanologist who, lets face it, is only a Group 1 winner because he was found a couple of soft races in Germany and is more likely Group 2/3 standard. Saying that, SYT couldnt have been too much more impressive.

It wouldnt surprise you to learn I am a huge fan of Twice Over. You can ignore his last two runs and I think he will be the perfect benchmark with which to judge SYT. Add Planteur and Rewilding into the mix and you have a decent field I think.

Just read some disappointing news that Rite of Passage is not a definite runner next week as they have had some problems with him. A shame as he did stand a great chance.

The other one I thought of last night and has surely been laid out for this meeting is Modun of Sir Michael Stoute's. I saw him at Newbury and he looked like a group horse but is currently rated only 99. I would imagine the King George V handicap will be his race.

I could not be happier! Henry Cecil has been a very special part of my racing life. He trained his first winner the year I was born.

I followed him during the glory years of the 70's, 80's and 90's.

I was there when Bosra Sham won that incredible Champion Stakes the year he lost the retainer with Sheik Mohammed. Still my best ever days's racing.

I despaired when he lost everything at the beginning of the 2,000's and trained just 12 winners.

I rejoiced when Passage of Time won a listed event at the end of 2006 and the recovery began and I wept with everyone the following year at Epsom when Light Shift won the Oaks.

I was there when Frankel won the Dewhurst and Greenham and watched gobsmacked in a betting shop on holiday when he produced the greatest 2,000 Guineas performance of all time.

I will be there on Tuesday for what I hope will be another crowning moment for this legend of a man.

Through all that time, through good times and bad, he has remained my sporting hero and nobody in sport has ever been more deserving of this honour.

Thank you your majesty and thank you....... Sir Henry!!!

Wow Graeme - appreciate your comments and sorry that you take such a pessimistic view of our sport. Maybe I'm too much of an optomist but racing means so much more to me than gambling or bookmakers.

When I go racing I get a buzz that no other sport can give me. I love the sights, the smells, the excitement of the off and the shouts, screams, roars and urges as a race reaches its climax.

I have two very young children and I can't wait to introduce them to this world. I have never found it sinister, I have never been at the mercy of a bookmaker and I would always preach against the dangers of gambling.

I am not to naive to know that there is a darker side but isnt there in any sport? Last week's wranglings at FIFA, bloodgate in Rugby, doping in cycling, athletics - what sport is truly squeaky clean?

So here we go then. This is what it’s all about isn’t it?! The flat’s equivalent to the Cheltenham festival and I will be going for the first time tomorrow!

To be honest I prefer going racing when I can move around a bit and see plenty of the action so I’ve always preferred to watch the big day’s on TV – but tomorrow is something else. The Return of The Frank!! How many more times will we get the chance to see this magnificent beast run? You HAVE to be there don’t you!

So the St James actually looks a cracking race. After Frankel blitzed them all at Newmarket I thought that most would run scare of him here but I think this is easily a better field than the 2,000. Here is how I see the main challengers shaping up:

Zoffany – (Group 1 winner) I thought he was over-raced last year and wasn’t convinced with his return when 3rd in a listed race. Like most of AOB’s will have certainly improved masses for that run but even his best form leaves him with plenty to find.

Grand Prix Boss – (Grade 1 winner) an intriguing runner and I doubt they would have sent him all the way over just for a bit of fun so has to be taken seriously. Has only ever run on firm so the rain might not be to his liking, but held in high regard and could run well.

Wootton Bassett – (Group 1 winner) I loved this horse last year as he just got better and better and is a real scrapper. Was disappointing in the French Guineas but there were excuses for him there. I am just not sure he is a miler and I think you will see him weaken in the final furlong.

Dream Ahead – (Group 1 winner) comes here fresh but it will be some training performance to win this first time out. The rain will obviously have helped but could probably have done with even more. Stamina doubts but, if he can reproduce that Middle Park form, will be a threat to all.

Dubawi Gold – (2x classic runner up) underrated by most (apart from his trainer) and sure to run a good race if still fresh enough after 4 runs already this year. Likely to be a lot closer to Frankel when they near the business end and will probably be ridden much more handily as I am sure Hughsie won’t want a repeat of the Irish ****-up. I see him finishing 3rd.

Excelebration – (classic winner) nailed on in a market without Frankel for me. In fact that could be my only bet on what looks a tricky first day. He proved that his run behind Frankel in the Greenham was no fluke with a dominant win in the German Guineas. I can’t see him turning around the form with the fav but see him as the one to chase him home.

Frankel – how will he be ridden? I am expecting something similar to the Royal Lodge. Tucked in behind Rerouted until the approach to the bend and then unleashed. I don’t think they will want to lead (otherwise why enter Rerouted again?) and I wouldn’t have thought they would want to hold on to him too long. He has a stride and a gallop that can be sustained over several furlongs so why not play to those strengths?

I see Ladbrokes have lengthened him to 2/5 which is almost tempting as I just cannot see this horse getting beaten.  Obviously I am nervous already but, if he settles, I expect him to win well.

Elsewhere on the day The Queen Anne is going to be an absolute belter. A race to savour for me but, if I had to choose, the recent rain would lean me towards Goldikova. Richard Hannon said yesterday that he wouldn’t want it too soft for Canford Cliffs, well I think it will be ok but I do think he would have preferred it a bit quicker.

I have no idea about the sprints but will be hoping my Hungarian friend can bounce back on more favourable going.  I will just enjoy the rest of the day and make up my mind on the 2 year old races when I see them in the paddock.

Day 2 looks like having more betting opportunities.

I am a fan of Fury and expect him to go well in the Jersey Stakes and make Oracle the main danger as long as that close up 3rd in the Irish 2,000 didn’t flatter him.

The rain has me favouring Sajhaa over Seta in the Windsor Forest but I am interested in the booking of Johnny Murtagh for Jaqueline Quest who would give them all something to think about if back to her best. At 25-1 I might just have a little ew interest.

The Prince of Wales........well I have already said my piece about So You Think. He might be the real deal but, for me, 4-9 is way too short for a horse that hasn’t beaten anything in Europe yet. Saying that I think the race will be run to suit him. I expect Debussy to set a good pace for Rewilding which should also suit Planteur as they are both better over further imo. I am very sentimental as I am sure you have guessed but even so Ladbrokes 12-1 about Twice Over was far too tempting about a triple Group 1 winner and he definitely has his trip and ground. Perhaps SYT will be in a different league and, if he is, good luck to him, but I will be cheering on Sir Henry’s favourite horse.

Handicaps are not really my thing but I have heard great things about Green Destiny in the Royal Hunt Cup whose handicap mark has been preserved for this.

Shumoos is the most exciting 2 year old I have seen this year and must take all the beating in the Queen Mary and in the finale I like Humdrum of Richard Hannon’s.

A great 5 days in store and I hope to earn some spending money by backing Timepiece tonight!

Dont like the rainfall either Jb. JQ will though. Why isn't Queally riding ?

Hope the weather is good for it Joni. It's the best flat racing festival there is. Fingers crossed frankel runs. In the w/o frankel market i'd probably go with Wootten Bassett. I don't have many strong opinions as i haven't looked at the cards properly. I think CC will win the Queen Anne, and So You Think won't have many problems in his race. I'll look out for Fullbright and Trumper Major in the Coventry, but it's no bet. I have an AP bet on F&G for the Gold Cup, but i don't think he will win. I won't be dissapointed if i watch a good few races without having a bet.

What a day. First things first - if you have never been to Royal Ascot put it on your list of things to do before you die. It was an amazing experience and a unique atmosphere and the viewing facilities were way better than I thought they would be.

The racing was spectacular - flat racing at its best - but left probably more questions than answers.

I got it wrong in the first but wasnt it a great race with both superstars performing brilliantly. I thought Richard Hughes rode a beautiful race on Canford Cliffs but I also thought the best horse won even allowing for the overweight Peslier was forced to put up. Goldikova lost nothing in defeat and it was a wonderful race to watch.

So what about Frankel? Well at the time I, along with many around me, was more relieved than anything. As they passed me half a furlong out I was sure that Zoffany was going to overhaul him and my instant reaction was that TQ went far too early.

Having watched it back a couple of times and listened to the interviews that is still my view and I DO think on balance it was a poor ride but hindsight is a wonderful thing and I do think some of the reaction to TQ has been over the top. What we must remember is that Frankel galloped pretty much full out for 8 furlongs at Newmarket. When Rerouted went 10 lengths clear TQ was trapped in a bit of a pocket and Tom went probably a furlong and a half earlier than planned. However he probably thought that if Frankel could gallop for 8 furlongs at Newmarket he could manage 5 at Ascot and I was surprised that he tired as much as he did inside that final furlong.

Now if you listen to connections they will say that it wasnt tiredness but idleness with the horse thinking that he done enough. Far be it for me to question Sir Henry but I have to say it didnt look that way to me.

I am sure that if they ran the race again they would hold on to him until the point I suggested yesterday, about 3 and a half out, and if they had I think he would have won more impressively. As it was they got away with what turned out to be poor tactics and I am sure words were had after the race.

I doubt he will ever be ridden like that again, especially if he is stepped up in trip as I believe he will be.

As for the others I was very surprised at how well Zoffany ran and hold up my hands - I got that wrong. Perhaps he was slightly flattered by being the most patiently ridden but it was a grand effort anyway and it is amazing how much AOB horses are improving from 1st to 2nd run. Excelebration ran a stormer but the biggest surprise was Neebras who even surprised Frankie! His run gave a great boost to my nap for tomorrow Fury and to the Stoute horse who runs on Thursday.

All in all I am just happy that Frankel remains unbeaten and I suppose the biggest positive to take from the race was how well he settled in the early stages. I still think he is one of the best horses I have ever seen and I still think, if ridden well, he will be very very tough to beat. I expect him to be given a break now and agree with COT that his next run will be the Juddmonte in August. Cant wait!

JB,

IMO your assessment is absolutely spot on. Cannot believe hasn't sat on the horse on gallops and it looked liked he panicked a bit yesterday. Doesn't seem to be riding with much confidence. Might be completely wrong but the figure of Mr Murtagh looms large and if there is another ill judged ride this week, Prince Abdullah may have a word to say. The booking today on Jacqueline Quest is significant though not necessarily on the horse's chance

I know - real shame that. Oracle is my alternative. Roo I was thinking the same thing - JM could be a significant booking. Ian Mongan was originally down to ride the horse. Having said that the owner, Mr Martin, might have got involved.

Another big meeting ruined by a massive draw bias

JB

Fair play re SYT. Think they ran a poor tactical race but if was good enough still should have beaten Rewilding over 10F

Cannot believe the odds available on PE, AJ, SG and MS tomorrow and am backing all e/w. Personally Duncan fir the Gold Cup and actually think the Slumber that won at Epsom will take all the beating