This is when it really starts!!!!

Well given that my first bet of the flat season was on Taqleed @ 14/1 for the Lincoln I guess things can only get better because at least when my horse is drawn on the wrong side or is desperately unlucky afetr meeting trouble in running I will at least have had a run for my money

A fascinating day and a great one for Fahey and Hanagan. Nothing to worry any of the principals in the two Guineas I thought but some interesting clues nonetheless.

It is very early days but the signs are good for those hoping that Al Zarooni would start the season better than Bin Suroor normally does. Ocean War looked plenty fit enough and won well. Neebras pulled like a train down to the start, missed the break and was never competitive. I would ignore that form.

Elzaam was deeply disappointing in the Free Handicap and did little to advertise the form of Strong Suit but at least the impressive winner is trained by Hannon so clearly his horses are in good heart.

My only bet of the day was Sing Softly and I was counting my money at the furlong mark only to be denied at the death by that blasted Hanagan. I felt that Sing Softly came to win her race but didn’t help her cause by hanging on ground that probably turned out to be fast enough for her. Good performance by the winner but surely no Guineas winner in that field.

As I said yesterday, I didn’t think Specific Gravity would win the Fielden but I thought he ran a very promising race making up ground coming down the hill before finding the ground too fast and not letting himself down. He will win races this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sent to France for easier ground. The winner looks a typically gutsy Mark Johnston horse but I would think some way short of top class. Let’s just hope they let Johnston keep him though.

So Midsummer Sun looked like he ran a very disappointing race but he was far too green to do himself justice and lost his action racing in to the dip. Queally nursed him home and he was running on again in the last 100 yards. Obviously he won’t be winning the Derby but, as they said on Racing UK, Midday only finished 7th first time out so too early to write him off.

Tomorrow see’s the feature event of the two days as Native Khan attempts to justify his trainer’s high opinion of him in the Craven. I think he is rock solid but will probably go off short enough.  I spoke to Eddie Ahern last month and they REALLY like this horse and feel he has improved a lot over the winter. He will love the ground tomorrow, his trainer is in great form and he has Fallon aboard. What’s not to like? Whilst it is not a great field, tomorrow should tell if he is likely to be involved in the business end of the Guineas.

The Earl of Sefton looks a very good race this year with the return of Elusive Pimpernel, Luca Cumani’s progressive Forte Dei Marmi and Frankel’s galloping companion Bullet Train. Frankel has been beating this one by about 20 lengths on the gallops so will be interesting to see how he goes. The one I like in this race though is Polytechnicien. Andre Fabre does not send horses over just for fun and he has already run and won twice this year. My only worry would be the ground as he has only won on soft.

The other race I am looking forward to is the Wood Ditton which often throws up a nice horse. Henry runs Aviate’s full brother, Air Traffic, who is supposedly massive but very useful. Again my worry for such a big horse would be the ground and the likely tender handling by the jockey. Most of the top trainers are represented with Stoute saddling three.

Agree re Neebras. Easily forgive the run and he was notably weak on here all day, 7/4 in the moring, sent off 7/2.

Elzaam perhaps a sprinter. They could do worse than going back to Royal Ascot imo.

Jonibake -Excellent stuff .

Very good, well reasoned arguments. Good luck with any bets today

Again couldn't disagree with anything put up.

I actually think Cecil will have his first winner tomorrow with Arizona Jewell

Fair comment, won't be the last time I'm wrong

Well at least I cured my seconditus today. Home Office finished last!

Tomorrow is the day though isn’t it? The return of the Frank! I’ll be there! I am already nervous.

I keep reading all this tripe about how hyped Frankel is but to be honest most of the posts are from people believing he is over-hyped. Those of us that have backed him are mostly far too nervous to say anything! I can’t see how he can be over-hyped though when he has won four races out of four and done it in the style he has? Surely hyped horses are those that haven’t done anything? That aside, can he be as good as we all hope he is? Has he trained on?

There are so many things worrying me about Frankel tomorrow.

Henry’s form is not great let’s be honest. All Time was another to disappoint today. Tom Queally said we should not worry about Frankel’s fitness but Hannon’s horses seem to be running so well.

The ground is going to be quicker than anything he has raced on before. Some of us, me included, think he will be a better horse on better ground but we don’t know for sure. We KNOW Strong Suit likes it fast.

The trip – is it on the short side for a horse still being talked of as a possible Derby horse?

The opposition – Strong Suit is a seriously good horse and his trainer really rates him. As this trainer has been responsible for three of the best milers in the country over the last few years, we should surely listen to him.

I doubt I’ll sleep to be honest.

One thing reassured me today. Listening to Kieren tell Nick Luck that if Frankel brings his A game to Newbury tomorrow he will finish alone and that it would be no disgrace for Native Khan to finish second in the Guineas to one of the best horses we have seen. Newmarket people KNOW that this horse is potentially special even if there are some doubting Thomas’ still out there.

I am going to retain the faith. I believe in this horse and I think he will win. I am not sure by how far and I fear Strong Suit, but I think he will win. And if he does win tomorrow I am sure he will win the Guineas. I think the conditions of tomorrow’s race will suit his main rival better but the extra furlong at Newmarket and the improvement this race will bring about, will make him extremely difficult to beat on 30th April.

Tomorrow is not about money for me. I don’t care if his price is too short or too long for the Guineas. I just want him to win because I love horse racing and I love good horses and I want to see dear Henry have a career defining horse.

I was at Newmarket in October. It has been a long, a very long winter. I have been waiting for a horse like this for 40 years. I just hope he does it.

"Listening to Kieren tell Nick Luck that if Frankel brings his A game to Newbury tomorrow he will finish alone"



It's hardly Mystic Meg stuff. Although to keep with the theme of Mystic Meg, Fallon also stated a while back that he wasn't sure if Frankel would train on. * looks in to crystal ball* tonights lottery winner will be a man or a woman.

Roob it's just one of these races where anyone has a 50/50 chance of being right. He's either at those high levels or he isn't. If you consider that he's 1/3, then he'd have to win tomorrow before going to the guineas as strong fav. So as things stand he's 1/2 for the guineas, if you take his Greenham odds in to consideration as an accumulator. Coincidentally, we will find out shortly if Wooton Basset will be alright or not, about one second after the Greenham. Even the trainers don't know if he's going to be as impressive as anticipated. I'd be pleased if Strong Suit won, but i'm not holding my breath.

What a day! This is what it’s all about for me.  A double for Cecil and two horses with serious classic pretentions.

Let’s deal with Frankel first. Ah the relief!

The moment I saw him in the pre-parade I thought he looked enormous. He really is a bull of a horse but even I could see that he was short of full fitness and was carrying plenty of condition. Two wise old sages next to me were particularly unimpressed and spoke in loud voices about how Strong Suit looked far fitter and they would be backing him. Ha Ha! I saw Frankel last October at Newmarket and the thing that really struck me was how much bigger his head and neck were this time. He has a great big square head, which is always a good sign for me. Francombe was right in that there was a bit of sweat between the back legs but it was far from excessive and he actually looked really relaxed. He has some presence this horse. It’s almost like he knows he’s good.

If I am completely honest the race was satisfactory only. But, as I wrote yesterday, there were so many factors that were worrying me; I am just pleased he came through it.

HE WILL IMPROVE A TON FOR THIS.

I don’t think we will see this horse race over seven furlongs again and the further they went the better he looked. He will also probably never run in such a slow race again. I honestly don’t know what they were doing having Picture Editor in there. Queally even had to scream to Mongan to get a move on as he fell out of the stalls and crawled the first furlong. Leave the pacemakers to Ballydoyle Henry!

Poor thing just keeps beating the wrong horses though doesn’t he? If Strong Suit had finished second we would probably all be crowing even more and he would be 2/5 for Newmarket.   But Excelebration, like Roderic O Connor was 25-1 and unfancied. Time will tell how good this form is but at least there was another 6 lengths back to the third.

So the negatives; he pulled hard in the first two furlongs, he took a while to really assert over a horse that had average form and he looked like he wanted to hang right a bit to the rail.

The positives; he won, he handled the ground, he looked better the further he went, he “was only 80% fit” according to TQ.

Has he done enough to scare off the others? Probably not but I would prefer it if he beats a good field anyway. The dream is still alive, the bubble shows no sign of bursting yet.

World Domination was seriously impressive. You have to remember guys that the Newmarket stables and Cecil in particular are some way off where they want to be because they have not been able to work any of the horses on the grass. Cecil said himself that this one was a big baby and would need the run. In the paddock he looked the part and I thought he had less condition than Frankel.

Having decided not to have a bet, especially as I was way down on the day, I couldn’t believe it when I saw 100-30 in the ring and couldn’t resist. I also remembered Queally’s blog and did a combination forecast with the second string and the Stoute horse! The win bet was never in doubt as he absolutely cruised to the front and then lengthened away well. Solar Sky was eyecatching in second and Fiorente looked potentially smart as well.

I have read some posters on here who have said that it was a poor maiden. It wasn’t. There were some really nice sorts here and almost half the field were Derby entries. World Domination MADE them look ordinary.

I know this horse is now incredibly short for the Derby and I have completely missed the boat as I thought this horse WAS over-hyped, but I have to say I was extremely impressed and he must be firmly in the mix bearing in mind the likely improvement.

Elsewhere on the day there was more good news for Dubai Prince fans as Mahmood Al Zarooni has his horses looking fantastic and Lajooj won despite pulling all the way down to the start and still running very green. Whatever he has done differently in Dubai this winter it has worked and I would now rate Dubai Prince the main danger to Frankel in 2 weeks.

The other really impressive horse today was Modun. I LOVED him in the paddock but stupidly backed All Action. He looks a typical Stoute 4 year old improver and will win good races.

Don’t discount Rimth in the Guineas either. She is a very good looking filly and showed a good turn of foot.

So roll on 30th April. I reckon I can relax for about a week before I start getting stressed again. I wouldn’t have it any other way though!

Thanks PFT! Completely agree - Frankel will be much better with a decent pace but stable only have Monopolize as a possible pacemaker and he hasnt run yet this season.

Not sure WD will go the Dante route as it would mean a step down in trip. Lingfield possibly or Newmarket Guineas meeting?

Can't see Stoutey being too happy about that but you are right - he would make the perfect pacemaker.

You could be right about the Dante but it would be a big ask on his second run against the likes of Casamento and Seville. He used Lingfield last year for Bullet Train and a couple of years before that with Father Time. Neither as good as WD though.

Jon

See that Specific Gravity could well run over the weekend. Be very interesting to see how it goes having had a run. I like this horse and it did show some good speed in its first race. Bit of a suspicion that it won't want 'firm' in the going however

Also Arizona Jewel is declared again - was she pulled out at Newbury because of the ground? Think this may prove to be Cecil's best middle distance filly

Agreed Roo. Not sure why she was pulled out but might well have been ground. Have a feeling the fillies might be slightly further behind though.

Am I in a betting shop?

What a start it has been!

I was away with the family this weekend and found myself stuck in Cotswold Farm Park at 2pm on Saturday with my 18 month old twins having the time of their lives and me thinking "how the hell am I going to get to see the Guineas without seriously peeing off my wife?!"

In the end one of the kids started getting tearful which I interpreted as tiredness and kindly offered to drive them around the countryside for an hour so that they could have an afternoon nap and my wife could have a break. She fell for it and I jumped in the car and drove full pelt to a tiny bookies in Stow. Luckily there was a space outside the bookies so I could keep an eye on the kids (I am not THAT bad) and watch the greatest 2,000 Guineas winner in my lifetime.

Enough has been said on here already about the race so I won't add much except to say that it was an incredible thrill watching him obliterate that field. Afterwards I was one of those that thought perhaps TQ had given him an unnecessarily hard ride but, watching several times again since I got back, he only really got to work in the last furlong and just gave him a couple of cracks. When you consider that this was the first time he has really been asked a question one can hopefully assume that there is plenty left to come.

My one slight worry is that pretty much all of Henry's previous wide margin Classic winners found it difficult to come close to that form again - Slip Anchor and Lady Carla never won again after romping away with their classics. Henry is the best at priming a horse for a big race but sometimes it leaves its mark. As I say, I think Frankel has plenty left and it is hard to see any other 3 year old getting near him at Ascot.

On that subject, I know many people are disappointed that he is not heading to Epsom. I was one with an antepost voucher myself and would have loved to see him line up, but I can't help feeling that they are doing the right thing. I think he COULD win the Derby but I would think it would take a serious toll on the horse. They are in this for the long haul and there will be plenty of other opportunities to step up in trip later in the year when he is older and hopefully wiser. The wonderful thing about Henry is that he has told us all now - at the beginning of May - and not let the speculation mount as other trainers would have.

This week the circus moves on to one of my favourite meetings of the year - Chester.

There are a few horses I am looking forward to.

Wonder of Wonders runs today in the Cheshire Oaks and I expect her to win well. They think a lot of this beautifully bred filly and Aiden likes using this race.

Tomorrow I will be looking out for one of my antepost Derby horses, Nathaniel. He has a lot to still do to make up into a serious Derby prospect and tomorrow's race may not tell us too much as it has cut up rather badly (Sea Moon now not running) but I think this horse has a decent each way chance in the Derby. Johnny G has kept him under the radar so far this year winning a lowly maiden at Haydock but I feel there is much more to come. By running him here at not at York next week he is avoiding the big guns (a typical JG ploy in classic trials)and I would think is almost certain to run at Epsom. Not so sure that the tight turns of Chester will suit this galloper but should still be good enough to win.

Await The Dawn is another O'Brien horse with a big reputation who runs on Thursday in the Huxley and another one I like on that day is Nibani of Sir Michael Stoute's.

Should be a good week anyway!

Really enjoying your thread, keep it going. There are loads of bookies in Cyprus so you'll get plenty of chance to see the Dante. Enjoy yourself