Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 58 comments are related to the topic:
Moonlight Cloud
Moonlight Cloud
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 58
|
By:
POintgiven, thanks for passing on the Timeform ratings, which I hadn't seen. I'm not sure how Timeform calculate their ratings these days, but it's hard to work out how they can justify such a lofty rating based on the Imprudence performance. The winning time was slow allowing for the conditions (2.5 seconds slower than Elusive Wave's winning time two years ago on softer ground, for example) and the overall form, using some of the beaten fillies as a guide, doesn't stack up. The sectional times are interesting though. It will be fascinating to see whether Moonlight Cloud can quicken so impressively off a faster pace against the likes of White Moonstone, Memory, Hooray, Havant et al.
|
|
By:
the trouble with people like Eric Morris, James, is that once their money is on they wont hear of defeat. The thought of it gives them pulpatations. I offered Eric £500 charity challenges many times, just to see if he is a bluffer (I believe he is), but he bottles it.
So in short, dont raise to his bait, because his record is patchy to say the least. He recently backed Havant after Stoute was in the morning paper, he then backed Recital after what Jim McGrath said on the morning line, and he backed Moonlight Cloud after her Imprudence win and cried, like all good guessers, ''I wish I had taken the 20's''. The timing is not coincidental. It's blatant, to me. |
|
By:
I seem to recall that ben10 (whatever happened to him?!) and I were raving about Moonlight Cloud as long ago as last September, when the filly was (however briefly) available to back for the Guineas at 40/1. I was already firmly in the Helleborine camp by then but the potential of Moonlight Cloud was there for all to see. Eric and I will have to agree to disagree, and we'll see what happens in the Guineas. I just hope that Criquette is sufficiently impressed by Helleborine in the next week or two to let her take her chance at Newmarket.
|
|
By:
james I'm sure Moonlight Cloud has immense potential. You and others tend to place too much emphasis on ratings when they are basically an opinion. They are an opinion based on past facts which will in improving horses from 2 to 3 be overwritten after the next outing of the biggest improvers. Therefore the ratings are after-timing opinions which do not predict future improvement.
Antepost is about predicting which horses will improve the most from 2 to 3 in the Classics ... simple as. If you gave me a very good ratings figure for Moonlight Cloud as POintgiven did above which is better than anything Helleborine has achieved that is also a different after-timed opinion. Nothing sways my opinion for FUTURE improvement other than what I see with my own eyes after many years of watching Classic horses develop into Champions. Ratings experts wouldnt be ratings experts if they were any good at predicting the future otherwise they would be on a beach in Barbados instead of after-timing results. |
|
By:
They have a great chance of winning the French 1000 with Helleborine any decent she has raced has beaten her. However they will be running in the English 1000 Guineas out of her way. Bad advice to Mdm Head to suit your antepost position imo.
I spotted Moonlight Cloud last season also however I typically leave my 1000 positions later than 2000. I never fancied Helleborine who you championed early and never backed her. I have however stepped in now as 8/1 Moonlight Cloud was tremendous value for a horse with such immense potential as summarized brilliantly by POintgiven above. I have no time for sintonian he is a troublemaker on here with little antepost knowledge/ability and is blocked by me. |
|
By:
Incidentally JamesP I have asked Betfair re being allowed to block certain posters/stalkers from reading my posts. This would improve the forum massively and prevent stalkers coming onto threads to cause arguments/trouble ... no reply from them yet. That would allow myself and others to hold good discussions with excellent posters like yourself instead of having to fend off idiots all the time who hate it when I get it right so often and they dont hardly ever get it right.
|
|
By:
Eric can definitely spot those improvers - who can forget the mighty Steinbeck
 Though of course he only failed to win the triple crown because of injury and Ballydoyle politics  )Also I've scoured the Helleborine and 1,000 Guineas threads and can't find you mentioning Moonlight Cloud at al - White Moonstone and Misty For Me, and then Havant a few weeks back. Can you show us where you 'spotted' Moonlight Cloud last season or is that just more blatant aftertiming  |
|
By:
It is excellent after all these years all you can find is an injured horse who missed the Guineas and whose development was stunted most of his early career. I take that as a compliment. I pointed out St Nick wouldnt win the Guineas.
Anyway I shouldnt have to defend myself against an idiot like you. Being good at this is bad on here now Betfair have to do something to allow posters to block stalkers from reading their posts. You, sintonian and zilzal1 would be the first to go on my list. |
|
By:
You love me really Eric
 |
|
By:
There are undoubtedly a few troublemakers on here from time to time (I wouldn't know about 'stalkers'), but I certainly wouldn't place sintonian in that category. He has made a lot of sensible contributions to the forum and I respect his opinion (not just, I might add, because we happen to agree about the overstatement of the case in favour of Moonlight Cloud over the claims of Helleborine). In any case, I'm sure we're all big enough to cope with some robust debate (within the Betfair rules, of course).
I'll be reasonably happy with a Moonlight Cloud win in the Guineas, having backed her antepost last September. I have been betting on the classics for over twenty years and I place much more weight on trends (particularly juvenile form) than on ratings, which are, as you say, just one person's interpretation of past events. I have learned to pay relatively little attention to three-year-old trial race results in April, as the form can often be very unreliable. I'm not saying that the Imprudence result will necessarily prove unreliable, merely that it should be treated with a certain amount of caution rather than accepted entirely at face value. |
|
By:
Just block them and give us all peace Eric. You're acting like a big girls blouse. Or maybe you can just face the fact that you can't do without these people you argue with.
|
|
By:
^ Nail On Head
 |
|
By:
I have asked Betfair to allow posters to block specific forumites from reading your contributions ... the reverse of the current setup. That is the only way the stalking problems will be solved on here.
JamesP resorting to siding with my stalkers wont get you a run with Helleborine she has no chance based on her runs so far where anything decent she has raced has beaten her. Up your stake on Moonlight Cloud is my advice. |
|
By:
the thing is eric, a lot of us have taken some of the 8/1 on MC anyway, either as a cover bet, or a bit more. We're not silly and fully respect her chance.
|
|
By:
And some people who are clearly much shrewder than our Eric backed MC at 20/1+ - they didn't have to wait until the evidence was put right in front of their noses before opening their wallets (or in Eric's case getting his dad to put his pocket money on it)
|
|
By:
Thanks for the earlier reply JAMESP. The consensus seems to be a French winner again lol
|
|
By:
I spotted Moonlight Cloud last season
And waited til this season to back in at much reduced odds. Thankyou Timeform Eric for your expert opinion. And he wonders why people think he's a clueless guesser who only ever jumps on the nearest bandwagon and miraculously achieves huge odds on favourites time and again. Blocking all your 'stalkers' will leave you sat in front of a blank screen arguing with yourself. And the only one who throws out abuse is yourself. Blocking isn't the answer. There's far too much entertainment to be had here... |
|
By:
Moonlight Cloud taken over favouritism for the 1000 Guineas on here now.
|
|
By:
Helleborine very unlikely to go for the English 1000 according to Teddy Grimphorpe interviewed today, last matched 36 on here now 40 offered, Mdm Head-Maarek thinking she needs more time.
Moonlight Cloud would destroy her even further at Newmarket and probably others too sensible to go French Guineas with her. |